Limited Israeli Easing of Gaza Blockade Greeted with Dismay

Despite the breathless flurry of approving statements provoked by the English-language pledge issued by the prime minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu that the blockade of Gaza would be ‘eased,’ in fact , Haaretz reports, the Hebrew text of the communique does not indicate that the cabinet made any such decision, and there has been no change at the border checkpoint.

Even if Israel were actually doing what the English text indicated, the Palestinians, the United Nations and aid NGOs do not see the measure as going nearly far enough. PLO spokesman Saeb Erekat dismissed the announced easing as an effort

‘”to make it appear that it has eased its four-year blockade . . . In reality, the siege of the Gaza Strip, illegally imposed on Palestinians, continues unabated. Israel has a so-called ‘white list’ of only 114 items. Palestinian basic needs require at least 8,000 items that continue to be prohibited. These include essential materials for rebuilding and for waste-water treatment.” ‘

For one thing, how many items are let in is less important than the volume of each. The Irish Times quotes Robert Serry, the head of the Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). During the first week in June, imports declined by a quarter, even though Israel expanded the list of allowed imports by 11 food and health items. OCHA says that the amount of staples and aid going into Gaza is only about 17% of the goods routinely allowed in before the blockade began. So an ‘easing’ would not even restore the status quo ante of pre-2007.

Although in public and in English Israeli spokesmen stress that the purpose of the blockade is to keep arms out of the hands of Hamas, the fundamentalist party-militia that dominates Gaza, in fact an internal document ferreted out by McClatchy demonstrates that the blockade has all along mainly aimed at punishing innocent civilians. If you think about it, the idea that Hamas can form a conventional challenge to Israel, using e.g. tanks, is ridiculous.

Professor Ian Lustick argues that Israel should just take that truce Hamas is always offering, just as Egypt and Jordan have done with their versions of Hamas– and stop trying to pretend that Israel isn’t in the Middle East or that it can change the Middle East all around at will.

The Irish Times quotes Sami Abu Zuhri, a spokesman for Hamas, to the effect that “What is needed is a complete lifting of the blockade. Goods and people must be free to enter and leave. Gaza especially needs construction material, which must be allowed to come in without restrictions.” He called lifting the bans on chocolates and potato chips “frivolous.”

Christopher Gunness, spokesman of the UN Relief and Works Agency, which cares for Palestinian refugees, said: “We look at deeds not words. There is a massive amount of rebuilding to do in Gaza. Four thousand homes were destroyed, another 17,000 damaged during the [ 2008-09] war. The agency needs to repair its schools and build 100 new schools for 39,000 children.

Aljazeera English reports on the reaction of Gaza’s government. It also points out that there would be no chocolate in the Palestinian Gaza Strip if it weren’t for smuggling through tunnels. And even children’s toys had been banned, officially making the Israelis the Grinches of the Middle East.

Letting children have toys is hardly a big step toward ending the siege. If the Israelis really do, as they pledged in English, allow cement and steel in, that would at least allow the 8% of Palestinians whose homes were destroyed by the Israeli military in winter 2008-2009 to rebuild. But the main problem is with any sort of blockade of goods other than guns and explosives. The blockade kills employment and investment, guaranteeing malnutrition in children. In famines, people do not starve because there is no food. They starve because they cannot afford to buy food suddenly become expensive. Likewise, the 10% of Palestinian children in Gaza who have experienced stunted growth are just in families where the breadwinner has been unemployed for a long time and in which relief aid doesn’t quite go far enough. “Easing” the blockade will have no effect on employment, which is very low, perhaps 40%, and therefore will not address the most pressing problem.

An Italian humanitarian familiar with Gaza makes the same point at Russia Today:

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Turkey Shelves Israeli Cooperation,
Considers breaking off Ties;
Israel Lobbies in Congress denounce Ankara

Members of the US Congress attacked Turkey on Wednesday for voting against the UN Security Council resolution imposing further sanctions on Iran, and for its heavy criticism of the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Rep. Mike Pence (R-Indiana) said, “There will be a cost if Turkey stays on its present heading of growing closer to Iran and more antagonistic to the state of Israel.” Pence said he was reconsidering whether to vote for a resolution condemning Turkey for the WW I era Armenian genocide.

