The Down Ticket Tidal Wave

—Dave In Texas

It's been discussed here and there, but let's take a moment to ponder the significance of what happened in Tuesday's elections at the state level.

Death and destruction, that's what happened.

680 seats picked, bigger than the 94 Republican wave (472), bigger than the post-Watergate Democrat wave (628).

Not since 1928 have Republicans controlled this many state legislatures.

Here's a pretty map.

Ace hit the numbers early Wednesday morning. The ramifications are going to be felt for years, first with post-census redistricting. States that have been growing in population are largely in Republican hands (for example, Texas will pick up at least 3 House seats and very likely a 4th, while California is going to lose seats for the first time in 50 years).

So, barring the (fewer than we had before) Dem state reps high-tailing it for Oklahoma to avoid a vote on new district maps, this is, what's the word I'm lookin for?

Friggin huge.

Is Nancy Pelosi Really Thinking Of Hanging On To Leadership Position?

—DrewM.

Maybe the gift that keeps on giving, will give some more.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is gathering input from colleagues as she weighs whether to stay in Democratic leadership and run for minority leader after losing control of the House Tuesday night, according to two senior Democratic aides and one lawmaker.

Pelosi has made some of these contacts herself but has had surrogates reach out to other Democrats to test her support level within the caucus.

For members of her inner circle, the calls suggest that she may not be ready “to turn the keys over” while she’s gauging the more general feelings of Democrats outside her tightest clutch of backers, according to one of the aides.

A Democrat who spoke to Pelosi today said she is "just trying to figure out the mood of the caucus." This member told her "to do what she wants, I support you."

I could have sworn I heard her yell "palomino! PALOMINO!" the other night but maybe not.

It actually makes some sense. Those pesky Blue Dogs who didn't like her are gone and all that's left is her hard left base. Sure she'll lose the plane as Minority Leader but she'd still get a car and driver. She may not want to go cold turkey on tax payer goodies.

The Third Trend in Initial Unemployment Filings: The Healing Begins

—Geoff

The Department of Labor released the initial unemployment claims data this morning: claims rose to 457,000, from last week's adjusted 437,000. Here's where that sits on the chart:

I call the fall from the peak in March '09 the "First Trend." It was a dramatic drop in initial claims, paralleled by a similarly dramatic slowing in job loss. The "Second Trend" started in November 2009, shortly after the Dems announced their health care reform bill. The improvement immediately stopped, and employment stagnated for about 9 months.

But the overall trend since about mid-August has been slightly downward, i.e., improving - I'm calling this the "Third Trend" because I totally rock when it comes to naming things. It's a barely perceptible improvement, but enough to suggest that unless another economic hit comes our way, the worst of unemployment is behind us.The question is: "Why? What changed in mid-August?"

Well, I have a theory, and it goes a little something like this:

What you're looking at is the improvement in initial unemployment claims vs. the prediction of GOP seat gains in the House. As you see, the improvement in initial unemployment claims was approaching zero, but in mid-August things started improving again. The remarkable thing is that this was just after pundits started predicting that the GOP would take control of the House.

So as long as it appeared that the Dems would retain control of the House, the healing of the job situation slowed to almost zero. As soon as the GOP's fortunes waxed, the healing started climbing back up. Businesses realized that the cavalry had finally arrived.

What does this all mean to you? Well, had the First Trend continued, we would have seen the unemployment rate start dropping last summer. Thanks, Nancy!! If the GOP hadn't taken back the House, we'd probably have seen the Second Trend continue indefinitely, as predicted by Geithner. But if the Third Trend continues, I think we'll start seeing recovery much sooner.

If only we'd taken the Senate, too.

Obama to Businesses: "I really love you guys. Really. Now hire somebody!! Please"

—Geoff

The President finally realizes that he can't make it without support by, and support for, American businesses. But does he really get it? I don't think so:

...in his post-“shellacking” news conference Wednesday, Mr. Obama came close to conceding the chamber’s main argument, that American businesses have concluded — wrongly, in Mr. Obama’s view — that his policies are antibusiness.
...
“And so I’ve got to take responsibility in terms of making sure that I make clear to the business community as well as to the country that the most important thing we can do is to boost and encourage our business sector and make sure that they’re hiring,” Mr. Obama said.

Emphasis mine. You see, Mr. President, there are two things wrong with your statement. First, it's not your business as to whether they're hiring - they'll hire when they need to. Don't micromanage our businesses.

Second, "boosting" and "encouraging" the business sector is only indirectly related to hiring, because success in business doesn't necessarily depend on number of bodies. Successful businesses are profitable, stable, and strategically positioned to prosper in coming years. If hiring supports those goals, then they hire, but if downsizing, outsourcing, or freezing hiring supports those goals, that's what they do instead.

