Alaska State Senate

I'll clarify and say that while a Murkowski loss, to me, remains more likely than a Murkowski win, I'd say Murkowski still has better chances of victory than her opponents, Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Pat Chesbro. To put into probability, I think the odds are Lisa 45%, Tshibaka 40%, and Chesbro 15%.

It's been widely assumed that ranked-choice voting would give Murkowski the votes necessary to survive, because Democrats' second choices would all be her rather than her right-wing challenger. This remains true. Adding up the Chesbro supporters to Lisa's total would give her the victory.

But like I said in my post yesterday, the primary was actually very bad news for Murkowski. Murkowski's coalition is super vulnerable. She won-- and it's impossible for me to stress this enough-- about one fifth of Republicans. As I've covered before, very high thirties and low forties are where Democrats seem to be landing in Alaska these days. Since Chesbro got under seven points, it's safe to say that about a third of the voters in the race were Democrats for Lisa.

Which leaves about 12% of the voters Republicans for Lisa. You put Republicans at about high fifties or so, and that boils down to less than a quarter of all Republicans.

This is why I'd actually say Tshibaka is running the best campaign of any Republican in America right now. That's a pretty fucking impressive feat. "I'm getting rid of this Alaska icon because Trump doesn't like her" isn't a winning message up there, but Tshibaka has fought tooth and nail for every vote and in many cases, won. In a normal primary, Murkowski would have lost by Liz Cheney margins.

So don't be deceived by Murkowski's "win" in this primary, she's extraordinarily vulnerable and has her work cut out for her. She is entirely at the mercy of the state's Democrats. If Democrats rank their ballots Chesbro > Murkowski > Tshibaka or something to that effect, like we'd expect them to on a normal day, then Murkowski will place third and lose. Her votes will then be divvied up among Tshibaka and Chesbro.

Tshibaka has an advantage in that it's very unlikely that there will be mass defections from her camp. However, she's also going to have to work extraordinarily hard to make any gains, and even then probably ceilings at around 40% in first-choice votes.

RCV is not Murkowski's friend right now. She has to get Democrats to break the system and rank her over an actual Democrat. It's a tall order, even for someone like Murkowski.

So, I'd say there are three scenarios for how this race plays out:

SCENARIO 1:

Round 1:

Tshibaka: 40%

Murkowski: 31%

Chesbro: 29%

Chesbro is wiped out in round one, the vast majority of her supporters rank Lisa above Tshibaka, and Murkowski coasts to victory. Murkowski has to keep between half and a third of Democrats' first votes in a ranked-choice election to skimp by. Tall, but not undoable.

Round 2:

Tshibaka: 43%

Murkowski: 57%

SCENARIO 2:

Round 1:

Tshibaka: 40%

Murkowski: 29%

Chesbro: 31%

Ruh-roh Raggy! Murkowski is wiped out. Now, team Murkowski under this scenario is pretty politically diverse. Obviously, there are those 12% of Republicans, still a very good chunk of Democrats, and a whole bunch of independents. So it's anyone's guess exactly how they fall.

Round 2:

Tshibaka: 53%

Chesbro: 47%

Tshibaka wins by getting enough of Murkowski's windfall to pull ahead. Chesbro gains a lot from Lisa Democrats and Alaskans mad that Trump is meddling in their politics, but Tshibaka has a smooth enough image to win over enough Republicans to pull ahead.

Of course... it wouldn't take much for it to go the other way...

SCENARIO 3:

Round one goes the exact same way, with Lisa getting third.

Round 2:

Tshibaka: 47%

Chesbro: 53%

Republicans for Lisa decide to choose a Democrat over a Trump candidate. Tshibaka does badly with independents. There are zero defections among the Alaska native base which is generally blue. Alaska elects a Democrat for Senate and bros start making it tilt blue on their 2024 maps.

TL;DR: Lisa Murkowski's coalition that gave her a plurality win in the primary is mostly Democrats-- if they vote for the Democrat, she's fucked, and it could give us some crazy results, including a Democrat victory or the other Republican winning.