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India elections: daily wrap
On Friday we look at the great difficulties of organising an election in the world’s largest democracy. The rupee crossed 60 to the US dollar, as foreign investors pour into India’s equity markets. And politicians start to worry that their skin won’t cope with the heat, sleep and diet that come with electioneering.
India 2014 – it’s about time for a weekend break.
New York morning espresso
** FT News **
* Total and Lukoil in talks over shale deal | France’s Total and Russia’s Lukoil are talking about shale project partnerships in Russia at a time when production from traditional fields is falling
* Rupee gains on India election fever | Markets are betting on an election victory for Narendra Modi, chief minister of Gujurat – a state often lauded as India’s most investor-friendly
* Good news from bad in China | The country’s economy has had a disappointing performance of late and credit problems are a big risk, but investor reaction suggests it is priced in Continue reading »
Scandal-weary Slovaks set to derail PM’s presidential bid
Kiska (left) and Fico: victory of the underdog?
By Tom Nicholson of bne in Bratislava
It’s been over a decade since Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has been an underdog in any election. But his assertive campaign to capture the country’s highest office – the presidency – in the March 29 crucial run-off ballot suddenly looks vulnerable to the challenge of a rank political outsider. Continue reading »
Guest post: Bratušek dodged bailout but is tepid on reform
By Sašo Stanovnik of Alta Invest
Just one year ago, after public protests and a corruption scandal had brought down Slovenia’s centre-right government, a little-known former civil servant stepped to the fore. To the surprise of many, Alenka Bratušek successfully concluded negotiations to form a centre-left coalition, becoming the first woman prime minister of Slovenia in the process.
It was a brave – or possibly foolhardy – act. Continue reading »
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India election: corruption and the limits of logistics
Every time it runs an Indian general election, the Election Commission (EC) has to manage the largest democratic exercise in history. This time it will have dealt with up to 825m voters by the time ballots are counted on May 16, and the EC is understandably proud of its logistical efficiency and of its record of ensuring free and fair procedures on the days that people vote. Continue reading »
London morning espresso
** FT News **
* Turkey blocks access to YouTube | Turkey blocks access to YouTube after a recording of the country’s defence minister and its spy chief appears on the platform
* Old constraints spike Kremlin’s firepower | Experts say Moscow would be foolish to attempt further deployment of its largely underprepared Continue reading »
Consumers, Nigeria are focus for Africa PE funds
South Africa, the African continent’s largest economy, had better take note. West Africa, an area that includes Nigeria, has for the third time in three years notched up more private equity (PE) deals than Southern Africa.
West Africa had the highest reported value of deals ($545m) during 2013, surpassing Southern Africa ($491m) and Eastern Africa ($163m), according to the 2014 Deloitte’s East Africa Private Equity Confidence Survey, published this month. Continue reading »
Mixed signals amid Rousseff polls
Normally investors buy on rumour and sell on fact. In Brazil this month, the reverse seemed to happen. Investors last week began buying stocks on a rumour that President Dilma Rousseff had fallen in opinion polls.
A polling agency, Ibope, then released a poll on voters’ intentions regarding candidates in the planned presidential election this October, showing her holding steady compared with her opposition opponents, disappointing the market punters. Continue reading »
Five “mysteries” in Zimbabwe’s deepening crisis
Zimbabwe is suffering from capital flight, a liquidity crunch, regular power outages, falling commodity prices and other manifestations of an economic crisis.
But beyond these well-documented woes, there are several “mysteries” that throw up searching governance questions for the regime of Robert Mugabe, the 90-year-old president. Continue reading »
[video] Risk assessment is upside down
Fundamentally we don’t know what’s going on, says Jerome Booth, author of ‘Emerging Markets in an Upside Down World’, because of problems with economic theory. In the first of a two-part video, he tells John Authers why greater risk is in the developed world rather than emerging markets.
India elections: daily wrap
Today, we have questioned stability in an election where major state-based parties have so far refused to take sides.
And we questioned data on economic growth at the state level – data that many of India’s politicians are flaunting ahead of the polls. Continue reading »
South Africa holds rates as economy stutters
South Africa kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday as Africa’s largest economy continues to grapple with the policy challenge of subdued growth set against inflationary pressures.
The decision by the central bank’s monetary policy committee to keep its repo rate at 5.5 per cent was expected as the volatile rand has recovered slightly from a disastrous beginning to the year when it tumbled to five year lows against the US dollar. Still, the MPC’s decision was a tight one, with a four-to-three split on the committee. Continue reading »
China smog a boon for EM suppliers of LNG
The thick smog that blankets many Chinese cities represents a vast commercial opportunity for emerging market suppliers of gas, a clean-burning fuel.
As pollution levels approached choking point this winter, China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) surged 38 per cent – partly because of a deepening environmental consciousness and partly because temperatures plumbed 28-year lows, analysts said. Continue reading »
Indonesia elections: the first-timers offering hope for change
With Indonesia’s parliament and political parties having earned a popular reputation for corruption, waste and venality, many voters are uninspired by April 9’s legislative elections.
But amid the party hacks, elite offspring and celebrities standing for election, there is a crop of first-time parliamentary candidates who are promising to be clean, effective and responsive.
Young, professional and social media-savvy, they are targeting some of the 50m plus voters under 30 years of age (out of an electorate of 186m), with 21.8m of them first time voters. To give an insight into the strengths, weakness and quirks of the Indonesian electoral system, beyondbrics will be tracking the progress of one such candidate, Taufik Basari. Continue reading »
Guest post: the fast-track fight against Ukraine’s corruption
By Oleg Batyuk
The barricades are still being dismantled in the Maidan but we are already witnessing a significant step-change in how business is done in Ukraine. While the world is watching events in Crimea with fearfully bated breath, Kiev is not losing any time in implementing serious and rapid changes to its business landscape.
A key risk of doing business in Ukraine, particularly in the past five years, has been the spreading culture of corporate raiding. This process is already being reversed. Continue reading »
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