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[–][deleted] 10.1k points10.1k points  (538 children)

Just in time for everyone to have already been infected with omicron

[–]ThatsMyWifeGodDamnit 3008 points3009 points  (428 children)

And the next major variant of concern

[–]Jetberry 1182 points1183 points  (314 children)

I’m wondering if the next variant will basically be a descendent of omicron, so an omicron focused vaccine still might be useful?

[–]DumpTheTrumpsterFire 1053 points1054 points  (228 children)

It really depends on the outcome of Omicron, it could:

1) replace Delta as the dominant and therefore future strains would likely descend from it. aka Omicron replaces delta

2) Omicron wave spreads fast and quick, infects everyone, and we end up back at Delta (or whatever that has become). aka Omicron does not replace existing strains, but runs its course.

3) We get two lineages circulating, which is similar to the flu (A or B has two main lineages) In this scenario, vaccines will likely end up being mixtures (if that's possible with the mRNA type) much like our flu vaccines are 3-6 strains from the last wave.

[–]fromthewombofrevel 437 points438 points  (84 children)

I’m going with door number 3, Monty.

[–]Satanarchrist 129 points130 points  (14 children)

I'd prefer getting the goat to getting more covid though

[–]raygundan 19 points20 points  (9 children)

Some livestock can get it... but it appears we haven't done much testing with goats. Still, there's at least a fair chance you could have the goat AND more covid!

[–]caninehere 113 points114 points  (58 children)

Does #1 not seem more likely?

For Omicron, the US recorded its first case on Dec 1, by Jan 1 it was over 95% of all cases - it could very likely be at 99%+ by now (I believe some other countries have said 99%+ of all their cases are Omicron now).

For the Delta variant, the US recorded its first case in February 2021, and 5 months later it was still at 83% of cases, but eventually overtook the original completely.

[–]AlanUsingReddit 65 points66 points  (16 children)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#circulatingVariants

The data still hasn't updated since 1/1, which in the current environment, is somewhat absurdly out-of-date. The error bars are very large too. The difference between 98% and 99.9% could fundamentally alter the future course of the pandemic. Kind of crazy we don't have any real data beyond this.

[–]caninehere 41 points42 points  (11 children)

To some extent I don't blame them. Testing is so spotty and many people aren't even bothering now, just assuming they have COVID and isolating if they have the ability to do so (especially over the holidays).

[–]WillingnessOk3081 117 points118 points  (36 children)

re 2), Omicron seems to provide some benefit to your immune system against Delta (but the reverse has not been observed), so I don’t think this second scenario necessarily holds.

[–]BlameThePeacock 93 points94 points  (26 children)

None of the variants have had trouble re-infecting after enough time, there was evidence of OG COVID re-infecting the same person after 4-6 months.

I liked one way someone put it the other day, getting Omicron is a form of dirty-vax. It helps against the future, but it's far from perfect.

[–]Huey-_-Freeman 19 points20 points  (0 children)

there was evidence of OG COVID re-infecting the same person after 4-6 months.

Significantly more rare than Omicron reinfection though, according to everything I have read. Although I am not sure where the data comes from that breaks down pre-Delta covid by initial infection vs reinfection, or how comprehensive this data is. We were not even comprehensively tracking infections by vaccination status in the summer, something pretty important to seeing how the effectiveness of the vaccine changes over time.

[–]GreenStrong 48 points49 points  (5 children)

3a) in addition to the lineages circulating in humans, covid circulates in various wild populations like White Tail deer. It evolves quickly in each animal population, just like it did in humans, and new novel variants occasionally cross into the human population. This becomes a wild card in viral development.

Humans already caught a variant from minks, but it was early in the pandemic and it was a small evolutionary step that didn't particularly help it infect humans. Most adaptations to animal will make the virus less suited to humans, but evolution is random. This process could result in something terrible.

[–]Now__Hiring 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ok, so now you're saying I have to stop kissing deer? This has gone too far

[–]tweakingforjesus 45 points46 points  (19 children)

1) replace Delta as the dominant and therefore future strains would likely descend from it. aka Omicron replaces delta

Not sure how accurate this is. Delta became dominant in August but Omicron derived from a much earlier variant.

[–]mitchk98 10 points11 points  (22 children)

Is omicron a descendant from delta? Is the viral rna make up of omicron more similar to the OG Covid or to that of Delta?

[–]jmcgit 39 points40 points  (16 children)

Every report I've seen suggests it is descended from an earlier strain (perhaps OG), not Delta, but I don't know how authoritative that info is.

[–]Viruses_Are_Alive 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Influenza A and B are different Genera(Genus) of Orthomyxoviridae they are far more different from each other than MERS and SARS-CoV-2 which are the same Genus(Betacoronavirus), much less different clades SARS-CoV-2.

[–]teslaguy12 155 points156 points  (24 children)

It will almost certainly be. The most prolific variant will always have the highest chance of developing a functional mutation, because there are more hosts to mutate in.

Mutations happen at random, but selection follows the principles of nature.

So one could mutate to become more deadly, but if it didn’t also mutate to become more transmissible it won’t become the dominant variant. There are actually several named variants like this that were simply unable to take off. Every dominant variant so far has had a lower lung tissue proliferation speed and a higher bronchial speed, so we’re trending in the right direction for the “less deadly over time” theory of natural selection.

Edit: of course anything that isn’t hysterical panic gets downvoted here. Everyone talks about trusting science but nobody wants to discuss physiology and virology, only high-level public health statistics with countless uncontrolled confounding factors.

