Ex-Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen: GOP Sen. Jeff Flake certainly had an interesting Monday. Notorious former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who received a pardon days ago from Donald Trump, said he was interested in challenging Flake in the primary. A little while later, JMC Analytics released a poll showing Flake badly losing his primary to ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward, who is the only notable opponent who has entered the race so far, by a 47-21 margin.
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We'll start with Arpaio, who told the Washington Examiner on Monday that "I could run for mayor [of Phoenix], I could run for legislator, I could run for Senate." Flake appears especially vulnerable to a primary challenge from the nativist right, since the more libertarian-minded senator has long been far more supportive of comprehensive immigration reform, angering this state's notoriously anti-immigration GOP base.
At 85 years old, an Arpaio candidacy doesn't seem particularly likely at first glance. Arpaio also has flirted with running for governor five times since 1998 but never gone for it, and this may go the same way. However, Arpaio lost re-election last year 56-44, so he has no other job to fall back on. Arpaio even told the Washington Examiner that "[t]he bottom line is there's no way I'm going to go fishing. I have no hobbies."
During his 24-year long reign of terror as sheriff of Arizona's largest county, Arpaio earned a notorious reputation for mistreating prisoners, including serving them discolored green and blue meat, forcing them to wear pink underwear, and sending them to live in tents, where he's bragged that temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Arpaio was convicted of criminal contempt of court in July for defying a judicial order to stop detaining suspected undocumented immigrants in violation of their civil rights. Of course, these are only pluses in Donald Trump's book, and he pardoned him on Friday. The fact that Arpaio has also wasted taxpayer money on his quest to "investigate" Barack Obama's birth certificate, and still refused to accept its legitimacy last year, certainly weren't drawbacks with Trump.
Regardless of what Arpaio does, Flake already faces a challenge from former state Sen. Kelli Ward, and a new JMC Analytics poll finds Ward absolutely demolishing Flake by a 47-21 landslide. This survey follows a recent HighGround poll that also showed Ward trouncing Flake 43-28, which was a closer margin, but still awful for an incumbent who is an otherwise rock-solid conservative aside from on immigration.
Despite her reputation for extremism, engagement with conspiracy theories, and weak fundraising, Ward held longtime Sen. John McCain to just a 51-40 primary victory in 2016. Top Republicans, including Trump himself, have reportedly been eager to search for a stronger challenger to Flake, and ex-state party chair Robert Graham seems like the most likely taker. But if JMC's reading of his favorable rating at 22 percent and unfavorable at 67 percent is accurate, even Ward may be able to dispatch the despised one-term incumbent. Trump may even ultimately overlook Ward's flaws due to his hatred of Flake, since he nearly unwittingly endorsed her earlier this month. If Arpaio also runs, he would likely vacuum up most of Ward's voters, though she could still take enough anti-Flake support to help the senator win a close race.
Flake's struggles play right into Democratic hands, since the party would undoubtedly love to face someone as infamously unhinged as Ward. Even if he somehow wins renomination, Flake could stumble into the general election more badly damaged even beyond the tarnish he's acquired by supporting the unpopular Trumpcare bill. With Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema likely to jump into the Senate race, Flake's toxic image increasingly makes Arizona a top-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats next year.
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