So telling business that you're now going to support them so that they can start hiring is like telling someone you're going to start a restaurant so people can poop more. It's a likely consequence of feeding them, but it has nothing to do with why you're running a restaurant.

If the President really wanted to overcome his communications problems, he would say, "I want to support a business environment where businesses can be strong, stable and profitable." That's a message that businesses can understand and respond to. And I think he would have said it that way if anybody in his administration had the slightest clue as to how business thinks. But as we all know, those people are in very short supply in his Cabinet.

So it's no surprise that Obama thinks of businesses as a social works program, existing solely to provide people with income and benefits (and pay corporate taxes, of course). And no wonder that he thinks it's just their inherent, obstinate evil characters or being miffed at the President that prevent them from hiring. If only his teleprompter would give him the key words needed to convince business to forswear evil profits and start hiring!! Just. Need. The Right. Words.

I swear, I think I'd rather have the Constitution require that Presidential candidates have at least run a lemonade stand than that they be natural born citizens.

Lost In The Election News...Alaska TV Station Fires Two Employees For Plotting Against Joe Miller

—DrewM.

Talk about burying bad news. It's old but I didn't want to let it go without note here.

Reporters for an Anchorage TV station were caught on voicemail plotting to hit Joe Miller with false stories right before the election. Station management denied any ill intent but the explanation offered that day was clearly BS.

They can spin it anyway they want now but actions speak louder than words.

The station's statement.

"KTVA today released findings of its internal assessment of allegations that the "news director for CBS Anchorage affiliate KTVA, along with assignment editor Nick McDermott, and other reporters, openly discussed creating, if not fabricating, two stories about Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Joe Miller," as alleged by the Miller campaign. KTVA states that its review included multiple staff interviews, a review of that day's actual news coverage and a forensic transcript of the recorded audio conversation.

General Manager Jerry Bever stated, "As we worked through this fact-finding process we noted that actual story assignments for that day had already been decided before the recorded conversation took place. At no time did any of the elements associated with the recorded comments become part of any coverage or broadcast. The recorded conversation in question specifically involved how that evening's Miller rally might be promoted and the ensuing dialogue went down hill from there. These particular comments were not in line with KTVA standards."

As a result of this incident, the two producers involved in the recorded conversation are no longer with the station. As a matter of policy KTVA did not identify the staff members involved, however KTVA clarified that neither the News Director, Assignment Editor Nick McDermott nor any other KTVA reporters were involved in the recorded conversation as previously reported by the Miller campaign.

KTVA believes that its actual broadcast coverage of Miller has been sound and fair during this election cycle and the history of our coverage speaks for itself. Bever noted that in the coverage of this issue, FOX News correspondent Dan Springer reported that in a review of recent Miller coverage by KTVA, Fox News could not find any articles or stories that showed any obvious bias or hit pieces against Joe Miller.

KTVA has contacted the Miller campaign to set up a meeting to review its findings. "

The plotting only came to light because one of the employees was stupid enough not to hang up their phone, otherwise we never would have heard about it.

How many other times a day does this go on and we never know about it?

But don't worry Media Matters For American is listening to Rush!

RELATED: Alaska election officials are speeding up the write-in counting process.

From Slu:

An Epic Rematch

—Slublog

In January, the website EconStories released the first epic rap battle between Friedrich Hayek and John Maynard Keynes.

At The Economist Buttonwood Gathering, the two met again live on stage.

Video below the jump.

Continue reading

Christine O'Donnell: Yeah, Republican Disunity Was To Blame For My Defeat

—DrewM.

Come on, you knew this post was coming. It's been a decent interval but let us get it over with and move on.

I put the video below the fold because sometimes CNN vids are a pain to load and slow the site down. Take a look at it and then let's discuss.

The most glaringly stupid thing about her making the disunity excuse is that she ran as a write-in candidate two years ago after losing the primary. I really don't want to hear about a lack of unity from a person who demands it but never gets around to giving it.

Yes, according to exit polls she did come close to matching Coons in independents (she ran 3 points behind him) but close isn't good enough in a state where Democrats are an overwhelmingly large part of the electorate.

Look at how voters identified themselves by ideology...23% liberal, 66% moderate, 17% conservative. Coons cleaned up with liberals and moderates winning those groups 88 and 66 percent respectively. Do you really think those two groups were simply waiting for the ok from Karl Rove and John Cornyn to vote for O'Donnell?

If only there were some way to test the theory that liberal Democrats are popular in Delaware and that it hand nothing to do with Karl Rove giving a 'true' conservative the stink eye....Oh wait! There is.

Let's look at the House race which covers the same territory in Delaware.

The Democrat won that race 57-41. Now let's check the Coons/O'Donnell race margin..hey look! Coons won 56-40! The only logical question is, why does Karl Rove hate Glen Urquhart?

