Daily Kos

8:19 AM PT (David Jarman): CO-Sen: Arapahoe Co. District Attorney George Brauchler hasn't even announced his bid for the Republican Senate nomination in Colorado yet (though that looks imminent, once October starts and Q3 ends), but he's already the subject of a poll from a Democratic group. The decision to release the poll at first glance seems like an odd one, because it doesn't show Dem incumbent Michael Bennet in a particularly dominant position; he leads Brauchler only 45-42, according to Dem pollster Clarity Campaign Labs. He also leads GOP self-funder Robert Blaha 45-41; both those results seem to hinge on their Generic R status, as only 15 percent of respondents have any opinion about Brauchler (12 percent for Blaha).

What's going on, probably, is that the Senate race wasn't really the main point of the poll; it was sponsored by the group End Citizens United and, predictably, the poll finds that Coloradans do want to end the Citizens United decision (by a 66-17 margin among all respondents); the Senate race aspect was probably just an add-on for them to get some press. Another important caveat: the poll's sample is only 8 percent Latino, which is very different from the 14 percent Latino turnout from 2012, according to exit polls.

8:56 AM PT (Steve Singiser): LA-Gov: If you've been waiting anxiously for new data in the forthcoming battle to determine the next Governor of Louisiana, wait no more. Because in the past day or so, we have been treated to three different surveys on the lay of the land down on the bayou.

Two of the polls bear fairly close resemblance, in that they forecast the same "top two" (remember that the first round is merely an all-party primary, with the top two vote getters advancing to a runoff). They do flip the order, however.

The Triumph poll, which has been a regular fixture this cycle, has Democratic state legislator John Bel Edwards out to a fairly decent lead over Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter (36-29), with PSC member Scott Angelle (12 percent) and Lt. Governor Jay Dardenne (11 percent) well behind.

Meanwhile, a MarblePort poll for the local blog The Hayride shows Vitter leading Edwards (29-26), with Angelle (15 percent) and Dardenne (14 percent) well back.

But one of these ones is not like the others—a new poll from Causeway Solutions had an all-GOP final two as David Vitter (24 percent) and Scott Angelle (21 percent), with the lone Democrat in the field (John Bel Edwards) just missing the cutoff at 20 percent (Dardenne was well back at 10 percent). They also were the only ones to poll a perspective general election, and found Angelle up double digits on Vitter (43-32). Given the lofty status for Angelle in this poll, perhaps it will not surprise you that the poll was commissioned" by Louisiana Rising, which happens to be a pro-Angelle super PAC.

9:20 AM PT (Steve Singiser): LA-Gov: In addition to new polling, we see a trio of new ads as the campaign shifts into the final stretch. The Louisiana Water Coalition goes negative on Republican Sen. David Vitter with an ad clearly targeted at female voters, while both Democrat John Bel Edwards and Republican Scott Angelle go positive with self-narrated 30-second spots in front of smiling, applauding audiences.

9:46 AM PT (Steve Singiser): MD-Sen/MD-07: Longtime Rep. Elijah Cummings has told folks that his decision on a potential U.S. Senate bid would come in the next couple of weeks. But the secret is out, presumably, after a chain of events Tuesday night. Local Rev. Jamal Bryant announced to his congregation that his campaign for Cummings' House seat, which lasted little more than a week, was over. He told WBAL-TV, in an interview after the announcement, that he backed off of a House bid after personally talking with Cummings. Cummings, for his part, is keeping mum for now.

10:32 AM PT (Steve Singiser): House: A group of nearly a dozen GOP freshmen have penned an open letter to their colleagues beseeching them to avoid a government shutdown, which looms in the coming weeks. The fact that all of them were GOP freshmen, and virtually all of them were in competitive districts (California's Mimi Walters being a possible exception) tells us that this might be more of an exercise in 2016 inoculation than a legitimate attempt to avoid a shutdown. To wit: the other person loudly ringing the "no shutdown" bell is New Hampshire U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who notably (and vocally) jumped her colleagues for trying to attach defunding of Planned Parenthood to a stopgap spending measure. Ayotte, of course, is looking at a potentially competitive 2016 U.S. Senate race, especially if Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan makes the plunge.

10:53 AM PT (Steve Singiser): NH-01: Former Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who announced her bid to reclaim this seat for the third time over the weekend, has chased one potential Democratic opponent out of the race. Executive Councillor Chris Pappas, who had been talked up for the seat prior to CSP's entry, announced that he will not run for Congress, and instead endorsed Shea-Porter. Meanwhile, NH1's Paul Steinhauser has talked with embattled GOP incumbent Rep. Frank Guinta, and Guinta appears determined to press onward. Guinta, whose campaign finance travails have led even some fellow Republicans to suggest he step aside, seems certain to face a primary challenge, with former candidates Rich Ashooh and Dan Innis at the top of the list.

11:03 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: Here's an interesting follow-up to the Wonkblog post earlier in the week about the dominant housing types (and, thus, density) in the nation's major cities. Instead of using city limits -- which is problematic, because some older cities like New York City are surrounded by almost-equally-dense suburbs, while other newer cities like Phoenix have boundaries that stretch out into vast emptiness -- it uses the Census-defined urbanized area within each metropolitan area.

The order changes only slightly: New York City moves into Philly's slot with the metro with the fewest single-family-detached homes, as Philadelphia has less dense suburbs. Compared with the previous list, Atlanta seems to fall down the list more than anyone else, thanks to the endless sprawl ringing it.

11:05 AM PT (Steve Singiser): MT-Gov: The Republican primary to challenge incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock got a little more crowded today with the (not unexpected) news that Republican and state public service commissioner Brad Johnson would throw his hat into the race. Johnson, who also served as Montana's secretary of state from 2005-2009, becomes the second major GOP candidate in the field, as wealthy businessman Greg Gianforte entered the race last month. Ironically, Johnson was once an employee of Gianforte, having been in sales for Gianforte's RightNow Technologies over a decade ago.

11:19 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: And here's some more food for thought on why it's better to think holistically about an entire metro area, rather than relying on where city limits arbitrarily fall. We've commented before on how the congressional districts that have the highest levels of inequality (as measured by the Gini coefficient) tend to be the most heavily Democratic ones, because they also tend to be in the central part of our older cities. Here's a more thorough explanation from City Observatory on why that's the case: cities, by virtue of their mixed uses and block-by-block variation, tend to be where both the richest and the poorest residents of a metropolitan area congregate. Exclusionary zoning and poor public transportation tend to keep the suburbs "equal" -- simply in the sense of being uniform in terms of who can afford the cost of entry, though, rather than by providing equality of opportunity.

11:27 AM PT (David Jarman): Congress: Pew Research has an interesting chart tracking, over time, the percentage of members of Congress who are immigrants. The number right now is very low: only six, or 1 percent of Congress. The highest percentage was at the very start of the nation's history, where 10 percent were born abroad (instead of in one of the colonies), and then it spiked again in the period of the most immigration, in the 1890s and first decades of the 20th century.

