After being blessed with a Scyther nest after the Bug Out event, some friends and I decided to see what we could find. There was some initial speculation that rates were boosted after the event as people were finding shinies quite regularly, even though the nest itself isn't that big. Results are below (numbers only include checks AFTER Bug Out):

Account 1: 112 checks, 2 shinies
Account 2: 127 checks, 2 shinies
Account 3: 178 checks, 4(!) Shinies
Account 4: 56 checks, 1 shiny
Account 5: 85 checks, 0 shiny

Other locals have reported shinies too, but I don't have number of checks (although reportedly quite low).

I know it's not a big enough sample size to determine the actual shiny rate, but it's definitely not the standard 1/450 and may be in line with the 'rare spawn' shiny rate used by Pineco, Aerodactly and potentially Feebas.

Just as a final point: during our little experiment, we noticed a couple of other posts here on Silph Road from people who were suspecting a similar post-event boost, but they seem to have been deleted. Hmm. If anyone else would like to contribute data points here, it would be great!

Edit: thankyou for Gold, kind soul. :)

I'm 100% convinced this mythical creature does not exist!

Before this event I had hatched close to 150 10km eggs not one aerodactyl. Since the event I've hatched roughly 125 2km eggs still no aerodactyl. So the question, is there some kind of ritual I'm missing out on or are there Pokemon gods I need to be praying to?

My real question, is there a specific biome with a greater chance at dropping one right now or does it not really matter during this event? Any insight is welcome?

Edit: Can confirm he is real. Girlfriend just hatched one from pre event 10k. Jealous as hell!

TL;DR

• Mega Aerodactyl is currently the best Rock-type attacker in raids.

• Mega Aerodactyl is the best improvement you can make to a single slot of your Rock squad (even in shortmanning), compared to a single L50 Pokemon or even a single Shadow Rampardos/Rhyperior in future.

• However, it still only saves about 5-10 seconds of your total raid time (regardless of lobby size), and you still need Mega Energy constantly.

• In the long term, Mega Aerodactyl will be outclassed by both new Megas and new Shadows. However, these better options might take a long time to be released.

A late Happy New Year to everyone! Today we'll be looking at my favorite Pokemon, Aerodactyl - or more precisely, its Mega Evolution.

As a reminder, Mega Aerodactyl will be in Mega Raids from Friday, January 7, 2022, to Tuesday, February 1, 2022. During this time, Heatran, Genesect Shock and Regice will take turns to be in T5 Raids. That itself might be a motivation to raid Mega Aerodactyl for some players, since the legendaries are meh (and Genesect still can't be shiny).

But is it actually worth raiding? Or is it just another mega dex entry and everyone should wait patiently for its Mega Energy to be in field research? Let's find out.

I know some people hate megas with a passion (understandable), and if that describes you, feel free to ignore this post.

Base Stats

MEGA AERODACTYL

• Attack: 292

• Defense: 210

• HP: 190

• Fast moves: Steel Wing, Bite, Rock Throw

• Charged moves: Ancient Power, Iron Head, Hyper Beam, Rock Slide, Earth Power

Mega Aerodactyl may not have the sky high attacks of Mega Gengar and Charizard Y, and it's even slightly lower than Rampardos (295 attack).

However, it has almost twice as much bulk as Rampardos, and a better fast move in Rock Throw. RT/RS is actually the best non-Rock-Wrecker rock-type moveset.

(It should also be clear from here that Mega Aerodactyl is not worth using as a flying type.)

DPS/TDO Charts

While Rampardos still has higher DPS, Aerodactyl has greater DPS³*TDO which better estimates in-battle performance. And that's without even considering mega boost.

There are a few other interesting observations here, but we'll discuss them together with the simulation data below.

Simulations

There are 14 Tier 5 raid bosses (Gen 1-6) where Rock is one of the optimal attacking types. I calculated the Pokebattler estimator values for all the attackers above against each boss, and took average of them. The detailed spreadsheet is at the end of this post.

Here are the average estimator values (lower is better).

• Mega Diancie: 1.690 (unreleased)

• Shadow Rhyperior: 1.802 (unreleased)

• Shadow Rampardos: 1.804 (unreleased)

• Mega Tyranitar: 1.861 (unreleased)

• Mega Aerodactyl: 1.896

• Shadow Tyranitar: 2.014

• Rampardos: 2.064

• Rhyperior: 2.071

Without considering the Mega Boost yet, here are the implications for a raider in January 2022:

• Mega Aerodactyl is now the best Rock-type attacker in raids.

