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Interest rates not growth will drive sharemarket
It makes sense investors are worried about US interest rates. They tend to lose money when rates go up in the world's largest economy.
Philip Baker writes on markets specialising in bonds, equity markets and currencies. Based in our Sydney newsroom, Phil is a markets columnist.
It makes sense investors are worried about US interest rates. They tend to lose money when rates go up in the world's largest economy.
When the RBA said it was bracing itself for some "slowing in the year-ended growth rate" it's a fair bet they weren't expecting the slow down to be so severe.
Wall Street's love affair with President elect Donald Trump is record breaking but how long will it last if his policies end up causing the next US recession?
The economy may have gone backwards in the September quarter, but we're not on the edge of a recession.
The economy has shed more than 25,000 jobs and is on the cusp of going backwards for just the fourth time since 1991.
Would a lower corporate tax rate in the US really boost economic growth? No, it would not.
For a change the polls got this one right. But the reaction in financial markets was still the same. Sell.
Investors should take a look at other stocks in the market that trade on very high valuation measures.
Next week's Q3 GDP number needs to be as high as 0.9 per cent, but economists aren't so optimistic.
Taking on more debt as interest rates fell has been the major driver of house prices, not negative gearing.
In just three weeks Donald Trump has raised growth and inflation expectations. But it doesn't mean the RBA can't cut the cash rate again.
The sharemarket's love-hate relationship with interest rates will likely be put to the test by US interest rate increases.
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Traders are putting a low probability on a 1994-style sell-off in bonds. But they missed Brexit and Donald Trump's win too.
For years falling bond yields were good news for equity markets but the recent savage selloff means shares will struggle to rise.
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