The six members, if you're wondering are Maizie Hirono (Japan), Raul Ruiz (Mexico), Ted Lieu (Taiwan), Norma Torres (Guatemala), and Albio Sires and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Cuba). The list excludes members who were born abroad, but to U.S. citizens, like, notoriously, Ted Cruz, as well as Tammy Duckworth (who was born in Thailand).

11:49 AM PT (Steve Singiser): VA-10: Apparently, there was one other Harper/NRCC poll on top of that pile of other GOP-friendly polls. But this one, out of GOP freshman Rep. Barbara Comstock's district in NoVa, is different for two reasons. For one thing, the VA-10 poll is of a district that, with a court order pending, will not necessarily retain the same lines after the mandatory remap. For another, the lack of a name-brand Democrat left Harper and the NRCC to pair Comstock with a "generic Democrat". For what it is worth (and it might not be much), Comstock leads Generic Dem 49-36.

12:36 PM PT (Steve Singiser): PA-02: It is entirely possible that I'm only putting this in the digest so I can use the phrase "Commissioner Gordon", but this is actually somewhat notable: Brian Gordon, Lower Merion (PA) Township Commissioner, is leaning towards a bid for Congress, challenging scandal-wracked longtime Democratic Rep. Chaka Fattah. One might wonder, though, if Commissioner Gordon's entry might actually save Fattah—Gordon is the second Dem challenger to announce, following Philly Ward Leader Dan Muroff, who announced his bid last month. Could the anti-Fattah vote split evenly, allowing the embattled incumbent to slide through with a plurality win?

One factor working against Fattah: his trial date would be just after the primary, and would undoubtedly be a gigantic cloud over the campaign for the incumbent, since even if he is exonerated, it will happen well after the primary.

12:44 PM PT (Steve Singiser): CO-Sen: Hmm...looks like Colorado GOPers might have not one, but two, potential candidates that have spent a lot of time in the media conversation in recent years.

On the heels of the recruiting efforts to lure Arapahoe County DA George Brauchler into the primary (he was the lead prosector of the Aurora shooting case—he said he will make a decision in October), now comes word that Larimer County Sheriff Justin Smith is mulling a bid. Smith garnered a ton of publicity in 2013 for being the most vocal public official critical of the gun control efforts of Gov. John Hickenlooper. He would immediately be the darling of the very politically active Colorado gun owners rights' crowd, but he did qualify his interest by saying he might defer to Brauchler.

Leading Off:

• IL-10: Opponents of President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran had hoped to make Democratic supporters of the agreement pay a price. But ironically, the only Democrat who's suffered a concrete loss as a result of his views on the deal is former Rep. Brad Schneider, who came out against it. Ex-Rep. Abner Mikva, a revered liberal figure who had been the last Democrat to represent this suburban Chicago seat, pointedly switched his endorsement from Schneider to Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, and now former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III has followed suit.

Not only does Stevenson hail from one of Illinois' most famous political families—his father, Adlai Stevenson II, served as governor and was the Democrats' presidential nominee twice—but he also has deep ties to the 10th District. The Stevenson family home, which was designated a national historical landmark last year, is in the district, as is the Adlai Stevenson Center on Democracy (named after Adlai II), which Stevenson chairs.

Both Schneider and Rotering are hoping to take on GOP Rep. Bob Dold!, who defeated Schneider in a rematch last year.

The NRCC just leaked a batch of five new polls, all conducted by Harper Polling, covering a variety of House races across the country. Unsurprisingly, the results are positive for Republicans:

• AZ-02: Martha McSally (R-inc): 47, state Rep. Victoria Steele (D): 40
              McSally: 48, ex-state Rep. Matt Heinz: 40

• IL-12: Mike Bost (R-inc): 51, attorney C.J. Baricevic (D): 35

• MI-07: Tim Walberg (R-inc): 49, state Rep. Gretchen Driskell (D): 32

• NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R-inc): 51, retired Army Col. Mike Derrick (D): 17, activist Matt Funiciello (G): 13

• NY-24: John Katko (R-inc): 51, college professor Eric Kingson (D): 28

Early House polls are weak predictors of future results, largely because they're testing candidates who are little-known—including the incumbents. But it's fair to say that Democrats have not put much stock in their candidates in either IL-12 or NY-24 and are still looking to recruit stronger alternatives, so you wouldn't expect to see much if you're polling in either district.

In NY-21, Funiciello actually managed to take 11 percent last year, which makes his current take plausible. If Derrick can't find a way to neutralize Funiciello's appeal, Democrats will have a very hard time unseating Stefanik. MI-07 is the one seat where this isn't the first poll we've seen: Revsix showed Driskell beating Walberg 42-37 back in March, though those numbers were probably too optimistic for Driskell.

The softest results of the bunch come in AZ-02, particularly when you bear in mind that these are internal polls, which invariably favor the party releasing them. McSally won the closest House race in the nation last year, so there's every reason to expect another dogfight. Even more importantly, all of these races are apt to be heavily influenced by what happens at the top of the ticket. If these incumbents are actually in the mid-to-high 40s, rather than the high 40s to low 50s, they could all be vulnerable in 2016.

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling often asks insightful questions in his political surveys that help us peer deeply into the Republican id. His latest foray, this time into the minds of GOP voters in Iowa, is incredibly disturbing:

Do you think the religion of Islam should be legal or illegal in the United States?

Legal: 49
Illegal: 30
Not sure: 21

A majority of respondents are either unfamiliar with the First Amendment to the United States Constitution—the part that says "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof"—or they're aware of it but just don't care, or they somehow think it only protects certain religions. Whether ignorance or hatred is at work, these answers are alarming in the extreme.

9:19 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CO-Sen: A new conservative group called Advancing Colorado is out with a negative spot attacking Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's support for the Iran deal. The ad starts with ten children counting down to one in different languages before a mushroom cloud goes off, with the ad panning over the fallout and warning that "a nuclear Iran is a threat to the entire world." Advancing Colorado calls their commercial "shocking," but it's just one of about a billion that rips off Lyndon Johnson's 1964 Daisy ad. Politico says the ad will run for six-figures in the Denver market.

9:27 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IA-Sen: Democratic state Sen. Rob Hogg has been flirting with a bid against GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley months, and he made his candidacy official this week. Democrats aren't at all optimistic that they'll defeat the very popular incumbent next year, but it's always good to have a viable candidate just in case the unexpected occurs. It's unclear if Hogg will make it to the end of the campaign without Joni Ernst trying to castrate him.

9:35 AM PT (Jeff Singer): WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold consistently leads Republican incumbent Ron Johnson in the polls, but conservative groups aren't giving up on their man. The Club For Growth has two new ads, which Politico says are running for a total of $700,000. The first commercial attacks Feingold's 18 years in the Senate, linking him to higher debt and bailouts. The ad doesn't go after any specific Feingold votes; it just notes how much things sucked in the 18 years he was in D.C. The second spot has a similar argument, but set to song. It features a vintage clip of a Feingold 1992 ad while the narrator sings about the "Russ Feingold way."