The Israel lobbies, after defending Turkey from Armenian complaints for decades, have all of a sudden discovered the Armenian holocaust now that Turkey is criticizing Israel. This change is important because passage of a congressional recognition of the genocide would open Turkey to lawsuits, whereby Armenian political groups could capture Turkish assets in the United States.

On Turkish steps against Israel, NowLebanon reports:

‘ Ankara has not taken any practical steps on the matter yet, however, potential punitive measures include freezing military agreements that exceed $7 billion in worth, said the source.

He also said that bilateral pilot training programs and intelligence exchanges would also be suspended, adding that Turkey will not send a new ambassador to Tel Aviv after it recalled the current one following last month’s raid.’

Turkey is angry that Israel refuses to apologize for its raid on the Turkish ships in Gaza aid convoy, which left 8 Turks and one American of Turkish origin dead. Turkey also wants an international inquiry, not an internal Israeli one. And, of course, Turkey insists on a lifting of the blockade of Gaza.

In pressuring Israel on these matters, the Turkish government is playing chicken and risking a thoroughgoing rift with its ally.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has shelved 16 bilateral agreements and, as noted above, billions of dollars worth of joint weapons programs. If the government of PM Binyamin Netanyahu continues to refuse to cooperate with an interntional commission of inquiry, Turkey will not send a new ambassador to Tel Aviv.

Turkey also intends to embarrass Israel with the European Union and in other international forums until it gets an apology.

At the same time, Turkey insisted that a distinction should be made between inter-government relations and private commercial relations. It is leading no consumer boycott of Israeli goods in Turkey, and Turkish Foreign Trade Minister Zafer Çağlayan warned Israel against boycotting Turkish companies.

Some Israeli supermarket chains are boycotting Turkish produce. And, the Israeli public has already largely boycotted tourism in Turkey this year and the Netanyahu government is actively urging them to vacation within Israel, in keeping with its bunker mentality.

Most of Turkey’s foreign trade is with the European Union, the United States, and Russia, and Turkey does more business with Iran than with Israel, which is not among its top ten trading partners. Some have called Turkey’s newfound interest in the Muslim Middle East “neo-ottomanism.”

Congress should be careful not to over-reach in this intervention against Turkey on behalf of the Israel lobbies. Some 70 percent of resupply of US troops in Iraq is carried out through Incirlik Base in Turkey, and Turkey is part of the NATO force in Afghanistan. In the absence of good relations with Turkey, the United States would face significant logistical problems in the region.

Erdogan’s shelving of the bilateral agreements, and the potential cancellation of billiions in joint military equipment ventures, raise the question of whether Turkey is still a military ally of Israel. Until the blockade of Gaza is lifted and Israel apologizes to Turkey for the flotilla raid and the loss of Turkish life, Israel will become more isolated than ever before. While that isolation may suit the cult-like Likud Party, since it thrives on xenophobism and insularity, as well as on naked aggression, it cannot be good for Israel as a whole.

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Obama Launches Green Equivalent of Moon Mission

President Obama for the first time addressed the nation from the Oval Office on Tuesday evening, on the Gulf of Mexico oil volcano.

The address came as scientists revised upward their estimate of how much petroleum is daily gushing into the Gulf, deciding it is between 35,000 and 60,000. Only 18,000 barrels a day is currently being captured, i.e. between a half and a fourth of what is spewing out.

In his speech, Obama pledged that BP would set up a special fund to compensate victims of the oil tsunami now assaulting the shores of the US along the Gulf of Mexico. He promised that BP and the US government efforts to clean up the oil and said he would set up a long-term Gulf Recovery program.

But beyond clean-up, Obama seized the moment to push for a fundamental reconsideration of the nation’s approach to transportation (petroleum in the US is mainly used to fuel automobiles and other vehicles). ITN has video:

The full transcript is here.

Obama insisted that there is a role for government both in regulating the petroleum corporations and in being a “catalyst” for jump-starting green energy companies, as China has. Presumably he is speaking of tax breaks, ease of obtaining loans, and other incentives. He compared a government crash program to enable green energy to putting a man on the moon.

In that part of his speech, the words of John F. Kennedy echoed in my mind:

‘ We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. It is for these reasons that I regard the decision last year to shift our efforts in space from low to high gear as among the most important decisions that will be made during my incumbency in the office of the Presidency.

As Obama pointed out, Kennedy faced his naysayers and doubters, just as green energy advocates do today.