[–]ritchie70Boosted! ✨💉✅ 30 points31 points  (3 children)

Re. your edit, you're positive now. Many new comments starts out by going negative. I don't know why, but it's quite common, especially in certain subs like r/legaladvice.

[–]shmaltz_herring 36 points37 points  (24 children)

That's my thinking. It might provide better protection against future variants. Just like the original vaccine provided good protection against Delta still

[–]HappySlappyManBoosted! ✨💉✅ 24 points25 points  (22 children)

The problem is we don't know where the next variant will descend from. Omicron was a branch off of 2020 COVID. The next may be the same thing but with a delta or alpha lineage and make the omicron booster pointless.

[–]EncartaWow 12 points13 points  (8 children)

And the current vaccine is also for original Covid, so it's weird how it worked much better for Delta than Omicron. This to say that I agree, we just have no idea how things will be.

[–][deleted] 22 points23 points  (3 children)

Just reading everybodys back and forth I can completely tell we are fucked.

[–]a_n_c_h_o_v_i_e_s 5 points6 points  (1 child)

It's natural selection. Omicron is as successful is it is because it escapes current vaccine immunity. To your point though, that it came along now and not when Delta first popped up is just "lucky."

[–]Underbough 9 points10 points  (4 children)

This is basically how it played out with delta, no?

[–]spacejazz3K 149 points150 points  (32 children)

The speed of this thing has to be accelerating time-to-variant. We’ve given omicron a blank check for R&D

[–][deleted] 32 points33 points  (9 children)

I think it’s too soon to tell with Omicron how soon the next VOC will arrive. But interestingly, 4/5 of the VOCs were designated a VOC all within 5 months (alpha and beta were designated a VOC on December 18, 2020; Gamma on January 11, 2021 And Delta on May 11, 2021). The fifth VOC (Omicron) didn’t arise until 6.5 months after Delta was designated a VOC. So who knows when the next one will come, but it may not be that soon.

[–]Into-the-stream 43 points44 points  (7 children)

I remember reading a geologist explain why Yellowstone isn’t “due” for an eruption. That just because it “usually erupts every x years”, doesn’t mean it is “overdue”, because these things aren’t on a clock like that. They happen when they happen, and we can average, but past averages are not an indication of future timing. These things just don’t work that way.

I don’t know if that’s relevant here, but I wouldn’t assume the timing, with such a small data set, is any indication of any kind of pattern.

[–]Thosepassionfruits 11 points12 points  (10 children)

I wonder if they'll start producing multiple vaccines based on predicted variant just like with the flu?

[–]saiyanhajime 50 points51 points  (7 children)

They're not psychic - the prediction comes from variants that already exist, they usually target 3 variants, last year's had 4, but they will still offer protection for variants genetically similar to those targets.

It works with flu because flu is endemic globally and (almost) everyone has some immunity to it from past infection / born with immunity from their mother / flu vaccines. This isn't true of covid, yet, and relies on flus seasonal nature which we're not really 100% certain of with covid yet. It's clear covid is worse in winter, but will it behave the same as flu once cases are way lower and we're past a pandemic? Idk

It goes terribly wrong if a variant of flu is genetically dissimilar enough from what the majority of people have immunity to. There were a bad flu seasons in winter of 2014/15 and 2017/18. In 2017/18, the flu vaccine reduced the overall risk of seeking medical care by 40%. (Overall risk - as in, combined chance of catching and if you catch it, chance of it requiring medical attention.)

[–]wholewheatscythe 183 points184 points  (14 children)

At least they tried but, yeah, Omicron was just so wicked-contagious that there’s not enough time.

[–]ZloobaBoosted! ✨💉✅ 45 points46 points  (4 children)

Yeah. Easily. Here's to hoping it will protect better against the coming variants.

[–]AimingWineSnailz 19 points20 points  (11 children)

That's probably part of why it'll be so quick. With so many cases, phase 3 trials will be short.

[–]lefthighkick911 23 points24 points  (6 children)

since other variants evolve from previous variants and omicron is dominant variant, it will still provide a lot more protection than alpha

[–]AlexJRodBoosted! ✨💉✅ 19 points20 points  (0 children)

Omicron did not evolve from Delta.

[–]culculain 675 points676 points  (238 children)

My prediction is that this vaccine is not going to be terribly popular

[–][deleted] 702 points703 points  (200 children)

I mean, I literally just got my booster a week ago. So that means I got the initial shot. The follow-up shot. And now a booster.

Then I'm meant to get another shot later that's already out of date (and may or may not protect against the next variant) with little to no long term data on how all this stuff will interact with my body over time?

How many more shots are people who follow and trust science suppose to keep pumping into ourselves? At this point I'm worried and just tired of it.

EDIT: For all the people calling this "anti-vax", it's not. I am pro-vaccine and always have been. You have to be trolling, or you're completely stupid if that's your takeaway. I literally have all 3 shots and plan on getting the next one and every other one after that. I can be upset with the situation and still follow the science and listen to the experts, you get that, right?

[–]Dnny10bns 120 points121 points  (33 children)

You're not the only one. I've had vaccines all my life. But 4 in 12 months, come on...

[–]culculain 198 points199 points  (28 children)

even people who were super diligent about getting their shots as they became available are going to get burned out and since so many of us have already caught omicron despite those efforts... not gonna be a big seller I imagine

[–][deleted] 64 points65 points  (13 children)

Yeah that's another big issue for me right now too. Even if I wanted to get these vaccine upgrades as they came out, I'm already "off-rotation" by a couple months, so I'll always have to wait when they release.

And that feels like I'm attaching the seatbelt after I've already arrived at my destination.