10:03 AM PT (Jeff Singer): ND-Gov: State Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem and Lt. Gov Drew Wrigley have both talked about running for this open seat, but the two Republicans have reportedly been trying to work out an arrangement where only one of them will go for it. Over the last month, Wrigley has expressed far more public interest than Stenehjem in seeking the promotion, but Stenehjem said on Monday that he's "seriously considering" getting in, his strongest statement to date. Stenehjem's comments come after an independent poll from Telos Associates gave Stenehjem a 57 percent favorable rating, compared to only 36 percent for Wrigley.

Wrigley reaffirmed on Monday that he's still considering, though his statement wasn't incredibly enthusiastic. Wrigley recently admitted to having an extra-marital affair and while the general reaction in North Dakota politics was "meh," the story may make the idea of a gubernatorial bid a bit less appealing, especially if Stenehjem is committed to running.  Telos also tested the favorability of rich guy Doug Burgum, who is considering running as either a Republican or an independent, and gave him a 23 percent favorable rating. Two other prospective GOP candidates, state Sen. Tom Campbell and Treasurer Kelly Schmidt, were not tested.

10:06 AM PT (David Nir): IL-10: Opponents of President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran had hoped to make Democratic supporters of the agreement pay a price, but ironically, the only Democrat who's suffered a concrete loss as a result of his views on the deal is former Rep. Brad Schneider, who came out against it. Ex-Rep. Abner Mikva, a revered liberal figure who had been the last Democrat to represent this suburban Chicago seat, pointedly switched his endorsement from Schneider to Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering, and now former Sen. Adlai Stevenson III has followed suit.

Not only does Stevenson hail from one of Illinois' most famous political families—his father, Adlai Stevenson II, served as governor and was the Democrats' presidential nominee twice—but he also has deep ties to the 10th District. The Stevenson family home, which was designated a national historical landmark last year, is in the district, as is the Adlai Stevenson Center on Democracy (named after Adlai II), which Stevenson chairs.

Both Schneider and Rotering are hoping to take on GOP Rep. Bob Dold!, who defeated Schneider in a rematch last year.

10:14 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MN-02: On Tuesday, ex-state Sen. John Howe kicked off his bid for this open swing seat. Howe gives the GOP their first credible contender here, but he's unlikely to clear the field: Roll Call recently reported that local Republicans see state Sen. Ted Daley as their top prospect. Howe himself comes across as an ok candidate but not marvelous. He can self-fund, but he lost his 2012 re-election bid for the state Senate even as Romney was carrying his district.

10:22 AM PT (David Nir): AZ-Sen: You snooze, you lose: EMILY's List just endorsed Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in her bid to unseat GOP Sen. John McCain (assuming a primary challenger doesn't get to him first), which means EMILY isn't waiting on Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to make up her mind—if it ever was. Sinema still hasn't publicly confirmed whether or not she'll run for Senate, but with the establishment firmly behind Kirkpatrick, Sinema would start at a serious disadvantage if she were to get in now.

10:24 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-13: Democrats have been looking for a credible contender to face Rep. Rodney Davis in this swingy central Illinois seat, and they may have someone. Macon County Commissioner Mark Wicklund recently filed with the FEC, though he hasn't made an announcement. Macon is the second largest county in the 13th but it only contains 16 percent of the seat, so Wicklund wouldn't start with much name recognition. It doesn't help that 2012 Democratic nominee David Gill, who came close to beating Davis, is running as an independent. Two other Democrats have expressed interest in running. (Hat-tip Politics1)

11:01 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-21: Democrats are hoping that presidential turnout will doom sophomore Republican David Valadao in this 55-44 Obama Central Valley seat, but Fowler Councilor Daniel Parra raised a distressingly low amount of money last quarter. While Parra has the support of several labor leaders and the backing of Controller Betty Yee and Senate candidate Loretta Sanchez, national Democrats don't seem ready to stop looking for another candidate.

Certified Public Accountant Connie Perez recently met with the DCCC, and she's do back in D.C. at the end of September. Perez herself also confirms that she's "very strongly considering a run." Parra and his allies are in no hurry to back down though, and they've already begun reminding voters that Perez only recently left the GOP and is currently registered to vote in Pasadena, which is far outside the district.

11:15 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MD-Sen: On Tuesday, Donna Edwards earned an endorsement from the International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers, a group that tends to be politically active. While Democratic primary rival Chris Van Hollen has been securing more endorsements from Maryland politicians, labor has been more divided.

11:19 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CO-Sen: However, Colorado Democrats say the buy is only for $46,000, which the group's director didn't dispute.

11:23 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IL-08: Businessman Raja Krishnamoorthi has picked up endorsements from Illinois State Council of Machinists and the International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 2. Krishnamoorthi faces two other Democrats in the primary and he has a clear edge in money and endorsements so far.

11:42 AM PT (David Nir): AZ-02, IL-12, MI-07, NY-21, NY-24: The NRCC just leaked a batch of five new polls, all conducted by Harper Polling, covering a variety of House races across the country. Unsurprisingly, the results are positive for Republicans:

• AZ-02: Martha McSally (R-inc): 47, state Rep. Victoria Steele (D): 40
              McSally: 48, ex-state Rep. Matt Heinz: 40

• IL-12: Mike Bost (R-inc): 51, attorney C.J. Baricevic (D): 35

• MI-07: Tim Walberg (R-inc): 49, state Rep. Gretchen Driskell (D): 32

• NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R-inc): 51, retired Army Col. Mike Derrick (D): 17, activist Matt Funiciello (G): 13

• NY-24: John Katko (R-inc): 51, college professor Eric Kingson (D): 28

Early House polls are weak predictors of future results, largely because they're testing candidates who are little-known—including the incumbents. But it's fair to say that Democrats have not put much stock in their candidates in either IL-12 or NY-24 and are still looking to recruit stronger alternatives, so you wouldn't expect to see much if you're polling in either district.

In NY-21, Funiciello actually managed to take 11 percent last year, which makes his current take plausible. If Derrick can't find a way to neutralize Funiciello's appeal, Democrats will have a very hard time unseating Stefanik. MI-07 is the one seat where this isn't the first poll we've seen: Revsix showed Driskell beating Walberg 42-37 back in March, though those numbers were probably too optimistic for Driskell.

The softest results of the bunch come in AZ-02, particularly when you bear in mind that these are internal polls, which invariably favor the party releasing them. McSally won the closest House race in the nation last year, so there's every reason to expect another dogfight. Even more importantly, all of these races are apt to be heavily influenced by what happens at the top of the ticket. If these incumbents are actually in the mid-to-high 40s, rather than the high 40s to low 50s, they could all be vulnerable in 2016.

11:44 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: The Washington Post's Wonkblog has a fascinating new chart out showing the differences in housing stock in the nation's 50 largest cities. Single-family detached houses are still dominant in most of the large cities, though there's a big difference in density between older cities, mostly located on the coasts (even Los Angeles, despite its sprawl-y reputation), and newer cities, mostly located inland on flat terrain that lets them expand unimpeded in every direction.

You may be surprised to know that Philadelphia, not New York City, has the lowest percentage of single-family detached homes. The difference, though, is that NYC is dominated by buildings with 20+ units, while Philly (and Baltimore) are dominated by rowhouses, aka single-family attached homes. One other surprise in the opposite direction is how Detroit, which you probably visualize as a gritty streetscape, is actually one of the most single-family-heavy cities.

