Top Ten Reasons the US should Stay out of Iraq and put Conditions on Arms Sales

Posted on 10/31/2013 by Juan Cole

The US invasion and occupation of Iraq 2003-2011 threw that country into civil war and long-term guerrilla insurgency. Once an insurgency begins, it often lasts 15 years, so Iraq may well not settle down for another decade. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki came to Washington yesterday asking for a substantial increase in military aid, including nice big shiny new weapons and trainers. As usual when the increased violence in Iraq comes up, some journalists and politicians hinted around that maybe it was a mistake to withdraw in 2011 or even that maybe the US should go back in.

VOA reports on Maliki’s visit:

So here are the top ten reasons a) the US should stay out of Iraq and b) should put conditions on any arms sales it makes to Nouri al-Maliki:

1. The US caused the civil war and guerrilla war in the first place, and can’t fix it now. If both kinds of war could get started when the country was under US occupation, with as many as 160,000 troops in country, why would things be different? Under US rule, sometimes 3,000 Iraqi civilians were dying a month. why does anyone think a small force of US troops could make a difference at the moment? Moreover, the Iraqi parliament would never agree to any significant number of US troops on Iraqi soil, and nor would it offer them immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts for war crimes. Therefore, Washington is not sending combat troops back in and Iraq would not accept them. Someone to train pilots in flying Black Hawks is a different matter.

2. The insurgency in Iraq is brutal and heart-breaking, but it isn’t unique in the world. Just last year, over 18,000 Mexicans died in their drug war through November 2012! It is estimated that so far in 2013 about 7,000 Iraqis have died in political violence. No one is suggesting that US troops should go into Mexico or that they would be effective if they did. Why this fixation on American intervention in the Middle East? (Mexico also has oil, so that isn’t the difference). Maybe it is just that Mexico is a relatively strong country with the world’s 14th largest gross domestic product and a population of 112 million. In contrast, Iraq is a small country of 32 million with the world’s 46th largest gdp, so maybe hawks in Washington think it can still be pushed around.

3. The US is still militarily occupying Afghanistan, and it had over 8,000 fatalities in 2012! (Iraq’s 2012 total civilian fatalities in political violence were about 4,500). If that is the best Washington can do when they are running the place, how likely is it they can be effective with a small force from the outside?

4. Washington doesn’t want to intervene in Syria, where there were over 41,000 casualties in 2012.

5. The US is de facto allied with the rebels in Syria against the Baath government of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Those rebels are largely Sunni Arabs, and the majority of land not under regime control in northern Syria is now held by radical extremists. These same radical extremist Sunni forces are the ones blowing up Shiites in Iraq. In short, in Iraqi terms the US is part of the problem, not of the solution, and cannot be an honest broker.

6. Part of the reason for the continued Sunni guerrilla war in Iraq is that Sunni Arabs there aren’t informing against the radical extremists in their midst. They aren’t informing because they mostly hate the government of al-Maliki, which they see as Shiite chauvinist and allied to Iran. Al-Maliki has done nothing to change this perception. He charged Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a major Sunni figure with terrorism and forced him into exile.

7. The Republican senators who charge al-Maliki with leading the country to civil war, however, are being dishonest. Most of them led Iraq to civil war in 2006 in the first place, by bad policy-making after the fall of Saddam Hussein involving firing tens of thousands of Sunnis from their jobs and favoring Shiites and Kurds. They were the biggest screw-up in the history of American foreign policy and are not in a position to criticize anyone, including al-Maliki.

8. Journalists keep speculating that Iraq is headed back to civil war. It is not. The Civil War in 2006 was an ethnic cleansing of mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods. That process is over. The neighborhoods have been altered, into being mostly Sunni or mostly Shiite. There is no one local left to fight. There are no Sunni brigades marching conventionally and trying to take territory against the largely Shiite military, which is relatively well-equipped with US weaponry and would easily defeat them. It isn’t a civil war this time but a low-intensity conflict, a guerrilla war, in which the weapon is shadowy bombings and sniping. Only 20% of insurgencies typically are defeated by military action, so the likelihood that the US can do anything about this one is very low.

9. If the US is going to give weapons to al-Maliki, it must put in place conditions and monitoring to ensure that they don’t end up going to al-Maliki’s de facto ally, the Syrian regime. The ability of Washington to undermine its own policies is mind-boggling.