[–]psych0ranger 117 points118 points  (10 children)

Add to that - that, in very unscientific terms, omicron is fucking itself out - its a covid 19 virus that's infecting people that have antibodies (vaccinated) against the spike protein and then giving them hybrid immunity which is a fully roided-out level of immunity.

If I'm not mistaken, this is how the Spanish flu ended (it mutated to be more infectious and less virulent and a whole ton more people got it and lived) - only a lot less killy because we have modern medicine and a new vaccine technology that allows us to create effective vaccines in a fraction of the time than it used to.

[–]squirrelhut 13 points14 points  (1 child)

I do agree with you… I’ve been extremely provax but honestly how many shots are we supposed to just keep getting? At some point people are going ti say, “hold on now, I’ve had a lot of these things”

I don’t know what the future holds but I’m glad I’m not the only one who’s thought this too

[–]lanfordrI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 27 points28 points  (3 children)

The other problem is that while we trust the science and want to protect ourselves, we are also very aware that these vaccine makers are for profit companies. Companies that would like nothing better than an endless string of vaccines to keep their profits ever increasing. So much of the science is still being tested and worked out. Trusting the science does not mean blindly doing whatever the drug companies tell us to do. Does no one remember the opioid crisis? One of the vaccine manufactures is literally one of the companies that over hyped/sold opioid and didn't give a shit, cause profits.

[–]Nikiaf 1936 points1937 points  (184 children)

I think we've reached the point where a tweaked vaccine is a good idea, whether or not Omicron even exists by the time it's made available. The current vaccines are based on the ancestral strain that essentially hasn't existed since some time in early 2021, so having a new vaccine that targets the mutations more commonly observed in the Delta/Omicron and eventual Pi/Rho/etc. variants. We now know enough to predict with some degree of confidence as to the direction in which further antigenic drift will occur.

[–]jsinkwitz[S] 632 points633 points  (37 children)

Correct. I don't know why there's cynicism against this given it's exactly how they should be approaching (just like circulating influenza shots).

[–][deleted] 62 points63 points  (1 child)

And we don’t have any data on what omicron re-infection looks like. If you can easily get it again, an omicron specific vaccine could be a huge relief.

[–]snildebenBoosted! ✨💉✅ 83 points84 points  (14 children)

The next VOC may not stem from Omicron and could possibly have more in common with another strain. It's an interesting thought that Omicron and Delta evolved separately. So for this type of focused vaccine to become really efficient I think we need more than just the two.

[–]da2PakaveliBoosted! ✨💉✅ 19 points20 points  (1 child)

I think we’re gonna end up with multivalent vaccines that try to predict problematic mutations. mRNA is suitable for that, they have way more time as opposed to the Influenza vaccine where production has to start in February. And then, maybe, some time down the road we’ll have universal Coronavirus vaccines. Work is already underway.

[–]jsinkwitz[S] 64 points65 points  (5 children)

They stated it'd be for known circulating strains. The more targets provided, the better the immune response will be.

[–]snildebenBoosted! ✨💉✅ 12 points13 points  (4 children)

Does that mean each vaccine dose would target multiple strains or would they be separate? I would like to see a combined vaccines to help reduce the distribution costs. In that case I would actually prefer that my fourth jab, may the time come, that contains 3 or 4 different VOCs or however many are around at the time. Provided of course that's feasible and actually gives the immune response I'm theorizing. As a child I used to get those combined shots for the measles and such, so I assume there's experience with efficacy of multiple vaccines combined.

[–]jsinkwitz[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Presumably like influenza where multi-valent single shot. If this moves to an annual process, this would be the way.

Like you state, MMR combines multiple vaccines in a single shot -- long term there is I believe Moderna working on influenza + coronavirus + RSV solution.

This is a great step.

[–]Morwynd78 11 points12 points  (2 children)

The Army is specifically working on one that targets multiple strains.

The SpFN vaccine, unlike other vaccines, uses “a soccer ball-shaped protein with 24 faces for its vaccine, which allows scientists to attach the spikes of multiple coronavirus strains on different faces of the protein,”

[–]awnawkareninah 310 points311 points  (98 children)

All well and good I suppose but asking people to get 4 shots in a year and keep doing all this is going to show diminishing returns for compliance, how could it not?

[–]Nikiaf 127 points128 points  (79 children)

At this stage we've moved beyond needing multiple doses per year. The initial vaccine schedule was two, which made sense. Then the booster was originally to combat waning antibody levels, especially in countries that stuck with the original 3 or 4 week dosing intervals. Then there was a bit of a mad dash to boost everyone as a way to combat Omicron; and this is where the diminishing returns started to kick in. But, to this point we've been using the original vaccine formulation based around the original virus sequencing. Moving to a tweaked one that better targets the specific mutations we're observing right now can in theory move the vaccines back to a level we had observed when Alpha was the dominant variant. What I mean by that is it's still plausible to move to a period where the vaccine offers near-perfect protection against infection and dramatically reduces transmission.

[–]awnawkareninah 146 points147 points  (76 children)

I'm not speaking to the actual medical or scientific evidence for the fourth booster. It makes sense to me how it's valuable. What I'm talking about is protocol fatigue even in people who have been firmly "trust the science" thus far. People are not getting more enthusiastic about these shots and masks and all that etc.

[–]brightcarparty 90 points91 points  (47 children)

I get you with this. The difference between Covid vaccines and Flu vaccines is that Covid vaccines have the potential to make you feel god awful. I’ve been getting flu vaccines annually for ages and have never felt more than run down for a few hours. But after skating by with my first and second Covid vax, the booster knocked me OUT for a solid two days.

