That C&S frequency needs to be at least in the 30s, ideally high 30s/low 40s. Plus going away from having pull up 2s be almost a quarter of your offense. This is the best route to up a guards efficiency.
Going to Rozier now, this applies to him too. He has the same issues with struggling at the rim, low free throw rate, low rim rate & has efficiency issues due to the inefficient shot diet.
The good news about Rozier is that he has shown promise in this area. In 2022, 35.2% of his shots were C&S & had a 58.5% eFG. In 2021, it was 34.1% with 64.0% eFG. He's done it before.
Overall, it's simple for both Rozier & herro. It's them both adapting to off-ball roles. It's dropping the time of possession, time spent dribbling & limiting pull up 2s in favour for C&S.
Jimmy Butler
Before going with the basketball improvements, he simply needs to play better in terms of having more touches, more time with the ball in his hands & higher usage with the starters.
With basketball improvement, both Brady & Alex agreed on him leaning more to the mid-range & increasing his 3pt. I don't like the idea of him going into more of a mid-range diet & that's because he hasn't been much of a mid-range shooter.
Here are his short mid-range(4-14ft) FG%(starting in 2020)
40.9% > 40.2% > 43.4% > 48.7% > 43.9%
Here are his long mid-range(16ft-3pt):
30.5% > 44.2% > 33.6% > 39.2% > 38.0%
In the last 5 years, out of 28 players with at least 7 SMR per 100, he's 25th in %. Out of 101 players with at least 5, he's 62nd. Out of 104 players with 2 LMR, he's 126th - worse than Killian Hayes.
These aren't the shots that need to increase. It definitely needs to improve but that needs to happen before you up the frequency. Even his pull up 2s has been poor(and streaky in the playoffs)
34.4% > 43.3% > 43.3% > 45.1% > 39.2%
Butler simply isn't a good enough mid-range shooter to be taking away efficient shots for this kind of diet, especially when the volume is already up there.
If there is a need to change his shot diet, it's upping his C&S 3s. Here are his frequency since 2014:
Outside of 2014, he's a low 10s guy until Miami. I need that to be towards the high 10s.
My improvement for him would be his passing. These are his passing stats compared to on-ball players:
The skill is there! & he is a willing passer, particularly on drives. Out of 34 players with 12 drives or more, he's 3rd in pass % where he passes out on 49% of the drives. This was also his grades in 2021 where he had his peak season as a passer:
This improvement will make life a lot easier for everyone else
Jaime Jaquez Jr
Jaquez improvement is going to be the main one because of what he already does well & that's rim pressure.
Here are some Heat rim stats:
Butler; 63.8% on 6.8 per 100(35% freq)
Adebayo: 68.0% on 6.4(30%)
Jaquez: 65.3% on 6.0(36%)
His rim pressure is already one of the best, considering how he gets those looks with it being off dribble in isolation, PNR, in the post, and off-ball. That skill alone is one of the best thing a player can have.
So, now to improve it's adding a 3pt shot and being a pull up threat.
The 3pt shooting more important for off-ball responsibilities. A wing in 2024 needs to have a reliable 3pt shot to be effective without the ball. There's no getting around that. This would also help him open up his driving game.
In terms of on-ball, he simply needs to be a threat in the paint on pull ups. He only attempted 0.6. There needs to be a counter to his constant attacks. Related to this, I also want to see him be more in control where he's capable of finding gaps and open spaces around the paint. That should help his creation tremendously!
Bam Adebayo
The most obvious thing for Adebayo is the 3pt shooting. That needs to be a thing in various ways.
It should start with being a 3pt threat on pick and pops. He's already one of the few players to take multiple C&S 2s with 14% of his shots being that & he only makes 41%. There's no reason he shouldn't be popping for 3pt. Even if he shots 33%, the math is still in his favour! This doesn't have to replace all of his shots, but it needs to be a weapon. Teams right now know that it won't be a shot or a thing he looks for.
His off-ball 3pt needs work too & that's more on being intentional + confident. It's breaking the habit of wanting to cut through or stay in the dunker spot. It's wanting to take 3s at a high volume. It's staying in the corner being ready to take it at will. If you gonna be a shooter, you need to see yourself as a shooter, which means no hesitating on it. This will allow the Heat to run 5-out & drastically improve the fit of the team assuming he makes it a reasonable rate on like 4-5 3s.
In terms of his on-ball creation, seeing as he has been tasked with more responsibility. It starts with the handle. He needs to be better at that to beat bigs off dribble consistently & get to the rim. Because right now, he will most likely settle for those middys - he only takes 2.9 unassisted shots at the rim & drives 5 times per 75 possession.
Or if he's looking for more post touches, it's learning more moves. He needs to be more diverse. If EYE, a fan, can pick up on his tendencies at a good rate where I knew what shot & what direction he's going to attack, then every defender knows that. That's why he only shoots 48% on post ups whilst being 3rd in possessions with 4.1 - out of 12 players with 3 post ups, he's 10th in %.
& finally, he needs to still continue to learn when to be aggressive vs when to pass. It made sense early in his career to be more aggressive, but now it needs to brought back. There needs to be better, seamless shift in being a passer or a scorer because right now, it's very binary & that makes each option less effective.
That's all for what each of the main player should improve on or add to their game to help this team! Let me know what you think each player should do! & again if you enjoyed this, be sure to check out the more in-depth article. Appreciate if you reached the end!
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