Another day, another vote. Let's look back on the day that was:
- Treasury and the Department of Finance released the pre election economic and fiscal outlook;
- it showed the books were pretty much in the same state as they were when Labor released the economic statement last month and the budget in May;
- Labor says the Coalition now has no excuse not to release its policy costings;
- the Coalition disagrees and will not say when that day might come (but it will be before September 7);
- Mr Abbott announced a $100 million mobile phone black spot polic (in a mobile phone black spot which made it hard to get the story out); and
- Mr Abbott described the Liberal candidate for a western Sydney seat as having "sex appeal".
Thanks to everyone who read and contributed to the discussion about the campaign. A large round of applause - as usual - for Alex Ellinghausen and Andrew Meares.
See you in the morning people.
That's it for the leaders' campaigns today.
Mr Abbott and his caravan are headed for the airport at a 5pm flight headed for goodness knows where.
Media travelling with Mr Rudd have also been told that is it for today.
The Coalition's assistant treasury spokesman, Mathias Cormann, says Mr Abbott's remark about candidate Fiona Scott was "clearly a light-hearted comment".
"I'm sure he meant no offence," Senator Cormann told Sky News.
Speaking of Julia Gillard here is an account of her final 24 hours as prime minister written by former Victorian Labor minister Mary Delahunty.
It originally appeared in the Good Weekend magazine but sometimes the links to those pieces are a little hard to find on the Fairfax Media weekend websites.
I can finally put to bed the issue of when MPs who are not standing for re election can be described as "retired" (see 2.01pm and 11.24am posts).
The office of the serjeant-at-arms (the presiding officer for the House of Representatives) has confirmed that "members who are not standing for re election cease to be members at the date of dissolution of the House, ie 5 August".
My, my, my how things have changed.
Imagine if Julia Gillard was still prime minister.
Do you think Labor would have let Mr Abbott off so lightly?
Makes you wonder how genuine all that stuff about gender and misogyny was, doesn't it?
Labor campaign headquarters has issued the following comment in relation to Mr Abbott's "sex appeal" comments (see 3.07pm post).
"Mr Abbott's comments are entirely a matter for Mr Abbott," a campaign spokeperson said.
Breaking news reporter Judith Ireland has filed this story on Mr Abbott's "sex appeal" comment.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott and Liberal candidate Fiona Scott in Penrith, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
The most excellent Andrew Meares has filed this behind the scenes look at what happens before Kevin Rudd makes his speeches.
Waiting for Kevin
Fairfax photographer Andrew Meares has been following the Prime Minister Kevin Rudd on the campaign trail. Here's a look at what happens before the speeches are made.
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In this photo you can see Mr Abbott meeting the Penrith Panthers. On the far left of the shot is Fiona Scott who is the Coalition's candidate for Lindsay (which she is hoping to take from Labor frontbencher David Bradbury).
Lindsay used to be held by Howard government minister Jackie Kelly.
Mr Abbott was asked about the similarities between Ms Scott and Ms Kelly: "They're young, they're feisty. I can probably say have a bit of sex appeal and they're just very, very connected to the local community."
Opposition leader Tony Abbott meets with Penrith Panthers players, in Penrith, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
I do feel sorry for calorie conscious politicians on the campaign trail confronted as they are by all manner of food they would normally never eat.
Poor Mr Abbott partook of not only ice cream but juice last week.
Today it was a sausage. But at least he appears to have gone for an Atkins type variant on the traditional sausage sizzle - sausage only, hold the bread.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott in Penrith, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Mr Abbott is on a western Sydney blitz.
He has just unveiled an Abbott western Sydney campaign bus and spoken in glowing terms of all the Coalition's candidates in the area.
One by one he went through the resumes and achievements of candidates, Jonathan Swan reports, until he got to Jaymes Diaz who Mr Abbott described as "professional from western Sydney".
Mr Diaz, you may remember, attracted a lot of attention last week when he surprised everyone in the Coalition by announcing it had a six point plan to stop boat arrivals but was then unable to say what they were.
Mr Diaz is running in the seat of Greenway which is held by Labor's Michelle Rowland with a wafer thin margin of 0.9 per cent.
Jonathan reports that Mr Diaz avoided further scrutiny by making a quick dash for a car immediately after the event.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott in Penrith, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
In the 12.38pm post I did a fairly ham fisted job of telling you what PEFO means in terms of the numbers of boat arrivals.