People are going to balk at doing this regularly because of the sick leave risk alone. It’s important, and we need to do it, but it’s foolish to ignore that folks are going to be emotionally tapped out and/or economically unable to take the risk of time off.

[–]Routine_Left 13 points14 points  (0 children)

My reaction to all 3 vaccines has been almost non-existent. Just my arm hurt a bit, that's how I knew that I actually got something (I mean ... I hope i did).

But, beyond that, I don't think it's practically and economically feasible to vaccinate the planet once per year. It's just ... I don't see it happening. We're gonna need something more permanent, especially as new worse variants are likely to emerge in low vaccinated countries.

[–]BamSlamThankYouSirBoosted! ✨💉✅ 39 points40 points  (29 children)

If I couldn’t wfh I probably would’ve had to take 3 days off of work, and I got boosted on a Friday (have weekends off). I had pain/tenderness/a big ass bump for over a month and I’m pretty sure I could still find it if I tried. So agreed, a 4th booster is getting iffy. At that point boosted people are still catching Covid, why would I continue to get Covid vaccines?

[–]Fun-atParties 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is why I put off my booster. My second dose knocked me out for almost 2 full days and I didn't feel like I could go through that again with everything at work. Jokes on me though because I had to take almost 2 weeks off when I got covid

[–]WonkyHonky69 67 points68 points  (8 children)

I'm one of those people, a medical student who has been on the frontlines of the internet and in the real world trying trust people to get the vaccine, stay masked, etc. I'm fatigued from this whole process. Perhaps if Omicron was killing people to the degree that the OG or delta variants are/were, I would be more gung-ho. But for a strain that has proven to be much less virulent thus far, with such great infectivity that the omicron wave will likely be long over by then, what's the point?

The biggest threat to the health care system right now is continued collapse. You know what plays into that equally as much (I would argue)? Not paying RNs and ancillary staff members, leading to artificially reduced capacity. It's not giving resident physicians hazard pay, tempting more of them to leave to go into pharma/consulting. When you can't adequately staff hospitals, any increased bump in hospitalizations is going to be disastrous. This falls squarely on the shoulders of hospital admin and the army of middle management that's crowning achievements are sending three emails per week to justify the existence of their positions. Meanwhile the clinical staff, who you know, are actually doing something for patient care are doing the jobs of three people.

Pissing people off more won't help doctors, nurses, or any other front-facing patient care staff. People are already committing assault and battery against us, let alone trusting us. Gotta do damage control at some point and continuous vaccination for less severe strains and imposing restrictions is only going to worsen that.

[–][deleted] 8 points9 points  (4 children)

The point is to avoid antigenic original sin by providing a more diverse/polyclonal immune response especially as the ancestral strain is now significantly more irrelevant

Boosting with a 4th shot of the same sequence is likely to homogenize the immune recall and not exactly the best idea

[–]WonkyHonky69 3 points4 points  (3 children)

I absolutely agree, I shouldn't have phrased it as I did. More diverse antigen exposure would be a positive considering that omicron is not a descendent of the OG strain, and any future strains sharing many of the same mutations as omicron would more likely reduce transmissibility. From the PhD epidemiologists, it makes sense.

However I question if it would be worth the price for those of us on the ground. Patients have on aggregate lost so much trust in the medical community since the pandemic began. Part of that is from rampant misinformation, part of it is from the politicized nature of the pandemic, and part of the blame lies with the CDC and WHO for perceived missteps and poor scientific communication to the public. People want this to be over. They want to stop talking about it, thinking about it, and for life to resume as normal. Obviously that can't happen if we all just conveniently ignore it. But it pains me that "trust the science," has become a mocked phrase amongst those of particular political persuasions.

It's impossible to predict what will happen, after all, both Omicron and Delta were seemingly de novo rather than variants from any previously predominant strain. This situation is dynamic, and I'm really just expressing my thoughts as they are right now. Perhaps by March I'll be beating the drum for people to line up for the Omicron shot, perhaps not. Likely it'll be somewhere in the middle (for me at least), where people with previous assumed omicron infection, and younger healthy people I wouldn't push as hard, whereas I will for the immunocompromised and the elderly.

But I'm just a garden-variety med student, who isn't pursuing ID. Like most things out of my expertise, I'll defer to the true experts when the times comes and pick their brains a bit more.

[–][deleted] 4 points5 points  (2 children)

Thanks for the really thoughtful response.

This particular vaccine won't even be ready until June. It probably won't be needed until the Fall. That's a long time for people to cope with the situation, especially if we have a good Spring/Summer after omicron. I'm estimating here about 6 months of sterilizing immunity post-infection, which would give us until August/September before we'd even think about needing a boost.

People who today are totally fatigued and ready to throw a fuck-fit over yet another "booster" may feel differently when its presented as an annual vaccine alongside your flu shot.

[–]TrulyBobBarker 131 points132 points  (14 children)

“The current vaccines are based on the ancestral strain that essentially hasn't existed since some time in early 2021”

That’s just scary when you phrase it that way, ancestral and it was a year ago. I’m so tired of this virus…..

[–]caninehere 3 points4 points  (0 children)

While the term does make it feel weird, the original strain was also not gone by early 2021. It still existed and accounted for many cases in mid-2021 until Delta finally outcompeted it and then overtook it completely in late summer.

[–]out_caste 5 points6 points  (2 children)

It's also not a good way of describing the situation. The ancestoral strain vaccine is much closer to delta than an omicron vaccine would be. The vaccine only needs updating for omicron, and the benefit will not be seen in the other strains. Only in strains that descend from Omicron.