If you're wondering what the political implications of this are, one answer is that density is becoming a hot topic in many cities (much of the controversy in Seattle's upcoming municipal elections, for instance, is about the usually arcane issue of zoning). But if you look closely at the chart of the rank order of the top 50 cities according to single-family percentage, you'll notice a very strong correlation with how liberal or conservative those cities are. In fact, we crunched the numbers, and the correlation between each city's single-family percentage and its 2012 Obama percentage (based, admittedly in a somewhat apples-to-oranges fashion, on the county it's in, since we don't have prez-by-city data for most places) is a startling -0.76!

(Don't start thinking we've found the Rosetta Stone for political prognostication, though! When you do a more apples-to-apples match, of single-family residence per county vs. 2012 Obama percentage, and do it for every county and not just the ones with major cities, then the correlation is a much less interesting -0.36. The problem is that rural counties have a high single-family percentage, regardless of whether they're blue or red.)

Leading Off:

• LA-Gov: Well, maybe GOP Sen. David Vitter really is worried that he won't take one of the top two spots in the Oct. 24 jungle primary. Vitter's super PAC has been airing a few negative spots against his intra-party rivals, Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, but Vitter and his allies turned the dial up to 11 over the weekend.

Vitter's campaign is out with two new negative ads. Vitter portrays Dardenne as a liberal, arguing he voted for abortion and to raise taxes. The spot also accuses Dardenne of voting against preventing undocumented immigrants from coming into Louisiana. Vitter's anti-Angelle spot links the public service commissioner to Obama: The narrator points out that Angelle used to be a Democrat (he formally switched parties in late 2010), and argues that he raised taxes and voted "to expand the Obamaphone program, to give people on welfare free cell phones and free internet that you paid for."

Vitter's super PAC, Louisiana Future Fund, is also out with another negative commercial. Unlike past ads that targeted both Dardenne and Angelle at once, this one just focuses on Angelle and blames him for not doing enough to stop a sinkhole that ended up displacing 100 families. Vitter does have one new commercial that doesn't go after his foes, where he calls for changes in Louisiana's welfare programs. None of these ads mention state Rep. John Bel Edwards, who is positioned to consolidate the Democratic vote in October and advance to the November runoff.

Vitter and his super PAC have far more money than any of his rivals, but the senator doesn't have the airwaves to himself. Angelle's ad praises him for opposing the Obama administration's drilling moratorium after the 2010 Gulf Coast oil spill. Some recent polls show Angelle threatening Vitter's spot in the runoff. While other polls show both Angelle and Dardenne very far behind Vitter and Edwards, Vitter's new wave of negative spots suggests that he's worried about both Republicans.

9:05 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CO-Sen: While it sounds like the NRSC is about to get their preferred candidate, Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler, another prospective Republican contender isn't deterred so far. State Sen. Tim Neville says he'll make his decision by mid-October.

Neville, who won a tight race in a swing seat last year, has a very conservative record in the legislature. A third Republican, rich guy Robert Blaha, also sounds likely to get in, and he could split whatever anti-establishment vote there is with Neville enough to secure the GOP nomination for Brauchler. The Colorado Independent also notes that state Senate President Bill Cadman and state Senate Majority Leader Mark Scheffel are also prospective candidates, but we haven't heard anything else about their Senate ambitions. The GOP nominee will face Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet in one of Team Red's few Senate pickup opportunities.

9:27 AM PT (Jeff Singer): DE-Gov: Democratic Rep. John Carney announced his gubernatorial bid last week, and it didn't take long for both of Delaware's U.S. senators, Tom Carper and Chris Coons to get behind him. Termed-out Gov. Jack Markell, who narrowly beat Carney in the 2008 primary, has also made it clear that he wants his old rival to succeed him. New Castle County Executive Tom Gordon has made noises about getting in but he's been quiet since Carney kicked off his bid, and he might decide it's better not to take on the Delaware Democratic establishment.

9:35 AM PT (Jeff Singer): FL-23: It's hard to see Rep. and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz losing renomination over her support for the Obama administration's Iran deal, but Miami-Dade County School Board member Martin Karp is continuing to make noises about running. Karp tells the Sun-Sentinel that he expects to decide by Oct. 1 if he'll challenge Wasserman Schultz in the primary for this safely blue South Florida seat. Karp is worth about $3.8 million and he says he's willing to do some self-funding. Still, Wasserman Schultz is a very good fundraiser, and she won't struggle for money if she needs to fend off Karp.

10:01 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-03: Anthony Tata didn't rule out a primary run against Republican Rep. Walter Jones when he resigned as North Carolina secretary of transportation in July, but he recently told The News & Observer that he's "not running for Congress this cycle and probably won’t ever." Tata's probably never going to Congress anyway: The News & Observer reports that Tata may have forged a court order in 2007 to get out of supporting his daughter. Tata's decision is good news for former George W. Bush aide Taylor Griffin, who is hoping to unseat the unpredictable Jones in the primary next year.

10:17 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MS-AG: Attorney General Jim Hood is the last statewide Democrat in the Deep South, and there's no guarantee that he'll defeat former assistant U.S. Attorney Mike Hurst this fall. The Clarion-Ledger's Geoff Pender takes a look at this contest and tells us that Hood launched his first negative ad last week, a sign that he's at least somewhat worried.

However, Hood has some big advantages. The state GOP doesn't appear to be doing much to help Hurst. Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and state House Speaker Philip Gunn are directing most of their attention towards legislative races and to defeating Initiative 42, a measure that would amend the state constitution to require public schools be fully funded. Gov. Phil Bryant has also only directed a paltry amount of his war chest towards aiding Hurst: There's speculation that Bryant is hoarding his campaign money so he can later convert it into his personal retirement fund.

Hood needs Democrats to turn out and he got some bad news when Some Dude Robert Gray won the gubernatorial nomination last month. But Initiative 42 could give Democrats something to get excited about, and help offset apathy towards Gray. Hood can't take anything for granted in a state this red, but it sounds like he still has the edge here in November.

10:27 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: Democrat Jack Conway is out with a new spot that pushes back on the GOP's attempts to tie him to the Obama administration. Conway's narrator praises the candidate for standing up to the EPA to protect Kentucky coal jobs. The ad concludes with Conway saying how important coal is to Kentucky, and with a promise that he'll "stand up to anybody to keep people working here."

11:32 AM PT (David Nir): OR-Gov: Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, who was elevated to the post earlier this year after Gov. John Kitzhaber resigned in disgrace, confirmed on Friday through a consultant that she'll run for the final two years of the current term in next year's special election. Brown had been raising money and setting up a campaign for some time, so the announcement pretty much just checks a box. A few prominent Democrats who'd had designs on a bid in 2018 (when Kitzhaber would have been term-limited) had thought about challenging Brown in the Democratic primary, but just about every notable contender has demurred. Meanwhile, Republicans have been hard-pressed to come up with a legitimate option; so far, only little-known physician Bud Pierce is running.