10. Moreover, al-Maliki has to do more to reach out to the civilian Sunni leadership in Mosul and Ramadi and incorporate them as equals into the new Iraqi politics. He hasn’t done that and Iraq won’t settle down until he or his successor act in this way.

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Posted in Iraq, US politics | Leave a Comment

Pakistani family testifies to empty room on Hill about US Drone that killed Granny

Posted on 10/30/2013 by Juan Cole

Congressman Alan Grayson held a hearing on the Hill on Tuesday on civilian deaths in US drone strikes. A Pakistani family, the Ur Rahmans, testified on the death by drone of their grandmother while she was tending her garden. Nine-year-old Nabila Ur Rahman was injured in the strike that killed he grandmother. It was a moving event, with the translator tearing up. But only 4 congressmen showed up. Presumably they were too busy taking food out of the mouths of poor children to bother.

Although the US government maintains that few civilians have been killed in drone strikes in northern Pakistan, the Pakistani government estimates that US drones have killed 400 to 600 civilian non-combatants. Sometimes the CIA has fired two drones one after another in hopes of killing first responders. While some first responders may be militants, not all are, and this tactic is a war crime.

RT reports on the hearing:

In his recent visit to Washington, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif pressed President Obama to end drone strikes on his country, saying that they violate Pakistani sovereignty. Wikileaks showed that one of his predecessors secretly authorized the strikes, but Sharif said his own government does not condone them and is determined to be transparent.

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Posted in Drone, FATA, Pakistan, Pakistan Taliban, US politics | 44 Comments

Elites Stick together against Us: Feinstein Slams NSA Merkel Tap

Posted on 10/29/2013 by Juan Cole

The Snowden revelations that the National Security Agency was scooping up hundreds of millions of American cell phone records that show who they call and where they are was met with a big yawn in official Washington, D.C. If you are a feudal lord, you want to know what the peasants are up to. The revelation of the Tempora program whereby the NSA and its partner, the British GCHQ, attached sniffers to trans-Atlantic fiber optic cables as they came up into the UK and scooped up billions of actual emails and telephone records (not just metadata as lazy journalists keep maintaining), didn’t even produce a yawn. No one in official Washington or in the US press seems even to know about or understand this program.

Then Brazilian President Dilma Roussef was outraged to discover that her personal communications were monitored by the NSA. Moreover, the US was clearly engaged in massive industrial espionage on the Brazilian energy sector. She canceled a state trip to Washington. She denounced the NSA at the United Nations. She threatened to create a Brazilian internet harder for the US to treat as a hacking playground. But President Roussef couldn’t get off page 17 of the newspapers (or of Google News).

But the news that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s personal cell phone was monitored by the NSA has finally made waves in Washington. Senator Dianne Feinstein, who vocally defended mass electronic surveillance of the American public and who wants to introduce legislation regularizing it, professes to find the Merkel tap unseemly. The courtier press in Washington said that she complained about spying on friendly countries. That is not true. She objected to monitoring friendly “presidents and prime ministers.” Unless, that is, there were an emergency of some sort. The US is always ultimately unconstrained. Feinstein’s comportment has raised questions about privilege and corruption.

This reaction shows the class and racial hierarchies that dominate thinking in Washington. It is all right to spy on ordinary American citizens in obvious contravention of the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution. Because there is a Governmental Class that is typically wealthy and which, despite professing to be elected by and to represent the people, actually thinks of itself as lords over the people. Then there are the teeming hordes of the global South, and their leaders with unpronounceable names, who are also fair game.

But the German Chancellor is a European white person, a peer of the politicians in Washington, and it is not gentlemanly or ladylike to spy on their persons. (German industry or ordinary German citizens would be a different matter).

There is something almost medieval about the chivalry of Feinstein’s sentiments. The honor of another Lady or Parfait Knight must be upheld, if they are from another civilized kingdom. But the peasants, and the nobles of the pagans, are unworthy and may be trod underfoot.

Once you understand this class and racial code, American policy toward the Palestinians, whom Washington has repeatedly helped screw over, becomes perfectly understandable. Palestinians are the ultimate global South peasants, rendered stateless by Israeli and American policy (not so important since the standing of states in the global South isn’t much recognized).

But it should be remembered that working and middle class Americans don’t fall much higher in the hierarchy of worthiness than the other peasants. In a feudal system, there are no citizens, and the peasants have no real rights. There are subjects, who may at most be treated graciously by their overlords, but who may also be treated harshly if the Governmental Class is in a bad mood or feels threatened.