[–]rindthirty 31 points32 points  (1 child)

Tweaked vaccines are so very normal for influenza. I don't understand why this was all ignored over the past month in favour of assuming that 2 doses equaled "fully vaccinated", subsequently resulting in letting it rip. Morrison and Perrottet really really wanted those Christmas sales at any cost, didn't they?

[–]Double_Dragonfly9528 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Corona pi, coming to us just in time for Thanksgiving

[–]TheAlphaCarb0n[🍰] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

We now know enough to predict with some degree of confidence as to the direction in which further antigenic drift will occur.

Do you have any source for this?

[–]tod315 140 points141 points  (26 children)

Distribution will start in June

Pfizer is already manufacturing a Covid vaccine targeting the Omicron variant, which it expects to be ready to distribute by June, its chief executive, Albert Bourla, has said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jan/10/covid-live-news-40-of-israel-could-be-infected-in-current-wave-germany-to-study-rapid-antigen-test-reliability-for-omicron?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-61dc45ba8f08ed5dbdaf6332#block-61dc45ba8f08ed5dbdaf6332

[–][deleted] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

So uhmmm…is it gonna be like early to mid 2020 again until this new shot is distributed? I can’t deal with a third year of this.

[–][deleted] 21 points22 points  (6 children)

Germany is getting it already in February from BioNTech. The German company who created the vaccine that Pfizer sells under their name in the US.

[–]ILoveTheAtomicBombBoosted! ✨💉✅ 17 points18 points  (3 children)

Makes my decision for the 4th easier, thanks!

[–]Tombomsmom 7 points8 points  (1 child)

You should double up each time for efficency

[–]curlofheadcurlsI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 104 points105 points  (18 children)

Everything is Pfizer... There are so many other companies showing good results for all strains aren't there? What about them?

[–]jamiehernandez 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Pfizer spends the most on political contributions, lobbying and media contributions.

[–][deleted] 26 points27 points  (11 children)

Example: Novavax

[–]OTKLSFMEGAFAN 23 points24 points  (6 children)

Look at the phase III trials …strokes are an issue

[–]RWilliam 731 points732 points  (91 children)

The good thing about the Omicron vaccine isn’t that it will prevent people from getting Omicron; it will likely be too late. However, when the virus does mutate again, the Omicron vaccine will be most compatible to prevent infection because it will be most similar.

[–]darkchocoIateI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 204 points205 points  (8 children)

It's a good thing all the vaccine makers are also working on vaccines targeting the spike proteins in all possible mutations.

https://www.cnet.com/health/one-covid-vaccine-to-rule-them-all-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-army-vaccine/

[–]Shawnj2 57 points58 points  (4 children)

I thought that’s what the OG vaccine did as well. What’s the difference between those and this one? Is the spike protein in newer COVID-19 variants noticeably different?

[–]darkchocoIateI'm fully vaccinated! 💉💪🩹 84 points85 points  (2 children)

I'm far from a scientist so please excuse if I botch this. As far as I understand it, the OG vaccines were developed in response to the original strain before there were any mutations to study. Now that they've seen multiple mutations, they're understanding that one of the mutations, E484K, is responsible for the conditions causing evasion of antibodies triggered by the vaccines. Now that they know that, they can target E484K and other mutations.

Essentially, they see some consistency in all the mutations and can now respond to them with a more efficient vaccine.

[–]vote4any 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The existing vaccines all target only the spike of the original SARS-CoV-2 sequence published in January 2020. When we talk about "variants" we really only mean mutations of SARS-CoV-2 that are sufficiently different in the spike protein to act noticeably different. (There's a dozen variants of interest; there's hundreds of thousands of distinct SARS-CoV-2 sequences on Nextstrain.

The vaccine this article is about is replacing that one spike with the Omicron version of it (and possibly including the original spike and maybe the Delta spike in the mix). One direction research on universal coronavirus vaccines has gone is trying to present a lot of spikes at once (dozens?). I think the idea is the immune system figures out only what's common to them and therefore is able to recognize variants not included in the vaccine better.

[–]nocemoscata1992Boosted! ✨💉✅ 35 points36 points  (5 children)

Well it's still a good idea to get it after getting omicroned to prevent reinfections, like it was for those who got COVID before omicron

[–]TribalbobBoosted! ✨💉✅ 20 points21 points  (2 children)

Just recovered from Omicron, just got my booster yesterday - I'll take another shot in March, I don't care.

[–]nocemoscata1992Boosted! ✨💉✅ 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Got omicroned in mid December likely, although I never tested +ve I had symptoms 2 days before my dad did and he tested +ve. I'll get an omicron booster in the spring, maybe I'll wait until May.

[–]gogorath 15 points16 points  (20 children)

Also, not everyone literally is going to get it. And there's always the chance of reinfection.

[–][deleted] 1537 points1538 points  (227 children)

Lots of negativity here but the speed of science is incredible. If omicron had a high mortality rate and we had to lockdown to prevent mass death, we could’ve had a new vaccine/solution in three months. This will probably offer broader response against future variants too.

[–]goblueM 577 points578 points  (62 children)

I was just thinking on my drive to work - can you imagine how many lives have been saved by the vaccines already?

