The House GOP's margin for error is tiny. With McCarthy's departure, it could grow even smaller

Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 11:20 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 11:20

UNITED STATES - DECEMBER: 5 Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., leaves a meeting of the House Republican Conference in the U.S. Capitol on Tuesday, December 5, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images) — Kevin McCarthy

The House GOP's ever-shrinking majority just shrank a little further—and could get smaller still. That means Republicans could soon have even less room to maneuver, with huge battles over spending bills just up ahead.

Rep. Kevin McCarthy's Wednesday announcement that he's quitting the House came as no surprise. While the ex-speaker's eagerness to be humiliated seemed bottomless, his comments over the last few weeks made it evident that even he had a limit.

And when he goes—"at the end of this year," he says—the Republican caucus will find itself with one fewer member. With more resignations and a critical special election in the pipeline, McCarthy's woefully underprepared replacement as speaker, Mike Johnson, might find himself even more hamstrung than his predecessor.

Associated Press

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 8:46 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 08:46

FILE - Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks to reporters hours after he was ousted as Speaker of the House, Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Two months after his historic ouster as House speaker, Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy announced Wednesday that he is resigning from his congressional seat in California.

His announcement capped a stunning end for the one-time deli owner from Bakersfield, who ascended through state and national politics to become second in line to the presidency before a contingent of hard-right conservatives engineered his removal in October.

McCarthy is the only speaker in history to be voted out of the job.

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Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 8:08 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 08:08

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

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Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 8:06 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 08:06

After schlepping to the governor's mansion on Monday night to grovel before Gov. Kathy Hochul in a secret meeting, former Rep. Tom Suozzi is now set to become the Democratic Party's pick for the upcoming special election to replace George Santos, according to a new report by the New York Times' Nicholas Fandos. Shortly after that story ran, Hochul issued a proclamation scheduling the election to fill New York's vacant 3rd Congressional District for Feb. 13.

In that after-hours get-together, Hochul laid out a series of demands to Suozzi, two unnamed sources told Fandos, including that he "agree to run as a full-throated defender of abortion rights" and "would not run ads damaging their party's brand." Suozzi had been hammered for his wobbly stance on abortion by his top Democratic rival, former state Sen. Anna Kaplan, including his past funding for abstinence education programs and his opposition to allowing Medicaid to pay for abortions.

He also earned Hochul's ire last year when he sought to deny her the chance to run for a full term by running a reactionary campaign for the Democratic nomination in which he assailed her for allegedly failing to address crime and fostering a "culture of corruption" in Albany. Suozzi's stillborn insurgency netted him just 13% of the vote in the primary, good enough for a distant third-place finish. But Hochul and her supporters blamed his attacks for giving ammunition to Republican Lee Zeldin, who amplified them in the general election and forced Hochul to sweat out a narrow 53-47 win.

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Daily Kos Staff

Wednesday December 06, 2023 · 5:00 AM PST

2023/12/06 · 05:00

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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● NC-10: One of the most prominent Republicans in the House jolted the political world when he announced his retirement on Tuesday, but there had already been signs that North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry was ready to move on after a long career in Congress that began when he was just 29 years old.

Jeff Singer highlights those tea leaves as he takes stock of McHenry's political life, dating back to his decision to transfer to a new college in a different congressional district where a septuagenarian Republican incumbent was likely to soon call it quits. The bet paid off: McHenry, a self-styled "hellraiser," won the GOP nomination when the seat came open by just 85 votes and never faced a tough election again.

But as the years went by, McHenry softened his old image even as more and more members of the Republican caucus increasingly embraced it for themselves. That transformation brought matters to a head recently when McHenry served as temporary speaker following Kevin McCarthy's ouster—but made it extremely clear that he did not want the post permanently.

Read all about McHenry's career—including the time he cosplayed as Abe Lincoln to protest Bill Clinton—and get the scoop on the race to succeed him in Singer's new rundown.

Jeff Singer for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday December 05, 2023 · 2:34 PM PST

2023/12/05 · 14:34

US Representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC) speaks to members of the media outside the office of US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on October 3, 2023. McCarthy was fighting for his political life ahead of a vote expected Tuesday on whether to remove him as House speaker, forced by far-right critics angered by his work with Democrats. McCarthy sparked fury among the ultra-conservative wing of the party when he passed a bipartisan stopgap funding measure backed by the White House to avert a government shutdown on September 30, 2023. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP) (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) — Retiring GOP Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina

North Carolina Rep. Patrick McHenry startled the political world on Tuesday when he announced that he would not seek reelection, a declaration that came little more than a month after the former speaker pro tempore declared he would indeed run for an 11th term.

McHenry, who served as temporary speaker during the three weeks that elapsed between Kevin McCarthy's ouster and Mike Johnson's installment, said last month that he was "excited" to continue representing the 10th District, a patch of safely red turf in the western Piedmont region.

But there were reasons to be skeptical that he was enthusiastic about remaining in the House after he'd spent most of October making it clear he didn't want to occupy the speaker's chair a moment longer than necessary.

