Population growth is the change in a population over time, and can be quantified as the change in the number of individuals of any species in a population using "per unit time" for measurement. In biology, the term ''population growth'' is likely to refer to any known organism, but this article deals mostly with the application of the term to human populations in demography.

In demography, ''population growth'' is used informally for the more specific term population growth rate (see below), and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the human population of the world.

Simple models of population growth include the Malthusian Growth Model and the logistic model.

Population growth 1800-2011: from 1 billion to 7 billion estimated in 31.10.2011. During the year 2011 according to estimates:

colspan=4 align="center" style="background-color: #cfb;"	Population<
Year	Billion
align="left">1800	1
	2
align="left"	1960	3
align="left"	1974	4
align="left"	1987	5
align="left"	1999	6
align="left"	2011*	7

135 million people will be born

57 million people will die and

78 million people will increase the world population.

Determinants of population growth[link]

Population growth is determined by four factors, births(B), deaths(D), immigrants(I), and emigrants(E). Using a formula expressed as

∆P≡(B-D)+(I-E)

In other words, the population growth of a period can be calculated in two parts, natural growth of population (B-D) and mechanical growth of population (I-E),in which Mechanical growth of population is mainly affected by social factors, e.g. the advanced economies are growing faster while the backward economies are growing slowly even with negative growth.

Population growth rate[link]

In demographics and ecology, population growth rate (PGR) is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, PGR ordinarily refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula:

:$PGR\; =\; \backslash frac\{\; \backslash ln(P(t\_2))\; -\; \backslash ln(P(t\_1))\}\; \{(t\_2-t\_1)\}$

The most common way to express population growth is as a percentage, not as a rate. The change in population over a unit time period is expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of the time period. That is:

:$\backslash mathrm\{Percentage\backslash \; Growth\}\; =\; \backslash mathrm\{Growth\backslash \; rate\}\; \backslash times\; 100\%.$

For small time periods and growth rates, the added population is the growth rate multiplied by the time period.

A positive growth ratio (or rate) indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth ratio indicates the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of people at the two times -- net difference between births, deaths a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times. Equivalently, percent death rate = the average number of deaths in a year for every 100 people in the total population.

If the length of the time is taken smaller and smaller, the PGR approaches the logarithmic derivative of the population function P. If the population as a function of time is exponential, say P(''t'') = ''Ce''^''at'', the logarithmic derivative is ''a''. Thus, the PGR approximates the exponent ''a'' for populations with exponential growth.

A related measure is the net reproduction rate. In the absence of migration, a net reproduction rate of more than one indicates that the population of women is increasing, while a net reproduction rate less than one (sub-replacement fertility) indicates that the population of women is decreasing.

Excessive growth and decline[link]

''Main articles: Overpopulation and population decline''

Population exceeding the carrying capacity of an area or environment is called overpopulation. It may be caused by growth in population or by reduction in capacity. Spikes in human population can cause problems such as pollution and traffic congestion, these might be resolved or worsened by technological and economic changes. Conversely, such areas may be considered "underpopulated" if the population is not large enough to maintain an economic system (see population decline). Between these two extremes sits the notion of the optimum population.

Human population growth rate [link]

[[Image:Population growth rate world 2011.svg|thumb|400px|right| Annual population growth rate in percent, as listed in the CIA World Factbook (2011 estimate).]]

Globally, the growth rate of the human population has been declining since peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per annum. In 2009, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%. The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.915%, 0.812%, and 1.092% respectively The last one hundred years have seen a rapid increase in population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution.

The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 88.0 million in 1989, to a low of 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. Since then, annual growth has declined. In 2009, the human population increased by 74.6 million, which is projected to fall steadily to about 41 million per annum in 2050, at which time the population will have increased to about 9.2 billion. Each region of the globe has seen great reductions in growth rate in recent decades, though growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

Some countries experience negative population growth, especially in Eastern Europe mainly due to low fertility rates, high death rates and emigration. In Southern Africa, growth is slowing due to the high number of HIV-related deaths. Some Western Europe countries might also encounter negative population growth. Japan's population began decreasing in 2005.

Growth by country[link]

According to OECD/World Bank population statistics, the world population grew by 27%, or 1.423 billion people, between 1990 and 2008. As persons the increase was among highest in India 290 million and China 192 million. Population growth was among highest in Qatar 174 % and United Arab Emirates 140 %.

!Rank	!Country	!Population (thousands) 2010	!Population (thousands) 1990	!Growth (%)1990-2010
	World	6,895,889	5,306,425	30.0%
1		1,341,335	1,145,195	17.1%
2		1,224,614	873,785	40.2%
3		310,384	253,339	22.5%
4		239,871	184,346	30.1%
5		194,946	149,650	30.3%
6		173,593	111,845	55.3%
7		158,423	97,552	62.4%
8		148,692	105,256	41.3%
9		142,958	148,244	-3.6%
10		126,536	122,251	3.5%

1960s to 2010 table of population growth[link]

colspan="2" align=center style="background-color: #cfb;"	Population growth 1990-2008 (%)<
align=”left”>Africa	55 %
	51 %
align=”left”	Asia	35 %
align=”left”	Latin America	30 %
align=”left”	OECD North America	24 %
align=”left”	OECD Europe	9 %
align=”left”	OECD Pacific	8 %
align=”left”	Former Soviet Union	-1 %
align=”left”	Non-OECD Europe	-11 %

Many of the world's countries, including many in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and South East Asia, have seen a sharp rise in population since the end of the Cold War. The fear is that high population numbers are putting further strain on natural resources, food supplies, fuel supplies, employment, housing, etc.; in some the less fortunate countries. The population of Chad has, for example, ultimately grown from 6,279,921 in 1993 to 10,329,208 in 2009, further straining its resources. Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and the DRC are witnessing a similar growth in population, strained resources and a possible overpopulation problem in the near future.

The situation was most acute in northern, western and central Africa. Refugees from places like the Sudan have helped further strain the resources of neighbouring states like Chad and Egypt. The nation is also host to roughly 255,000 refugees from Sudan’s Darfur region, and about 77,000 refugees from the Central African Republic, whilst approximately 188,000 Chadians have been displaced by their own civil war and famines, have either fled to either the Sudan, the Niger or, more recently, Libya.