Obama is entirely correct that government intervention is needed if we are to get a relatively quick and smooth transition to green energy, which which Greenpeace now estimates could be accomplished by 2050 with an investment of $7 trillion (beyond the $11 trillion the world will have to spend to keep power flowing to tomorrow’s bigger population at today’s rates).

But we need more than targeted, temporary tax breaks from the federal government. We need permanent tax breaks across the board for green energy companies, and we need federally backed loan programs.

As I argued yesterday, it would be helpful if the government stopped its massive overt and hidden subsidies for petroleum. In fact, Senator Bernie Sanders (my hero) is proposing an end to $35 billion in oil and gas tax breaks. But you wonder if Sander’s bill has a chance in a Congress so heavily indebted to Big Oil. Unless Obama can change the incentive structure in favor of green energy, his chances of success are slim.

Pro-active government tax breaks and other incentives for alternative energy are also highly desirable, as Germany has demonstrated. I was interested to discover that insurance was offered on wind turbines to encourage skittish companies to buy them. In the European Union as a whole, new wind energy generation has equaled or surpassed energy produced by new natural gas plants in recent years, as a result. In the US,
New Jersey is trying to make it easier for wind turbine companies to get loans. While the Obama administration gave out $3.2 billion in tax breaks to green firms last winter, these tax credits are temporary. I ask myself why.

Some American cities are not waiting for the Federal government. My neighbor, Toledo, Ohio, has developed a partnership of academics, businesses, workers and the city government to turn the place into a major solar equipment production hub.

But solar is lagging in the US, in large part because the federal government has not created a favorable environment for its growth (it produces less that 1% of America’s energy at the moment).

Toledo shouldn’t have to do this alone, folks. Lets help them, and let us use the federal government to do it.

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Posted in Energy, Environment, Uncategorized | 16 Comments

Big Oil’s Predations are not Your Fault

No, the BP oil volcano in the Gulf of Mexico is not your fault, despite what many pundits will tell you. Back in the 1960s when the environmental movement got going, major US corporations responsible for much of the nation’s pollution decided to fight it by paying for television advertising that urged individuals not to litter, thus implying that pollution is produced by anarchic individuals rather than by organized businesses. It was a crock then and it is a crock now.

You did not demand that BP consistently cut safety corners more than any other petroleum company, thus resulting in the Deepwater Horizon calamity, which could end up costing the economy of the Gulf of Mexico literally hundreds of billions of dollars this year.

How much the Gulf oil catastrophe is not your fault can more clearly be seen if we consider the ways in which a BP refinery in Indiana is threatening the Great Lakes with excess pollution.

The BP refinery received permission from the Indiana legislature to increase its ammonia and silt (infested with toxic heavy metals) output into the Lakes. The increased pollution was part of an expansion of the refinery to allow it to process Canadian tar sands. In addition, BP has illegally spewed extra benzene into the lakes (benzene is a known cause of leukemia) and has also repeatedly broken the law with regard to air pollution standards.

You did not ask BP to dump extra benzene illegally into Lake Michigan (the lakes are connected). You did not agitate in Indianapolis to permit the refinery to expand to handle tar sand, which is all by itself an ecological catastrophe. You did not demand that more ammonia and toxic metals be dumped into the lakes. None of these crimes against nature was your individual responsibility.

Rather, the Indiana legislature passed these laws because of ‘legislative capture.’ That phenomenon occurs when an industry that is supposed to be regulated by a legislature instead pays so much for political campaigns that it captures the members and proves able to write the legislation affecting its interests. Legislative capture explains almost everything that is wrong with America today, from the wars to the difficulty in expanding health care, and from inaction on climate change to the high price of prescription drugs.

Legislative capture is not your fault.

In fact, it is mostly the fault of Ronald Reagan, who so lowered taxes on the rich that he allowed them to capture almost all the country’s increased wealth since the 1980s, depriving ordinary Americans of any real increase in the standard of living. Since our filthy rich quadrupled their wealth in recent decades but most of you don’t have 4 times as much money in the bank as you used to, you are competing less and less well with the rich for access to and influence with your elected representatives.

This year a man worth $9 billion died and passed it on to his children without paying any estate tax at all, thanks to the Republican Party. This situation is creating a permanent aristocracy of the sort that in the eighteenth century ruled the 13 colonies in the East and the northern territories of the Spanish Empire in the West, all of which now have congealed into the United States. One of the points of the American Revolution from the point of view of Thomas Jefferson was to make the country safe for middling, yeoman farmers and to prevent the distant colonial aristocracy from taxing us without representation.