12:13 PM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: Well, maybe GOP Sen. David Vitter really is worried that he won't take one of the top two spots in the Oct. 24 jungle primary. Vitter's super PAC has been airing a few negative spots against his intra-party rivals, Lt. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, but Vitter and his allies turned the dial up to 11 over the weekend.

Vitter's campaign is out with two new negative ads. Vitter portrays Dardenne as a liberal, arguing he voted for abortion and to raise taxes. The spot also accuses Dardenne of voting against keeping undocumented immigrants from coming into Louisiana. Vitter's anti-Angelle spot links the public service commissioner to Obama: The narrator points out that Angelle used to be a Democrat (he formally switched parties in late 2010), and argues that he raised taxes and voted "to expand the Obamaphone program, to give people on welfare free cell phones and free internet that you paid for."

Vitter's super PAC Louisiana Future Fund is also out with another negative commercial. Unlike past ads that targeted both Dardenne and Angelle at once, this one just focuses on Angelle and blames him for not doing enough to stop a sinkhole that ended up displacing 100 families. Vitter does have one new commercial that doesn't mention his foes, where he calls for changes in Louisiana's welfare programs. None of these ads mention state Rep. John Bel Edwards, who looks positioned to consolidate the Democratic vote in October and advance to the November runoff.

Vitter and his super PAC have far more money than any of his rivals, but the senator doesn't have the airwaves to himself. Angelle's ad praises him for opposing the Obama administration's drilling moratorium after the 2010 Gulf Coast oil spill. Some recent polls show Angelle threatening Vitter's spot in the runoff. While other polls show both Angelle and Dardenne very far behind Vitter and Edwards, Vitter's new wave of negative spots suggests that he's worried about both Republicans.

12:17 PM PT (David Nir): PA-Sen: Republican pollster Harper Polling new Pennsylvania poll shows a massive collapse for GOP Sen. Pat Toomey ... is what we'd write if we were mendacious fools. But it is true that Harper's gaudy May numbers for the incumbent are no more: In a matchup with Democratic ex-Rep. Joe Sestak, Toomey now leads 47-37; four months ago, he was up 53-32. That brings Harper much closer to where Quinnipiac has seen the race, though we've been wondering whether Quinnipiac is finding a much more Republican electorate than is plausible.

Harper also says that former state environmental secretary Katie McGinty trails Toomey by a wide margin, too, 48-34. Establishment Democrats seem to think she's more electable than Sestak, but given her limited name recognition, such a finding has yet to show up in the polls. The survey did not test Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, who recently entered the Democratic primary.

12:45 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MN-08: Rich guy Stewart Mills narrowly failed to unseat Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan last year, but he's made it no secret that he's looking to try again. Mills recently announced that he has formed an exploratory committee "with an eye to a possible mid-October announcement if everything comes together." Mills previously argued that Nolan only won because Sen. Al Franken was also carrying this Iron Range seat and that Nolan won't benefit from having a popular Minnesota Democrat at the top of the ticket in 2016. Of course, Obama carried this district 52-46, and Mills can't count on a GOP wave boosting him again.

1:10 PM PT (David Nir): FL-Sen: Among the many issues that Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson faces over the multiple hedge funds he owns and manages, chief among them is that he shouldn't even have 'em in the first place—at least, according to every expert who, citing House ethics rules, has weighed in on the subject. Grayson's steadfastly refused to divest himself of his funds, though, insisting he's done no wrong. But he did just cave on one issue: He's changed the name of his investment company, the Grayson Fund Management Company, to Sibylline Fund Management.

That's because the House rules also forbid members from using their names in connection with such businesses. Of course, a Grayson spokesman claimed once again that his boss did "nothing wrong," but says that "it's easier to change the name than to argue about it." This is sort of the political equivalent of pointing and shouting, "Hey, look over there!" while running off in the other direction. But if the House Ethics Committee decides to investigate either of the two complaints filed over Grayson's funds, this stunt is, safe to say, not likely to work.

P.S. "Sibylline" is either a reference to an ancient Greek collection of oracular utterances known as the Sibylline Books, or a later work called the Sibylline Oracles, "a miscellaneous collection of Jewish and Christian portents of future disasters."

1:18 PM PT (Jeff Singer): VT-Gov: Former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine never seemed very enthusiastic about a third run for governor, so it comes as no surprise that he's instead endorsing ex-state Secretary of Transportation Sue Minter. Minter faces state House Speaker Shap Smith and ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne in the Democratic primary, but there may be room for one more contender. Back in June, well-known diplomat and former state Sen. Peter Galbraith expressed interest in getting in. While Galbraith has said little about his 2016 plans since then, the Rutland Herald reports that he's still considering it.

On the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is the establishment favorite against former Wall Street executive Bruce Lisman, and it doesn't sound like any other notable contenders will jump in. 2012 nominee Randy Brock and 2014 nominee Scott Milne both initially talked about running, but they've now both talking about campaigning for Scott's open seat instead.

We don't have any horserace polls here, but the Castleton Polling Institute gives us a look at the candidates' favorability scores. Scott posts an insane 70-9 percent favorable rating, which explains why the GOP wanted him to run so badly. Smith has a solid 52-27 score, while Minter and Dunne are more anonymous at 39-13 and 39-19 respectively. Lisman clocks in at 36-23, though he may have the money to boost his image.

1:43 PM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-Gov: Tom Sugar, a longtime top aide to ex-Sen. Evan Bayh, announced on Monday that he would not challenge GOP incumbent Mike Pence next year. Sugar's move comes as a surprise: About a week ago, he strongly hinted that he was about to jump in. Sugar's statement doesn't leave much ambiguity about why he's not going for it though:

At the same time, the Indiana Democratic Party and many of its key financial supporters did all they could to discourage my campaign, fearing a primary challenge to John Gregg. I believe this is wrongheaded and hope to live long enough to see the day when Hoosier Democrats begin to behave like winners, confident enough to welcome new leaders, new energy and new ideas. Sadly, it doesn’t appear this will be the case in 2016.

Sugar was the last notable Democrat who was making any noises about challenging 2012 nominee John Gregg in the primary. Gregg has been consolidating support and raising money over the last few months, and he should now have little trouble winning his party's nomination again.

1:48 PM PT (David Nir): PA-Sen: In the primary, Harper puts Sestak up 40-30 on McGinty, with the remainder undecided. Again, no Fetterman.

1:55 PM PT (Jeff Singer): AK-AL: Back in May, state Rep. Lance Pruitt talked about challenging longtime Rep. Don Young in the GOP primary, but he didn't sound like he was chomping at the bit to go for it. And sure enough, the Alaska Dispatch News reports that Pruitt has quietly filed to run for re-election instead. So far, Young doesn't have any credible primary foes: While 2010 Senate nominee Joe Miller and ex-Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell have been mentioned as possible contenders, they haven't made any obvious moves towards running.

1:59 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MN-02: On Sunday, Democratic state Rep. Rick Hansen announced that he would not run for this open swing seat. Two wealthy Democrats, health care executive Angie Craig and physician Mary Lawrence, are already in, and state Rep. Joe Atkins is still considering.

