https://www.paypal.me/THORnews Everything is weird. This Hurricane is 6 days out from the East Coast with 2 High pressure systems, 1 Low Pressure system & hybrid storm Jose "Steering" it. So I wouldn't let your guard down if I were you. God bless everyone, T https://www.paypal.me/THORnews @newTHOR on twitter https://www.facebook.com/thornewsgo articles on maria https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/marias-parting-shot-flash-floods-hammer-puerto-rico Maria’s Parting Shot: Flash Floods Hammer Puerto Rico A flash flood emergency was in effect for the entire main island of Puerto Rico at midday Thursday, as rainbands feeding into Hurricane Maria continued to stream north across the U.S. territory. Cat 3 Maria was centered more than 150 miles northwest of Puerto Rico at 11 am EDT. Intense rainbands extending well south of Maria’s center were lashing most of the Dominican Republic and parts of Puerto Rico. Power remains out across Puerto Rico on Thursday, and it may be weeks or months before widespread restoration of the island’s power grid, which was already reeling from Hurricane Irma even before Maria struck. Widespread damage and flooding was also reported in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where a 24-hour curfew is in effect. At least 7 deaths have been confirmed in hard-hit Dominica, a toll expected to rise as rescuers work their way into remote parts of the island. Some 90% of the structures in Dominica are reported to be damaged or destroyed, and there has been massive loss of trees across the once-lush landscape. Two deaths in Guadelope and one death in Puerto Rico are also being attributed to Maria. Forecast for Maria Maria will be traversing very warm ocean waters with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 29 - 29.5°C (84 - 85°F) through Monday. Part of the hurricane’s circulation was over Hispaniola on Thursday, though, which was blocking the inflow of moisture to the storm, and Maria was over waters with lower ocean heat content due to the passage of Hurricane Irma two weeks ago. On Friday, Maria will move off of Irma’s wake, and will have more ocean heat energy to work with; the hurricane will also be farther from interference by Hispaniola. This should allow for some modest intensification, perhaps to a low-end Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds, though our intensity forecast models are predicting only about a 5 – 10 mph increase in intensity. Wind shear will be a moderate 10 – 20 knots for the next five days, which should prevent any rapid intensification. By Monday, Maria’s circulation will pass over the cold wake left by Jose, and wind shear will increase to a moderately high 15 – 20 knots, which should be able to knock Maria down to Category 2 strength. Maria will be steered northwest and eventually north over the next five days, around the edge of a high pressure system situated to its east. By Tuesday, Maria is expected to be a large Category 1 hurricane positioned several hundred miles east of the North Carolina coast, but the Outer Banks of North Carolina are clear of NHC’s 5-day cone of uncertainty. In the subsequent 5- to 7-day forecast range, there is more uncertainty than usual on how close Maria might get to the U.S. East Coast, since the hurricane’s track will depend upon how fast Jose decays, and where Jose moves. As Tropical Storm Jose weakens (see below), there is a slight possibility that the Atlantic ridge could build west and block Maria’s progress, forcing the storm to move to the north-northwest toward the coast between North Carolina and New Jersey. About 10% of the 50 members of the 0Z Thursday European model predicted a landfall in this region. A much more likely possibility is that a trough of low pressure passing to the north of Maria next week, in combination with the remains of Jose, will pull Maria to the east-northeast without the storm making landfall along the mid-Atlantic coast. In this case, though, Maria might still be a threat to the Canadian maritime provinces, and potentially Southeast Massachusetts. Maria would most likely be at tropical storm strength in this scenario, due to the cool waters north of North Carolina. Mercifully, the rest of the Atlantic is quiet, with NHC highlighting just one area with a 10% chance of development in their Five-Day Tropical Weather Outlook—the remains of Tropical Lee. Ex-Lee is in the Central Atlantic, far from any land areas, and is not likely to develop because of high wind shear. The Atlantic has been in a rare stretch of high activity—according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the Atlantic has had at least one active named storm for 28 consecutive days, the longest such period since 1995. We are due for a break, and the last few runs from the GFS model have not been depicting any new Atlantic tropical storms forming through at least October 2. The peak part of hurricane season lasts through mid-October, though. In a typical season, we would expect to see at least two more

• published: 21 Sep 2017
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