Our new business aristocracy, whether Big Oil or Big Banking, taxes us indirectly by legislative capture, by arranging for bought-and-paid-for politicians to subsidize their industries with public tax monies. There is nothing wrong with being wealthy, and often the wealthy have made key contributions to society. But let us face it. Business classes are interested in short-term profit and seldom think in terms of long-term cost-benefit for society. Having a dynamic business class in a society can be a plus if its focus on short-term gain for the company can be offset by other powerful forces in society– labor unions, NGOs, intellectuals and others. But when the business classes get so they own nearly half the privately held wealth, they can overwhelm everyone else and take society in self-destructive directions– as happened with the Iraq War, the economic collapse in September of 2008 and with the oil rig collapse in April 2010.

And that is not your fault.

Now, part of what the pundits are saying when they say the Gulf oil gusher is your fault is that you like to drive your car inexpensively to work, and so you are part of a consumer market that motivates BP to drill. But it is grossly unfair to blame you, the worker, for the difficulty of getting to work by much more efficient rail or for allegedly rejecting electric vehicles powered by .e.g. wind farms.

The US government gives and has for decades given massive hidden subsidies to the petroleum industry that make gasoline seem far less expensive than than it is, and auto, cement and oil corporations successfully lobbied for taxpayer subsidies for highway systems rather than for rail and public transport.

You did not ask them to do that.

Joe Blumenauer notes:

‘Oil companies receive special deductions lowering their effective tax rate to about 11 percent, compared to 18 percent for non-oil industries. This has cost an estimated $200 billion since 1968 and, with soaring industry profits in recent years, is growing at an ever-increasing rate. ‘

The cost of licenses for offshore drilling have been mysteriously slashed by the Department of the Interior, a way of transferring your money to the oil companies and of actually promoting offshore drilling, with all its potential to harm you environmentally and economically. Do you remember lobbying the Mines and Minerals Service for that one?

Even the wars you are paying for in the Perso-Arabian Gulf and in Central Asia, as well as the aid given Israel and Egypt, amounting altogether to over $100 billion a year, must be seen as a subsidy to big oil.

And then, the cost of water, soil and air pollution is not figured into the price of a gallon of gasoline. It is charged to the taxpayer in various ways. And, global warming is also not figured into the cost of gasoline.

In fact, the various deep subsidies that you are involuntarily giving Big Oil are being used in part to buy a propaganda campaign to convince you that climate change has been exaggerated and is nothing to worry about. Ironic, ain’t it?

But that is not your fault, either.

People keep saying that wind power is ‘just about’ competitive with oil and gas. But in fact if the true cost of oil and gas were properly calculated, and all the hidden subsidies were removed, wind would be revealed to be much cheaper than these other power sources are. Even solar might make a good showing in that case. (Don’t bother complaining to me about the limits of wind turbines and solar cells; they have those limits because not enough research and development money has been thrown at them by the government and by government-engineered incentives to private business. A reader complained that the investment had not worked with regard to fusion but that is silly. Wind and solar are proven but infant technologies and Germany has already shown that government support makes a big difference here.)

The subsidies for petroleum are unlikely to be lifted. This outcome is not because you will lobby congress and the senate to keep supporting big oil with your tax dollars. It is because of legislative capture. Too many elected representatives secretly run on the Big Oil Party ticket. (And no, it is not true that President Obama is more guilty of that than were his opponents).

It would help if the US Supreme Court did not recognize corporations as persons and did not confuse political campaign money with free speech, and if it would allow Germany’s practice of making campaign ads free. Then our elected representatives would not have to spend all their time raising money for television commercials from corporations in return for legislative quid pro quos. But the Court is appointed by the politicians who are victims of legislative capture, and it therefore represents the interests of Big Business.

I don’t know how to turn this thing around. I don’t know how to get free campaign commercials, or less money in politics, or stop legislative capture or halt the enthronement of the New American Business Aristocracy, with its all too frequent focus on short-term profit over long-term public welfare. I don’t know how to stop offshore drilling or wean us all off petroleum-fueled automobiles (I know that such a weaning would in any case take decades–but we haven’t even begun). Me, I ride my bike into work 9 months of the year.