2:07 PM PT (David Nir): PA-AG: By all rights, it should be over for Kathleen Kane now: The Pennsylvania Supreme Court, in response to Kane's indictment on perjury charges, just suspended her license to practice law. According to the state's constitution, that ought to preclude her from serving as attorney general; it reads, in relevant part: "No person shall be eligible to the office of Attorney General except a member of the bar of the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania."

However, the court was careful to note that its order "should not be construed as removing [Kane] from elected office." And technically speaking, she still is a member of the bar, albeit not one in good standing since her license was just pulled. That's probably not the kind of loophole that the authors of the Pennsylvania constitution were hoping to create.

Kane, as ever, is refusing to budge. She says she's reviewing the court's ruling and her attorney insists that there's "another side to this story that the public has never heard." But if that's the case, why haven't we heard it yet? Just post something on Facebook already. Anyhow, Kane still faces potential impeachment and removal by the legislature, no matter how many "likes" she gets.

2:07 PM PT (Jeff Singer): TX-19: State Rep. Dustin Burrows has announced that he'll be staying out of the emerging contest for this safely red open Panhandle seat. So far, three notable Republicans have expressed interest in running to succeed retiring Rep. Randy Neugebauer, and plenty of others have been mentioned. Texas has an early Dec. 14 filing deadline, so things shouldn't take too long to take shape.

2:16 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MN-02: On the GOP side, state Rep. Steve Drazkowski has also ruled out running. Local Republicans recently told Roll Call that they were afraid that Drazkowski was too conservative to win in a presidential year, so Team Red probably won't be sorry to lose him. The GOP doesn't have a viable candidate here yet, but other Minnesota Republicans are considering.

2:20 PM PT (Jeff Singer): WA-Gov: Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant may not be exciting, but influential Republicans are consolidating behind him. Ex-Sen. Slade Gorton joins ex-Gov. Dan Evans in Bryant's corner. Rep. Dave Reichert hasn't ruled out a bid against Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, but Gorton and Evans moves indicate that they expect him to stay out.

2:26 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NH-01: To no one's shock, ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter has announced that she will once again challenge Republican incumbent Frank Guinta for this swing seat. This would be the fourth Guinta-Shea-Porter match: Guinta unseated her in 2010 and 2014, and she beat him in 2012. However, Guinta has more immediate worries. 2014 primary foe Dan Innis is preparing to face Guinta again, and the GOP establishment is convinced that a long-running campaign finance scandal has turned the congressman into damaged goods. Shea-Porter also doesn't have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Businessman Shawn O'Connor has been running here for a while, and he hasn't been shy about self-funding his bid.

2:31 PM PT (Jeff Singer): NC-Sen: On Monday, Spring Lake Mayor Chris Rey became the first Democrat to enter the race against Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Spring Lake is a small community and Rey starts out with minimal name recognition. But Rey, who earned a Bronze Star in the military, has a good profile, and he may have the connections he needs to raise serious money. Several other Tar Heel State Democrats are considering getting in.

Well, maybe GOP Sen. David Vitter really is worried that he won't take one of the top two spots in the Oct. 24 Louisiana gubernatorial jungle primary. Vitter's super PAC has been airing a few negative spots against his intra-party rivals, Lt. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, but Vitter and his allies turned the dial up to 11 over the weekend.

Vitter's campaign is out with two new negative ads. Vitter portrays Dardenne as a liberal, arguing he voted for abortion and to raise taxes. The spot also accuses Dardenne of voting against keeping undocumented immigrants from coming into Louisiana. Vitter's anti-Angelle spot links the public service commissioner to Obama: The narrator points out that Angelle used to be a Democrat (he formally switched parties in late 2010), and argues that he raised taxes and voted "to expand the Obamaphone program, to give people on welfare free cell phones and free internet that you paid for."

Vitter's super PAC Louisiana Future Fund is also out with another negative commercial. Unlike past ads that targeted both Dardenne and Angelle at once, this one just focuses on Angelle and blames him for not doing enough to stop a sinkhole that ended up displacing 100 families. Vitter does have one new commercial that doesn't mention his foes, where he calls for changes in Louisiana's welfare programs. None of these ads mention state Rep. John Bel Edwards, who looks positioned to consolidate the Democratic vote in October and advance to the November runoff.

Vitter and his super PAC have far more money than any of his rivals, but the senator doesn't have the airwaves to himself. Angelle's ad praises him for opposing the Obama administration's drilling moratorium after the 2010 Gulf Coast oil spill. Some recent polls show Angelle threatening Vitter's spot in the runoff. While other polls show both Angelle and Dardenne very far behind Vitter and Edwards, Vitter's new wave of negative spots suggests that he's worried about both Republicans.

Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood is the last statewide Democrat in the Deep South, and there's no guarantee that he'll defeat former assistant U.S. Attorney Mike Hurst this fall. The Clarion-Ledger's Geoff Pender takes a look at this contest and tells us that Hood launched his first negative ad last week, a sign that he's at least somewhat worried.

However, Hood has some big advantages. The state GOP doesn't appear to be doing much to help Hurst. Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and state House Speaker Philip Gunn are directing most of their attention towards legislative races and to defeating Initiative 42, a measure that would amend the state constitution to require public schools be fully funded. Gov. Phil Bryant has also only directed a paltry amount of his war chest towards aiding Hurst: There's speculation that Bryant is hoarding his campaign money so he can later convert it into his personal retirement fund.

Hood needs Democrats to turn out and he got some bad news when Some Dude Robert Gray won the gubernatorial nomination last month. But Initiative 42 could give Democrats something to get excited about, and help offset apathy towards Gray. Hood can't take anything for granted in a state this red, but it sounds like he still has the edge here in November.

Leading Off:

• VA State Senate: This fall, Democrats are hoping to net the one seat in the Virginia state Senate that they'll need to retake control of the chamber. Campaign finance reports are in for the period covering July 1 to Aug. 31, giving us a good look at both sides' strengths in the critical races as we enter the homestretch. Below is a look at the six main seats to watch: Three are held by Democrats, and three by the GOP.

Team Blue's best pickup opportunity is SD-10, an open Richmond-area seat that Obama won 50-48. Via the Virginia Public Access Project, Chesterfield County Supervisor Dan Gecker, the Democratic nominee, currently holds a wide $152,000 to $40,000 cash-on-hand edge against Richmond School Board member Glen Sturtevant, a big turnaround from the GOP's $96,000 to $72,000 advantage two months ago. However, Sturtevant outspent Gecker $174,000 to $99,000 during this timeframe. Both parties will fight bitterly for this seat.

Head below the fold to learn about the rest of the Virginia Senate battleground.

9:00 AM PT (David Nir): FL Redistricting: Both sides in Florida's congressional redistricting litigation have submitted proposed new maps to the court, and Matt Isbel has analyzed the various alternatives here. The judge hearing the case will now either pick one map, mix-and-match from the choices before him, or conclude that none of the options he's faced with are satisfactory. And then everything will almost certainly go back before the state Supreme Court before it's all over, so it'll be a while yet before we know what Florida's new lines look like.