N/A* 23,457,000(1967)* 14,355,000(1967)** 3,410,000(1967) 3,546,000(1967) 61,450,000(1967) 4,745,000(1967) 1,050,000(1967) 3,607,000(1967) 343,000(1967) 11,833,126 (1966) 16,353,000(1967) 30,083,419 (1966) 418,000 (1967) 2,500(1967) 8,935,500(1967) 19,191,000(1967) 85,655,000(1967) 45,671,000(1967) 476,727 (1966) 6,050(1966) 1,876,000 (1967) 11,540,764 (1964) 1,965,500(1964) 31,944,000(1967) 10,212,000(1967) 8,226,564(1965) 55,068,000 (1966) 2,884,002(1966) 720,000,000(1967) 98,274,961(1965) 934,176(1965) 511,115,000 (1967)

Example nation !! 1st Population total.!! 2nd Population total.!! 3rd Population total.!!4th Population total.!!5th Population total.!!Life expectancy in years. !!Total population growth from 1st Pop. Total to 5th Pop. Total.
Eritrea*	N/A*	|	3,437,000(1994)	4,298,269 (2002)	5,673,520 (2008)	61 (2008)	2,236,520 (since independence)
Ethiopia*	|	50,974,000(1990)*	54,939,000(1994)	67,673,031(2003)	79,221,000(2008)	55(2008)	55,764,000
Sudan**	|	25,204,000(1990)**	27,361,000 (1994)**	38,114,160 (2003)**	42,272,000(2008)**	50(2008)**	27,917,000
Chad	|	5,679,000(1990)	6,183,000 (1994)	9,253,493(2003)	10,329,208 (2009)	47(2008)	6,919,205
Niger	|	7,732,000(1990)	8,846,000(1994)	10,790,352 (2001)	15,306,252 (2009)	44 (2008)	11,760,252
Nigeria	|	88,500,000(1990)	108,467,000 (1994)	129,934,911 (2002)	158,259,000 (2008)	47(2008)	96,809,000
Mali	|	8,156,000(1990),	10,462,000(1994)	11,340,480(2002)	14,517,176(2010).	50(2008)	9,772,176
Mauritania	|	2,025,000(1990)	2,211,000 (1994)	2,667,859 (2003)	3,291,000 (2009)	54(2008)	2,241,000
Senegal	|	7,327,000(1990)	8,102,000 (1994)	9,967,215(2002)	13,711,597 (2009)	57(2008)	10,104,597
Gambia	|	861,000(1990)	1,081,000 (1994)	1,367,124 (2000)	1,705,000(2008)	55(2008)	1,362,000
Algeria	|	25,012,000 (1990)	27,325,000 (1994)	32,818,500 (2003)	34,895,000(2008)	74 (2008)	23,061,874
The DRC/Zaire	|	35,562,000 (1990)	42,552,000 (1994)	55,225,478 (2003)	70,916,439 (2008)	54(2008)	54,563,439
Egypt	|	53,153,000 (1990)	58,326,000 (1994)	70,712,345 (2003)	79,089,650 (2008)	72 (2008)	49,006,231
Réunion (French colony)	|	N/A(1990)	N/A (1994)	720,934 (2003)	827,000 (2009)	N/A (2008)	409,000
The Falkland Islands (UK Territory)	|	N/A(1990)	N/A(1994)	2,967 (2003)	3,140(2010)		N/A(2008)	640
Chile	|	13,173,000 (1990)	13,994,000(1994)	15,116,435 (2002)	17,224,200 (2011)	77 (2008)	8,288,700
Colombia	|	32,987,000(1990)	34,520,000(1994)	41,088,227 (2002)	45,925,397(2010)	73 (2008)	26,734,397
Brazil	|	150,368,000 (1990)	153,725,000 (1994)	174,468,575 (2000)	190,732,694(2010)	72(2008)	105,077,694
Mexico	|	86,154,000(1990)	93,008,000(1994)	103,400,165 (2000)	112,322,757(2010)	76(2008)	66,651,757
Fiji	|	765,000(1990)	771,000 (1994)	844,330 (2001)	849,000 (2010)	70 (2008)	372,273
Nauru	|	10,000(1990)	N/A (1994)	12,329 (2002)	9,322 (2011)	N/A (2008)	3,272
Jamaican	|	2,420,000 (1990)	2,429,000 (1994)	2,695,867 (2003)	2,847,232(2010)	74 (2008)	971,232
Australia	|	17,086,000 (1990)	17,843,000 (1994)	19,546,792 (2003)	}} (2010)	82 (2008)	11,066,508
Albania	|	3,250,000 (1990)	3,414,000 (1994)	3,510,484 (2002)	2,986,952 (July 2010 est.) (2010)	78 (2008)	1,021,452
Poland	|	38,180,000 (1990)	38,554,000 (1994)	38,626,349 (2001)	38,192,000(2010)	75 (2008)	6,248,000
Hungary	|	10,553,000 (1990)	10,261,000 (1994)	10,106,017 (2002)	9,979,000(2010)	73 (2008)	-142,000
Bulgaria	|	8,980,000 (1990)	8,443,000 (1994)	7,707,495(2000)	7,351,234 (2011)	73 (2008)	-875,330
UK	|	57,411,000 (1990)	58,091,000 (1994)	58,789,194 (2002)	62,008,048 (2010)	79(2008)	7,020,048
Ireland/Éire	|	3,503,000(1990)	3,571,000 (1994)	3,840,838 (2000)	4,470,700 (2010)	78 (2008)	1,586,698
The PRC/China	|	1,139,060,000(1990)	1,208,841,000 (1994)	1,286,975,468 (2004)	1,339,724,852(2010)	73 (2008)	619,724,852
Japan***	|	123,537,000(1990)	124,961,000 (1994)	127,333,002 (2002)	127,420,000 (2010)	82(2008)	28,123,865
Ryukyu Islands (Once occupied by America)***	|	—	—	—	—	—	—
India#	|	843,931,000 (1990)	918,570,000 (1994)	1,028,610,328 (2001)	1,210,193,422(2011)	69 (2008)	699,078,422

;Notes :* Eritrea left Ethiopia in 1991. :** Split in to the nations of Sudan and Southern Sudan during 2011. :*** Merged in 1972. :# Merged in 1975.

Into the future[link]

According to projections, the world population will continue to grow until at least 2050, with the population reaching 9.1 billion in 2050.