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday December 05, 2023 · 6:00 AM PST

2023/12/05 · 06:00

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Daily Kos Staff

Tuesday December 05, 2023 · 5:00 AM PST

2023/12/05 · 05:00

UNITED STATES - JUNE 6: Rep. Rob Menendez, D-N.J., attends the House Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials hearing titled "Amtrak Operations: Examining the Challenges and Opportunities for Improving Efficiency and Service," in Rayburn Building on Tuesday, June 6, 2023. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images) — New Jersey's 8th Congressional District Rep. Rob Menendez (D), whose father is Sen. Bob Menendez (D).

_{The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.}

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● NJ-08: Will the father take the son down with him? That's the question for Rep. Rob Menendez, whose dad, Sen. Bob Menendez, is headed to trial on federal corruption charges. While the elder Menendez has not announced whether he'll run for another term in Congress, the younger Menendez says he'll seek reelection—and some powerful New Jersey Democrats very much want to see him prevail.

But in order to do so, Rob Menendez may have to publicly turn his back on his father by endorsing the state's first lady, Tammy Murphy, in her bid to succeed the senator. Will Menendez stand by his family? Or will he put his own ambitions first? And even if he does abandon his dad—whose influence is the chief reason Menendez is in the House today—can he actually win again?

Catch up on all the latest twists and turns—including some ugly poll numbers and spicy sniping—in our latest installment on the Menendez family saga.

David Nir for Daily Kos Elections

Daily Kos Staff

Monday December 04, 2023 · 3:38 PM PST

2023/12/04 · 15:38

Democrats in Hudson County, which makes up the bulk of New Jersey's 8th Congressional District, are embracing Rep. Rob Menendez's bid for a second term despite jettisoning his father, Sen. Bob Menendez, after he was indicted on federal corruption charges earlier this year. However, the younger Menendez may have to follow suit in kicking his dad to the curb if he's to keep up his end of the bargain.

On Friday, the Hudson County Democratic Party awarded its coveted "organization line" to Menendez, assuring him of favorable placement on the primary ballot, and a passel of prominent local officials also rallied behind the first-term congressman. The move came despite the fact that Hudson Democrats gave their line to former financier Tammy Murphy's Senate campaign just last month, in effect telling Bob Menendez to get lost—a decision that raised questions as to whether they'd stick with the senator's son.

It appears that they will, but as the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein previously explained, the Hudson Democratic Party expects all of its candidates to endorse one another: a "loyalty test" that "has long been a key requirement" in the county. Rob Menendez, alone among members of New Jersey's House delegation, has stood by his father, but Wildstein now reports that he has "privately committed to endorsing Murphy," according to unnamed sources. He has not yet, however, done so publicly.

Daily Kos Elections for Daily Kos Liveblogs

Daily Kos Staff

Monday December 04, 2023 · 11:32 AM PST

2023/12/04 · 11:32

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.

Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning.

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Associated Press

Monday December 04, 2023 · 11:02 AM PST

2023/12/04 · 11:02

Four Republicans vote for a proposed congressional redistricting plan in a Georgia Senate committee on Monday, Dec. 4, 2023 at the state Capitol in Atlanta. Opponents of the plan argue it illegally breaks up a majority nonwhite district currently represented by Democratic U.S. Rep Lucy McBath. (AP Photo/Jeff Amy)(AP Photo/Jeff Amy) — Four Republicans vote for a proposed congressional redistricting plan in a Georgia Senate committee on Monday, Dec. 4, 2023 at the state Capitol in Atlanta.

A push by Georgia Republicans to maintain their congressional majority is likely to come down to a decades-old legal question that has never been settled by the U.S. Supreme Court — does federal law protect voting districts where a coalition of nonwhite voters hold sway?

The question was a key part of debate Monday as a Senate committee voted 7-4 along party lines to advance the proposed congressional map. It could be debated Tuesday before the full state Senate.

Republicans pushing redistricting plans in Georgia say such districts aren't protected by the federal Voting Rights Act. Thus, they say it's legal for them to target a district now represented by Democratic U.S. Rep Lucy McBath for a drastic transformation, even as they draw a new Black-majority district elsewhere in metro Atlanta. Such a 1-for-1 switch in districts likely to elect a Democrat would mean Republicans are likely to maintain their 9-5 edge in Georgia's congressional delegation. That's despite nearly half of voters casting ballots for Democrats in recent statewide elections.

Associated Press for Daily Kos Elections

Monday December 04, 2023 · 11:02 AM PST

2023/12/04 · 11:02

Democratic Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney announced Monday that he will run for Virginia governor in 2025.

In a campaign video announcement, Stoney said he wants all Virginians to have a fair shot at success.

“That’s why I’m running for governor. For families like mine that just need an opportunity. For kids like me who will thrive in school if they just get the right chance,” he said. “And for parents like my dad who work multiple jobs and still struggle to live a secure, middle-class life.”

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