Judith Ireland has done a better job so I'll quote her work:
"PEFO revises up the assumed rate of boat arrivals since the May budget. 15,600 people are now expected in 2013/14 - up from the 13,200 forecast contained in the budget."
Judith continues: "Treasury and Finance explain that PEFO retains the assumption that 1,100 people will arrive per month but has updated the figure to account for the impact of arrivals since the budget and revised estimates of the number of people being placed on bridging visas."
"The assumptions for the following three years are also higher."
"Despite Labor's hardline Papua New Guinea plan announced last month, PEFO says that retaining the arrival assumption of 1,100 a month is prudent."
"Mr Bowen backed thedecision not to reduce the boat arrivals forecasts, saying the government did the same with its economic statement released earlier this month."
Is nowhere in Australia free from gusty winds?
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd speaks to troops from the 4th Regiment at Lavarack Barracks in Townsville on Tuesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
Mr Rudd did not take questions from the media while at Lavarack Barracks. It was purely a picture opportunity.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd meets with troops from the 4th Regiment at Lavarack Barracks in Townsville on Tuesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
Small children and soldiers - tick off two photo opportunities for Kevin Rudd today.
Mr Rudd is at the Lavarack barracks in Townsville where he is visiting the 4th Regiment.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd with the 4th Regiment at Lavarack Barracks in Townsville on Tuesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
An update to the 11.24am post in which I set out to discover whether or not it is accurate to refer to outgoing MPs such as Tony Windsor as "retired".
I should have known it would be more complicated that I thought.
The Australian Electoral Commission informs me it is not an issue for them and suggest I go to the Sergeant-at- Arms office (the presiding officer for the House of Representatives).
Which I have done. Naturally an official email was requested. I obliged. I am waiting for a response.
The Age's economics editor, Tim Colebatch, has filed this analysis of the PEFO figures.
Tim writes that the figures are "a slap in the face for the Coalition" because they confirmed that "the numbers the government has published were the numbers prepared by the experts at Treasury and the Department of Finance".
This means, Tim argues, that there is no reason for the Coalition not to release its costings.
Worth keeping in mind as the outgoing independent MP for Lyne, Rob Oakeshott, points out:
Here is the joke of it all - the Parliamentary Budget Office will rely on todays PEFO from Treasury/Finance, even if politicians won't......
— Rob Oakeshott (@RobOakeshott1) August 13, 2013
The blank page being bandied about by Mr Robb is from the Treasury and Department of Finance which will now begin publishing costings of policies by Labor, the Coalition and the Greens.
(I should point out that there are no costings for any party on the site yet. You can monitor the site yourself here.)
The Coalition's money men, Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb, are attempting to turn the "show me the money" call back on Labor.
Finance spokesman Andrew Robb is holding up a blank sheet of paper to make his point.
"Your job is to detail costings and how you fund them and once you've done that you can start lecturing us," Mr Robb says.
Mr Hockey says the Coalition is just trying to keep up with the rules set by Labor.
It wanted us to use the Parliamentary Budget Office but we are waiting for them to get back to us, Mr Hockey says.
"Our costings are based on the best available figures from the Parliamentary Budget Office and a range of other figures," Mr Hockey says.
He promises to go through the figures "carefully, methodically, prudently".
Frances Abbott tiptoes to see her father, Opposition leader Tony Abbott, speak to the media during morning tea at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Awwww - Frances Abbott was so keen to catch a glimpse of her father, Coalition leader Tony Abbott, during his press conference she stood on tippy toes.
Who is the candidate?
Opposition leader Tony Abbott and Frances Abbott depart after morning tea at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Margie and Frances to the rescue.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott with Margie and Frances Abbott at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Opposition leader Tony Abbott meets with Joy Derrig and her 17 month old granddaughter Sophia Derrig during morning tea at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
It's like a car crash in slow motion.
So when I get back to Point Piper I might take the sea kayak out for a paddle.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott and communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull speak to media during morning tea at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Whatever Labor says about the Coalition it cannot say its members do not cast shadows.
Coalition MPs Luke Hartsuyker, Philip Ruddock and Malcolm Turnbull join Opposition leader Tony Abbott on the campaign trail at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Is Coalition communications spokesman, Malcolm Turnbull, wearing (shudder) the type of glasses that tint when one walks into the sunshine?
Opposition leader Tony Abbott and communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Mr Bowen says the PEFO document has not revised the number of people expected to come to Australia by boat and seek asylum because it would not be "wise" to do so.