I do know that many congressional Democrats see the current tragedy as a once-in-a-century opportunity to reformulate energy policy away from petroleum, and that they will need an outpouring of public support and of public donations to pull that off.

If you don’t support them in this push to begin getting away from hydrocarbons, then whatever follows– will be your fault.

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Meh story about $1 Trillion in Minerals in Afghanistan

The report that geologists have found $1 trillion in mineral wealth in Afghanistan is less important than it seems..

That Afghanistan has minerals is not in fact news. But none of the sort of research that would be necessary to place a value on them has been done, so no one actually knows what they are worth of if they are worth anything after expenses.

Then, for a country of 34 million, it isn’t that much money even if the minerals could easily be extracted and actually exist in the imagined quantities. If you mined $100 billion a year, that would be a lower middle class income for the country, but only for 10 years. And, then back to grinding poverty.

In contrast, the nominal gross domestic product of the United States is on the order of $14 trillion, year after year.

It is silly to say that $1 trillion in hard-to-mine minerals in a landlocked Afghanistan make it like Saudi Arabia. The latter has 267 billion barrels of petroleum that is fairly easy to get at and to export, which at today’s prices is worth over $18 trillion. Not to mention its natural gas.

The US will likely end up spending $1 trillion destroying things in Afghanistan.

So even if the whole benefit of the minerals went to the US, it would be in the hole.

Hype.

See also The Atlantic and

Politico.com.

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Palestinians Need a State: Loosening Blockade is not Enough

One problem with the focus the Israeli raid on the Gaza aid flotilla is that it may make it appear that the Israeli blockade of Gaza is the central issue. Then any Israeli loosening of the blockade would seem to be an advance.

In fact, the blockade is not the problem but is rather a symptom of the underlying issue, which is Palestinian statelessness. Gazans have no state. What the Israelis deign to call the ‘Hamas regime’ is no such thing because it lacks sovereignty, over its borders, air, sea, imports and exports. (The idea that Israel is ‘at war’ with its own occupied territory is laughable.) The Israeli ‘withdrawal’ of 2005 simply removed a few thousand colonists and withdrew troops, usually, to the borders. But it did not allow the creation of a sovereign state. Gazans are excluded from a third of their own farmland by Israeli restrictions on where people can live. That so many Gazans are unemployed, that their industries have collapsed, that they are food insecure, and that malnutrition is causing stunting in 10% of children– all these outrages derive from their lack of a sovereign state to look out for their interests.

The International Committee of the Red Cross issued a report this weekend detailing the harm to Gazan children and civilians of the blockade. Most do not even have clean water to drink.

Aljazeera English also reports on the impact of the blockade on Gaza’s children:

Nevertheless, the problems inflicted on Gazans by the Israeli blockade will not be resolved by a loosening of the blockade. They will only be resolved by the bestowal of citizenship on Gazans, either by a Palestinian state (which does not exist and would have to be created) or by Israel (which does not want the Gazans as citizens but may end up being stuck with them).

What I cannot understand is how Israel, the US, and the European Union expect this thing to end. In the West Bank there are three political processes. First, there are the proximity talks between Palestine Authority president Mahmoud Abbas and the Israelis (talks about the conditions for talks). Second, there are municipal elections this summer in the West Bank. Third, the ‘Fayyad Plan’ calls for the Palestine Authority to have some 20,000 trained security forces in the West Bank by summer 2011, at which point Salim Fayyad, the appointed prime minister of the Palestine Authority and his government could well declare an independent state.

But in Gaza there is no political process and no prospect of one. The fundamentalist party, Hamas, won the January 2006 parliamentary elections in the Palestine Authority. But the Israelis and the US immediately rejected its victory and kidnapped parliamentarians and disrupted the government and then supported a coup in the West Bank by Fatah, the secular nationalist party of president Abbas. An attempt to extend the coup to the Gaza Strip failed, so Hamas remained in power there. The Israelis have attempted to overthrow and dislodge Hamas, including through the blockade on ordinary civilians and through the 2008-09 Gaza War, but so far have failed.

Unless a way can be found to hold legitimate elections in Gaza, it will remain isolated, even from other Palestinians in the West Bank, both politically and economically, so that the lives of its inhabitants will continue to be hell. The Israeli far right, now in power politically, will use the isolation of Gaza to argue that there is no single Palestinian representative with whom they can negotiate, and that they therefore do not need to negotiate, and can go blockading Gazans and stealing the land of West Bank Palestinians.