See also[link]

Baby boom

Population bottleneck

Population decline

Population pyramid

Carrying capacity

Demographic momentum

Demographic transition

Density dependent inhibition

Exponential growth

Compound annual growth rate

Doubling time

Biological exponential growth

Family planning

Fatal Misconception: The Struggle to Control World Population

Fertility rate

Green Revolution

Natalism and Antinatalism

Optimum Population

Overpopulation

Immigration

Rank mobility index

World population

World population estimates

Logistic function - concept related to logistic model

Ronald Fisher - who referred to the population growth rate as the ''Malthusian Parameter''

List of countries by fertility rate

List of countries by population growth rate

References[link]

External links[link]

2008 Essays on Population Growth Blue Planet United — Population Press

World population growth and trends 1950-2050 US Census

UN University annual "State of the Future" report, including updates on Millennium Project goals including balancing global population growth & resources

BBC News - Birth rate 'harms poverty goals' - 08/12/06

Trend of growth rate with total global population

Visual representation of global population and other statistics

Tsirel, S. V. 2004. On the Possible Reasons for the Hyperexponential Growth of the Earth Population. ''Mathematical Modeling of Social and Economic Dynamics'' / Ed. by M. G. Dmitriev and A. P. Petrov, pp. 367–9. Moscow: Russian State Social University, 2004.

Category:Population ecology Category:Demography Category:Ecological metrics Category:Environmental issues with population

ar:نمو سكاني bg:Естествен прираст ca:Creixement de la població cs:Přirozený přírůstek de:Bevölkerungsentwicklung es:Crecimiento poblacional fa:رشد جمعیت fr:Accroissement démographique hr:Prirast stanovništva id:Pertumbuhan penduduk he:ריבוי טבעי mg:Fiitatry ny isam-ponina ms:Pertumbuhan penduduk nl:Bevolkingsgroei no:Befolkningsvekst km:ការកើនឡើងនៃចំនួនប្រជាជននៅលើពិភពលោក pl:Przyrost naturalny pt:Crescimento populacional stq:Befoulkengsäntwikkelenge simple:Population growth sr:Природни прираштај sh:Prirodni priraštaj fi:Väestönkasvu sv:Befolkningstillväxt uk:Природний приріст vi:Tăng dân số zh:人口自然增长率

name	Hans Rosling
birth date	July 27, 1948
death date
workplaces	Karolinska Institute
alma mater	Uppsala University, St. John's Medical College
known for	Gapminder Foundation and Trendalyzer
signature
spouse	}}

Hans Rosling (born 27 July 1948 in Uppsala, Sweden) is a Swedish medical doctor, academic, statistician and public speaker. He is Professor of International Health at Karolinska Institute and co-founder and chairman of the Gapminder Foundation, which developed the Trendalyzer software system.

Study and career[link]

From 1967 to 1974 Rosling studied statistics and medicine at Uppsala University, and in 1972 he studied public health at St. John's Medical College, Bangalore. He became a licenced physician in 1976 and from 1979 to 1981 he served as District Medical Officer in Nacala in northern Mozambique.

On 21 August 1981, Rosling discovered an outbreak of konzo, a paralytic disease, and the investigations that followed earned him a Ph.D. degree at Uppsala University in 1986. He spent two decades studying outbreaks of this disease in remote rural areas across Africa and supervised more than ten Ph.D. students. Outbreaks occur among hunger-stricken rural populations in Africa where a diet dominated by insufficiently processed cassava results in simultaneous malnutrition and high dietary cyanide intake.

Rosling's research has also focused on other links between economic development, agriculture, poverty and health in Africa, Asia and Latin America. He has been health adviser to WHO, UNICEF and several aid agencies. In 1993 he was one of the initiators of Médecins Sans Frontières in Sweden. At Karolinska Institutet he was head of the Division of International Health (IHCAR) from 2001 to 2007. As chairman of Karolinska International Research and Training Committee (1998–2004) he started health research collaborations with universities in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. He started new courses on Global Health and co-authored a textbook on Global Health that promotes a fact-based world view.

Rosling presented the television documentary ''The Joy of Stats'', which was broadcast in the United Kingdom by BBC Four in December 2010.

Gapminder [link]

Rosling co-founded the Gapminder Foundation together with his son Ola Rosling and daughter-in-law Anna Rosling Rönnlund. Gapminder developed the Trendalyzer software that converts international statistics into moving, interactive graphics. His lectures using Gapminder graphics to visualise world development have won awards. The interactive animations are freely available from the Foundation's website. On 16 March 2007 Google acquired the Trendalyzer software with the intention to scale it up and make it freely available for public statistics. In 2008 Google made available a Motion Chart Google Gadget and in 2009 the Public Data Explorer.

Rosling is also a sword swallower, as demonstrated in the final moments of his second talk at the TED conference. In 2009 he was listed as one of 100 leading global thinkers by Foreign Policy Magazine, and in 2011 as one of 100 most creative people in business by the Fast Company Magazine. In 2011 he was elected member of the Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences.

Awards[link]

2007 – Statistician of the Year Award from the Swedish Association for Statistics

2007 – Jubilee Prize from the Swedish Medical Society

2007 – Knowledge Prize from the National Encyclopaedia of Sweden

2008 – Speaker of the Year from the Swedish Event Academy

2008 – The Big Debate Award from Dagens Medicine

2009 – Georg and Greta Borgstrom Award from the Swedish Royal Academy of Agriculture and Forestry

2010 – Illis Quorum, Highest Award conferred by the Government of Sweden

2010 – The Grand Prize from the Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden

2010 – Gold Medal from Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences

2010 – World Technology Award in Design together with Ola Rosling & Anna Rosling Rönnlund

2010 – The Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement (US)

2011 - Grierson 2011 Award for the Best British Science Documentary, presenter in "The Joy of Stats"

2012 - Time 100 most influential people list

Selected publications [link]

References [link]

External links [link]

Hans Rosling shows the best stats you've ever seen at the 2006 TED Conference in Monterey, CA highlighting novel ways of presenting global statistics.