  • Rampardos technically has higher DPS than Mega Aerodactyl, but it lacks too much bulk.

• Raids where Mega Aerodactyl shines more than average: Ho-Oh, Regice, Tornadus-T, Yveltal.

  • These raid bosses typically have grass, fighting or ground charged moves, which traditionally give rock types trouble - but not to Mega Aerodactyl.

  • Even against bosses not listed, Mega Aerodactyl still does great and typically better than Rampardos and Rhyperior.

• Raids where Mega Aerodactyl struggles a bit: Articuno, Zapdos, Moltres, Thundurus-I.

  • These are scenarios where Mega Aerodactyl's performance is dragged closer to Rampardos and Rhyperior, occasionally even outperformed by them.

  • These raid bosses (other than Moltres) typically have ice or electric moves that put Mega Aerodactyl at a disadvantage.

    • As for Moltres, Rampardos is just too OP against it.

(BTW, shoutout to Shadow Tyranitar which has been ignored in almost every discussion. Although I will ignore it too in the rest of this article for rather obvious reasons.)

How much does a mega actually help?

First, one thing is clear: regardless of the lobby size, bringing in a Mega Aerodactyl is (almost) always better than not having one. Unlike tanky megas like Steelix and Altaria that rely on the mega boost for other players, Mega Aerodactyl does enough damage itself without even needing the mega boost.

But given that Mega Aerodactyl won't be permanent, is it even worth grinding the energy for it?

Here, I run simulations of multiple Best Friends using full teams of L40 Rampardos or Rhyperior, with the only difference being one player sometimes leads with a Mega Aerodactyl instead (and follows with 5 Rampardos or Rhyperior).

The 3 bosses are chosen to include one where Mega Aerodactyl is at an advantage (Ho-Oh), one where its gap with non-megas is close to average (Tornadus-I), and one where it's at a disadvantage (Articuno). Rejoin timer is 15 seconds, with no dodging.

So Mega Aerodactyl saves 4-6 seconds in duos, and 8-9 seconds in bigger lobbies.

• Note this is the actual timer in battle, so the TTW-equivalent would be 10-12 and 40-45 seconds respectively (multiplied by the number of players).

Only less than 10 seconds saved? Hold on - we're only changing a single Rampardos or Rhyperior to Mega Aerodactyl.

How about we instead change it to a L50 Rhyperior or a hypothetical Shadow Rhyperior? After all, shadows and L50 seem like more popular PvE improvements than megas...

Here, one player leads with a mega/shadow/L50, followed by 5 L40 Rhyperiors. Other players (all Best Friends) use 6 L40 Rhyperiors. The baseline for comparison is everyone using L40 Rhyperiors, and numbers are reductions in battle time.

What this table shows: Compared to a single shadow or L50 Pokemon, a Mega is by far the best way to improve a single member of your team (at least in this specific case of rock types).

• The difference is unsurprisingly greatest in big lobbies, where improving a single Pokemon of yours contributes a measly 1 second to the raid, yet Mega Aerodactyl saves everyone 8-9 seconds.

• But even with just 2 raiders, Mega Aerodactyl still has almost twice the time savings as a single shadow.

  • And don't forget Shadow Rhyperior is supposed to be better than Mega Aerodactyl!

• This is with no dodging. I expect megas to be even more effective if you dodge.

This changes if you run a full team of shadows or L50s. But given how expensive those teams are, Mega Aerodactyl will still have a lot of value.

Wrapping up this part: Mega Aerodactyl is the best improvement you can make to a single slot of your Rock squad (even in shortmanning). However, it still only saves less than 10 seconds of your total raid time, and Mega Energy still doesn't grow from trees.

Is the performance improvement of 5-9 seconds worth mega evolving and walking for more energy? You decide.

Type alignment?

One common issue with most megas is that other players may not use the same type as you do. Using a Mega Gengar? Others are using dark types. Using a Mega Charizard Y against steel? Others are using fighters. While they still get 10% mega boost, it's a lot less than the 30% with type alignment.

The good news is: If you're using Mega Aerodactyl, it's actually quite likely that other players are also using rock types!

• Out of the 14 raid bosses that rock are good against, 3 have a double weakness to rock (Articuno, Moltres, Ho-Oh). Anyone who cares about using the right team will use rock types.

