Here's how you can mitigate the risks of relying solely on intuition in decision making.

Getting information is the first step towards reducing the dangers associated with making decisions based only on intuition. You can support your gut feelings with empirical knowledge by gathering pertinent data, examining patterns, and taking historical results into account. Use data-driven decision-making procedures that use empirical evidence and intuition to ensure a more thorough grasp of the situation and lower the possibility of prejudice or inaccuracy. Accept data analytics tools and techniques to get useful insights, verify hypotheses, and improve the consistency of your decision-making processes, which will eventually result in better informed and useful outputs.

Employ robust data analytics to identify patterns, correlations, and insights that intuition alone might overlook. Ensure data integrity and reliability by employing rigorous verification and validation techniques. Utilise diverse data sources, including market research, historical data, and expert opinions, to construct a well-rounded evidentiary basis for informed decision-making, thereby minimising biases and enhancing strategic outcomes.

Effective data gathering and analysis helps decision makers verify, understand, and quantify complex issues that need rational and insightful solutions. But we can’t always rely on data alone to paint the full picture. This is especially true when the issues at hand are ambiguous or abstract. That’s when the ability to bring in our intuition—finely honed instincts based on expertise, experience, and good judgement—becomes critical to decision making.

There’s data and there’s data. Remember the old saying there’s lies d##n lies and.. statistics…the same goes for data… so make sure it’s diverse, objective, relevant and from the right source. A google search or a chat GPT query will not cut it but they might get you started, especially if you search for disconfirming data as part of your process.

I'm using payer payments or lack thereof as an example for the need to gather data. To gather data one can't rely on intuition or remembrance where data is concerned and needed to validate that the payer is paying correctly. One would need to research, go over at least five years of data to determine payment trends and if they are paying (1) according to their contract (2) is there a trend, such as underpayments, up-ticks and trends in payment, denials, reasons for denials, no payments, underpayments, patient responsibility, etc. Also, one would need to make sure that the payer contracts are up to date and that they are paying per their contract with the facility.

Try not to think of your peers as your competition. Working with them collaboratively creates a stronger organization for all. If you encourage the success of those around you, you will find success yourself. If you hold things to yourself and compete with your peers, even if you advance you will find yourself in a predicament where trust will be a challenge.

To mitigate the risks of relying solely on intuition in decision-making, seeking advice is imperative. Engage with subject matter experts and industry professionals to gain diverse perspectives. Establish advisory boards or consult with mentors who can provide critical insights and challenge assumptions. Ensure that advice is grounded in expertise and experience, and consider legal and regulatory implications where applicable. By incorporating external viewpoints, you can enrich your decision-making process, reduce biases, and enhance the overall robustness and credibility of your strategic decisions.

Seeking advice diversifies perspectives, reducing blind spots and validating decisions. It offers strategic guidance and fosters continual learning, enriching decision-making beyond intuition alone

Seeking for advice is a great tool when it comes to make a decision. Asking for advice or receiving feedback from others helps you grow mentally and professionally. If there is a chance for you to learn from others... take it!

Seeking advice where data is inconclusive is a better idea. If you want to catch a thief, think like a thief, and if you want to catch a lock pick, ask another lock pick. Peers, team members, subordinates are all your competition - make no mistake about it, but they are also the ones who will pull/push you up or get you kicked out too - ask but before you ask, know who to ask and know the WIIFT - why should they answer you?

Develope and analyse multiple hypothetical situations to anticipate potential outcomes and challenges. By creating diverse scenarios, you can explore the impacts of various variables and identify vulnerabilities in your strategy. Use these scenarios to test assumptions, evaluate risk management strategies, and develop contingency plans. This systematic exploration enables a thorough understanding of possible futures, thereby enhancing preparedness and resilience in decision-making processes.

Scenario planning in risk management requires a balanced approach, integrating logic, intuition, and scientific analysis. Logic ensures a structured assessment, intuition identifies subtle risks, and scientific analysis validates assumptions. This balanced approach optimizes risk mitigation by anticipating multiple potential futures and preparing effective responses.

La méthode des scénarios est un outil de planification permettant de concevoir des objectifs à long terme alors même que le futur reste indécis et incertain. On distingue principalement trois catégories de scénarios : les scénarios prédictifs, les scénarios exploratoires et scénarios normatifs. La conception de scénarios repose sur quatre étapes distinctes : la construction de la base, l’élaboration des images de situations futures, la vérification de la qualité des scénarios produits, et l’étude des conséquences de ces scénarios. Il existe principalement trois méthodes de scénario : l’« Intuitive Logics », la « Probabilistic Modified Trends », et « La Prospective ».

Trabalhar o desenvolvimento de um Plano de Cenário significa mostrar boa parte da experiência do profissional para mitigar o risco. Quanto mais tempo um profissional executa determinada função, a absorção do conhecimento atrelado a vivência, mais elevpoderá fazer, se antecipando no planejamento e consequentemente nas tomadas de decisões.