Hans Rosling's new insights on poverty, from TED2007, featuring a surprise ending. (video)

Video of Hans Rosling speech at the OECD World Forum in Istanbul

Hans Rosling's blog

Ola Rosling giving a Gapminder presentation at Google (video)

Motion Chart Google Gadget

Hans Rosling: Global health expert; data visionary profile on TED.com

Category:1948 births Category:People from Uppsala Category:Karolinska Institutet faculty Category:Swedish bloggers Category:Public health education Category:Living people Category:Sword swallowers

ar:هانس روسلينج de:Hans Rosling es:Hans Rosling fr:Hans Rosling he:האנס רוסלינג nl:Hans Rosling ja:ハンス・ロスリング no:Hans Rosling pl:Hans Rosling sv:Hans Rosling zh:汉斯·罗斯林

school tradition	Classical economics
color	green
name	Thomas Robert Malthus
birth date	February 14, 1766
birth place	Surrey, England
death date	December 29, 1834
death place	Bath, England
alma mater	Jesus College, Cambridge
field	Demography, macroeconomics
influences	David Ricardo, Jean Charles Léonard de Sismondi
opposed	William Godwin, Marquis de Condorcet, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, David Ricardo
influenced	Charles Darwin, Francis Place, Garrett Hardin, John Maynard Keynes, Pierre François Verhulst, Alfred Russel Wallace, Karl Marx, Mao Zedong
contributions	Malthusian growth model }}

The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus FRS (13 or 14 February 1766 – 23 or 29 December 1834) was an English scholar, influential in political economy and demography. Malthus popularized the economic theory of rent.

Malthus has become widely known for his theories about population and its increase or decrease in response to various factors. The six editions of his ''An Essay on the Principle of Population'', published from 1798 to 1826, observed that sooner or later population gets checked by famine and disease. He wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-century Europe that saw society as improving and in principle as perfectable. William Godwin and the Marquis de Condorcet, for example, believed in the possibility of almost limitless improvement of society. In a more complex way so did Jean-Jacques Rousseau, whose notions centered on the goodness of man and the liberty of citizens bound only by the social contract—a form of popular sovereignty.

Malthus thought that the dangers of population growth would preclude endless progress towards a utopian society: "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man". As an Anglican clergyman, Malthus saw this situation as divinely imposed to teach virtuous behaviour. Believing that one could not change human nature, Malthus wrote:

Malthus placed the longer-term stability of the economy above short-term expediency. He criticised the Poor Laws, and (alone among important contemporary economists) supported the Corn Laws, which introduced a system of taxes on British imports of wheat. He thought these measures would encourage domestic production, and so promote long-term benefits.

Malthus became hugely influential, and controversial, in economic, political, social and scientific thought. Many of those whom subsequent centuries term evolutionary biologists read him, notably Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace, for each of whom Malthusianism became an intellectual stepping-stone to the idea of natural selection. Malthus remains a writer of great significance and controversy.

Early life and education[link]

The sixth of seven children of Daniel and Henrietta Malthus, Thomas Robert Malthus grew up in ''The Rookery'', a country house near Westcott in Surrey. Petersen describes Daniel Malthus as "a gentleman of good family and independent means... [and] a friend of David Hume and Jean-Jacques Rousseau". The young Malthus received his education at home in Bramcote, Nottinghamshire, and then at the Dissenting Warrington Academy. He entered Jesus College, Cambridge in 1784. There he took prizes in English declamation, Latin and Greek, and graduated with honours, Ninth Wrangler in mathematics. He took the MA degree in 1791, and was elected a Fellow of Jesus College, Cambridge two years later. In 1797, he took orders and in 1798 became an Anglican country curate at Okewood near Albury in Surrey.

His portrait, and descriptions by contemporaries, present him as tall and good-looking, but with a cleft lip and palate. The cleft palate affected his speech: such birth defects had occurred before amongst his relatives. Malthus apparently refused to have his portrait painted until 1833 because of embarrassment over the cleft lip.

Personal life[link]

Malthus married his cousin Harriet on 12 April 1804 and had three children: Henry, Emily and Lucy. In 1805 he became Professor of History and Political Economy at the East India Company College (now known as Haileybury) in Hertfordshire. His students affectionately referred to him as "Pop" or "Population" Malthus. In 1818 Malthus became a Fellow of the Royal Society.

Malthus's tomb is in Bath Abbey.

''An Essay on the Principle of Population''[link]

Between 1798 and 1826 Malthus published six editions of his famous treatise, ''An Essay on the Principle of Population'', updating each edition to incorporate new material, to address criticism, and to convey changes in his own perspectives on the subject. He wrote the original text in reaction to the optimism of his father and his father's associates (notably Rousseau) regarding the future improvement of society. Malthus also constructed his case as a specific response to writings of William Godwin (1756–1836) and of the Marquis de Condorcet (1743–1794).

Malthus regarded ideals of future improvement in the lot of humanity with skepticism, considering that throughout history a segment of every human population seemed relegated to poverty. He explained this phenomenon by arguing that population growth generally expanded in times and in regions of plenty until the size of the population relative to the primary resources caused distress:

Malthus also saw that societies through history had experienced at one time or another epidemics, famines, or wars: events that masked the fundamental problem of populations overstretching their resource limitations:

Proposed solutions[link]

Malthus argued that two types of checks hold population within resource limits: ''positive'' checks, which raise the death rate; and ''preventive'' ones, which lower the birth rate. The positive checks include hunger, disease and war; the preventive checks, abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy. Regarding possibilities for freeing man from these limits, Malthus argued against a variety of imaginable solutions. For example, he satirically criticized the notion that agricultural improvements could expand without limit:

He also commented on the notion that Francis Galton later called eugenics:

In the second and subsequent editions Malthus put more emphasis on ''moral restraint''. By that he meant the postponement of marriage until people could support a family, coupled with strict celibacy (sexual abstinence) until that time. "He went so far as to claim that moral restraint on a wide scale was the best means—indeed, the only means—of easing the poverty of the lower classes." This plan appeared consistent with virtue, economic gain and social improvement.

This train of thought counterpoints Malthus' stand on public assistance to the poor. He proposed the gradual abolition of poor laws by gradually reducing the number of persons qualifying for relief. Relief in dire distress would come from private charity. He reasoned that poor relief acted against the longer-term interests of the poor by raising the price of commodities and undermining the independence and resilience of the peasant. In other words, the poor laws tended to "create the poor which they maintain."

It offended Malthus that critics claimed he lacked a caring attitude toward the situation of the poor. In the 1798 edition his concern for the poor shows in passages such as the following:

In an addition to the 1817 edition he wrote:

Some, such as William Farr and Karl Marx, argued that Malthus did not fully recognize the human capacity to increase food supply. On this subject, however, Malthus had written: "The main peculiarity which distinguishes man from other animals, in the means of his support, is the power which he possesses of very greatly increasing these means."

On religion[link]

As a believer and a clergyman, Malthus addressed the question of how an omnipotent and caring God could permit suffering. In the First Edition of his Essay (1798) Malthus reasoned that the constant threat of poverty and starvation served to teach the virtues of hard work and virtuous behaviour. "Had population and food increased in the same ratio, it is probable that man might never have emerged from the savage state," he wrote, adding further, "Evil exists in the world not to create despair, but activity."