The NSA finally went too far. It treated an elite white member of the Governmental Class as a peasant, and for that must be mildly disciplined.

As for the rest of us, the message from Senator Feinstein is to move along, there is nothing to see here; and when so instructed, we are expected to bend over and assume the position. That Bill of Rights business was just a kind of dark joke.

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Posted in Domestic Surveillance, Government surveillance | 48 Comments

Against Demonizing Syria’s Refugees (Seeley)

Posted on 10/29/2013 by Juan Cole

Nicholas Seeley writes in a guest column for Informed Comment

On a sunny fall afternoon, Abdullah joined me for lunch in the sitting room of my apartment in Amman, Jordan, and told me his story. He hails from a small town in southern Syria, a cousin to some of the families I’ve become friends with in Jordan’s Za’atari refugee camp.

Abdullah is used to traveling—he holds a PhD in a scientific field from a university in Asia, and has lived abroad for many years with his wife and his large family. (I’m keeping the details vague for his protection; Abdullah is not his real name.) When he spoke to me, he had been in transit for nearly 10 months. He fled Syria in December 2012, after being arrested and held for four days by Syrian security. After sneaking over the border into Jordan, he and his family were received by the Jordanian military and sent to Za’atari.

They arrived in the middle of a record cold winter. Snow and freezing rain pelted the camp, and tents were flooding almost daily. “The weather was so cold, we were covering ourselves with 10 blankets, and we were not feeling warm,” Abdullah said. Tent fires were common, and he feared for his children. In February, he bought a plane ticket for Egypt, where friends had offered him a place to stay. At that point, he and his family were allowed to leave the camp: a Jordanian police officer escorted them to the airport.

Egypt started out all right, but after the coup that unseated President Mohammad Morsi, the country became notably hostile to Syrians, and Abdullah began to be afraid again. He had stayed with his friends as long as he could, and he needed work. When he found a teaching job at a university in Yemen, he took it, despite the insecure conditions there. Once more, he moved his family. But the job didn’t work out: it was located in an oil boom-town where prices were shockingly high, and the university had misrepresented the cost of living. His salary wasn’t even enough to feed and house his family. After only two weeks, desperate, he spent the last of his savings on one-way tickets back to Jordan. Here, he said, if he cannot find a way to survive, at least he can go back to Syria.

This time he entered legally, so was able to avoid Za’atari. He took up residence in a small town outside Amman, but he is again growing desperate for work—he brought printed copies of his CV to lunch, in the hope I might be able to find him a job. It would be a risk, as he has no permit—he says he knows people who have been sent back to Syria after being caught working.

Abdullah’s story struck me, because it could as easily be a tale of the Great Recession as of a man fleeing a brutal civil war.
Media stories about refugees tend to follow a familiar mold. They begin with image of a family, dust-stained and barefoot, having fled their home “with nothing but the clothes on their back,” and living in terrible conditions of deprivation. Such portrayals are meant to arouse our compassion, which they do by turning people into passive figures, cutout victims with little agency in their own lives. Often, they create the opposite of sympathy. They make refugees seem like strange and exotic creatures, suffering unthinkable problems in a land far away. They allow us to see refugees as “other,” when in fact they are our friends, neighbors and relatives. They are us, if the cards had been stacked a bit differently.

On the opposite side of the coin from this kind of advocacy journalism are stories that paint refugees as dangerous carriers of social unrest. In the media, the Za’atari camp often appears as a kind of apocalyptic, Mad Max wasteland. News agencies have latched on to UN officials’ characterization of the camp’s ad-hoc bosses as “mafia dons,” and some have used it to describe the camp as a depraved criminal underworld. More sensationalist outlets have slavered over rumors of prostitution and child brides, generating stories based mainly on exaggerations and misinterpretations of fact.

These kinds of stories serve another agenda: to demonize refugees in order to justify denying them access to basic human rights. Rumors about criminality among refugees or asylum seekers are often encouraged by groups that feel the new arrivals threaten their status or entitlements. The stories need not even be false to be affected by such forces: every population contains criminals, but the degree and kind of attention we in the media pay to them says more about our preoccupations than about anything else.