It's better to leave the forecasts as they are even though the government expects fewer people to arrive as a result of its Papua New Guinea plan, Mr Bowen says, because this makes it easier to keep track of spending.
Not surprisingly Mr Bowen uses the release of the outlook to demand the Coalition release its policy costings.
"From today the alibis end, the excuses end, [there's] nowhere to hide," Mr Bowen says.
"It's time for all parties to comply with the Charter of Budget Honesty as the government has been doing. From this day forward there's no excuses for the Coalition not to release its costings."
Treasurer Chris Bowen and Finance Minister Penny Wong are about to give Labor's response to this morning's PEFO findings.
Today's Fact Checker segment is now available in which which economics correspondent Peter Martin looks at Labor leader Kevin Rudd's claim that the GST could be changed without the states.
Peter's article is available here.
Peter also explains his findings and how he got to them in the below video.
GST - fact or fiction?
Tony Abbott says he won't increase the Goods and Services Tax - but how easy would it be to hike the GST if he changed his mind?
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Get thee behind me Malcolm.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott and communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull speak to the media at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Not again.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott meets with Joy Derrig and her 17 month old granddaughter Sophia Derrig during morning tea at Colo Heights, NSW, on Tuesday. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
Readers will know I am a fan of political debates (although possibly a little less enthusiastic after Sunday night's offering) but not of the argy bargy that surrounds the organisation of them.
But I will put my jaded attitude aside to bring you up to date on where the next possible Kevin-Rudd-Tony-Abbott encounter is up to.
Mr Abbott would like to participate in a community forum with Mr Rudd hosted by Sky News.
"My view is that the journalists had a good go on Sunday," Mr Abbott said earlier today. "Journalists already have their vehicle for asking questions of me and Mr Rudd. It's time for the people to have a go."
However Mr Rudd wants to show up to a Channel 7 arranged affair this Sunday night which would involve copious use of social media.
Mr Rudd maintains a free to air channel is a better host because the numbers of people who have pay tv are relatively low.
In my 10.58am post I described Tony Windsor as now retired.
I notice people are asking if that's actually the case.
FYI - I have asked the Australian Electoral Commission to clarify the situation and will let you know what they say.
Mr Abbott is now being asked about comments made by WA Liberal MP Don Randall in today's West Australian newspaper.
Mr Randall said an incoming Coalition government might be forced to reverse some of its policy promises if the money was no longer there to pay for them.
"Particularly in the first part of their newly elected term, they find the circumstances may have changed or the finances - in the case both state and federal governments - have been eroded given the downturn in the Chinese economy," Mr Randall told the newspaper.
"You can't get away with it unless you communicate with the electorate and just to arrogantly announce things doesn't go down well with the electorate."
Labor has been having fun with these remarks today and is using them to say the Coalition is untrustworthy.
Mr Abbott has described Mr Randall as a one of the Coalition's "colourful characters" who "occasionally says some things that are wrong".
Mr Abbott: "I want to be known as someone who underpromises and overdelivers."
Remember how Mr Rudd wants Mr Abbott to release the Coalition's costings today (see 9.58am)?
Not going to happen (surprise, surprise).
Mr Abbott is back in range and reminding reporters that in 2010 Labor released its costings "at 5pm on the Friday before the election".
"We'll do a lot, lot better than that," Mr Abbott promises.
But not better as in today.
While we're on the topic of independent MPs - Tony Windsor is now the retired MP for New England (the seat is now likely to be won by the National Party's Barnaby Joyce).
But Mr Windsor is back in Canberra today cleaning out his office. Mr Windsor was spotted earlier this morning wearing a cheery red jumper and having a coffee at Aussie's, the Parliament House coffee shop. He will be having a farewell party tonight at a local pub well known for offering patrons the chance to cook their own steaks.
Bye bye Mr Windsor - a politician and a gentleman.
Tasmanian independent MP Andrew Wilkie (remember him?) is getting narky with Labor. They are running mean signs about him in his electorate. Imagine that.
Stick and stones and all that.
But given Mr Wilkie holds the Hobart seat of Denison with slim 1.2 per cent margin he can't afford to lose any votes. He feels signs saying "Vote Wilkie = Get Abbott" are misleading.
There is an extra $34 million in the coffers because the referendum on local government recognition will not proceed.
The document has provided some further insight into how much money the mining tax will raise for the government.
It's $0.7 billion this financial year, $0.8 billion in the 2014/15 financial year, $1.1 billion in 2015/16 and $1.8 billion in 2016/17.