You can compare the Senate exit polls on party and ideological breakdowns with the House ones and they are essentially the same.

Karl Rove and the NRSC had nothing to do with O'Donnell's defeat. In fact, as bad of a candidate as I think O'Donnell is, she had little to do with her defeat. It's a deeply blue state that actually likes liberals. We had a chance to get a moderate-liberal Republican and passed on it. To me, that was tactically stupid. Yes, Castle would have been a pain in the ass but not as big a one when there were 47 or 48 Republicans in the Senate. The power of the moderates is when they are all the deciding vote, add a cushion and they are manageable. Personally, I would have liked to have had another no vote on HCR in the Senate but others didn't think that was important enough.

In a state like Delaware, the universe of voters for a candidate like O'Donnell is simply not enough to win. If you are looking for a candidate to make national conservatives feel good, she was awesome. Alas, only people in Delaware could vote. You either accept you are going to get a squish like Castle in a place like Delaware and take what benefit you can get from them or you consign the Republican to irrelevancy in a number of states.

Here's what really bothers me about this race and people's positions on it...every party and movement is going to nominate a stinker every now and then. It happens. Usually though you just politely turn away and ignore them. In this case a lot of folks not only didn't want to ignore O'Donnell (that was RINOism!) but embraced and promoted her.

That was a mistake, not because of what it meant in Delaware (a lost cause without Castle on the ballot) but what it means nationally. O'Donnell was a lousy candidate. She had a sketchy personal story, no record of achievement before coming to the race and no real ability to further the conservative message. We spent a lot of money and time on a candidate that had no shot. If you were a Democrat and wanted to hurt conservatives or the tea party by making someone the face of those groups, you'd pick Christine O'Donnell. The fact that a lot of conservatives willingly did that is simply an unforced error we should not repeat.

Added: Something I forgot but saw mentioned in the comments...the exit polls showed Coons beating Castle 44-43. I have to say that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. First, it's a hypothetical that ignores what happened for the last 6 weeks. The race obviously got a lot more attention with O'Donnell, how many Democrats came out to vote against her that might have stayed home otherwise? How many more conservatives came out for her that hated Castle? Obama, Biden and the DNC don't show up with Castle as the Republican (they didn't go because they were worried, they did it to raise O'Donnell's profile nationally and in PA to hurt Republicans). You can't assume the electorate that showed up and answered that question is the one that would have showed up had Castle won the primary.

Here's the O'Donnell interview on CNN:

Continue reading

Show's Not Over Yet!

—Slublog

The oh so fun Connecticut race isn't the only one that has yet to be decided. A partial roundup of the races that are too close to call:

--In North Carolina, Bob "The Washington Strangler" Etheridge is talking recount and is mumbling something about election irregularities without offering evidence. Here's the funny thing, though. After the state "refined" the votes, Ellmer's lead fell by 453, which conveniently puts the margin separating them into automatic recount territory. I'm not saying there's funny business going on, but it's just so...oh, I don't know...interesting that ballots found after an initial vote always seem to benefit the Democrat. Just saying, you know?

--In NY-25, the GOP candidate has just taken the lead.

--The Senate races in Alaska and Washington state are going to be multi-day (or week) count-a-thons. I'm a little nervous for Rossi, since that state's Democratic party has a history of finding ballots in close races.

--New York residents still don't know which party will control the State Senate. And they may not know for weeks.

--And finally, what would a close election post be without a nod to Minnesota? The governor's race there is headed for a recount. I don't know about the rest of you, but I look forward to the strange and interesting places they'll find "lost" votes this time!

--Dave in Texas points out another close race. Republican Blake Farenthold holds a 799-vote lead over incumbent Democrat Solomon Ortiz. Ortiz, like Etheridge, is talking up "discrepancies" in the vote. Man, it's really strange how the Democrats didn't make much noise about those "discrepancies" in 2006 and 2008.

Oh, well. Those must have been much cleaner elections or something. That's all.

But Wait, There's More! - Republican David Harmer is behind Democrat Jerry McNerny in CA-11 by only 121 votes, with absentees and provisionals yet to be counted.

Connecticut Governor's Race Still Undecided

—LauraW.

Secretary Of State Susan Bysiewicz, a shameless Dem party hack mentioned here before, decided to call the election for Malloy (D) yesterday, in advance of an actual certain vote count, using 'facts' that she has discovered inside her rectum.

The Associated Press on Wednesday afternoon had called the race for Malloy based on Bysiewicz’s statements, but withdrew its call later Wednesday after its vote count showed Foley with a lead of 8,424 votes over Malloy, with all but 1.5 percent of the precincts counted. The lack of hard numbers from Bysiewicz contributed to the AP’s decision.

When the AP tells you you're a hack, you're an outrageous fucking hack.