The way we talk and think about refugees can have serious implications for how we try to assist them. In Foreign Policy this week, I write about how the international community is trying to adopt new strategies for dealing with large refugee crises. In part, these changes are data-driven, as years of accumulated research show that most refugees remain in exile for extended periods. But aid workers I spoke to also emphasized that major changes in practice came from overcoming their own stereotypes of refugees as passive victims or pushy criminals. New solutions appeared simply from talking to the refugees, and finding out what they really needed and wanted.

“Quite often, we are not looking into the real nature of: ‘who are the refugees,’” says Kilian Kleinschmidt, the manager of the Za’atari camp. “It’s a typical humanitarian mistake. We look for the vulnerable people … but what we are forgetting is that there are a lot of people with initiative, with skills.”
This is why the stories of Abdullah, and people like him, are so important. The average stories, not the extreme ones. If we want to help Syrian refugees, first we have to listen to them.

——
Nicholas Seeley is a freelance reporter in Amman, Jordan, and the author of the Kindle Single “A Syrian Wedding,”
71AyJ3cREOL._SL1500_ which tells the story of a young couple trying to get married in the Za’atari refugee camp. His reporting on refugees in the Middle East has appeared in numerous publications, including The Christian Science Monitor, Foreign Policy and Middle East Report.

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Posted in Human Rights, Syria | 1 Comment

No Woman, No Drive (Saudi Satire Video)

Posted on 10/28/2013 by Juan Cole

Hisham Fageeh’s satirical take on a Bob Marley classic:

and,

ITN reports on this weekend’s protests and interviews Saudi women activists:

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Posted in Saudi Arabia, women | 8 Comments

America’s Secret 4th Branch of Government: The NSA kept even Obama in the Dark

Posted on 10/28/2013 by Juan Cole

The revelation from the Snowden Papers that the National Security Agency had German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s personal cell phone under surveillance has produced a central fallout. Dueling leaks over the international embarrassment have forced the White House to a key admission: President Barack Obama did not know what the NSA was up to.

Ever since the Snowden revelations of the massive, world-girdling extent of NSA electronic surveillance surfaced, I have been wondering two things: Did they tell Obama about it when they took office in 2009? And, do they have something on Obama?

Outgoing NSA head Keith Alexander or his circle leaked to German tabloid Bild am Sonntag that Alexander had told Obama about the tap on Merkel’s personal phone in 2010 and that Obama asked for more information on Merkel at that time.

DeutscheWelle reports:

That leak forced the White House (and the NSA) to deny the allegation and to see Alexander his leak and raise the ante.

The White House then leaked on Sunday that the Snowden revelations provoked a review of NSA programs and procedures, and the fact that the NSA had Merkel’s and 35 other world leaders’ personal phones under surveillance was revealed to the White House. Someone there then ordered this summer that the personal spying on Merkel and “some” other leaders be halted (the halt wasn’t ordered on all 35?).

In attempting to repair Obama’s reputation with his colleagues at the G-20, however, the White House counter-leakers have made an epochal and very serious revelation: The President wasn’t in the know. (Even in the best case scenario that he was told in 2010, he wasn’t in the know for the first 18 months of his presidency!)

Edward Snowden’s critics have alleged that he revealed classified US secrets to the enemies of the US. But it seems increasingly likely that he revealed them to . . . Barack Obama.

If so, imagine how furious Obama is behind the scenes. It is not his style to act out in public. But the sudden announcements of the retirement of NSA chief Keith Alexander (who apparently should be in jail) and of Director of National Intelligence James Clapper (who certainly should be in jail for lying to Congress) likely signal that Obama demanded they leave.

All of these revelations are being treated as bureaucratic infighting by the inside-the-Beltway courtier press.

It doesn’t seem to occur to anyone to ask what the implications are that an occult intelligence bureaucracy funded at $52 billion a year by your and my tax dollars keeps our elected leaders in the dark about its activities.

Among the founding principles of the United States was “no taxation without representation.” But the NSA appears to be a secret kingdom that appropriates our money with no oversight or accountability. We didn’t elect it, and if it doesn’t let our chosen representatives know what it is up to, then it is taxing us without giving us any representation. It is a tyrant. It is an ominous homunculus within the body politic.

