Updated: December 2019
2019 Cost-Effectiveness Model
Last Updated: November 25, 2019
The most recent version of the 2019 model can be accessed via the links below. Earlier versions of the 2019 model are accessible via links in the changelog.
This version of our model estimates the cost-effectiveness of funding gaps we expect our top charities to fill after taking grants we expect Open Philanthropy to make this year into account (see below).
An extensive document about our cost-effectiveness analysis, primarily intended for staff members at GiveWell, is publicly accessible here.
Recommendations to Open Philanthropy and allocation of Q3 2019 discretionary funding
In November 2019, we recommended grants of $57.3 million to our top charities and standout charities, composed of a recommendation to Open Philanthropy to grant $54.6 million to our top charities and standout charities, and $2.6 million in grants to top charities at GiveWell's discretion. See this page for additional details.
This version of our model includes estimates of the cost-effectiveness of funding gaps we expect our top charities to fill with these funds. You can access it here:
Our Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Estimates
Our cost-effectiveness analyses are an important input into our charity recommendations. We view cost-effectiveness analyses as valuable for helping us identify large differences in the cost-effectiveness of organizations we're considering for a recommendation and to encourage staff to think through relevant issues related to charities' work. However, although we spend significant staff time on our cost-effectiveness analyses, we consider our cost-effectiveness numbers to be extremely rough. We do not make charity recommendations solely on the basis of cost-effectiveness calculations and will rely heavily on other factors, such as an organization's track record, when we are comparing organizations with cost-effectiveness estimates that are not very different.
The model relies on individuals' philosophical values—for example, how to weigh increasing a person's income relative to averting a death—and difficult judgment calls about which we have limited information, such as the likelihood that a program as it is implemented will have the same impact as the program when it was studied. We encourage those who are interested to make a copy of the model and edit it to account for their own values. We also strongly encourage those who use our research to read more about our approach to cost-effectiveness and our page with details on a 2019 survey of about 2,000 people living in extreme poverty in Kenya and Ghana about how they value different outcomes.
Past Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
2018 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
In 2018, we published frequent updates to our model. The most recent version of the 2018 model can be accessed via the links below. Earlier versions of the 2018 model are accessible via links in the changelog.
2017 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
Version 5 — Published November 27, 2017
Version 4 — Published November 8, 2017
Version 3 — Published October 27, 2017
Version 2 — Published August 16, 2017
Version 1 — Published May 20, 2017
2016 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
Final Analysis
- Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, deworming, cash transfers, and seasonal malaria chemoprevention – view or make an editable copy
Mid-year update
- Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, deworming, cash transfers, and iodine fortification – download file (.xlsx)
2015 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
Final Analyses
- Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, deworming, cash transfers, and iodine fortification – download file (.xlsx)
- Development Media International – download file (.xlsx)
[Note: Out of date as of November 2015, see this note for details.]
2014 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
Final Analyses
- Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets – download file (.xls)
- Deworming, cash transfers, and iodine fortification – download file (.xls)
- Living Goods – download file (.xls)
- Development Media International – download file (.xls)
Interim Analyses
- Living Goods – download file (.xls)
- Development Media International – download file (.xls)
2013 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
- Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets – download file (.xls)
- Deworming and cash transfers – download file (.xls)
2012 Cost-Effectiveness Analyses
- Long-lasting insecticide-treated nets – download file (.xls)
- Deworming and cash transfers – download "Lives Saved" file (.xls) and "Financial Returns" file (.xls)
See also this blog post discussing our 2012 cost-effectiveness estimates.