Nevertheless, although the threat of poverty could be understood to be a prod to motivate human industry, it was not God's will that man should suffer. Malthus wrote that mankind itself was solely to blame for human suffering:

Demographics, wages, and inflation[link]

Malthus wrote of the relationship between population, real wages, and inflation. When the population of laborers grows faster than the production of food, then real wages fall, because the growing population causes the cost of living (i.e., the cost of food) to go up. Difficulties of raising a family eventually reduce the rate of population growth, until the falling population again leads to higher real wages:

"A circumstance which has, perhaps, more than any other, contributed to conceal this oscillation from common view, is the difference between the nominal and real price of labour. It very rarely happens that the nominal price of labour universally falls; but we well know that it frequently remains the same, while the nominal price of provisions has been gradually rising. This, indeed, will generally be the case, if the increase of manufactures and commerce be sufficient to employ the new labourers that are thrown into the market, and to prevent the increased supply from lowering the money-price.10 But an increased number of labourers receiving the same money-wages will necessarily, by their competition, increase the money-price of corn. This is, in fact, a real fall in the price of labour; and, during this period, the condition of the lower classes of the community must be gradually growing worse. But the farmers and capitalists are growing rich from the real cheapness of labour. Their increasing capitals enable them to employ a greater number of men; and, as the population had probably suffered some check from the greater difficulty of supporting a family, the demand for labour, after a certain period, would be great in proportion to the supply, and its price would of course rise, if left to find its natural level; and thus the wages of labour, and consequently the condition of the lower classes of society, might have progressive and retrograde movements, though the price of labour might never nominally fall.

In later editions of his essay, Malthus clarified his view that if society relied on human misery to limit population growth, then sources of misery (e.g., hunger, disease, and war, termed by Malthus "positive checks on population") would inevitably afflict society, as would volatile economic cycles. On the other hand, "preventive checks" to population that limited birthrates, such as later marriages, could ensure a higher standard of living for all, while also increasing economic stability.

Editions and versions[link]

1798: ''An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the future improvement of society with remarks on the speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and other writers.''. Anonymously published.

1803: Second and much enlarged edition: ''An essay on the Principle of Population; or, a view of its past and present effects on human happiness; with an enquiry into our prospects respecting the future removal or mitigation of the evils which it occasions''. Authorship acknowledged.

1806, 1807, 1817 and 1826: editions 3–6, with relatively minor changes from the second edition.

1823: Malthus contributed the article on ''Population'' to the supplement of the Encyclopædia Britannica.

1830: Malthus had a long extract from the 1823 article reprinted as ''A summary view of the Principle of Population''.

Other works[link]

1800: ''The present high price of provisions''[link]

In this work, his first published pamphlet, Malthus argues against the notion prevailing in his locale that the greed of intermediaries caused the high price of provisions. Instead, Malthus says that the high price stems from the Poor Laws which "increase the parish allowances in proportion to the price of corn". Thus, given a limited supply, the Poor Laws force up the price of daily necessities. Then he concludes by saying that in time of scarcity such Poor Laws, by raising the price of corn more evenly, produce a beneficial effect.

1814: ''Observations on the effects of the Corn Laws''[link]

Although government in Britain had regulated the prices of corn (grain in general, e.g., wheat) since the 17th century, the Corn Laws originated in 1815. At the end of the Napoleonic Wars that year, Parliament passed legislation banning the importation of foreign corn into Britain until domestic corn cost 80 shillings per quarter. The high price caused the cost of food to increase and so caused great distress among the working classes in the towns. This led to serious rioting in London and to the "Peterloo Massacre" (1819) in Manchester.

In this pamphlet, printed during the parliamentary discussion, Malthus tentatively supported the free-traders. He argued that given the increasing expense of raising British corn, advantages accrued from supplementing it from cheaper foreign sources. This view he changed the following year.

1815: ''The Nature of Rent''[link]

''Rent'' constitutes a major concept in economics. David Ricardo, Malthus' contemporary and friendly rival, defined a theory of rent in his ''Principles of Political Economy'' (1817). Ricardo regarded rent as value in excess of real production—something caused by incident of ownership rather than by fundamental economic value imparted by free and equal trade. For Ricardo, rent represented a kind of negative money that landlords could pull out of the production of the land by measure of land's scarcity.

Contrary to this concept of rent, Malthus states that rent cannot exist except in the case of surplus. Also he says that rent, once accumulated, becomes subsequently a source of capital re-investment, causing positive effects through the growth and accumulation of productive wealth. He proposes rent to be a kind of surplus.

1815: ''The policy of restricting the importation of Grain ''[link]

Malthus emerged as the only economist of note to support customs duty on imported grain.

He had changed his mind from the previous year, siding now with the protectionists. Foreign laws, he noted, often prohibit or raise taxes on the export of corn in lean times, which meant that the British food supply could become captive to foreign politics. By encouraging domestic production, Malthus argued, the Corn Laws would guarantee British self-sufficiency in food.

1820: ''Principles of political economy''[link]

1836: Second edition, posthumously published.

Malthus intended this work to rival Ricardo's ''Principles'' (1817). It, and his 1827 ''Definitions in political economy'' (below), defend Sismondi's views on general glut as against Say's Law. Say's Law states, "there can be no general glut". A general glut falls under the general category of what one might term Malthus's "Surplus Theory", as opposed to his "main", and earlier, body of work, which presents a "Scarcity Theory".

1823: ''The Measure of Value, stated and illustrated''[link]

1827: ''Definitions in political economy ''[link]

:"The question of a glut is exclusively whether it may be general, as well as particular, and not whether it may be permanent as well as temporary...[The] tendency, in the natural course of things, to cure a glut or scarcity, is no more a proof that such evils have never existed, than the tendency of the healing processes of nature to cure some disorders without assistance from man, is a proof that such disorders never existed."

Other publications[link]

1807. ''A letter to Samuel Whitbread, Esq. M.P. on his proposed Bill for the Amendment of the Poor Laws''. Johnson and Hatchard, London.

1808. Spence on Commerce. ''Edinburgh Review'' 11, January, 429-448.

1808. Newneham and others on the state of Ireland. ''Edinburgh Review'' 12, July, 336-355.

1809. Newneham on the state of Ireland, ''Edinburgh Review'' 14 April, 151-170.

1811. Depreciation of paper currency. ''Edinburgh Review'' 17, February, 340-372.

1812. Pamphlets on the bullion question. '' Edinburgh Review'' 18, August, 448-470.

1813. ''A letter to the Rt. Hon. Lord Grenville''. Johnson, London.