Secrecy is anathema to a democratic republic. If we ever had one, it is long gone. The only real question left is what the unelected fourth branch of government, created inadvertently by Harry Truman, is really up to. It is clearly involved in a great deal of industrial espionage, but how are its discoveries transferred to US corporations? Who do the mostly right wing NSA bureaucrats really report to if not to Obama? And, what are they really doing with our cell phone records, which reveal to whom we speak, how often, and where exactly we are? How are these being data-mined and for what purposes?

How much of our society and politics are shaped by selective leaks about individuals gained from this surveillance? Did the 2008 Wall Street Crash occur in part because the Bush administration had removed pro-regulation New York Governor Elliot Spitzer, using information gathered from his bank accounts, cell phone and personal computer? How many Iraq War critics were, like myself, targeted for surveillance? How many seemingly minor scandals that force decision-makers from office are actually a conspiracy of shadowy intelligence operatives? How many of the vocal defenders of the NSA, or of those politicians too timid to demand reform, fear revelation of personal secrets? Do we have a government or a Mafia extortion racket? These questions may seem outlandish, but they are evidence of the corrosive impact of covert government on a Republic. One can never know what politics is legitimate and what is the result of manipulation. NSA denials that they are using this material gathered on US citizens are not very credible given their officials’ repeated lies and also given their hiding of their activities from the President of the United States.

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Posted in Government surveillance | 42 Comments

The World’s Fate hangs on Obama’s Keystone XL Decision (McKibben)

Posted on 10/28/2013 by Juan Cole

The great Bill McKibben writes at Tomdispatch.com:

As the battle over the Keystone XL pipeline has worn on — and it’s now well over two years old — it’s illuminated the Obama presidency like no other issue. It offers the president not just a choice of policies, but a choice of friends, worldviews, styles. It’s become an X-ray for a flagging presidency. The stakes are sky-high, and not just for Obama. I’m writing these words from Pittsburgh, amid 7,000 enthusiastic and committed young people gathering to fight global warming, and my guess is that his choice will do much to determine how they see politics in this country.

Let us stipulate at the start that whether or not to build the pipeline is a decision with profound physical consequences. If he approves its construction, far more of the dirtiest oil on Earth will flow out of the tar sands of Alberta, Canada, and reach the U.S. Gulf Coast. Not just right away or for a brief period, but far into the future, since the Keystone XL guarantees a steady flow of profits to oil barons who have their hearts set on tripling production in the far north.

The history of oil spills and accidents offers a virtual guarantee that some of that oil will surely make its way into the fields and aquifers of the Great Plains as those tar sands flow south.  The greater and more daunting assurance is this, however: everything that reaches the refineries on the Gulf Coast will, sooner or later, spill into the atmosphere in the form of carbon, driving climate change to new heights.

In June, President Obama said that the building of the full pipeline — on which he alone has the ultimate thumbs up or thumbs down — would be approved only if “it doesn’t significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution.”  By that standard, it’s as close to a no-brainer as you can get.

These days, however, as no one will be surprised to hear, brainless things happen in Washington more often than not, and there’s the usual parade of the usual suspects demanding that Keystone get built. In mid-October, a coalition that included Exxon, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and Royal Dutch Shell, not to mention the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and the Business Roundtable, sent Obama a letter demanding that he approve Keystone in order to “maintain investor confidence,” a phrase almost guaranteed to accompany bad ideas. A report last week showed that the Koch brothers stood to earn as much as $100 billion in profits if the pipeline gets built (which would come in handy in helping fund their endless assault on unions, poor people, and democracy).

But don’t think it’s just Republican bigwigs and oil execs rushing to lend the pipeline a hand. Transcanada, the pipeline’s prospective builder, is at work as well, and Obama’s former communications director Anita Dunn is now on the Transcanada dime, producing TV ads in support of the pipeline.  It’s a classic example of the kind of influence peddling that knows no partisan bounds. As the activists at Credo put it: “It’s a betrayal of the commitments that so many of us worked so hard for, and that Dunn herself played a huge role in shaping as top strategist on the 2008 campaign and communications director in the White House.”

Credo’s Elijah Zarlin, who worked with Dunn back in 2008, wrote that attack on her. He was the guy who wrote all those emails that got so many of us coughing up money and volunteering time during Obama’s first run for the presidency, and he perfectly exemplifies those of us on the other side of this divide — the ones who actually believed Dunn in 2008, the ones who thought Obama was going to try to be a different kind of president.

On energy there’s been precious little sign of that.

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Posted in Energy, Environment | 8 Comments

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    Juan Cole

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