BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate wraps up business for the year (I think) showing the Abbott government in worse shape than ever.
Unless ReachTEL has something up its sleeve in the next few days, this week’s BludgerTrack reading is the last for the year, and it finds no indication that the rapid momentum away from the Coalition is tapering off. Indeed, the current output of the model has the Coalition in a worse position than at the height of the budget backlash, when Labor’s two-party vote peaked at 53.8%. Now it’s at 54.2%, following a 0.3% shift since last week that has also delivered seats in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia on the seat projection. Palmer United is also showing no signs of bottoming out, a remorseless downward trend since the mid-year Senate changeover having sent it from 6.3% to 2.3%.
A new set of leadership ratings from Newspoll this week knocks the froth off a recent improvement for Bill Shorten, and in doing so reverts his trendline to its remarkable picture of stability throughout the year, interrupted only by some particularly strong ratings in the immediate aftermath of the budget. Tony Abbott’s net rating slips slightly further, but this is due to the momentum of the trend rather than the effect of Newspoll, which was no worse for him than last fortnight’s. Newspoll also suggests the surge to Shorten on preferred prime minister is levelling off, albeit that he retains what from Abbott’s perspective is an alarmingly big lead by the normal standards of an Opposition Leader.
On a PV basis, roughly 1/6 voters who supported the LNP in 2013 would now not do so. That is a whole lot of defection. And things could – probably will – get a whole lot worse for the LNP as the economy continues to lose velocity and unemployment increases.
This is a particularly unconvincing piece arguing that Bishop cannot roll Abbott:
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2014/12/17/julie-bishop-pm-heres-thats-unlikely-happen/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/obama-to-announce-u-s-cuba-relations-shift-as-gross-is-released.html
This had to happen eventually…amazing that it’s taken so long.
abcnews24 has just said that the Pakistan Taliban is NOT listed in Australia as a proscribed terrorist organisation.
I am astounded. How can this organisation NOY be a banned terrorist group?
NOY =NOT
William
Bludgertrack peaked in May with 55-45
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/29/bludgertrack-55-0-45-0-to-labor/
So I guess this current result would change if the next poll results show a closer 2PP?
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/roads-rail-and-tricky-number-games-20141215-127yz7.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Jason Wroe looks at the difficulties facing the Monis inquiry.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sydney-siege-why-the-gunman-inquiry-wont-give-us-simple-answers-20141217-129c76.html
Michelle Grattan asks the same questions.
https://theconversation.com/political-leaders-ask-how-gunman-was-on-the-loose-35561
Stephen Koukoulas – “Open for business”? The Australian economy since the election.
http://thekouk.com/blog/open-for-business-the-australian-economy-since-the-election.html#.VJHbziuUeSo
The brutality of the ABC cuts hits home.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abc-journalists-informed-of-potential-redundancies-before-christmas-20141217-1290eg.html
Mark Latham – Martin Place is not the Middle East.
http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/martin_place_is_not_the_middle_east_4BOi84VkWRbl87vGRUNUPP
Peter Wicks with a good examination of the Martin Place siege.
http://wixxyleaks.com/gutless-the-martin-place-siege-and-the-political-fallout-to-come/
Now it’s Woolworths’ time to be scrutinised by the ACCC over the bullying of suppliers.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-accused-of-bullying-suppliers-into-paying-millions-for-cheap-cheap-campaign-20141217-1293tt.html
Freya Newman breaks her silence
https://newmatilda.com/2014/12/15/freya-newman-breaks-silence-thank-supporters
The head of the ATO identified tax abuse by multinationals before Hockey turned away from taking action.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/ato-chief-identified-tax-abuse-by-multinationals-before-joe-hockey-backed-away-from-reform-pledge-20141217-129auf.html
And we think WE have problems with boats!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/record-number-of-asylum-seeker-deaths-at-sea-in-2014-international-organisation-for-migration-20141217-12903h.html
Section 2 . . .
The tricks that are used to avoid FOI.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/watchdog-exposes-tricks-public-servants-use-to-avoid-sharing-information-with-the-public-20141217-1296by.html
How puerile is this??? And the call them “managers”?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/ato-public-servants-enticed-with-scratch-cards-to-show-up-to-work-20141217-1281hg.html
Medibank was chickenfeed when compared to looming state sell-offs.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/17/insurance/medibank-was-chickenfeed-compared-looming-state-sell-offs
John Warhurst – The political year that was 2014.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australian-politics-the-year-that-was-2014-20141217-128511.html
Bob Ellis and the perspective of the Craig Thompson case.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/12/17/the-innocence-of-craig-thomson-74/
Ron Tandberg and tactics for the Victorian upper house.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Pope on the internecine issues in the Taliban.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
David Rowe – The ghosts of budgets past and future.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AUDUSD:CUR
The AUD just dropped USD0.01 in a bare few minutes – USD8235 to 8236 – peculiar
Problem
Itchy scrot.
Cause
Fungal infection
Fix
Canestan cream.
Result
Bliss
0.8136
This man’s itchy scrot is caused by his desire to conceal his weapon.
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-18/australia-a-nation-of-victims-says-pro-gun-senator-leyonhjelm/5974684
The Government seems to want Senator Lambie to vote no on everything. They have raised rents in ADF housing according to 24.
Peter Costello has been speaking how the government is lame duck. He says the Government does not have the political capital to make tax reforms
Bushfire
Might I add causes:
Humidity, tight underwear
Prevention:
Frequent bathing of area in warm water, then barrier cream.
@gabriellechan: Former indie Peter Draper runs in Nsw seat of Tamworth against Nat Mp on #csg #water #electricity http://t.co/Ttf8rujTfI
Today, I would prefer to discuss anything except the siege. Tired of guns and death.