Imagine a scenario in which we had NO vaccine and we got ripped by Delta and then Omicron

It'd be apocalyptic

[–]MamaDragonExMoBoosted! ✨💉✅ 158 points159 points  (8 children)

Imagine a scenario in which we had NO vaccine and we got ripped by Delta and then Omicron

It'd be apocalyptic

I got Delta back in August...my whole family (minus the husband) did. We were fully vaxxed, except the then 11 year old, who didn't qualify at the time. It was rough...I had moderate Covid, as did my immune compromised teen. I can honestly say that I believe the vaccine saved my life and my doctor believes that, too. Pre-Covid, I was walking 5-6 miles most days and the day before I got my fever, had gone for a hike through Muir Woods. Post Covid, I was lucky to make it up my stairs to get to bed and once up the stairs, I would need to sit on my bed to recover for roughly 30 minutes. Even today, I deal with chronic fatigue that I'm trying to fight through. I can only imagine the outcome had I not been vaccinated. We expected it to hit our immune compromised teen hard...we did not expect it would hit me hard.

We are boosted now and thankful we could be. The now 12 year old is fully vaxxed as of December. Despite all of that and having had Covid just four months ago, we are doing our best to avoid Omicron...I've pulled the kids from school for the short term and they are doing assignments from home. We live in a state where people simply don't care. I'll thankfully take a vaccine specific to Omicron if it means more protection.

[–]Gets_overly_excited 99 points100 points  (8 children)

I would hope that we would find a way to protect people better in that case, but I know we would totally fail at that and millions more would have died.

[–]lukeCRASH 37 points38 points  (7 children)

I'd shamelessly wear a p100 respirator, I don't know, maybe everywhere.

[–][deleted] 95 points96 points  (23 children)

It would probably be on a par with Spanish flu at least in the developed world. We’d basically all have to accept a massive mortality wave such as delta in India.

[–]gme2damoonnBoosted! ✨💉✅ 63 points64 points  (12 children)

Yep, we would just default to 1918, which is what we defaulted to in the last pandemic in 2009 for H1N1. Which is "Sorry but everyone's catching it lol good luck."

[–]zbaruch20 56 points57 points  (9 children)

I mean that seems to be how we're currently dealing with Omicron...

[–]gme2damoonnBoosted! ✨💉✅ 28 points29 points  (5 children)

Yep, vaccines/boosters work.

[–]FawltyPython 30 points31 points  (2 children)

One major difference is that the mortality with Spanish flu skewed younger. Here, with the older skew from covid, you get lots of folks whose parents and grandparents are already dead arguing that we need to let it rip and open bars and schools because those old folks are going to die of something else soon anyway. Edit: to be clear, I think this line of thought is reprehensible.

[–]ritchie70Boosted! ✨💉✅ 20 points21 points  (0 children)

This (scholarly) article is pretty interesting about that. There are a bunch of reasons they speculate might have caused the age-based mortality differentiation.

(ETA... Rewritten based on my understanding to summarize:) 1. Older people may have acquired protective immunity from some earlier influenza outbreak that was genetically similar. 1. Tuberculosis among young men who served in WW I. 1. Overactive immune response ("cytokine storm") which is more likely in young adults. 1. Previous exposure to the 1889-90 pandemic strain may have interfered with 1918 immune response.

[–]coffeesippingbastard 60 points61 points  (12 children)

people are really missing this point.

3 months incredibly quick.

MRNA is a huge game changer in vaccine development. To just bang out a new vaccine in a week or two and immediately jump into trials is shockingly fast.

[–]Positive-Vase-Flower 11 points12 points  (1 child)

people are really missing this point.

Thats the problem. Most people dont give a fk about science or how insane it is. I recently was totally hyped about the Webb telescope. I thought in my naivety that everyone was at least a bit hyped about this. But in my environment most didnt care at all and only knew it because it was in the news once.

Same with the vaccines. The majority, even the people who support vaccines, only hears "another vaccine" and "another shot" and they get tired of it.

[–]SmilingMonkey5 26 points27 points  (17 children)

Agreed that scientists are the heroes of the year (how did Elon Musk get that honor in this era?). I think we are just seeing a shift from optimism to realism (2 years of a pandemic can do that) but that shift when veiled in sarcasm can look like “negativity”. Additionally- I am NOT a scientist, but…lay people are seeing the constant shift in the scientific community as they learn from new data. Most of us have never experienced this in real time. mRNA is still so new to us. For instance; have you ever heard of a “break through” Polio case? Nope. Ditto with MMR. For skeptics, this real time process lends credence to doubt and fear. I have found it really interesting and amazing to watch but not without it’s occasional frustrations. As we temper our expectations and keep trying to mitigate while also keeping up with the science we may read as negative😏

[–]brianbowlesnj 64 points65 points  (1 child)

He’s also on the board at Reuters.

[–]Tmoore188 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Fucking barf.

[–]jsinkwitz[S] 236 points237 points  (3 children)

Bourla said the vaccine will also target the other variants that are circulating. He said it is still not clear whether or not an omicron vaccine is needed or how it would be used, but Pfizer will have some doses ready because there are governments that want it ready as soon as possible.

This sounds like it'll be a replacement shot that targets everything in current circulation. Smart.

[–]AlwayssunnyinarizonaBoosted! ✨💉✅ 57 points58 points  (0 children)

Ready as in "produced and added to a vial" or ready as in "approved and available at your local CVS."

It's most certainly the former; what we really need is to cut the red tape to allow these updates to be implemented as quickly as influenza vaccines have been in the past.

Accelerated approval, on the other hand, is based on adequate and well‐controlled clinical trials establishing that the vaccine has an effect on a surrogate endpoint that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. The FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) considers the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody response an acceptable surrogate marker that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit of inactivated influenza vaccines.3 Approval under this pathway is subject to the post‐marketing requirement that the sponsor conduct adequate and well‐controlled clinical studies to verify and describe the clinical benefit of the vaccine, that is, protection from influenza disease.

In other words, we need an accelerated mechanism whereby traditional neutralization assays are sufficient for accelerated approval. I predict we have just that by the end of the year or early next year, especially if omicron isn't the end game some think it is.