To repeat: the Israeli blockade of Gaza is a war crime and it is harming the health and well-being of the Gazans. But it is not in and of itself the problem, such that easing the blockade solves anything fundamental. Incorporation of Gazans into a sovereign state such that they have citizenship and can exercise popular sovereignty is the key to any real advance.

It seems to me therefore less than earth-shaking that the White House is backing an internal Israeli inquiry into its fatal raid in international waters against an aid flotilla that aimed at helping the civilian population of the Gaza Strip. The commission will have some distinguished Europeans on it as observers, but the performance of the Israeli authorities with regard to investigating their own during the 2008-2009 Gaza War and Tel Aviv’s demonization of Judge Richard Goldstone and the Goldstone Report do not encourage confidence. Moreover, even if the commission found that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu erred in sending commandos to board the Mavi Marmara aid ship, it is hard to see how the ordinary people of Gaza would benefit from such a finding.

In any case, Washington and Tel Aviv no longer have infinite time to resolve the issue. The blockade of civilians is backfiring on the Israelis by provoking more and more aid ships.

Even little Bahrain is sending aid to Gaza. And, Iran is planning an aid flotilla (I expect real trouble over that one). And Turkey is planning another, this time possibly with the Turkish prime minister aboard (major international conflict looming, possibly even hostilities).

The international community has to stop dithering and intervene to end this Israeli lawlessness in Gaza, and provide a path for Gazans to citizenship in some sovereign state. The consequences of not doing so are now potentially explosive.

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Posted in Israel/ Palestine, Uncategorized | 21 Comments

The Greens in Iran are a Movement, not a Coup

Small protests broke out around Iran on June 12, the anniversary of the 2009 presidential election, which protesters say was stolen by the country’s clerical Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on behalf of his favored candidate, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The Associated Press has video:

What was the Green Movement? A debate rages among Iran-watchers. Partisans see it as a sign that Iran is on the verge of a massive democratization. Critics see it as an exaggerated hiccup, barely more important than the student protests of the late 1990s, which amounted to nothing. Which interpretation is right has implications for US foreign policy. If the regime is tottering, the Obama administration can afford to batter it with sanctions and ignore it, hoping to help it fall. If it is strong and enduring, then it will have to be dealt with and probably direct negotiations are called for.

The reality lies in the middle. Named in honor of the color associated with the descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, among whom presidential candidate Mir Hosain Mousavi is counted, the Green Movement is a social movement that protested what its followers saw as the stealing of the June 12, 2009, election by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his patron, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It is certainly the largest social movement in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It is frankly ridiculous to class it with the earlier small student demonstrations.

Sociologist Charles Tilly defined a social movement as a cluster of groups that challenge the state in a sustained way, engaging in an attempt to effect some change in the status quo. A movement is not an organization and so lacks the institutionalization and reporting lines of a political party’s electoral campaign. If that distinction is kept in mind, we can call a social movement a sort of campaign for some goal.

The civil rights movement of Dr. Martin Luther King and his associates is probably the best example of a successful social movement recognizable to most Americans.

The social movement attempts to demonstrate that it has large numbers of committed members, that it is united, and that it should be taken seriously.

To this end, the social movement engages in public political action, including demonstrations, processions, rallies, making statements, and sometimes violence and contention. But it also appeals to cultural symbols as part of these contentious gatherings.

The Green Movement failed in its initial goals, which were to force an aboveboard investigation of fraud in the June 12 election results, and possibly the holding of a new election. It is now sometimes forgotten that the movement did not seek the overthrow of the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It was about who should be president, and about insisting that the electoral institutions of that republic– the presidency and the parliament– be chosen through popular sovereignty without intervention from the appointive institutions (the supreme clerical Leader, the judiciary, the security forces).

The Greens probably did, however, succeed in weakening the legitimacy of the regime. Whereas before June, 2009, few Iranians would have been willing to say that supreme clerical leader Khamenei is a crook, a significant number now doubt his probity. That number is not a majority, but it is a vocal minority. In that sense, the debacle of the 2009 election saps Khamenei’s authority just as the priest pedophile controversy has much weakened Pope Benedict among Catholics. Those analysts who discount cultural movements and the whole idea of legitimacy as underpinning authority will be unpersuaded that this change is important. But I believe it is, in the medium to long term though not in the short term.