Both Malloy and Foley assume victory and are assembling their transition teams.
Oh Goody!

Maybe they can both move into the same office and have two desks and both live at the Governor's mansion. My Two Governors. I smell a hit sitcom!

Photocopied ballots, polls running out of ballots, questionable transfers, polls in a heavily Dem area staying open late, dead people voting, a nakedly partisan and dishonest Secretary of State presiding over it all...oh yes.

This is Democrat Nirvana. Look at the beautiful world they'd like to create for all of us.

Top Headline Comments 11-4-10

—Gabriel Malor

Alright, I think by this evening I'll be able to announce a winner in the House contest. Thanks to the kind donation of our friends and fellow morons over at Acorn Souvenirs the winner will be getting a limited edition Captain KickAss bobble-head doll!

They donated one for the winner of the Senate contest, too, but it looks like it's gonna be a while before things get sorted out in Alaska, Colorado, and Washington.

Financial Briefing: QE Is Just Another Way of Saying 'I Love You'

—Monty

UPDATE: Helicopter Ben defends himself.

QE2 is underway, to the tune of about $600 billion (or $1 trillion, depending on how you count it). Possible outcomes? Ruin, devastation, trade-wars, skyrocketing inflation. Unlikely outcomes? Fiscal sanity, probity, stability. Solution? Get rid of the Fed entirely. The harm it has done over the years far outweighs the good.

Other QE2 assessments? Mish prods the QE2 corpse with his toe, and announces "He's dead, Jim." Brad Delong: The mountain labored, and gave birth to a mouse.

Continue reading

Overnight Open Thread

—Maetenloch

Well I don't know about you but I felt kinda hung over today and I didn't even drink last night. Somehow I got buzz-cheated.

The Mini-Cannon That Will Blow Your Mind

Here's a home-built mini-cannon that's an accurate scaled down model of a Napoleonic-era cannon. But don't be fooled by its small size - you could seriously injure or even kill someone with it. Further proof of the power of firearms even with just a pinch of gunpowder.

And in a semi-unrelated note I've given instructions to my family that in the unlikely event of my death I would like a real cannon to be fired and the 1812 Overture played at my funeral. And if they can time it just right so the cannon fire and church bells match the recording, I will be very pleased.

And there's video of it being loaded here. I want one but sadly they aren't for sale due to safety reasons.

Continue reading

Jim DeMint: Sure, We'll Vote To Raise the Debt Ceiling. As Long As It Is Accompanied By Massive Cuts In Spending.

—Ace

From John King's State of the Nation on CNN:

JOHN KING, HOST, "JOHN KING USA": ….. Many have said now that the Republicans have a majority in the House, more conservatives in the Senate, where will we know, when will we know if you're serious about keeping your promises about spending and the debt. If there's a vote in the Congress on raising the debt ceiling so that the government can continue to print money and spend money, should Republicans say no?

SEN. JIM DEMINT (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: I think Republicans will say no, unless that raising of the debt ceiling is accompanied by some -- some dramatic spending cuts, something that would direct us toward a balanced budget in the future, Republicans will not support an increase in the debt limit.

What I hope you'll see from Republicans right out of the box, as soon as we get back, is a moratorium on earmarks. Americans and connected the dots. They realize if we're all up there trying to bring home the bacon, we're going to bankrupt our country. And if Republicans in the House and the Senate both take a pledge to not ask for earmarks and to have a moratorium on -- on them in the Congress, I think it will show Americans, at least at the beginning, that we are serious.

So there are a number of other things we need to do to demonstrate that we're -- we're serious. And one of those is to de-fund Obama Care, and, as soon as we can, hopefully, have a vote on balancing the budget.

The Democrats' big strategy is to impel the Republicans to own a piece of their failure. They want us to own their failure by voting to lock it in place.

We should decline. And yes, that means shutting down the government if necessary (and it probably will be necessary), and yes, we have to do that anyway, even knowing the risks.

The public elected us to cut spending. We have to cut spending. We start with a 5% across the board cut (except for the military) and and freeze in federal pay raises (except for the military) and then on top of that begin zeroing out as many programs as we can, and cutting others as much as we can.

We need to cut $100 billion every year. That is going to be tough -- both politically, and practically (I don't think a lot of people are aware of how hard this will be), but we need to do this.

There are going to be some extremely tough votes: Like voting to cut aid to college students.

Parents are not going to like that. Republican parents are not going to like that. Conservative Republican parents reading this site right now are not going to like that.

But these are the things that have to be chopped to really have a chance of cutting $100 billion. We're not going to cut that much simply by reducing foreign aid. We're going to have to cut a lot of things that people actually... well, kind of like.

We have to do this. Whether or not we'll be punished epically in 2012 like the Dems were in 2010, I don't know. But we're locked in to this now.

I hope everyone understands what we've voted for, here.