[–]bigsmokel 16 points17 points  (9 children)

Wait so what was the point in the booster I just had?

[–]jizzjet 17 points18 points  (0 children)

I'm tired man ....

[–]zDavzBR 26 points27 points  (4 children)

Hopefully the megatron variant won't show up before that

[–]Otacon56 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I think i'll only be 3 more jabs away from a free pizza with this one.

[–]JAGarcia92 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I’m sorry…what?

[–]kashamorph 13 points14 points  (3 children)

I straight up laughed out loud reading this headline holy shit.

[–]MD_Yoro 48 points49 points  (46 children)

So should I get the booster or wait for new shot?

[–]Bill_Bob_506 8 points9 points  (2 children)

It won’t be ready for distribution for five months.

[–]vzipped_a_gopherBoosted! ✨💉✅ 87 points88 points  (39 children)

Booster now. There is an active threat. From the article:

Booster shots are up to 75% effective at preventing symptomatic infection, according to the study.

[–]MuscaMurum 23 points24 points  (2 children)

Just in time for Pi day.

[–]Empty_Transition4251 61 points62 points  (7 children)

Do they have to do phase 3 trials again? If so now would be a perfect time, with the disease so prevalent in the community, results would not take long.

[–]KingBowserCorp 76 points77 points  (12 children)

What a joke this has all become

[–]tschatman 26 points27 points  (20 children)

Does that mean that the vaccination we have right now doesn’t work?

[–]OTKLSFMEGAFAN 40 points41 points  (30 children)

Eh I’ll pass…double vaxxed , boosted and with all that the boost immunity only last 10weeks and you want me to juice up a 4th time. Nope

[–]Motor_Ad8064 33 points34 points  (19 children)

How they make it so fast

[–][deleted] 71 points72 points  (4 children)

Because they only need to change a different part of the mRNA component which comes from Omicron.

[–]umsrslyBoosted! ✨💉✅ 28 points29 points  (0 children)

#NotTheOnion

[–]Yyes85 17 points18 points  (3 children)

So why tf am I getting a booster? Mofo im gonna get like 10 shots for one bullshit ass virus? Gtfo, and im pro vaccination!

[–]gutterguy07 9 points10 points  (0 children)

How about an at home medicine to help with symptoms.

[–]koreanese2 7 points8 points  (1 child)

Vax is cool and all but media literally brought out the CEO of Moderna and Pfizer for step by step interview with not a slightest push back. It was pretty much a advertisement on news. They even had stock prices flashing as they were interviewing.

[–]LordYamz 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Time to bring in more MONEY and then when Zelta variant comes out in 2023 they will have amassed over 150 billion since the pandemic started

[–]TeacherGuy1980 21 points22 points  (9 children)

Think how this would be if this happened a hundred years ago. We will be going through all these variants and we wouldn't even really know they were different. It would just be called COVID.

We are now seem to be settling on a super contagious variant that is hard to believe can be outcompeted. If a vaccine was developed years after this then we wouldn't be having to have so many boosters.

This is a unique situation since scientists are actively developing this for a virus changing over time instead of a virus settling into a form and then vaccinating post pandemic.

[–]hausdesize 14 points15 points  (1 child)

I mean…even we tri-vaxxed are in agreement that we’re done with this shit, right?

[–]Alternative-Estate87 7 points8 points  (0 children)

You know maybe I’ll take a seasonal every couple of years, but 4 vaccines in about a year for the same thing is insane

[–]The_Jeremy_O 78 points79 points  (20 children)

So it takes roughly 100 days for them to tweak the vaccine for a new variant.

I do not for the life of me understand why the CDC and Fauci keep saying “no need for new vaccine, the current one works fine” when it obviously doesn’t. Especially considering we have the option for a vaccine that works better.

Makes no sense to me

[–]repo_code 51 points52 points  (6 children)

It's the Osborne effect -- the same reason Apple doesn't announce a new iPhone until the day you can buy it.

If public health officials pre-announced Vaccine 2.0 for Omicron, they would have a hard time getting people to take the existing vaxes. It'd be a shame because the existing vaxes are effective and are saving a huge number of lives and could save many more if more folks would take it.

EDIT: To be clear, public health officials have been truthful and transparent about this. When they say that they're waiting on data about safety and efficacy of new vaxes under development, of course they are. That's what you do before giving shots to everyone.

I'd like to distance myself from those here who accuse public health officials of lying. When they emphasize truths that are actionable today (Get your shot, protect your loved ones) over those that are still coming into focus, it's honest and it's noble.

[–]The_Jeremy_O 4 points5 points  (1 child)

Good point. It would be nice if they’d tell pharma behind the scenes to make new ones. We could’ve had a Delta vaccine by like July. Would’ve saved a lot of lives

[–]Hushmode16 15 points16 points  (4 children)

Alright I’m over it. This is a joke.

[–]RedditRage 262 points263 points  (73 children)

What's with the negativity? The virus is going to mutate whether Pfizer creates a vaccine or not. This notion of "endless vaccines" is not a fault of the companies, but a fault of a virus.

[–]DrunkandIrrational 145 points146 points  (48 children)

I think it’s the fact that we’re putting effort into variant specific vaccines that become obsolete 6 months later instead of trying to find a solution that scales better or provides protection against future variants. Just seems like a bit of a money grab.

[–]Wambo74 39 points40 points  (14 children)

It's not like as soon as the virus mutates, the existing vaccines have become worthless. With boosters the current vaccines developed against the original strain are still as much as 80% effective. As they retune the vaccines to be more specific against today's strains, can't we expect them to still be worthwhile as newer variants appear?