In an unexpected nanosecond of lucidity, Ellis queries whether he was conned:
shellbell
I read that piece quite differently.
Sandy Aloisi make a complete fool of Leyonjhelm on NewsRadio
Morning all. A beautiful set of numbers to finish off the year – thanks William. The sad thing is, as. Stephen Koukoulis clearly shows, Australia’s economic numbers are as bad as Abbott’s and neither he nor Hockey has any idea how to fix them. We have gone from top three in the OECD to midfield and heading down.
How many unemployed will it take to turf a Liberal government? I fear several hundred thousand.
Bill 10
I am familiar with most of the political nicknames but not these? Is “Itchy Scrot” an unpopular PM? Is “fungal infection” Joe Hockey? Who or what policy is “canestan cream”. Or is that a double dissolution? Now theres a phrase you do not here often these days!
Lizzie 6
Thanks. I think the Age is being generous to the Liberals. What it omits is that Sir Ron Eddington subsequently switched to supporting the EW Rail tunnel in preference to the EW road link after more work was done. Sometimes the answer you get depends on the question you are asked. The EW road tunnel only was preferred when a public transport solution was off the table.
It seems that company tax rorts were enabled by Howard (Costello?) but cannot be fixed by Abbott (Hockey).
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/ato-chief-identified-tax-abuse-by-multinationals-before-joe-hockey-backed-away-from-reform-pledge-20141217-129auf.html#ixzz3MBrxa5ln
Socrates @ 22
All this “commercial in confidence” and hiding of figures merely enables a government to be tricky. If it walks like a duck …
Bushfire Bill
For a mo I thought you were talking about the Immigration Minister
This article suggests that if we simply took violence against women seriously Monis would never have been out on bail. (Nor would Bayley have been.). Hard to argue against that.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/dec/17/man-haron-monis-bail-domestic-violence-taken-seriously-terrorism
Technically I do not agree that it is terrorism, but it is a crime to deliberately instill fear, and needs to be treated more seriously than a pub brawl, not less.
Socrates
Siege is the right word. Siege describes an act associated with violence that can go up to a battle in a war zone
Lizzie 23
Yes for the Liberals “cannot” means “I refuse to make my wealthy friends pay tax”.
When you think about it, why do we even consult business as “stakeholders” when planning tax reform? We are just tipping our hand so they can get ready for any change by restructuring before the change takes effect. They are trying to avoid tax FFS. They are never going to say “tax us this way, you will rake in twice as much…”. Do we consult drink drivers when changing road safety laws? (I hope not.)
Socrates
When I was young and the budget lock up was important, business was NEVER consulted before tax changes. It was kept very secret
I am sorry that I missed the Scrot Files, Series 1.
Episode 1
The Itch
Starring Scrotatease
Dtt
Exactly. Same when I worked in government with many land and transport planning decisions. It was a crime to disclose them. As Eddie Obeid proved, you can make a lot of money if you know in advance what government is doing. We should be challenging this sort of maladministration, not congratulating them for being “consultative”. Have a good day all.
shellbell
I appreciated the posts in which you responded to being out and about that place.
It was a more real thing for me than the thousands of MSM hours of professional emoting.
Thanks.
Bill Shorten through In Laws has a family connection to Katrina Dawson
Brandis cites newspaper reports to support one of his convoluted arguments ..then counsels against relying on ..newspaper reports..
The TOR for the enquiry are quintessential rotten apple.
In times of national stress great leaders lead their nations towards inclusiveness as a basis for joint action in a desired direction.
Abbott goes straight to leaners. Evil genius? Or just dopey bastard?
One rotten apple gone. One to go.
Morning all
I managed to hear the last few minutes of Shorten being interviewed with Ulhmann on ABC radio. He was asked about the siege and our intelligience laws etc. i am going to see if the audio is available online
Cuba relations restored presumably gives Florida to the Repugs. But if Jeb runs I suppose it is already a Repug state.
On twitter
BW
Cuba friendly means more Latino votes in Florida for Democrats
g
Florida is choc-a-bloc with cubanos who fled the Fidalistas.
bw
Who support the lifting of the embargo. They know it has not removed Fidel and is brother from power. It only makes it harder for those in Cuba and those trying to leave.
Now there is going to be an emabassy in Cuba they do not have as far to go to seek asylum
Bw
It’ll be a Baseball team recruiting frenzy.
BW
Also Ezra Klein of Washington Post and MSNBC has said its good for Democrats in a tweet earlier this morning
@WhiteHouse: Welcome home, Alan Gross. http://t.co/ZeORP4H0jr #CubaPolicy http://t.co/rOeFEY3GQv
The thing that really stands out for me is there *STILL* has only been fairly muted criticism from the ABC about the ‘No Cuts to the ABC’ broken promise.
Yes, there has been some, but in the past broken promises have been dragged out and out for months even years.
Amazing. Those at the ABC who faithfully and at times breathlessly covered phony tony for over 4 years etc before he got the big job and are now out the street on their arse must be still wondering HTF did that happen.
Easy ABC. Many of you were suckers, some of you even gave abbott an easy ride and never dug too deep when it was clear the nation and the ABC were being taken for a ride, a dangerous destructive ride.
So keep bending over ABC – abbott’s not finished with you yet.
Murdoch wants a lot more yet.
Suckers.
Yeah I’ll just emerge from lurking for a moment to say some of us are trying to eat breakfast and whoa, too much information. And I’m not talking about the TPP.
He has also probably also remembered where he left his smirk!
*laughs*
@TheAusInstitute: Govt plan: Cut #AustralianAid to world’s poorest & let richest companies off from paying tax. #aidcuts #MYEFO http://t.co/8HDfDDB1bx