The movement failed to attain its short term primary goal for two major internal reasons:

  • The security establishment of the Islamic Republic remained united and rallied to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad. A split in the military or the paramilitary institutions would have created a condition of multiple sovereignty, which Tilly sees as typical of revolutionary situations. But although the political elite split, unevenly, the generals did not.
  • The security establishment developed tools for combating the repertoires of social action deployed by the Greens. Did they use cell phones, texting, twitter and facebook to gather flashmobs, spontaneous urban crowds? Then cellphone signals were cut, web pages were blocked and facebook pages were infiltrated. Did they assemble in large numbers? Streets were cut off and crowds were controlled. Did they mount processions? Basij civil militiamen were sent out on motorcycles to disrupt them, beat them and arrest the recalcitrant. Did they gather in rallies to denounce the regime? They were assaulted by police. The beatings and torture and occasional executions to which some protesters were subjected served to signal that the regime was willing to raise the cost of protest to the maximum. The ways in which the regime attacked family members of prominent dissidents also terrorized would-be challengers.
  • The downside for the regime is that it must now depend more on power (i.e. imposition of rule by force) and less on authority (the likelihood that a command will be obeyed voluntarily). Regimes based on brute power are less often long-lasting than those based on authority.

    I argued at Tomdispatch that US and Israeli hypocrisy also helped the hardliners internationally.

    The Greens could not split the generals and they could not withstand the onslaught of the dedicated security forces. They could have nevertheless won, perhaps, if a majority of parliamentarians and major clerics on the Guardianship Council were to swing behind their demand for new elections. No such swing occurred. The speaker of parliament was willing to criticize Ahmadinejad, but not to try to unseat him. The Guardianship Council in the end stood with Khamenei.

    One final possibility would have been for the movement to become so popular that it was able to put large numbers of people in the street sufficiently often, and to mount strikes and other crippling forms of contentious action with sufficient regularity, to make the ordinary functioning of the government impossible and so to force a compromise. But they were unable to maintain the momentum of the second half of 2009 in the new year, and could not be so disruptive throughout the country as to force the regime to the negotiating table.

    Unlike the US civil rights movement, which had as its major goal the repeal of Jim Crow laws, the Green Movement has no single, simple, legislative object that could easily be implemented by parliament and the supreme leader. It has not been able to force Ahmadinejad to resign or to force new elections.

    This failure to achieve a practical political change at the top in the course of a year does not indicate that the Green Movement is unimportant or dead. It can survive and be influential if it finds new tactics or repertoires of sustainable collective action that cannot so easily be forestalled by the security forces, and if it identifies some simple, practical change it wants legislated other than the holding of new elections. It should be remembered that the Civil Rights movement in the US took about a decade to succeed legislatively, and much longer to effect real social and cultural change.

    If it is a movement for free speech and political transparency, then it should put forward a program for legislation that would implement these ideals, and keep the pressure on the regime to enact it.

    In the meantime, the Obama administration must face certain realities:

  • The regime seems fairly stable in the short to medium term and so presents Washington with an ongoing political reality that must be engaged rather than ignored
  • Direct negotiations with the regime no more constitute a betrayal of the Greens than did direct negotiations with the Soviet leadership represent a betrayal of Soviet dissidents such as Sakharov.
  • There is no reason to think that were the Green Movement to come to power, it would suddenly mothball the country’s nuclear enrichment program, so that one of the main points of contention between Washington and Tehran must be addressed in any case.
  • It must be understood that a US or Israeli military strike on Iran would certainly cause the Iranian public to rally around the regime and would effectively destroy the Green Movement and any hope of internal political change.
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    Posted in Iran, Uncategorized | 23 Comments

    Schumer’s Sippenhaftung and the Children of Gaza

    “Gaza” is an abstraction to most Israelis, including [partisans of Israel like] Sen. Charles Schumer of New York. A majority of the 1.5 million Gazans is not even from Gaza, but rather is from what is now Israel.

    Americans do not know, and perhaps do not care, that 68% of Gazans are refugees living in 8 refugee camps, who were ethnically cleansed and violently expelled from their homes in 1947-48, in what is now Israel. And no, they were not combatants, just civilians caught up in a civil war of sorts. They lost massive amounts of property and their homes, which would now be worth billions, but have never received a dime from the Israelis in reparations or compensation. Then in winter of 2008-2009, the Israeli military destroyed one in every eight Palestinian homes, rendering even more people homeless.