It's not just going to be "fat" and money that goes to other people. To be serious about cutting federal spending, we have to cut popular subsidies for the middle class.

But again, we have to do it.

Glen Beck Gloats

—Ace

One of those things that starts out a little funny, then gets old and annoying, then gets a little funny again, then gets really funny.

Buerkle Goes Up In NY-25?

—Ace

There is injury.

And there is insult.

The Gloating Thread

—Ace

As some of you may know, my main interest in politics is the gloating.

It's been four years since I could gloat. (Well, okay, we had a couple of good off-year elections earlier.)

So, as I'm... uh... nursing my wounds and sense of failure after being part of a historic 60+/6 landslide... I'm thinking we need to gloat.

Chip Cravaak: Ike Turner
Jim Oberstar: Tina Turner

Pat Toomey: 60 horny guys with a hard-on for poultry
Joe Sestak: "That Chicken"

Bobby Schilling: One of those mean kids at school who beats up retards
Phil Hare: a retard

Be Happy: Crist's Concession Speech

—Ace

Not that great. He doesn't embarrass himself as Barney Frank did in his victory speech (note to MA-4: This is what you voted for. Enjoy.), but it's still kind of fun to see the Great Orange Hope say the words "Senator Marco Rubio."

Continue reading

Reflections on the Election, By Monty

—Ace

Monty wrote this in email.

Jim Geraghty is right: this is the most frustrating landslide victory in history.

Bizarre feeling this morning. In short, this is the most frustrating overwhelming landslide victory of all time.

I find it odd -- I went to bed in a fairly sour mood, but my mood has
improved by leaps and bounds since waking up. The GOP really did do
very well last night. We lost some races we should have won, but the
colossal state-house GOP victories will be the biggest unreported
story of this election. That is huge, and very welcome, news.

Barone has made the point that this election may have been more of a
GOP consolidation election than a takeover of blue districts, and
given the CT, MA, and CA races that's probably true: blue districts
stayed devoutly blue. (Scott Brown's victory was indeed a fluke,
apparently.) But the GOP at long last has a fired-up base and a
coherent message to take forward, along with a majority in the House
big enough to stop the runaway Democrat train.

I dearly wanted to take Reid down, but he does us almost as much good
in his weakened state. The Donks are going to be under fire from their
own uber-liberal base as well as from angry Republicans. The next two
years are going to be a story of balked dreams and frustrated desires
for the Donks, which brings a smile to my face.

I wanted more, obviously, but I'm not going to let perfect be the
enemy of the good. The forces of small government and fiscal sanity
had a very good night last night; let's not lose sight of that.

I agree. Here are some of my spin-off thoughts:

Continue reading

Racism? CBS Photoshops Obama To Be Half-White, Half-Black, Star Trek Frank Gorshin Style

—Ace

What are they saying here?

I dunno.

Ballot Propositions In California: San Diego Approves "Fair and Open Competition" In County-Paid Projects; California As A State Reduces The Threshold For Taxing and Spending From 2/3rds to 50%

—Ace

A bit of common sense from San Diego, where the county has banned union-beloved Project Labor Agreements (which essentially create a closed shop for projects in which only unionized workers can compete).

On the other hand...

For years, Democrats have held wide majorities in both houses of the Legislature. But they claim they have been held hostage by a recalcitrant Republican minority that often refuses to offer up votes for a state budget. Today, voters decided to change the way the state budget process works, removing the two-thirds vote requirement to pass a state spending plan.

No measure on the state ballot will alter the way Sacramento operates more than Prop. 25.... Opponents say it will allow Democrats to raise fees on a host of products and services -- including alcohol to tobacco -- and remove an important check on Democrats' power in the Legislature.

All I can say to California voters (present company excluded, of course) is "This is what you voted for." I have no sympathy. Enjoy.

PS, bailouts are over, guys. Daddy's taking California's credit card away. You'll have to live within your means now. Since you refuse to cut spending, that will mean much higher taxes.

Again, this is what you voted for. Good luck with that.

Just a Picture I am Posting for No Particular Reason

—Slublog

You know, don't read into it too much or anything.

Not sure what gave me the idea.

Continue reading

Below the radar: FL voters overwhelmingly passed a resolution this new congress and Ogabe might want to take note of

—Purple Avenger

71.88% FOR
21.12% AGAINST

Balancing the Federal Budget. - A Nonbinding Referendum Calling for an Amendment to the United States Constitution.

In order to stop the uncontrolled growth of our national debt and prevent excessive borrowing by the Federal Government, which threatens our economy and national security, should the United States Constitution be amended to require a balanced federal budget without raising taxes?

This got ~3.5M votes "for" too, so it wasn't some obscure NB resolution people paid no attention to that only got 50K votes.