1817. ''Statement respecting the East-India College''. Murray, London.

1821. Godwin on Malthus. ''Edinburgh Review'' 35, July, 362-377.

1823. Tooke – On high and low prices. ''Quarterly Review'', 29 (57), April, 214-239.

1824. Political economy. ''Quarterly Review'' 30 (60), January, 297-334.

1829. On the measure of the conditions necessary to the supply of commodities. ''Transactions of the Royal Society of Literature of the United Kingdom''. 1, 171-180. John Murray, London.

1829. On the meaning which is most usually and most correctly attached to the term ''Value of a Commodity''. ''Transactions of the Royal Society of Literature of the United Kingdom''. 2, 74-81. John Murray, \

Surplus theory[link]

Whereas Malthus's main body of work presents a theory of irremediable, if not untreatable, scarcity, three of his other works present a theory of surplus: ''The Nature of Rent,'' ''Principles of political economy,'' and ''Definitions in Political Economy''.

''The Nature of Rent'' proposes rent as a kind of surplus, whereas the previous general definition of rent portrayed it as a societal economic loss caused by personal financial gain derived from land scarcity.

''Principles of Political Economy'' and ''Definitions in Political Economy'' defend the concept of the general glut, a theory that surplus value can present a problem. Rent as surplus, and a glut or surplus of goods as problems differ somewhat or stand in contradistinction to Malthus's earlier scarcity theory of ''The Principle of Population.''

Reactions to his ideas[link]

Malthus became subject to extreme personal criticism. People who knew nothing about his private life criticised him both for having no children and for having too many. In 1819, Shelley, berating Malthus as a priest, called him "a eunuch and a tyrant" (though the Church of England does not require celibacy, and Malthus had married in 1804). Marx repeated the lie, adding that Malthus had taken the vow of celibacy, and called him "superficial", "a professional plagiarist", "the agent of the landed aristocracy", "a paid advocate" and "the principal enemy of the people." In the 20th century an editor of the ''Everyman'' edition of Malthus claimed that Malthus had practised population control by begetting eleven girls. (In fact, Malthus fathered two daughters and one son.) Garrett Hardin provides an overview of these personal insults.

Early responses[link]

William Godwin criticized Malthus's criticisms of his own arguments in his book ''On Population'' (1820).

Other theoretical and political critiques of Malthus and Malthusian thinking emerged soon after the publication of the first ''Essay on Population'', most notably in the work of the reformist industrialist Robert Owen, of the essayist William Hazlitt (1807) and of the economist Nassau William Senior, and moralist William Cobbett. Note also ''True Law of Population'' (1845) by politician Thomas Doubleday, an adherent of Cobbett's views.

John Stuart Mill strongly defended the ideas of Malthus in his 1848 work, ''Principles of Political Economy'' (Book II, Chapters 11-13). Mill considered the criticisms of Malthus made thus far to have been superficial.

The American economist Henry Charles Carey rejected Malthus's argument in his ''magnum opus'' of 1858-59, ''The Principles of Social Science''. Carey maintained that the only situation in which the means of subsistence will determine population growth is one in which a given society is not introducing new technologies or not adopting forward-thinking governmental policy, and that population regulated itself in every well-governed society, but its pressure on subsistence characterized the lower stages of civilization.

Marxist views[link]

Another strand of opposition to Malthus's ideas started in the middle of the 19th century with the writings of Friedrich Engels (''Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy'', 1844) and Karl Marx (''Capital'', 1867). Engels and Marx argued that what Malthus saw as the problem of the pressure of population on the means of production actually represented the pressure of the means of production on population. They thus viewed it in terms of their concept of the reserve army of labour. In other words, the seeming excess of population that Malthus attributed to the seemingly innate disposition of the poor to reproduce beyond their means actually emerged as a product of the very dynamic of capitalist economy.

Engels called Malthus's hypothesis "...the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love thy neighbour and world citizenship." Engels also predicted calling it a "reactionary doctrine" and "an attempt on the part of bourgeois ideologists to exonerate capitalism and to prove the inevitability of privation and misery for the working class under any social system".

Other dissenters[link]

Some 19th-century economists believed that improvements in finance, manufacturing and science rendered some of Malthus's warnings implausible. They had in mind the division and specialization of labour, increased capital investment, and increased productivity of the land due to the introduction of science into agriculture (note the experiments of Justus Liebig and of Sir John Bennet Lawes). Even in the absence of improvement in technology or of increase of capital equipment, an increased supply of labour may have a synergistic effect on productivity that overcomes the law of diminishing returns. As American land-economist Henry George observed with characteristic piquancy in dismissing Malthus: "Both the jayhawk and the man eat chickens; but the more jayhawks, the fewer chickens, while the more men, the more chickens." In the 20th century, those who regarded Malthus as a failed prophet of doom included an editor of ''Nature'', John Maddox.

Economist Julian Lincoln Simon has criticised Malthus's conclusions. He notes that despite the predictions of Malthus and of the Neo-Malthusians, massive geometric population growth in the 20th century did not result in a Malthusian catastrophe. Many factors may have contributed: general improvements in farming methods (industrial agriculture), mechanization of work (tractors), the introduction of high-yield varieties of wheat and other plants (Green Revolution), the use of pesticides to control crop pests. Each played a role. The enviro-sceptic Bjørn Lomborg presents data showing that the environment has actually improved. Calories produced per day per capita globally went up 23% between 1960 and 2000, despite the world population doubling during that period. Anthropologist Eric Ross depicts Malthus's work as a rationalization of the social inequities produced by the Industrial Revolution, anti-immigration movements, the eugenics movement and the various international development movements.

Influence[link]

Early influence[link]

Malthus belonged amongst a group of high-quality intellectuals employed by the British East India Company. They included both James Mill and his son, John Stuart Mill;

According to Malthus's biographer William Peterson, British Prime Minister William Pitt the Younger (in office: 1783–1801 and 1804–1806), upon reading the work of Malthus, withdrew a Bill he had introduced that called for the extension of Poor Relief. Concerns about Malthus's theory helped promote the idea of a national population census in the UK. Government official John Rickman became instrumental in the carrying out of the first modern British census in 1801, under Pitt's administration. In the 1830s Malthus's writings strongly influenced Whig reforms which overturned Tory paternalism and brought in the Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834.

