Estimates of monthly GDP indicate a rebound. So too do forecasts.
GDP Prospects
20 Replies
Guest Contribution: “Forex reserves: why following China won’t work for India”
Today we are fortunate to have a contribution by Joshua Aizenman, Dockson Chair in Economics and International Relations at the University of Southern California. This post was originally published at East Asia Forum.
Continue reading
Peak oil interview
Here’s a link to an interview on peak oil and other topics that I did with RT TV.
Estimated Elevated Mortality Rates Associated with Medicaid Opt-Outs
A number of states have decided to opt out of expanding Medicaid, despite the fact that for the first three years, 100% of the costs of the Medicaid expansion would be covered by the Federal government. This has a number of fiscal, health and mortality implications.
Unemployment dynamics
What accounts for the sharp spike in unemployment during recessions? And why did the unemployment rate recover so slowly after recent recessions? I’ve been looking into these questions with UCSD Ph.D. candidate Hie Joo Ahn, and we’ve just finished a new research paper summarizing some of our findings.
Expansionary Fiscal Policy Is Very Expansionary, during Extreme Recessions
From a paper by Carlos Vegh, (John Hopkins University), Daniel Riera-Crichton (Bates College) and Guillermo Vuletin (Brookings Institution) presented at the USC-JIMF conference “Financial Crisis in the Aftermath of Global Crisis” (described here):
Is the Fed near its target?
The BLS reported on Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate fell all the way to 6.3% in April. That marks significant progress in terms of the bull’s eye of Fed accountability proposed by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans which Econbrowser discussed 2 months ago. The unemployment rate has dropped steadily over the last 4 years with no increase so far in the inflation rate.
Continue reading
Deployment of Forces: Ukraine
From WaPo based on a Royal United Services Institute paper:
Messages from the April Employment and 2014Q1 Advance GDP Release
April nonfarm payroll employment surprises. The most recent trends in the labor market diverge from those of GDP.
U.S. growth stalls
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP only grew at a 0.1% annual rate in the first quarter. Some of the reasons for an economic stall appear to be temporary, but it’s a very disappointing start to the year nonetheless.