Jim DeMint: A Survival Guide For Incoming Senators

—Ace

Most important point: Don't get bought off.

The NYT Took a Chicken Into a Back Room Last Night And Did Awful Things

—Ace

From Brother Bewapitis:

Got this from the NY Times (sorry): “Voters sent a message that change has not happened fast enough,” said Tim Kaine, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

Headlines from NYT were a hoot Tea Party Fails to Topple Reid

Tight Deadline for New Speaker to Deliver

Another Election, Another Wave [so you know, this was bound to happen and is not indicative of anything really]

Restless Voters Divide Power in Washington
subhed: Many Centrists Defeated

Great.

Obama: No One Objected To My Leadership Style When I Was Campaigning In Iowa

—Ace

Yeah, I know there's a thread about this. I thought I'd call it out. And use it as the excuse to post this.

Oh: More than half of the supposed Blue Dogs were wiped out.

They're just liberal Democrats. If they were conservative they would have held their seats.

Thanks to a couple of readers -- sorry, I forget who. I've had this open for more than a day.

Obama Post Election Press Conference

—DrewM.

So far Obama's major nod to getting whooped last night is to speak slower and with a tinge of sorrow in his voice. Beyond that? Nope, not really.

Big Takeaway...Obama rejects notion that his policies were rejected by voters last night. Says his policies are not moving the nation backwards, rejects notion that was message of last night.

He's not going the Clinton way.

It would have been much shorter and much more honest if he just said what he really wants to say, "Let me be clear, I'm still awesome. If you aren't smart enough to get that, it's on you not me."

Quality M.K. Ham snark

Obama at 1:20: "Let's not relitigate the past." Obama at 1:24: "We already had a large deficit, which I inherited."

Running Updates:

10th question...do voters think you are out of touch and will you change your style. "Folks didn't have any questions about my leadership style when I was in Iowa for a year"...Running for office is NOT leadership.

Breaking...Obama seems to want you to know being President is hard.

Suffice it to say, Obama is not the warmest man in the world. Now he's throwing a pity party for himself.

9th question...Slurpie summit gets laugh. Will Obama offer 'reset' button to business community. Sure..I'll say nice things about business. Why not, he's spent two years killing them, doesn't hurt to say something nice about the dead.

He's just going on about how tough it was because of circumstances that he seemed tough on business. He really loves it. BS.

8th question...Slurpeee! Car in the ditch! You kind of got rejected on that, what's your thought? DADT repeal...kind of dead, right?

Obama says DADT repeal is right thing to do if done in orderly fashion. Avoids answer question. Says it might be addressed in Zombie Democrat session better than letting courts decide.

Doubles down on ditch metaphor.

7th question...Since Cap and Trade is dead, what about EPA regulations. Do you feel bad about cutting backroom deals to pass ObamaCare? he says process was mess and that's regrettable. Policy itself was worth it.

On EPA-We'll try legislation again. But EPA may have to act, too early to say how it will work out.

Continue reading

Phooey - They're Calling it for Bennet

—Geoff

Looks like Michael Bennet (D) gets to keep his Senate seat. Damn it. He's leading by 15K votes with 88% of precincts in. So of the 3 toss-up races in Colorado, the Dems didn't lose a one.

Damn it.

GOP Takes Maine

—Slublog

This is something I never thought I'd type: the GOP now controls the Maine State House and the Blaine House.

The vote was close, though.

AUGUSTA, Maine — The Bangor Daily News is projecting that Republican Paul LePage will be the next governor of Maine, holding a 7,500 vote lead over independent candidate Eliot Cutler with just a few precincts yet to report in what turned out to be a nail-biting battle for the Blaine House.

Cutler called LePage to concede the race around 11 a.m. Wednesday, according to Cutler Campaign Manager Ted O’Meara.

Polls showed the race much less competitive, but a lot of Democrats were nervous enough at the prospect of a LePage victory to abandon their candidate.

And abandon her they did. In this blue state, the Democrat was only able to earn 19% of the vote. And both Democrats won their Congressional campaigns, which shows just how schizophrenic Maine voters are.

Still, Maine's electoral map now looks like this:

Continue reading

Yeah, about not flipping the Senate this year...

—CAC

In 2010, we couldn't grab the Senate in such hardcore Republican states like Connecticut, New York, California, and Washington; and we failed to beat an uber-popular Democratic governor in a state that has gone blue for the Senate since my grandfather was chasing tail as a 20 year old.
Certainly with such a teeeerrible performance of only grabbing seven over the course of the year, it isn't like 2012, you know, could be

Continue reading

Last Night- The Senate, Yeah It Was About Obama

—DrewM.

The historic GOP pickups in the House are getting the most attention (and rightfully so) but I wanted to say a few things about the Senate races.

Late last night Chuck Todd of NBC asked this on Twitter.