If you want to wait for a magic pill that will be effective for all future variants -- you may have quite a wait in front of you. I'll settle for their current best efforts...and be grateful for it.

[–]rocketwidgetBoosted! ✨💉✅ 27 points28 points  (1 child)

The mRNA vaccines were based on the original strain and yet they still worked against Alpha, Beta, Delta, etc. Even against Omicron, 3 doses reduce hospitalizations/deaths roughly the same as 2 doses vs. original.

I wish the vaccines were perfect too, but making just a great vaccine isn't exactly trivial, nevermind a perfect one. For perspective here, it's not just Pfizer, every vaccine maker in the world tried to optimize results, none did better than mRNA.

[–]Thorking 9 points10 points  (2 children)

eh when the CEO announces it, it comes across as $$$ motivated. I get that it's needed and wonderful but blehhhhhh

[–]pacificthaw 8 points9 points  (3 children)

Crazy how everyone is now agreeing that using the old vaccine developed for Alpha is nonsensical in the current environment. Crazy how literally just yesterday, and every day for the past few months, you've all been mass downvoting any comment that expressed the sentiments being expressed by THIS thread's top comments.

[–]FullSnackDeveloper87 4 points5 points  (1 child)

I can’t believe my eyes either. I’ve slowly watched Reddit shift from nuking anything questioning vaccines to those being the top comments.

[–]MrFunktasticc 29 points30 points  (18 children)

Ima be real with you. I quarantined very strictly, masked, social distanced, disinfected, got the vaccine, scheduled the booster. Had to push the latter because I’m pretty sure I have Omicron now. Honestly the anti vax morons are sounding more reasonable every day. Th CDC scaling back quarantine time to pacify businesses is the final nail in my coffin. This is getting out of hand. Downvote away, I can’t handle this anymore.

[–]SerpentineApotheosis 11 points12 points  (16 children)

It's ok, you can be skeptical of this particular vaccinee without being against vaccines as a whole

[–]Osofrontino 48 points49 points  (19 children)

I really don't think I will be putting another booster or vaccine.

[–]boiler725 14 points15 points  (1 child)

Movie Narrator : it wasn't soon enough and many more were skeptical

[–]jspek666 43 points44 points  (7 children)

Yea that’s gonna be a no. 3 shots within a year, I’m good. Besides the we’ll be on some other variant by then.

[–]bromygod203 53 points54 points  (15 children)

Is there any science about how 4 vaccines in 12-18 months affects your immune system? I got 2 vaxs and a booster but at what point do I over vaccine and ruin my natural immune response? Not against vaccines or science just thinking out loud

Edit - every comment is teaching me something I did not know and I appreciate all of you

[–]bobbyelliottuk 5 points6 points  (2 children)

The problem is going to be how long the protection lasts since the original vaccines started to reduce in efficacy after a few months, showing significant waning after 6 months. Our original hopes of herd immunity evaporated once the extent of waning was known. Hopefully, new vaccines will last longer.

[–]kcreal07 6 points7 points  (1 child)

Of course. Followed by bomicron, jokicron and yournextcovidshoticron. 🤦🏻‍♂️

[–]StairwayToLemon 36 points37 points  (7 children)

So what was the 3rd jab all about then

[–]ThickQueen420 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It protects you 1% more and only lasts 10 weeks so yeah $$$

[–]Eurynomestolas 10 points11 points  (0 children)

cash grab

[–]CottonRaves 13 points14 points  (9 children)

Too fucking late. Already caught it. Tested positive this morning. Even with being very careful with all precautions.

[–]Aaappleorange 34 points35 points  (3 children)

Nah, I think I’ll pass on this one thanks. I’m doubled vaxxed and boosted, this is getting ridiculous now.

[–]G_i_r_a_f_f_e 70 points71 points  (12 children)

There’ll already be a new variant by then

[–]jsinkwitz[S] 80 points81 points  (10 children)

Perhaps, but the point of this is that any future variant would be based on an evolution of existing circulating (i.e. most likely Omicron and to a lesser extent Delta, and even smaller extent a few others). The closer the genomic match, the better the protection would likely be.

Additionally, by including multiple variant spike protein designs, the immune system will be even more optimized to prevent severe disease by recognizing the pattern faster and attacking more appropriately.

[–][deleted] 18 points19 points  (1 child)

Remember there’s already research from SA that omicron infection offers broad protection against delta.

[–]IndianbroBoosted! ✨💉✅ 63 points64 points  (78 children)

How many times are they going to release boosters. We can't get people to even take a current booster shot, you really think everyone will take a new one? Also as mentioned, this is a catch up play, the virus will have new strains by then. Sure it's better than nothing but I think people have given up and will be even more reluctant to take it

[–]r0xxon 55 points56 points  (23 children)

I'm in this demographic. I'm not high risk and not going to boost every 6 months or new variant.

[–]InstruNaut 39 points40 points  (57 children)

You guys are ready to take 2 vaccines per year?

[–]Simplyobsessed2 9 points10 points  (1 child)

I've had three already I don't really want another one.

[–]No-Cryptographer2208 29 points30 points  (17 children)

So why are we all getting boosters then?

[–]AzHighways 50 points51 points  (22 children)

I'm done. I've had 3 now

No more vaccines here. Let the cards fall where they may

[–]gatorbait1964 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What about the next 23 variants ?

[–]Nip_Sock 4 points5 points  (0 children)

So why are countries saying to take the first vaccine for the 3rd time ?,

Preferably one from each manufacturer,

I am really worried about this sniffle variant (Omicron).