Brisbane suburbs such as Windsor, Wilston and Milton will be hotter in 2023 if the city concentrates on an infill development plan, according to new research.
But if sprawl development occurred, inner-city suburbs such as Fortitude Valley could be significantly cooler in 2023, compared to 2004.
The results were detailed in new Queensland University of Technology research, which showed the Brisbane suburbs which would suffer temperature rises or falls.
Doctor Liton Kamruzzaman and PhD researcher Kaveh Deilami, from the Science and Engineering Faculty, have analysed the potential impacts of five alternative neighbourhood development scenarios.
Using remote sensing images of Brisbane from 1991 to 2013, they produced thematic maps to predict the "urban heat island" impact of five urban planning scenarios on Brisbane in 2023.
UHI is a phenomenon when urban areas experience a higher temperature compared to their surrounding areas.
They found infill development, focusing on developing vacant or under-used parcels of land, would be the most effective way to control the UHI effect in Brisbane.
But it would still generate pockets of "extreme" UHI.
On the other hand, sprawl development would generate a moderate UHI effect, dispersed across the city.
Dr Kamruzzaman said the findings, published in the Land Use Policy journal, found the number of suburbs suffering from extreme UHI effect was increasing.
"[It has increased] from 10 per cent in 1991 to 20 per cent in 2013, and this trend will continue if effective planning policies are not introduced," he said.
On average, Dr Kamruzzaman said urban areas in Brisbane would experience 2.44 to 2.54 degree higher temperatures compared to rural areas in 2023.
Dr Kamruzzaman said compact developments had many benefits, such as increasing the rates of people walking versus using cars, which in turn would reduce pollution.
But he said it was important to consider UHI and temperature increases in planning to reduce energy demand and heat-related illness, respiratory problems and death.
"It's not just making compact development, but also making those cities more comfortable," he said.
Dr Kamruzzaman said aspects such as parks, tree canopies and rooftop gardens could help reduce the impacts.
"If you have more trees, rooftop gardens, that will reduce the effects," he said.
Brisbane City Planning chairman Julian Simmonds said the City Plan had a strong emphasis on creating a clean, green and sustainable city, which reduced the impact of the urban heat island effect.
"Council is working towards 40 per cent natural habitat cover for Brisbane through bushland acquisition and street tree planting," Cr Simmonds said.
"Additionally, new developments are required to contribute to urban greenery, through landscaping and tree planting.
"Brisbane is known for its leafy green streets and big backyards. Council's city planning is designed to preserve this character as much as possible by concentrating growth around regional centres and along transport corridors."
A Department of Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning spokesman said the draft South East Queensland Regional Plan recognised the many effects of climate change on urban design, including the urban heat island.
"It identifies the need to conserve and protect significant trees as valuable community assets and utilises extensive native vegetation and large shade trees in public spaces," the spokesman said.
"The plan provides urban recreational areas and small-scale food production by residents, such as rooftop gardens."
The spokesman said a broader design strategy was being led by the Queensland government architect, exploring strategies to help reduce temperatures and urban heat island effects by the "clever use of building layouts and architectural measures".
Under an infill development plan, these suburbs would be warmer in 2023, compared to 2004:
- Windsor (1.08 degrees warmer)
- Wilston (1.16 degrees warmer)
- Paddington/ Milton (1.58 degrees)
Under a sprawl development plan, these suburbs would be cooler in 2023, compared to 2004:
- Fortitude Valley (-3.08 degrees)
- Spring Hill (-2.27 degrees)
- South Brisbane (-2.23 degrees)
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