Was this election a referendum on Pelosi or Obama? if it was about Obama, wouldn't GOP be winning more SEN seats? Pelosi was issue in House

I'd argue the Senate results in total tell us nothing about Obama but if you look closer, they tell us a lot about his standing at the moment.

First, 2010 was always going to be tough for Republicans in the Senate. There were simply more Republican held seats to defend. It evened out a bit thanks to retirements, a death and Obama appointments but even then, they were in mostly safe Democratic seats.

Republicans didn't pick up as many seats as they would have liked and certainly didn't get the majority but look at some of the seats they did pick up...Indiana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arkansas...those are swing states in presidential years. Illinois is a sold blue state but given that's Obama's old seat and that he campaigned for the Democrat, that's a pretty harsh rebuke to him. Only the North Dakota flip to Republicans was a solid red state in a presidential year coming home.

Also, look at the open seats that Republicans held on to....Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Missouri. Those are important states in presidential elections. At one point in the cycle Democrats had high hopes of winning some or even most of them. Team Obama can not feel good about seeing them go solidly to the Republicans.

The Democrats on the other hand spent the whole cycle playing defense on their own turf in places like California, Connecticut and West Virginia (though Obama will never win there). Washington is still to close to call.

The only swing type states they held on to were Nevada and now it seems Colorado.

For the Democrats to crow that they cruised in places like New York, Vermont and Delaware...well, so what? It's only news if they don't.

So yeah, where Democrats are easy winners all the time, every time, they won (except Illinois). Where both parties have to battle every cycle...the Republicans swept the table. That's the referendum on Obama and he lost.

UPDATE [geoff]: Bennet (D) is up by 7500 over Buck (R) in the CO Senate race with almost 90% of precincts reporting.

Not Ace - Why I'm glad we didn't take the Senate [krakatoa]

—Open Blogger

PLEASE NOTE! This post isn't by Ace. He's far too drunk / hungover / trying to un-stick his pudding-covered bag from his thighs to be bothered with posting this early.

I know this cuts against the grain of the crowd here at Ace's, which is why I shied away from discussions & posting this election. It would have amounted to little more than a distraction.

The efforts made by Ace & the readers here were extraordinary & commendable, and everyone should be ecstatic with the results.

We took the House going away, tossing out everything from first-term blue-dogs to creaky Committee leaders who had suckled the Capitol teat for decades.

And we closed the gap in the Senate, leaving use poised beautifully for more pick-ups in '12.

Continue reading

Financial Briefing: I come here not to praise California, but to bury it

—Monty

That sound you just heard was the State of California irretrievably flushing itself down the toilet.

This is financial news for several reasons, and it's really the only financial story that matters today.

California's most dire problems right now are related to public-employee obligations (pensions and healthcare). The power of public-employee unions in California have held the State and local governments in thrall for years, and with the election of Jerry Brown as Governor, the people of California have opted to spray kerosene on a blaze that was already threatening to overwhelm them.

Consider stories like this or this -- they are emblematic of a state where the people are no longer masters of their government.

Well, the die has been cast, California. You have placed your fate into the hands of a political party and a governmental machine that cares for nothing except what it can squeeze out of you to keep the party-train rolling. There will come a time in the not-too-distant future when you will have cause to bitterly regret what happened last night, and to wonder when the disaster truly became unavoidable. Well, now you know: it happened last night when you elected Jerry Brown as your governor. You chose to kowtow to the labor unions; you chose to believe comforting lies rather than the horrible truth.

You will reap the whirlwind.

[UPDATE] Don't take this as a gloom-n-doom post, Morons. I'm quite happy with how last night turned out. We lost a few tough races we probably should have won, but California's fate was written in the starlight and every line on your palm. At least this way the Democrats get to own the mess they made in the first place. Wisconsin looked on that far shore and turned away -- let's be glad of that.

Top Headline Comm-- Oh God, Could You Please Stop Yelling

—Gabriel Malor

And somebody turn the sun down.

Oh God: Murky Probably Won

—Ace

It's not declared yet, but 88% are in, and Murky leads by 10,000.

The only hope seems to be that there are 20,000 absentees, which I suppose could break hard for Miller. Perhaps... I don't know, maybe some people voted before it became widely appreciated that Murky was a bona fide threat.

Late Night Counting Thread

—Ace

I don't think there'll be too many new victors announced tonight. But in case they are...

Sixteen State Legislatures Go GOP (Either Both Chambers Flipping, Or At Least One)

—Ace

The list.

1:15 am CST Update: 233 locked in & +58.

—Russ from Winterset

Based on the calls of TX-23 and CO-3 for Canseco and Tipton, respectively, the NY Times coverage map currently shows us with 233 seats locked in. This is a total gain so far of +53. That puts us 15 seats over the "magic number" of 218. The Dems were sitting at 255 before the election, and currently they're at 174 seats locked in.