Before Malthus, commentators had regarded high fertility as an economic advantage, because it increased the number of workers available to the economy. Malthus, however, looked at fertility from a new perspective and convinced most economists that even though high fertility might increase the gross output, it tended to reduce output ''per capita''. A number of other notable economists, such as David Ricardo (whom Malthus knew personally) and Alfred Marshall admired Malthus and/or came under his influence. Malthus took pride in the fact that some of the earliest converts to his population theory included Archdeacon William Paley, whose ''Natural Theology'' first appeared in 1802. Ironically, given Malthus's own opposition to contraception, his work exercised a strong influence on Francis Place (1771–1854), whose neo-Malthusian movement became the first to advocate contraception. Place published his ''Illustrations and Proofs of the Principles of Population'' in 1822.

Later influence[link]

At Haileybury, Malthus developed a theory of demand-supply mismatches which he called gluts. Considered ridiculous at the time, his theory foreshadowed later theories about the Great Depression of the 1930s, and the works of economist and Malthus-admirer John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946).

Malthusian ideas continue to have considerable influence. Paul R. Ehrlich has written several books predicting famine as a result of population increase: ''The Population Bomb'' (1968); ''Population, resources, environment: issues in human ecology'' (1970, with Anne Ehrlich); ''The end of affluence'' (1974, with Anne Ehrlich); ''The population explosion'' (1990, with Anne Ehrlich). In the late 1960s Ehrlich predicted that hundreds of millions would die from a coming overpopulation-crisis in the 1970s. Other examples of applied Malthusianism include the 1972 book ''The Limits to Growth'' (published by the Club of Rome) and the Global 2000 report to the then President of the United States of America Jimmy Carter. Science-fiction author Isaac Asimov issued many appeals for population-control reflecting the perspective articulated by people from Robert Malthus through Paul R. Ehrlich.

More , a school of "neo-Malthusian" scholars has begun to link population and economics to a third variable, political change and political violence, and to show how the variables interact. In the early 1980s, James Goldstone linked population variables to the English Revolution of 1640-1660 and David Lempert devised a model of demographics, economics, and political change in the multi-ethnic country of Mauritius. Goldstone has since modeled other revolutions by looking at demographics and economics and Lempert has explained Stalin's purges and the Russian Revolution of 1917 in terms of demographic factors that drive political economy. Ted Robert Gurr has also modeled political violence, such as in the Palestinian territories and in Rwanda/Congo (two of the world's regions of most rapidly growing population) using similar variables in several comparative cases. These approaches suggest that political ideology follows demographic forces.

Malthus, sometimes regarded as the founding father of modern demography, continues to inspire and influence futuristic visions, such as those of K Eric Drexler relating to space advocacy and molecular nanotechnology. As Drexler put it in ''Engines of Creation'' (1986): "In a sense, opening space will burst our limits to growth, since we know of no end to the universe. Nevertheless, Malthus was essentially right."

The Malthusian growth model now bears Malthus's name. The logistic function of Pierre Francois Verhulst (1804–1849) results in the S-curve. Verhulst developed the logistic growth model favored by so many critics of the Malthusian growth model in 1838 only after reading Malthus's essay. Malthus has also inspired retired physics professor, Albert Bartlett, to lecture over 1,500 times on "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy", promoting sustainable living and explaining the mathematics of overpopulation. ''[Malthus] became the best-abused man of the age'' ''There is hardly a cherished ideology, left or right, that is not brought into question by the principle of population.''

Social theory[link]

Despite use of the term "Malthusian catastrophe" by detractors such as economist Julian Simon (1932–1998), Malthus himself did not write that mankind faced an inevitable future catastrophe. Rather, he offered an evolutionary social theory of population dynamics as it had acted steadily throughout all previous history. Eight major points regarding population dynamics appear in the ''1798 Essay'':

# subsistence severely limits population-level # when the means of subsistence increases, population increases # population-pressures stimulate increases in productivity # increases in productivity stimulate further population-growth # because productivity increases cannot maintain the potential rate of population growth, population requires strong checks to keep parity with the carrying-capacity # individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children determine the expansion or contraction of population and production # checks will come into operation as population exceeds subsistence-level # the nature of these checks will have significant effect on the larger sociocultural system—Malthus points specifically to misery, vice, and poverty

Malthusian social theory influenced Herbert Spencer's idea of the survival of the fittest, and the modern ecological-evolutionary social theory of Gerhard Lenski and Marvin Harris. Malthusian ideas have thus contributed to the canon of socioeconomic theory.

The first Director-General of UNESCO, Julian Huxley, wrote of ''The crowded world'' in his ''Evolutionary Humanism'' (1964), calling for a world population policy. Huxley openly criticised communist and Roman Catholic attitudes to birth control, population control and overpopulation.

Biology[link]

Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace each read and acknowledged the role played by Malthus in the development of their own ideas. Darwin referred to Malthus as "that great philosopher", and said: "This is the doctrine of Malthus, applied with manifold force to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, for in this case there can be no artificial increase of food, and no prudential restraint from marriage". Darwin also wrote:

Wallace stated:

Ronald Fisher commented sceptically on Malthusianism as a basis for a theory of natural selection. Fisher did not deny Malthus's basic premises, but emphasised the role of fecundity. John Maynard Smith doubted that famine functioned as the great leveller, as portrayed by Malthus, but he also accepted the basic premises:

References in popular culture[link]

Ebenezer Scrooge from ''A Christmas Carol'' by Charles Dickens, represents the perceived ideas of Malthus, famously illustrated by his explanation as to why he refuses to donate to the poor and destitute: "If they would rather die they had better do it, and decrease the surplus population". In general, Dickens had some Malthusian concerns (evident in ''Hard Times'' and other novels), and he concentrated his attacks on Utilitarianism and many of his proponents, like Smith, and Bentham, whom he thought of them, along with Malthus, as unjust and inhumane people.

In Robert A. Heinlein's novel, ''The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress'', the character Bernardo de la Paz says to Mannie: "This planet isn't crowded; it is just mismanaged ... and the unkindest thing you can do for a hungry man is to give him food. Read Malthus. It is never safe to laugh at Dr. Malthus; he always has the last laugh."

In Aldous Huxley's novel, ''Brave New World'', people generally regard fertility as a nuisance, as ''in vitro'' breeding has enabled the society to maintain its population at precisely the level the controllers want. The women, therefore, carry contraceptives with them at all times in a "Malthusian belt".

