Spain’s general election 20 December, 2015 saw the upstart anti-austerity and left-wing party Podemos break new political ground. It won 69 seats in Congress, more than any other third party in Spain since elections began following the death of the Spanish dictator Franco. While still trailing the two powerhouse political parties of Spain – the conservative People’s Party (PP) and the centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) – Podemos has been hailed by commentators as the party that has brought the end to Spain’s two-party system.

Those supporting political parties of the left have been looking to the recent Spanish elections with much anticipation. 2015 has seen the left-wing party Syriza come to power in Greece and the lefty Member of Parliament Jeremy Corbyn become the leader of the largest opposition party in the UK. Along with Podemos’ unprecedented showing in the Spanish elections, 2015 has brought some hope to the left. But that feeling of hope should not quickly turn to a sense of victory. The failures of Syriza in stopping the tide of austerity being forced upon Greece by the European troika is a reminder of that.

While the relative success of Podemos in the elections is good news, we should not be too quick to call this the end of Spain’s two-party system. I’ll explain why in 3 points. But first, some very brief background information about the history of electoral politics in Spain since the death of Franco just to understand how unprecedented Podemos’ success as a third party has been.

Background​    

The general election saw all 350 seats of the Congress of Deputies up for grabs. Since 1982 either the centre-left PSOE or the conservative PP had either an absolute majority of these seats or near enough to a majority that a few smaller parties would quickly come to the rescue and a government would form.

At no time since the death of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco had a third party won 25 seats or more. At least not until the most recent elections in which Podemos won 69 seats! At the same time another party, Citizens, won 40 seats.

The strong presence of Podemos at the elections meant that no party had an overall majority of seats in Congress. The largest party, the PP, won 123 seats. It’s natural allies don’t bring that total to 176 and PSOE had ruled out a grand coalition early on. No possibilities seemed plausible for PP to form a government. So it is up to PSOE.

If PSOE forms a coalition with Podemos, challenges lie ahead. If new elections are called, Podemos may lose out.

1. Podemos may get caught up in corruption charges

Suppose PSOE, Podemos and Citizens for a coalition. What happens next?

Well, much of Podemos’ success in the political arena grew out of a populist anti-corruption campaign directed at both PSOE and PP. There have been quite a few corruption scandals within both parties that have helped to bring about a climate in which voting for a third party was so desirable.

But now, Podemos would have to work with a party seen to be corrupt. This could lead to multiple challenges for the party. Perhaps most importantly, Podemos would have to actively avoid getting caught up in charges of corruption themselves. As a smaller party in a coalition, they are bound to be caught up in the whirlwind of what other coalition partners are doing, even if they themselves avoid corruption.

If Podemos is convicted of corruption in a court of law or the court of ordinary households, their anti-austerity program may not be enough for voters seeking a new, fresh form of politics and so their vote share may take a plunge in subsequent elections.

2. Podemos takes the hit for coalition failures

Even if a coalition is formed and Podemos avoids corruption scandals they remain in a difficult position because smaller parties like Podemos can often take the biggest hit in popular support when joining coalitions.

Let’s look to the UK as an example. The Liberal Democrats had their greatest political success following the 2010 general election when they formed a coalition with the Conservative Party. In doing so the Liberal Democrats received some important concessions and significant posts within the cabinet. But they also had to compromise with the Conservatives. One important concession was higher education reform. While the Liberal Democrats had stated they would not increase tuition fees for university students, that’s just what ended up happening. And while the Liberal Democrats did win important concessions as to how those fees would be handled, they received the brunt of the criticism on the policy from the electorate. Such issues continued to pile up and supporters began to abandon ship.

What happened? The Liberal Democrats represented an alternative to politics as usual. More honest and open. From a standpoint on the left they were certainly better than the Conservative Party, but the perceived shattering of the hope ignited by the Liberal Democrats led voters to place the bigger blame on them than the Conservatives. So Liberal Democrat voters abandoned the party and they lost nearly 50 seats in the subsequent election, now holding only 8 of 650.

Podemos could have the same fate. Anything bad coming from the coalition could be blamed on Podemos, only because so much hope is riding on them.

3. New elections are highly likely and may hurt Podemos

Perhaps the most likely situation is that no coalition forms. This is because there are differences between PSOE and Citizens on the one hand, and Podemos on the other. During the election campaign Podemos made a push to increase support. One big step was to support a referendum on Catalan independence. Both PSOE and Citizens oppose such moves because they are heavily in favor of a unified Spain.

None of the parties can budge too far away from these positions and remain credible amongst their supporters. Therefore this issue has become a central point of contention in forming a coalition.

It must be said that PSOE has proposed Spain move towards becoming a federal state, giving greater powers to regions. Will this be enough for Catalans to continue to support Podemos in a coalition? It does not seem likely.

If the parties cannot come together to form an agreement, a snap election seems inevitable.

Snap elections are tricky. They can be hard to predict and the political situation in Spain is not typical. However, there does seem to be a trend toward small-c conservative voting amongst electorates. That does not mean they will voters will support centre-right parties, but voters may be hesitant to support smaller parties like Podemos if they feel that it will lead to greater uncertainty. Voters may go with stability over otherwise more desirable alternatives. That means that snap elections could lead to a much smaller number of seats of Podemos.

If snap elections don’t hurt Podemos, but we see similar election results, we’re back at square one. So, there’s a lot more work to be done to ensure Podemos’ place within Spanish politics.