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February 2023

The coming reset in mid-to-late stage startups in 2023-2024 is at this point likely largely decoupled from interest rates and inflation. Implications…
Are early SaaS or AI companies ever defensible early? What is the basis for competition for a startup?
What does the future market structure look like for AI foundation and API companies? How does OSS play a role in a world of ever scaling models?
Figma, AI, Design, & Education

January 2023

Notion was kind enough to host a fireside chat between myself and Reid Hoffman on AI. Transcript and video link below.

November 2022

Startups are hard. For the first few years of a company, forward momentum is largely due to founders pushing every day. The weight of the company rests…
Changing economic markets suggests a shift in how some companies should operate, as well as what risks to assume for 2023

October 2022

In each technology wave the value, revenue, market cap, profits and great people captured by startups versus incumbents differs. In some waves it all…
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Prior to COVID, there were only 3 companies in tech that reached any real scale as remote first companies - Automattic, Gitlab, and Zapier [1]. During…

August 2022

NLP & AI Revolution - Transformers and Large Language Models (LLMs) Part of the challenge of “AI” is we keep raising the bar on what it means for…

July 2022

About a month ago, I wrote a tweet storm on the changing startup financing and employment environment. This blog captures aspects of that tweet storm…

April 2022

With Elon Musk joining the board of Twitter, now is a good time to consider all the things Twitter should be doing, that it has never done. There are…

October 2021

Every 8-10 years, the technology industry used to go through a boom and bust cycle. A new technology or platform would emerge, there would be rampant…

September 2021

One of the interesting aspects of the Theranos trial is the degree to which some folks are buying into part of the defense's narrative that "Theranos…

June 2021

I have previously written about Unicorn Market Cap and Industry towns in 2019 and 2020. Over the last 8 months the number of tech startups worth $1B or…
The last year has demonstrated repeatedly the lack of societal preparation for multiple forms of threats to our country and world. Examples of this…

February 2021

When your company is scaling rapidly due to product market fit, one of the biggest impediments (or boosters) to growth will turn out to be the…
When your company hits strong product market fit, your company will be sucked into a vortex of customer demand and experience a Cambrian explosion of…

January 2021

This post is the first in a small series on the new wave of hyperinteresting consumer tech products that are most likely to have had society-level…
This post is the first in a small series on the new wave of hyperinteresting consumer tech products that are most likely to have had society-level…
Israel has pulled ahead of much in the world in its rate of vaccinating its citizens - with roughly 1% of the entire population vaccinated per day and…

December 2020

Sometimes there are markets that are clearly going to grow massively over time. For example, ecommerce, genomics, crypto are all markets which were…