9:43 AM PT (Jeff Singer): VA State Senate: This fall, Democrats are hoping to net the one seat in the Virginia state Senate that they'll need to retake control of the chamber. Campaign finance reports are in for the period covering July 1 to Aug. 31, giving us a good look at both sides' strengths in the critical races as we enter the homestretch. Below is a look at the six main seats to watch: Three are held by Democrats, and three by the GOP.

Team Blue's best pickup opportunity is SD-10, an open Richmond-area seat that Obama won 50-48. Via the Virginia Public Access Project, Democratic Chesterfield County Supervisor Dan Gecker currently holds a huge $152,000 to $40,000 cash on hand edge against Richmond School Board member Glen Sturtevant, a big switch from the GOP's $96,000 to $72,000 advantage two months before. Gecker did outraise Sturtevant during this time but Sturtevant also outspent Gecker $174,000 to $99,000. Both parties are expected to fight tooth and nail for this seat.

Democrats have been targeting Republican incumbent Frank Wagner in the swingy Hampton Roads SD-07, but Democratic candidate Gary McCollum has been earning bad press in recent days. Democratic nominee Gary McCollum has said in his campaign and business literature that he's "currently a major in the Army Reserve," but the Army confirmed that he was discharged in 2001. McCollum's campaign says that until now, he thought he was still in the Army Reserve and hasn't has any contact with them since 1992. The good news for McCollum is that he's been competitive with Wagner financially, though the incumbent holds a $522,000 to $472,000 cash on hand edge. If this story blows over McCollum will have the resources to be competitive, but that's a big if.

Democrats are also hoping to score a pickup in Northern Virginia's SD-13, but it's a bit of a long shot. GOP state Sen. Dick Black has a well-earned reputation for extremism, and pediatrician Jill McCabe only trails him $289,000 to $274,000 in cash. But Romney carried this seat 51-48 and Black easily won in 2011 when another Democrat who tried to make this race a referendum on Black's views.

The GOP's main target is Northern Virginia's open SD-29. Obama easily carried this seat but Democrats are worried about off-year turnout, and the GOP has a strong candidate in Manassas Mayor Hal Parrish. Parrish leads Democrat Jeremy McPike $218,000 to $103,000, and that's after Parrish outspent McPike $164,000 to $70,000 over the last two months.

Another vulnerable Democratic seat is SD-21 in Roanoke. Democrats usually carry this district by good margins, but Democratic Roanoke Commonwealth’s Attorney Don Caldwell recently entered the race as an independent. Democratic incumbent John Edwards does have a $169,000 to $105,000 cash on hand lead against GOP physician Nancy Dye, with Caldwell having $37,000 on hand.

The final major GOP target is Lynwood Lewis in Hampton Roads' SD-06. While Obama easily carried this seat, Lewis only won his 2014 special election by 11 votes. The good news for Team Blue is that Republican Richard Ottinger hasn't been a very strong fundraiser at all: Lewis holds a strong $178,000 to $34,000 cash on hand lead against Ottinger, and that's after easily outspending him. Still, after Lewis' close call last time, Democrats aren't taking this race for granted.

10:12 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: Until now, Republican Matt Bevin has been surprisingly reluctant to air any ads for the general election. But we finally have our inaugural Bevin spot, which compares him to Democrat Jack Conway. The commercial parodies the opening of an NFL game, with a dramatic announcer contrasting Conway's "Team Obama" with Bevin's "Team Kentucky." To Bevin's credit, this commercial is a bit more creative than the usual "Red state Democrat equals Obama!" GOP ads we usually get.

10:23 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Downballot: Nathaniel Rakich of Baseballot takes a dive into 2015's downballot contests and to no one's surprise, most of the competitive races are in Kentucky. However, Democrats may have an outside shot at flipping the Louisiana lieutenant governor's office, while Mississippi's Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood looks favored to hold on. Check out Rakich's post for a race-by-race look at these contests.

10:27 AM PT (David Nir): FL Ballot: Last year, 58 percent of Florida voters voted in favor of a ballot measure that would have legalized medical marijuana, yet it failed to pass into law. How was such a thing possible? Because a decade ago, Republicans succeeded in passing an amendment to the state constitution that raised the bar for future amendments, requiring them to clear 60 percent for passage instead of a simple majority. Since the GOP has a hammerlock on the state legislature, this new rule made it much harder for liberals to go around lawmakers and approach voters directly, as the marijuana vote demonstrated.

But scoring 58 percent for a progressive cause in a dreadful midterm election was actually quite a good showing, so supporters are trying again next year. And new polling from PPP brings positive news, with 63 percent saying they support the measure while just 29 percent are opposed.

That may yet change, of course, if opponents decide to fight it again. But at this point, medical marijuana is like the civil unions of weed: With multiple states legalizing recreational usage, the battle has already moved ahead. As Tom Jensen observes, young voters overwhelmingly favor medical marijuana by a 75-18 margin, so trying to stand in the way is a hopeless endeavor.

10:40 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IN-03: On Thursday, the Club For Growth threw its support behind state Sen. Jim Banks in the crowded GOP primary to succeed Senate candidate Marlin Stutzman. Banks also has the support of the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks, but the Club usually spends far more in primaries than these other anti-establishment groups. Banks faces fellow state Sen. Liz Brown, wealthy farmer Kip Tom, and ex-Wisconsin state Sen. Pam Galloway in the primary for this safely red Fort Wayne-area seat.  

10:58 AM PT (Jeff Singer): MI State House: Some people just cannot take a hint. The Michigan state House recently expelled Cindy Gamrat, with fellow Republican state Rep. Todd Courser resigning just before he was also about to be expelled. The two representatives, who are both married to other people, had an affair and tried to cover it up by concocting an insane scheme: Courser would craft rumors that he solicited a male prostitute so that when his actual scandal leaked, it would seem mild in comparison. GOP leaders hoped that once Courser and Gamrat were gone they could put this whole embarrassing chapter behind them, but both former representatives have other plans. Courser and Gamrat have each announced that they'll run in the special elections that were called to replace them.

The primaries will be held Nov. 3 and the GOP usually has little trouble in either state House seat. Romney won Gamrat's southwestern seat 58-41, and took Courser's Thumb district 55-44. Several Republicans are running for each district so it's not completely impossible for either scandal-tarred politician to slip through: In fact, it might be the least insane part of this story. If that happened it might give Team Blue a shot in the March generals. At the very least though, Michigan Republicans won't be happy to learn that Courser and Gamrat won't make like a tree and get out.

11:21 AM PT (Jeff Singer): CO-Sen: Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler says he won't announce if he'll challenge Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet until early October, but it sounds like he's going for it. Brauchler recently told the Colorado Independent that he's made his choice and would really like to tell the world his decision sooner, but he knows "there are ramifications for making certain announcements — ramifications that affect my office, my family and others. And I don’t want to make a pre-announcement announcement."

Brauchler soon apologized for his vagueness, but his statement actually speaks volumes. If Brauchler had chosen not to run, there's no reason he couldn't just say so immediately and give the GOP a little extra time to find someone else. But by waiting until early October to announce, Brauchler will be able to kick off his effort after the campaign finance reporting deadline has passed instead of needing to quickly scramble in September to pick off as much low-hanging fruit as possible. Of course, it's always possible Brauchler backtracks: Florida's Jeff Miller gave every indication he was running for Senate this summer but surprised everyone when he announced he wouldn't go for it after all.