The tossups include the following districts where the (R) is in the lead:

MN-8 (Cravaack over Oberstar) yes, I just said that. You're not on drugs.
UT-2, where Philpott currently leads by 33.
ID-1, where Labrador is leading by 8k.
WA-2, where Koster is leading by less than 1% with about 64% in.
NV-3, with Heck up by 1%.
CA-3, with Lungren up by 6%.
CA-11, with Harmer up.
CA-20, with Vidak up 0.5% with 50% reporting.
CA-45, where Mack (Mary Bono-Mack) is up early in the tally.
CA-44, with Calvert up early in the tally.
TX-27, with Farenthold up by 800 votes.

That's 11 districts, and it's not exactly being optimistic to think that we'll hold half of them. Call it 6, which puts us at 239, and +64. That's a 64 seat pickup, in a year that found the Republican Party torn between conflicts involving "insiders" and "tea partiers". Can you imagine how we'll do when these two groups learn to play nice and work TOGETHER?

And the momentum? Pretty much one sided. Other than Cao in LA, can you think of any other cases where a Dem flipped a seat blue from red? Any victory parties the Dems had tonight were victories of survival. All the initiative lies with the Republican party.

Think about this tomorrow when the pundits tell you that any Republican wave of less than 70 seats was "disappointing". Yeah, disappointing. Like that disappointing minor victory we won over the British Army back in 1815. Andy Jackson might have whipped the greatest army in the world with a bunch of backwoods hicks, but his failure to capture both Parliament AND the British Monarchy made it a disappointing failure in the long run. Right?

NOTE: Corrected to reflect the fact that my 2am math is somewhat shaky.

Is RCP Fallible? UPDATE: I Guess Not

—Geoff

[Covering CO, WY, and UT]

UPDATE: 12:50 - Counting in the Buck race seems to have slowed to a crawl, so I'm going to sign off. Sorry for the late start. Have a great night, everybody.

UPDATE: 12:39 - I see NBC projects 243 GOP seats in the House - a gain of 65.

UPDATE: 12:34 - Ahhh - no joy in Utah. 100% of precincts in, and Matheson beats Philpot by 5%.

UPDATE: 12:28 - Several commenters have been prodding me to say something about the Philpot (R) - Matheson (D) race in Utah's 2nd District. I ignored them because I trusted RCP, who had said that race "Leaned Democrat." But Philpott leads by 1 point with 65% of precincts reporting!

UPDATE: 12:24 - That was fast. Buck's lead drops to 5900.

UPDATE: 12:22 - Buck leads by 9500 w/70% of precincts reporting. News teams say that future votes come from both rural and metro precincts, so it could still swing either way.

UPDATE: 12:09 - They finally called it for Tipton (R)! This means that RCP called it exactly right for all of the races in UT, WY, and CO. No surprises, except for the "toss-ups." According to Google the GOP has 232 seats in the House, a gain of 56.

UPDATE: 11:39 - Buck opens up lead to 10,000! If Buck ends up ahead despite the Boulder shenanigans, and if he can win by more than 0.5%, then we could get unfritzed. (...and Tipton maintains lead with 79% of precincts reporting)

Continue reading

Alan West Won!

—DrewM.

From Hot Air Headlines.

Better than another cup of coffee at 2am.

PacNW Electionapalooza: WA, OR, ID and AK

—Genghis

UPDATE: ID, OR and WA polls now closed. AK polls open for two more hours.

UPDATE II: Washington Senate Race

At 9:09 PM (PST) Murray (D) 50.59% vs Rossi (R) 49.41%

UPDATE III: Links to state results added below the fold.

UPDATE IV: Polls now closed in Alaska

UPDATE V: What Ace just said below (sorry I keep vanishing the thread...trying to add additional links and updates...and royally fucking up at it)

UPDATE VI:

Latest AK Senate results, fresh from the Baked Alaska oven:

McAdams, Scott T. DEM 31827 24.81%
Miller, Joe REP 44502 34.69%
Write-in Votes 50655 39.49%

And the WA Senate race tightens ever so slightly:

Murray (D) 712,359 50.60%
Rossi (R) 695,381 49.40%

Not to worry though. Still plenty of time for King County election workers to find some extra Murray ballots behind filing cabinets, in desk drawers and up their asses in case Rossi should actually pull ahead.

Some additional media links below...will get updates on the races still in play very soon.

Send tips, updates, random musings etc. to xgenghisx (at) gmail (dot) com

Updates, links etc. below the fold. Additional links and info. to be added throughout the evening.

Special greetings to the Sub-Moron Meetup in Fremont tonight. What's the final headcount? Pics/video or it didn't happen. That includes what you plan to do to the Lenin statue later on this evening.

Continue reading