You know, the guy you want in EVERY draft because they're such a great value at their ADP only to seriously disappoint you and your team?

Just to be clear I'm totally not talking about myself drafting Allen Robinson in three leagues last year.

A player going in the top-35 and bust due to a poor bears team last season.

Which players do you think will go in the early rounds (first 4 rounds) and will be useless throughout the season?

Fields threw it 32 times. 4 targets, 2 catches in a blowout from the start. ARob can normally produce even with a bad QB, but not this year. 🤦‍♂️

Dude has scored less than 11 points in full PPR in all 4 weeks so far this year and so far it looks like when Fields plays, Mooney is the no.1 target. Selling low on him right now seems like you will get nothing for him and almost zero return on his ADP. Only thing I can think of to try and fix it is try and sell low to someone else selling low on another player that has potential to turn it around but that seems a long shot.

Dude is in a terrible passing offense and once again has had a dud week. What do we make of this guy with Fields? He simply isn’t getting the yardage to warrant him as a startable WR.

For an explanation on how FGW is calculated, go back to .

TL;DR: FGW is the number of games a player is likely to have won (or lost) for your fantasy team. For example, if a player scored so much that he increased an average team's chance of winning from 50% to 90%, and he was started 100% of the time, that's a FGW score of 0.4 (90% minus 50%). If he was started only half of the time, and an approximate replacement player would dropped the win percentage from 50% to 40%, that comes out to an FGW of 0.15 (50% of the +0.4, and 50% of the -0.1).

This is an abbreviated version of my full post on my website here:

Super late this week. Blame work and kids. I pulled the stats on time - just all my English transcription was put on hold.

One of the great things about 2021 was watching the Allen Robinson start off bad. Then, he stayed bad.

A few people jumped off the A-Rob wagon, but not all. Then he was bad again.

Robinson actually had a similar per-game fantasy PPG to players like Braxton Berrios (5.6). Looking back on 2021 only by points, though, might not reveal that Berrios didn’t really hurt any fantasy teams as he was barely started. Robinson, meanwhile, decimated many a team, especially in the first few weeks of the year.

I’m not going to compare the two respective Allen Robinsons yet, as the scoring system changed, but what's obvious is this – the 2022 model is seeing % started drop off faster. In 2021, there was almost no benching until Week 4 (drop from 72% to 43%).

Who Won Week 4?

• Hey, it’s the one good TJ Hockenson week! Nice to see you, again!

• Justin “Jordan” Jefferson shaking the “Dad Naming” curse after a week, it appears.

• Josh Jacobs? Speaking of, is Matthew Berry “dead” at this point? 2019 Ride or Die pick, right? Maybe he's riding it like .

• Yeah, Derrick Henry is probably in Act 2 of Terminator 2. He’s not done yet.

• For all the talk about Tua, ? By all rights his brain should be mush after that hit. It had the whiplash and everything.

• DeVonta Smith just . (EDIT: I updated the chart after writing this. Smith was 16th worst.)

• Kyle Pitts is on track to be the 2nd best Tight End Named Kyle to be drafted in the top 10 picks in NFL history. The Jets at least got some touchdowns out of Kyle Brady.

• Gabe! Go back to Gabriel!

• The Dad Naming Curse is real! Amari “Amani” Cooper has it! I don’t have the next dad curse – you can't force these things - though if I had sacrificed a bit more sleep this week we could be at like 10 of them.

• Fellow Jonathan Taylor owners:

The Leaderboards

• Just feel the need to mention that Josh Allen had a 56% completion percentage in college and basically none of us would have taken him over Sam Darnold.

• Cooper Kupp could probably start a college called Wide Receiver College and lay down enough football knowledge to fill 8 semesters.

• Travis Kelce still ahead of Mark Andrews. Not in fanfare, but in helpfulness.

• Jalen Hurts is demonstrating the same impact pattern as Lamar Jackson week-to-week.

• I’m now referring to Patrick Mahomes’ weapons as the Legion of Last Names. Edwards-Helaire. Smith-Schuster. Valdes-Scantling. Dorial Green-Beckham and Ricky Seals-Jones must keep showing up to Chiefs practice by mistake.

• Elijah Mitchell getting pounded by the replacement factor. Seems a bit extreme. I might need to check it.

• Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis don’t really care that Josh Allen is their QB.

• DJ Less, amirite?

• Kyle Pitts would probably benefit from attending Tight End College, also known as Kelce University. He'd bunk with Robert Tonyan.

• Alvin Kamara with a brutal 47% started in the London game. Almost as bad of an FGW as Javonte, who had the understandable bad game from injury. Reminds me of the Melvin Gordon fiasco back in 2018. That cost me a championship...indirectly, but it basically did.

• The dFGW adjustment for Allen is much larger than Jackson, showing how much the expectation drops even from Round 2 to Round 4.

• If Cooper Kupp were to win this one with a draft slot of 4th overall, it would be kind of an absurd accomplishment. Best value pick…at the 4th pick? Can you imagine?

• Alvin Kamara now with a number that will be tough to surpass unless he starts banking some good weeks. Although, Jonathan Taylor could pass him if his season continues in this direction.

• Cleating a bit because I’m doing this after Thursday – Jonathan Taylor almost certainly will approach Kamara this week with his replacement factor dropping him a bit more.

The Full List

For all like 6 of you looking for Week 4 recaps on the eve of Week 5, thanks for reading! For those of you that didn't fix your lineups and get Kamara out of there, just remember we're all going down in this ship together. It's been a privilege and an honor.