But if Brauchler runs as he sounds likely to do, that's good news for the GOP. The party has had a difficult time recruiting a tough candidate against Bennet and Brauchler has a good profile as the chief lawyer in a large, swingy county. Brauchler has also been in the news quite a bit recently as he successfully prosecuted the 2012 Aurora theater shooter, though Brauchler wasn't able to secure the death penalty.

11:29 AM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-01: We recently noted that Tom O’Halleran, a former Republican state senator running as a Democrat, recently earned an endorsement from ex-Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard. It turns out that O’Halleran has been doing an even better job at making inroads with his new party: O’Halleran has the support of 2014 gubernatorial nominee Fred DuVal and Felicia Rotellini, who lost close races for attorney general in 2010 and 2014. The Arizona Republic also says that about a quarter of legislative Democrats are behind O’Halleran even though two of their own, state Sens. Catherine Miranda and Barbara McGuire, are considering running.

11:44 AM PT (Jeff Singer): DE-AL: Rep. John Carney is leaving this seat behind to run for governor, and a number of Delaware Democrats are looking at succeeding him. State Sen. Bryan Townsend has already kicked off his campaign and state Rep. Bry­on Short sounds likely to join him in the primary, and the National Journal's Kimberly Railey gives us some new names.

Former state Rep. Dennis Williams (not to be confused with the Wilmington mayor with the same name) says he's seriously considering. Marla Blunt Carter, who worked as a state director for the 2008 Obama campaign, and her sister, former Delaware Secretary of Labor Lisa Blunt Rochester, are also considering. Blunt Carter says the two expect to decide their plans in early 2016, and made it clear that they wouldn't run against one another. Sean Barney, a former advisor to Gov. Jack Markell, is also reportedly leaning toward running. Barney lost the 2014 treasurer race to Republican Kenneth Simpler, though his ties to Markell could help him with Democrats who aren't happy with his loss. But Markell himself says that he won't seek this seat. The Democratic nominee is expected to easily prevail in the general.

11:50 AM PT (Jeff Singer): NH-01: While influential New Hampshire Republicans have called for Rep. Frank Guinta to resign after he paid the FEC a fine for an illegal six-figure donation, he's maintained that he'll seek another term. Guinta is holding a fundraiser Sept. 22, so he seems to be backing up his words with action. Guinta's 2014 primary rival Dan Innis has filed to run again, and if Guinta wants to win renomination and prevail in the general in this swing seat, he'll need all the money he can get. Then again, taking all the money he could get is what got Guinta into this situation in the first place.

12:15 PM PT (Jeff Singer): TX-19: Rep. Randy Neugebauer's decision to retire seems to have caught a lot of people by surprise, and it's going to take a while for things to sort themselves out in this safely red Panhandle seat. Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson considered challenging Neugebauer at the beginning of the year before deciding to stay put, but he says that he's thinking about running now that there's an open seat. Lubbock County Republican Party Chairman Carl Tepper also confirms that he's interested as has businesswoman Cathy Landtroop, the wife of a former state representative. State Rep. Dustin Burrows also didn't rule anything out in his statement praising Neugebauer.

The GOP bench is massive here, and Roll Call, the Texas Tribune, and the Amarillo Globe-News give us plenty of other possible candidates. Tom Sell, who is a business partner of former Rep. Larry Combest, has been getting a lot of attention. Some other names worth watching include attorney Allen Adkins; former George W. Bush aide and ex-Texas Tech Vice Chancellor Jodey Arrington; former state Rep. Carl Isett; state Rep. Susan King; and Texas Tech Board of Regents member John Steinmetz. Toby Neugebauer, the congressman's wealthy son, has also been mentioned: When Rep. Neugebauer was asked if it's likely that Toby will run, he replied "[n]ot really, no," which isn't quite a no.

12:43 PM PT (David Jarman): WA-Lt. Gov.: Since time immemorial -- or at least 1996 -- Democrat Brad Owen's meal ticket has been being Washington's Lieutenant Governor (a job that probably doesn't even need to exist, since his only job other than waiting for the Governor to die is to break ties in the state Senate, which doesn't have ties because it has an odd number (49) of members). Instead, Owen has spent most of his time focusing on his personal non-profit organization, Strategies for Youth. Through SFY, his main activity is traveling the state with his band, playing anti-drug assemblies for public school students -- in fact, he was fined $15,000 by the state ethics board in 2014 for using state resources on this hobby.

Owen may have gotten the message that the state's tired of his shtick, and earlier in 2015 it was leaked that he was considering retirement. Well, now a rising star is giving Owen a helpful push out the door; 34-year-old Democratic state Sen. Cyrus Habib -- who replaced turncoat Rodney Tom in the Senate in 2014 -- announced that he will run for Lt. Governor in 2016, regardless of Owen's plans. (Habib -- who is blind, and also a former Rhodes scholar -- has a pretty remarkable biography.)

1:31 PM PT (Jeff Singer): TX-19: Former George W. Bush aide and ex-Texas Tech Vice Chancellor Jodey Arrington sounds the most interested of the potential candidates, and he said on Friday that he'll make an announcement "in the coming days." Arrington ran for the state Senate in a 2014 special but lost to another Republican 53 to 30.

1:35 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Sen: The final step in Sen. Rand Paul's plan to run for president and for re-election in 2016 is complete. Last month, the Kentucky GOP voted to hold a March caucus as long as Paul sent them the $250,000 they needed to pay for it, and he forked over the money on Friday. Paul will run for renomination in May's previously scheduled primary, allowing him to circumvent a Kentucky law that prohibits candidates from appearing twice on the same ballot.

1:39 PM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: The Democratic super PAC Kentucky Family Values is also out with a new ad. Like basically every Democratic spot in this race, they portray Bevin as a shady character, arguing that he "failed to tell the truth about having a federal tax lien when he filled out an application for his company and received a $100,000 taxpayer bailout."

1:51 PM PT (Jeff Singer): MN-02: A number of Republicans are still considering running for this open swing seat, and Roll Call's Simone Pathé helps us get a feel for the potential field. GOP operatives think that former state Sen. Ted Daley is the most formidable possible candidate. Daley's military service and "squeaky clean" reputation give him a good profile, and he's described as a conservative who doesn't come across as a "bomb thrower." Daley lost his 2012 re-election campaign, though his 53 to 47 defeat wasn't much different than Romney's 53 to 45 defeat in his district.

John Howe, another former state senator, has promised to decide soon. Howe is capable of self-funding but his 52 to 47 defeat in a district that Romney carried doesn't send the best message about his chances here. State Rep. Tony Albright is viewed as credible, but not top tier. State Rep. Steve Drazkowski and ex-state Rep. Pam Myhra are also considering, but Republicans fear they may be too conservative to win in a presidential year. Only former Kline foe and tea party gadfly David Gerson is running for Team Red right now: Gerson may be able to cost Drazkowski some support in a GOP primary, but he's not likely to win the nomination himself.