• Another 3 are electric/flying types (Zapdos, Thundurus-I, Thundurus-T). Unless other players have full teams of Shadow Mamoswine, the best rock types will likely be their most optimal counter, especially Rhyperior.

• Against the remaining bosses, rock types do face competition from electric, water and steel types. But thanks to its CD, Rhyperior in particular is still a lot more common than these superior options which are often legendaries.

Future considerations

You might want to refer back to the DPS and simulations sections for this, but basically: Mega Aerodactyl will face some stiff competition in the long term, both from other Megas and from future Shadows.

• Mega Diancie will be the best rock mega and the best rock attacker by far, if it retains the current moveset in the Game Master.

• Mega Tyranitar will also offer a small improvement over Mega Aerodactyl, with similar DPS but much higher TDO (which is especially important for megas).

• Whenever Shadow Rampardos or Shadow Rhyperior (with CD move) are released, they will instantly become better options than Mega Aerodactyl and Mega Tyranitar, if the mega boost is not considered. Megas will still do more damage because of the boost, but they become a lot less valuable.

One factor to consider is that at the current rate of Mega and Shadow releases, all the options above will likely take a long time to be released - at least months, most likely years. So if you do invest in a Mega Aerodactyl, you will likely get enough utility out of it over time.

Conclusion (or lack thereof)

I do not intend to make a judgment call that's applicable for everyone - Mega Evolution is a controversial subject, after all. Some people will do it just for the bonus candies alone, while some absolutely despise megas.

But I do think Mega Aerodactyl is one of the more exciting megas among those introduced in the past year. It is not Mega Charizard Y or Mega Gengar kind of OP, but it does provide a good deal of upgrade - a bit better than Mega Manectric among electrics, but with a lot more utility. If you don't mind using megas for more damage, this is definitely a mega you should seriously consider. Doesn't necessarily mean everyone should be raiding for Mega Energy, but unless Niantic pulls another Mega Steelix, I don't think you would regret it that much.

This analysis also raises an interesting question: How much does using a mega anything actually help in raids, in terms of beating the timer? And how much does one player improving their team (or a single Pokemon) help in general - is it also "just 5-10 seconds" as shown here, and how much more would it cost to get a more substantial improvement? I'm hoping to do a dedicated analysis on megas on that matter, but that's quite low on my priority list and I doubt I would have time for it. But if anyone wants to take this idea and explore further, feel free to go ahead.

[Appendix] Detailed Pokebattler estimator values of relevant Rock attackers against T5 bosses weak to rock

All simulations use Level 40, best friend, no dodging, 15s rejoin.

Have you caught Aerodactyl? I live in a busy city with an incredible variety of biomes. I spend a lot of time hunting, and picking up eggs ( I use incubators). I have hatched tons of 10k eggs, multiple Lapras, multiple Chansey, multiple Kabuto.. but no Aerodactyl.

I have continued to believe for a long time that egg results are very influenced by local biomes at the pokestop you get them at.

Where have you found Aerodactyl, what sorts of pokemon also inhabit the area? I go and search downtown too, and still nothing.

Aerodactyl is the only non-legendary non-regional pokemon that I am missing in my pokedex.

EDIT: Love the feedback! you guys rock! It seems that Clefairy Biomes and mountain biomes are an overwhelming favorite so far, for places near where it is found. Please think if this applies to your situation as well, as more information is always great!

EDIT 2: More evidence may be anecdotal, especially if it's a nest, as opposed to a biome, but if it is a biome (has been there through multiple migrations)... what sorts of characteristics are in these Clefairy/Dragonite/Aero biomes? Is it near water? far from water? does it vary? Low elevation? Rural? Urban? I'd imagine that too much detail on these biomes could delve into some information that is dubious, but for such a rare pokemon, I think it's worth the extra pontificating. Thanks again guys!!!!!

EDIT 3: For those that believe that nearby names of areas could possibly influence the biomes of the nearby pokemon, I did see someone mention they saw two at airports. The idea of "Aero"dactyl spawning near an airport is something that -- especially if it's not near a clefairy biome, could go a long way in solving a possible long thought theory that local areas and landmarks can influence biomes. I'll be checking the Jacksonville International Airport, and probably Orlando and Tampa at some point in the near future.

Day 39:

Day 40:

Seriously it is beast...it has serious punch. I tried a few Pokémon super effective against but they took serious chuck of hp away.