''Urinetown'', a musical about a world torn by drought, ends with a shout of "Hail Malthus!" after explaining that all the characters in the show die.

''Green Lantern'' #81, released by DC Comics in December 1970 in the heyday of Paul R. Ehrlich's theories on population explosion, featured a story called "The Population Explosion" that presented the home planet of the mysterious Guardians of the Universe: a world named ''Maltus'' or ''Malthus'' where overpopulation forced many of its inhabitants to flee into outer space.

Bioy Casares's novel ''La invención de Morel'' makes frequent mention of Malthus.

The ideas of Malhus play a key role in the Xbox Live Arcade game ''Hydrophobia'', released in 2011.

Epitaph[link]

The epitaph of Malthus in Bath Abbey reads:

See also[link]

Cornucopianism: a counter-Malthusian school of thought

Food Race, a related idea from Daniel Quinn

''The Limits to Growth'', from the Club of Rome

Hong Liangji, China's "Malthus"

Malthusian trap

Malthusian catastrophe

Malthusian growth model

Malthusian equilibrium

Malthusianism

National Security Study Memorandum 200

Overpopulation

World population

Notes[link]

References[link]

Dupâquier, J. 2001. Malthus, Thomas Robert (1766–1834). ''International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences'', 9151–9156. Abstract.

Hollander, Samuel 1997. ''The Economics of Thomas Robert Malthus''. University of Toronto Press.

Elwell, Frank W. 2001. ''A commentary on Malthus's 1798 Essay on Population as social theory''. Mellon Press.

Evans, L.T. 1998. ''Feeding the ten billion – plants and population growth''. Cambridge University Press. Paperback, 247 pages. Dedicated to Malthus by the author. ISBN 0-521-64685-5.

James, Patricia 1979. ''Population Malthus: his life and times''. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul.

Peterson, William 1999. ''Malthus, founder of modern demography'' 2nd ed. Transaction. ISBN 0-7658-0481-6.

Rohe, John F., ''A Bicentennial Malthusian Essay: conservation, population and the indifference to limits'', Rhodes & Easton, Traverse City, MI. 1997

Further reading[link]

Negative Population Growth organization: a collection of essays for the Malthus Bicentenary

National Academics Forum, Australia: a collection of essays for the Malthus Bicentenary Conference, 1998

''Conceptual origins of Malthus's Essay on Population'', facsimile reprint of 8 Books in 6 volumes, edited by Yoshinobu Nanagita (ISBN 978-4-902454-14-7) www.aplink.co.jp/ep/4-902454-14-9.htm

''The Worldly Philosophers – the lives, times, and ideas of the great economic thinkers''. Robert L. Heilbroner.

Elwell, Frank W. 2001. ''A Commentary on Malthus' 1798 Essay on Population as social theory'' E. Mellen Press, Lewiston, NY. ISBN 0-7734-7669-5.

National Geographic Magazine, June 2009 article, "The Global Food Crisis,"

External links[link]

Librivox Audiobook: ''An Essay on the Principle of Population''

''Theories of Overpopulation'' - refer section entitled ''Criticism of the Malthusian Theory''. Catholic Encyclopedia website

''More Food for More People But Not For All, and Not Forever'' United Nations Population Fund website

The Feast of Malthus by Garrett Hardin in ''The Social Contract'' (1998)

Malthus biography by Nigel Malthus, a direct descendant of Malthus's brother Sydenham Malthus

The International Society of Malthus

Exponentialist website dedicated to Malthus

T. Robert Malthus's Homepage

EconLib-1798: ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,'' 1st edition, 1798. Library of Economics and Liberty. Free online, full-text searchable.

EconLib-1826: ''An Essay on the Principle of Population,'' 6th edition, 1826. Library of Economics and Liberty. Free online, full-text searchable. Malthus published a major revision to his first edition—his second edition—in 1803. His 6th edition, published 1826, and revising his various 2nd-5th editions, became his widely cited final revision.

Online chapter ''MALTHUS AND THE EVOLUTIONISTS:THE COMMON CONTEXT OF BIOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL THEORY'' from ''Darwin's Metaphor: Nature's Place in Victorian Culture'' by Professor Robert M. Young (1985, 1988, 1994). Cambridge University Press.

The Malthus Myth with Ian Angus, May 22, 2010.

Category:1766 births Category:1834 deaths Category:Alumni of Jesus College, Cambridge Category:Classical economists Category:Demographers Category:English Anglican priests Category:English economists Category:English essayists Category:English Anglicans Category:Anglican writers Category:Christian writers Category:English non-fiction writers Category:English religious writers Category:English scientists Category:English theologians Category:Fellows of the Royal Society Category:Green thinkers Category:History of evolutionary biology Category:Non-fiction environmental writers Category:People from Mole Valley (district) Category:Political economy Category:Population Category:Proto-evolutionary biologists Category:Sustainability advocates

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Jack A. Goldstone is an American sociologist and political scientist, specializing in studies of social movements, revolutions, and international politics. According to Peter Turchin (''Historical dynamics''. Princeton: PUP, 2003), he made a significant contribution to the development of cliodynamics. He is an author or editor of 9 books and nearly 100 research articles.

He is currently a professor in the School of Public Policy at George Mason University. He has also worked as a consultant of the US government, for example, serving as chair of the National Research Council's evaluation of USAID Democracy Assistance Programs.

Publications[link]

Selected publications:

''Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies'' Foreign Affairs (2011)

''The New Population Bomb'', Foreign Affairs (2010)

''Why Europe? The Rise of the West in World History 1500-1850'' (2008)

''Silence and Voice in Contentious Politics'' (2001)

''Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World'' (1991)

''Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century'' (1991)

References[link]

New Population Bomb - Goldstone's blog on The Megatrends Shaping International Security and National Politics

Goldstone's homepage at George Mason University

Goldstone's faculty page at GMU's School of Public Policy

Goldstone's Bio at Mercatus Center

External links[link]

Responses to Tilly's "Predictions"

Review of Goldstone's Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World, Journal of Social History, Summer, 1993 by Michael Richards

JACK GOLDSTONE: “CONTAINING TEHRAN”

Jack Goldstone’s Model and the English Civil War by Brandon W Duke

The Revolution Over the Revolution by Lawrence Stone

Who's Counting By JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Whose Measure of Reality?

Category:American sociologists Category:Revolution theorists Category:American political scientists Category:Living people Category:Sociologists

ru:Голдстоун, Джек