GiveWell's CEA of New Incentives' conditional cash transfers to increase infant vaccination (public)

	A	C	E	F
1	Guide to interpreting this cost-effectiveness analysis

2	Sheet descriptions
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4			Main CEA	This sheet contains the primary calculations that result in final cost-effectiveness estimates. This sheet draws on inputs from the "Inputs" sheet and inputs calculated in the other supplemental sheets listed below.
5			Aggregation across vaccines	This sheet contains our calculations for pulling CEA parameters from other supplementary sheets and aggregating them across vaccines before entering them in the "Main CEA" sheet.
6			Treatment effect	This sheet contains our calculations of the effect of New Incentives' program on vaccine uptake.
7			Disease burden	This sheet contains our calculations of vaccine-preventable disease burden among New Incentives' target population.
8			Vaccine coverage	This sheet contains our calculations of baseline vaccination coverage among New Incentives' target population, as well as vaccination coverage among populations represented by GBD disease burden estimates.
9			Vaccine efficacy	This sheet contains our calculations of the effect of vaccination on disease incidence for each vaccine incentivized by New Incentives' program.
10			Leverage/Funging	This sheet contains our calculations of the impact that crowding in and crowding out funding by other contributors has on the benefits of the program.
11			Inputs	This sheet contains all of the manually entered input values informing the CEA, along with the sources and reasoning supporting them. This sheet also contains inputs sourced from the "GBD estimates" sheet.
12			GBD estimates	This sheet contains disease burden and population datasets downloaded from the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME)'s Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project.
13			Simple CEA	This sheet contains a simplified version of the CEA that is designed to be comparable to our CEAs of other programs.
14			Sensitivity analysis	This sheet contains the outputs of a sensitivity analysis macro that tests the cost-effectiveness ranges that would result from updating certain inputs to their 25th or 75th percentile values.
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16	Terminology key
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18		Terms specific to this CEA
19			BCG vaccine	The Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine is designed to prevent tuberculosis and other mycobacterial infections. BCG is one of the vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program.
20			Penta vaccine	The pentavalent vaccine (referred to as Penta in this CEA) is a 5-in-1 vaccine that is designed to prevent diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, hepatitis B, and H. influenza type B infections. Penta is one of the vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program.
21			DTP vaccine	The DTP vaccine is designed to prevent diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus. In Nigeria, the DTP vaccine is typically delivered as part of the Penta vaccine, which is one of the vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program.
22			Hib vaccine	The HiB vaccine is designed to prevent H. influenzae type B (Hib) infections. In Nigeria, the Hib vaccine is typically delivered as part of the Penta vaccine, which is one of the vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program.
23			PCV vaccine	The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) is designed to prevent pneumococcal infections. PCV is one of the vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program.
24			Vaccine efficacy	The efficacy rate of a vaccine refers to the reduction in vaccine-targeted disease incidence among people who receive the vaccine compared to those who do not receive the vaccine.
25			Vaccine-preventable causes	In this CEA, we use "vaccine-preventable causes" to refer to causes of disease incidence and mortality that are addressable by the specific set of vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program.
26			Vaccine-preventable mortalities	In this CEA, we use "vaccine-preventable mortalities" to refer to mortalities that we expect would be averted if all children were fully vaccinated with the set of vaccines directly incentivized by New Incentives' program. Because vaccines are not 100% effective, the number of "vaccine-preventable mortalities" will always represent a subset of "mortalities from vaccine-preventable causes."
27			MICS survey	Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) are standardized household surveys implemented in many countries to collect data on a variety of indicators, including child vaccination rates.
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29		Terms used across GiveWell's CEAs
30			Internal validity	Describes an adjustment we make to the treatment effect of an intervention to account for the possibility that the treatment effects found in studies may not represent the true effect the intervention had on the populations studied.
31			External validity	Describes an adjustment we make to the treatment effect of an intervention to account for differences in the program implementation or populations treated in studies from the program implementation or populations treated by grantee programs.
32			Leverage	Describes a situation where a grantee's spending on a program causes other organizations or governments to contribute more to the program than they otherwise would have. In most cases, accounting for leverage increases cost-effectiveness
33			Funging	Describes a situation where a grantee's spending on a program causes other organizations or governments to contribute less to the program than they otherwise would have. In most cases, accounting for funging decreases cost-effectiveness.
34			Counterfactual	In most cases, describes the state of the world that would exist if we did not provide funding to a grantee for a program. When discussing the "counterfactual value of other actors' spending," we are referring to how much benefit another organization's or government's spending would generate if it were spent on something other than the grantee program.
35			Moral weights	To compare cost-effectiveness across different programs, we use �?moral weights’ to quantify the benefits of different program impacts (e.g. increased income vs reduced deaths). We benchmark the value of each benefit to a value of 1, which we define as the value of doubling someone’s consumption for one year.
36			Philanthropic actors	Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) providing funding to philanthropic programs.
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38	Unit and source key
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40		Unit labels used in the CEA
41			#	Number
42			per 1k	Rate per 1,000
43			per 100k	Rate per 100,000
44			$	U.S. dollars
45			ln($)	The natural logarithm of a monetary value
46			%	Percentage
47			ppt	Percentage points
48			UoV	Units of value: an arbitrary unit GiveWell uses to compare the moral value of different types of outcomes, such as saving lives or increasing income
49			xcash	Cost-effectiveness in terms of multiples of GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfer program
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51		Source labels used in the CEA
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53			Input	A value pulled from the "Inputs" sheet
54			Calc	A value calculated using other values in the same sheet
55			Supp	A value pulled from one of the sheets hosting supplemental calculations
56			Main	A value pulled from the "Main CEA" sheet
57			Feed	A value pulled from an earlier section within the same sheet
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59	GiveWell analyses informing this model
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61		Analyses specific to this CEA
62			GW's analysis of New Incentives cost per infant immunized
63			GW's analysis of the biomarkers pilot results for Nigeria
64			GW's analysis of self-report bias in vaccine coverage sources for New Incentives
65			GW's analysis of disease etiology for lower respiratory infections and meningitis
66			GW's analysis of average household size in Northwest Nigeria
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68		Analyses referenced across GiveWell's CEAs
69			GW's moral weights and discount rate
70			GW's supplemental intervention-level adjustments
71			GiveWell's CEA for GiveDirectly's unconditional cash transfers
72			GW's analysis of the counterfactual value of other actors' spending
73			GW's analysis of the counterfactual value of Global Fund spending
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