Decision-Making Frameworks: Use Structured Frameworks: Implement decision-making frameworks such as SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) or the Decision Matrix. These tools help in systematically evaluating options. Scenario Planning: Consider different scenarios and their potential impacts. This helps in preparing for various outcomes.

Define specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals to provide a structured framework for your actions. This clarity ensures that every decision aligns with the overarching strategic vision and organisational priorities. Regularly review and adjust objectives to reflect evolving circumstances and insights gained from data analysis and expert advice. By establishing well-defined objectives, you create a focused path forward, enabling more disciplined and objective decision-making, and reducing the influence of unstructured intuition.

It's important to have regular check ins against your objectives. You can even build in pre-defined go/no-go points where if you are not progressing in the way intended or interim objectives have not been met, there is either a radical change implemented or the project arm is stopped.

Choisir le bon cadre de définition des objectifs, c'est comme choisir la paire de lunettes idéale. La bonne paire peut apporter clarté et concentration et faire grimper la productivité en flèche.  Mais face à la multitude de cadres existants, comment choisir celui qui correspondra le mieux à la vision de votre organisation ?

Reviewing past decisions is crucial to mitigate the risks of relying solely on intuition in decision-making. Conduct a thorough analysis of previous outcomes to identify patterns, successes, and mistakes. This retrospective examination should include both quantitative data and qualitative insights to understand the underlying factors that influenced past decisions. By learning from historical successes and failures, you can refine your decision-making framework, anticipate potential pitfalls, and implement best practices. This reflective process not only enhances strategic planning but also reinforces a culture of continuous improvement and evidence-based decision-making within the organisation.

Moreover, seeking feedback from trusted mentors or colleagues can provide valuable perspectives on your intuitive decision-making process. Their insights can offer fresh insights and help you identify blind spots or biases that may influence your judgments. By incorporating diverse viewpoints into your reflective practice, you can further refine your intuitive abilities and make more informed decisions in the future. This collaborative approach fosters continuous growth and development in both personal and professional realms.

Memory can be fickle, especially when trying to recall big decisions you might have previously made. I recommend keeping a journal to track your thought process. Be sure to jot down the reasons behind your choices the steps you took to reach it. This record will be far more reliable than memory when you revisit this decision making process in the future and can be really helpful in avoiding repeat mistakes.

Continuous Learning: Reflect on Past Decisions: Regularly review past decisions to understand what worked and what didn’t. This can improve future decision-making. Stay Informed: Keep abreast of industry trends, new research, and best practices to inform your intuition.

Intuition is based on pattern recognition, If you haven’t read much in the area yet check out Blink from Malcolm Gladwell. Intuition is good for rapid and/ or low stakes decision making but unchecked by disconfirming data it where our biases and prejudices come from. A balanced approach might be: Do I have a strong opinion of what the solution is? 1. If yes, look for disconfirming data. If you can’t disconfirm, use data to help your stakeholders make their decision, but include your attempts to discondfirm 2. If no, then get advice and opinion from others then follow the same steps

A balanced approach of intuition and logic in risk management allows for a comprehensive assessment of both quantitative and qualitative factors. While logic provides structure and analysis, intuition enables the identification of subtle, non-obvious risks. Integrating both helps in making more informed decisions and developing effective risk mitigation strategies.

Balanced Approach: Combine Intuition with Analysis: Use intuition as a starting point but validate it with thorough analysis and evidence. Check Assumptions: Regularly question and validate the assumptions underlying your intuitive decisions.

Simulation is one thing, which can help to check the decisions based on intuitions where we can project the outcome , since at first place if we are taking decision on intuitions based outcome, then it's already obvious that the data and analysis is not available or may be we don't have that expertise or time or resources for analysis. While , when I say simulation, we can atleast go for an approach where we can anticipate the step by step 🪜 impact of the actions and try to avert any non desirable outcome afterwards

Intuition alike compass strengthens over time while it’s an important sounding board, it however is founded only on our sum of past experiences.Relying solely on one perspective hence may be myopic,complementing it with perspectives of not only others but backing it with data to integrate insights and inputs across diverse parameters & across timelines,allows for recognising variables,usage of erstwhile data,trends and patterns to both predict & test multiple hypothesis as well as mitigate risks of blind spots and biases and prepare to address varied outcomes.This blended approach not only enhances our decision making lens but also allows to pivot in dynamic scenarios.

Use Technology: Decision Support Systems: Implement technology and software that assist in data analysis and decision-making. Artificial Intelligence: Utilize AI and machine learning to provide insights and recommendations based on large data sets. Continuous Learning: Reflect on Past Decisions: Regularly review past decisions to understand what worked and what didn’t. This can improve future decision-making. Stay Informed: Keep abreast of industry trends, new research, and best practices to inform your intuition.

Un cadre de définition des objectifs est une approche structurée utilisée pour définir, planifier et atteindre des objectifs dans des contextes personnels et professionnels. Ces cadres fournissent une méthode pour fixer des objectifs clairs, réalisables et mesurables, augmentant ainsi les chances de les atteindre.