    Schumer accuses the Gazans of not ‘recognizing’ Israel, which is sort of like accusing the pelicans in the Gulf of Mexico of not ‘recognizing’ BP. If Schumer wants the recognition and good will of the Gazans, he should arrange for them to be paid for the homes and farms out of which they were chased by the Israelis, who made them homeless refugees in a kind of vast concentration camp in Gaza, and are now half-starving them.

    Think Progress reveals that Schumer told an Orthodox audience:

    ‘ SCHUMER: The Palestinian people still don’t believe in the Jewish state, in a two-state solution. More do than before, but a majority still do not. Their fundamental view is, the Europeans treated the Jews badly and gave them our land — this is Palestinian thinking [...] They don’t believe in the Torah, in David [...] You have to force them to say Israel is here to stay. The boycott of Gaza to me has another purpose — obviously the first purpose is to prevent Hamas from getting weapons by which they will use to hurt Israel — but the second is actually to show the Palestinians that when there’s some moderation and cooperation, they can have an economic advancement. When there’s total war against Israel, which Hamas wages, they’re going to get nowhere. And to me, since the Palestinians in Gaza elected Hamas, while certainly there should be humanitarian aid and people not starving to death, to strangle them economically until they see that’s not the way to go, makes sense.

    So anything short of ‘starving to death’, i.e. mass extermination in the camps, is all right as long as it convinces the enemy?

    How about something short of starving to death, such as 10% of children being stunted from malnutrition? Would that be worth it? Or a majority of Gazans being ‘food insecure’ according to the United Nations? [pdf]. Both are the current situation, which is supported by Schumer.


    How about Gaza children Looking for food in garbage?

    Some 56% of Gazans are children, who hardly voted for Hamas but whom Schumer wishes to punish economically.

    Meanwhile, Schumer doesn’t recognize a Palestinian state, but he nevertheless gets three solid meals a day.


    Sen. Charles Schumer at crumpets and tea

    As Think Progress explained, nothing Schumer said is true. A majority of Palestinians favors a two-state solution. Moreover, Palestinians are Christians and Muslims, who do in fact acknowledge the Torah (the Hebrew Bible, which the Qur’an praises as full of guidance and light) and David (whom the Qur’an calls “Da’ud.”) Schumer is shamelessly ignorant about Palestinian culture, but it is true that they do not draw from David’s existence or from the Qur’an’s praise of the Torah or Bible the same conclusion as contemporary political Zionists or Jewish nationalists, that Jews have a right to expel local people from Palestine and usurp their property without compensation. But then virtually no Jews drew such a conclusion in the United States until after World War II, and most diaspora Jews rejected such an idea until that era.

    As for the idea that all Gazans, including children, should be economically punished until they agree with Schumer’s Zionism, there is only one way that makes sense. Since the children of Gaza did not vote for Hamas, if they are being punished for Hamas’s crimes, then it must be because they are related to Hamas members.

    Punishing people because they are related to enemies of the state is called in German Sippenhaft or Sippenhaftung. Look it up. I don’t usually like such analogies from the 1930s and 1940s in Europe to contemporary Zionist thinking because they inevitably offend even a sympathetic Jewish audience. But it should be noted that Sippenhaftung was implemented against gentile German family members of dissidents such as those involved in the plot to assassinate Hitler, and that Stalin also deployed the tactic of punishing relatives of perceived dissidents. And there is no other way to read Schumer’s prescription for putting Gazan children on a diet than as a contemporary form of Sippenhaftung.

    And it is shameful, and he deserves the comparison for these inhumane sentiments.

    Here is the video of Schumer saying what he said:

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    Dayan Calls for Assassination of Erdogan via Sinking of his Proposed Aid Ship

    The former deputy general Chief of Staff of the Israeli military has called for a proposed aid ship to Gaza from Turkey to be sunk by the Israeli navy. Since the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pledged to be aboard the proposed vessel, Uzi Dayan, the nephew of Moshe Dayan, was implicitly calling for the assassination of the Turkish prime minister.

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    One Hour of Video Released by Gaza Aid Worker

    A full hour of raw video from the Mavi Marmara Gaza aid ship from before and during the brutal and illegal assault on it in international waters by Israeli commandos is now up at YouTube. It was shot by Brazilian passenger Iara Lee of culturesofresistance. org:

    I thought this comment at reddit.com useful.

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