Why $US2.5 trillion may not drive Wall Street higher

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange have responded positively to the election of Donald Trump.
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange have responded positively to the election of Donald Trump. Richard Drew

Wall Street still likes what it sees. But the love-in between Wall Street and Donald Trump may need a pre-nup agreement in case there's some buyer remorse in the next few weeks.

The blue chip Dow Jones index has closed in positive territory in 10 of the 12 trading sessions since US election day and is also at a record high.

Investors are betting heavily that Trump can get the US economy firing by cutting the corporate tax rate and spending big on infrastructure.

The S&P; 500 is also at a record high.

But if anyone is buying stocks on the back of Trump's other plan to repatriate $US2.5 trillion that is parked offshore by multinationals, then Capital Economics chief economist John Higgins has a message: be careful, it may not help at all.

"While Donald Trump's plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10 per cent could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P; 500," he said.

Although the idea of $US2.5 trillion coming home and being put to work to create jobs or be invested sounds good, in essence most of the money is held by a small number of companies.

Indeed, Microsoft, Apple, Google and a few other tech companies account for more than 20 per cent of the profits US companies are holding overseas.

Higgins points out that already some of these companies have huge reserves of cash on their balance sheets in the US.

If they really want to invest heavily in the US economy they may be doing it right now. But they're not.

Higgins concedes that the 10 per cent tax on all this money parked offshore will generate a handy $US250 billion, which can be used to pay for the well-flagged spending on infrastructure.

And any cut in the corporate tax rate means more money will be reinvested in the future.

However, if any money does make its way back to the US, it will probably be returned to shareholders through more buybacks, rather than be ploughed back into the business.

Some see this as being good for the sharemarket as it increases earnings a share for those companies involved.

Since 2006, the share price of these large tech stocks have been good performers and have helped Wall Street reach its current lofty levels, but Higgins thinks it is wrong to say buybacks have been the major reason.

"Arguably, the causality lies in the opposite direction: the shares of these companies have typically done well because their earnings have grown rapidly, which in turn has led them to generate the surplus cash that has been used to fund the buybacks." he said,

Higgins reckons there's also a few caveats around some of Trump's proposals on corporate tax.

He says if it does prompt the multinationals to pull back from overseas, their profitability will probably suffer since labour costs are generally higher at home than abroad.

"Fiscal stimulus would also boost inflation at this mature stage of the business cycle and stock markets do not tend to fare well when inflation is rising," he said. "Finally, investors may start to worry again soon about the implications for growth of Trump's other proposals, such as trade tariffs."

For all those reasons he hasn't changed his outlook for the S&P; 500 and thinks at best it will just "grind higher" in 2017.

On Wednesday night, the major index closed at 2204 and Higgins tip is it will be 2300 by the end of next year.

The other stumbling block for Wall Street is the US Federal Reserve.

If the latest minutes of the November Federal Open Markets Committee meeting is anything to go by, it looks as though the Fed is on track to raise interest rates in December.

According to the minutes, "while some participants expressed the view that the economy was close to or at full employment, several others judged that appreciable slack could remain in the labor market".

Still, "most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon" while "some participants noted that recent [FOMC] communications were consistent with an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the near term or argued that, to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting".

The reaction of Wall Street to Trump's win and his growth policies just confirms the likelihood of a rate hike next month.

In addition to that move, Capital Economics expects the Fed will increase interest rates another four times next year.

That will take the Fed funds rate to somewhere between 1.50 per cent and 1.75 per cent by end of 2017.