Does it seem like the political pain was worth it?
Crack breaking news reporter Judith Ireland is on the PEFO case and leading our coverage of the numbers here.
So far no big surprises.
Let me provide you with some headline figures out of the PEFO report:
- the economy is expected to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2013/14 and 3 per cent in 2014/15;
- but this might change given the uncertainty surrounding international forecasts;
- there will be a deficit of $30.1 billion in 2013/14 with a return to surplus in 2016/17 of $4.2 billion;
- inflation is expected to ease; and
- unemployment is expected to rise to 6.25 per cent in the June 2014 quarter.
But the Treasury and Department of Finance say it is difficult to be precise because of the uncertainty over China's growth and the declining contribution of resources to the domestic economy.
Wow - talk about timing.
Mr Rudd ended his press conference at pretty much the exact moment the PEFO documents went live on Treasury's website.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visited the Amaroo Early Childhood Centre in Townsville on Tuesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
Mr Rudd has announced another skills package.
Yesterday there was money for manufacturing workers to allow them to move from low-tech to high-tech industries.
Today it's $30 million over two years in training and improving the skills of 5800 extra workers in areas such as early childhood educators, nurses, allied health professionals, disability support carers and case managers.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd at the Amaroo Early Childhood Centre in Townsville on Tuesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
Mr Rudd is doing his pre PEFO press conference at a childcare centre in Townsville.
He is setting today as the deadline for the Coalition to release its election costings.
"It's D day for Mr Abbott when it comes to announcing his own budget bottom line," Mr Rudd says.
"Mr Abbott has been preparing for this election for three years."
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd at the Amaroo Early Childhood Centre in Townsville on Tuesday. Photo: Andrew Meares
Oh the tricksiness of it all. The media travelling with Tony Abbott was told a short time ago they were going somewhere with no mobile reception which cued frantic calls/emails to head offices saying they would not be able to send any stories/photos/news of what was going on until after the fact.
Which raises the questions - what happens if you announce a policy but the media has no way of reporting it?
Just to make it weirder, Mr Abbott's staff have emailed media not travelling with him to say what he is doing.
It's a $100 million policy to address mobile phone black spots.
"You can't function without a phone," is the authorised Abbott quote sent out by his office.
"People must be able to stay in touch."
(Except the media travelling with him for the purpose of reporting on his announcements.)
A bit of numbers related homework.
Economics writer Matt Wade has a look at exactly what this PEFO malarky is all about. Basically, it's the mandatory election campaign budget prepared by the Treasury and the Department of Finance with no interference from the government.
Then treasurer Peter Costello introduced it as part of the Charter of Budget Honesty in 1998 after he found himself with a $10 billion budget black hole upon taking office in 1996.
But will its release force the Coalition to release its policy costings? Not on your nelly. The Coalition will argue it has to digest the figures, analyse them and think about them before it can show you the money.
The Age's economics editor, Tim Colebatch, has had enough. He writes: "Guys, the election is only 25 days away. You kept telling us you would explain how you would pay for it all in good time before the election. Time's up."
I guess it all comes down to what your definition of "in good time" is.
Let's keep the focus fiscal as we head towards 10am.
For the past week or so Labor has been running a scare campaign that a Coalition government would review the GST with a mind to increasing it and/or extending it to food. The Coalition has consistently denied, in the strongest terms, that it has any plan to do so.
(So much for Kevin Rudd's assertion that he wants to see an end to old style negative politics.)
Coalition education spokesman Christopher Pyne went the furthest of anyone in his party last night when he said the Coalition would "never ever" change the GST in "any" period of government.
You can read his comments here.
Do you believe the Coalition? You can have your say in our reader poll here.
The economic papers will be released via the Treasury website at 10am.
Leaders Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott are expected to leave the initial responses to their respective money men - Chris Bowen and Joe Hockey.
Mr Rudd is in Townsville where he is visiting a childcare centre. He is expected to make some comments before the PEFO documents are released.
Mr Abbott has just landed at the Richmond air base outside Sydney. The media pack has been told its going somewhere with no mobile range. Something about the NBN possibly?
Happy PEFO day everyone - that's pre election economic and fiscal outlook.
So much love for numbers. Will the state of the nation's books prompt the Coalition to reveal its policy costings? What will they show about Labor's economic stewardship?
It's a pleasure to have your company as Andrew Meares, Alex Ellinghausen and I take you through the day.
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