2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election

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2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election

← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
  Tim Walz official photo (cropped 2).jpg Minnesota State Senator Scott Jensen.jpg
Nominee Tim Walz Scott Jensen
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Running mate Peggy Flanagan Matt Birk
Popular vote 1,311,607 1,119,181
Percentage 52.3% 44.6%

2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
Walz:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Jensen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

Governor before election

Tim Walz
Minnesota DFL

Elected Governor

Tim Walz
Minnesota DFL

The 2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Tim Walz defeated the Republican nominee, former state senator Scott Jensen,[1] winning a second term.[2]

The primary elections were held on August 9, 2022.[3]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Walz
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%
Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic (DFL) Tim Walz (incumbent) 416,973 96.54%
Democratic (DFL) Ole Savior 14,950 3.46%
Total votes 431,923 100.0%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrawn[edit]

Declined[edit]

Caucuses and conventions[edit]

Caucus[edit]

The caucuses took place on February 1, 2022, statewide. A caucus is a local meeting where all who intend to vote for the Republican Party are able to select their precinct leadership, participate in a straw poll for Governor, write and pass resolutions, and elect delegates to their local Basic Political Organizational Unit (BPOU). Those who were not elected as BPOU delegates could become alternates and fill in for delegates who cannot attend the BPOU convention.[37]

BPOU conventions[edit]

A BPOU has boundaries that are based on the County or State Senate District an individual resides in. The majority of these took place in March 2022. Elected delegates of each BPOU attended a convention relating to their district to vote on the resolutions passed at the caucus, complete party business, listen to candidates, and elect delegates for the State Convention and their corresponding U.S. House District convention.

State convention[edit]

The Republican State Convention was held on May 13–14, 2022 in Rochester. 2,200 delegates were elected statewide to decide the endorsement of the Minnesota Republican Party all statewide offices. The endorsed candidate receives the backing of the Minnesota Republican Party, including money and resources, ahead of the August 9 primary.[38] Only one Republican, incumbent Governor Arne Carlson in 1994, has won the primary without the party convention endorsement. (Two Democrats, Mark Dayton and Tim Walz, won the Democratic primary against endorsed candidates.)[39]

At the convention, Scott Jensen won the endorsement with 65 percent of the vote on the ninth ballot, defeating Kendall Qualls. Mike Murphy, Paul Gazelka, and Neil Shah were all eliminated on earlier ballots. All of the candidates who contested the endorsement pledged to forego the primary if not endorsed.[39]

Qualls soon honored his pledge by announcing his plans to "return to private life."[40] Rich Stanek, the only major candidate who did not compete for the endorsement, did not file for the primary, leaving Jensen without major opposition.[23] He faces two minor candidates in the August primary.

Endorsements[edit]

Scott Jensen
State legislators
Newspapers
  • Winsted Herald-Journal[43]
  • Delano Herald-Journal[43]
  • Dassel-Cokato Enterprise Dispatch[43]
Organizations
  • Stand for Health Freedom[44]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
  Jensen
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Jensen 288,499 89.31%
Republican Joyce Lynne Lacey 21,308 6.60%
Republican Bob "Again" Carney Jr. 13,213 4.09%
Total votes 323,020 100.0%

Independents and others[edit]

Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]
  • Steve Patterson, anti-lockdown activist[6]
    • Matt Huff
Eliminated in primary[edit]
  • Darrell Paulsen, business consultant, nominee for lieutenant governor in 1998[6]
    • Edwin Engelmann, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2010

Results[edit]

Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Grassroots—LC Steve Patterson 1,003 59.14%
Grassroots—LC Darrell Paulsen 693 40.86%
Total votes 1,696 100.0%

Legal Marijuana Now primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominee[edit]
Eliminated in primary[edit]

Results[edit]

Legal Marijuana Now primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Legal Marijuana Now James McCaskel 1,461 51.86%
Legal Marijuana Now Chris Wright 1,356 48.14%
Total votes 2,817 100.0%

Other parties[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Cory Hepola (withdrew)
Organizations

General election[edit]

Campaign[edit]

The central issues of this election were the economy, rising crime, Walz’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, education, and abortion access following the Supreme Court decision in overturning Roe v. Wade.

Walz campaigned on his first-term accomplishments, such as middle class tax cuts, while making abortion rights a prominent focus of the campaign, and attacking Jensen on abortion and his COVID-19 skepticism. Jensen attacked Walz throughout the campaign; over his COVID-19 policies, crime in the Twin Cities, inflation and gas prices, and education performance.[55]

Jensen was criticized for promoting the hoax that schools provided litter boxes to students that identified as furries.[56]

Debates[edit]

2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican DFL
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Scott Jensen Tim Walz
1 Aug. 3, 2022 Minnesota Farmfest [57] P P
2 Oct. 18, 2022 KTTC/Gray Television [58] P P
3 Oct. 23, 2022 KSTP/Hubbard Broadcasting [59] P A
4 Oct. 28, 2022 Minnesota Public Radio[60] Mike Mulcahy [1] P P
3 Nov. 4, 2022 Twin Cities PBS - Almanac [61] P A

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Likely D March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[63] Lean D November 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[64] Likely D October 12, 2022
Politico[65] Lean D April 1, 2022
RCP[66] Tossup June 10, 2022
Fox News[67] Lean D May 12, 2022
538[68] Likely D October 17, 2022

Endorsements[edit]

Scott Jensen (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
State legislators
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Scott
Jensen (R)
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics Oct. 10 – Oct. 30, 2022 Nov. 1, 2022 48.0% 43.7% 8.3% Walz +4.3
FiveThirtyEight Sep. 24 – Oct. 30, 2022 Nov. 4, 2022 49.7% 40.9% 9.4% Walz +8.8
Average 48.9% 42.3% 8.8% Walz +6.6
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Scott
Jensen (R)
Hugh
McTavish (I-A)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[A] Oct. 26 – 30, 2022 836 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 43% 2% 4%
St. Cloud State University Oct. 10 – 30, 2022 235 (A) ± 8% 56% 40% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R) Oct. 17 – 19, 2022 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 45.8% 46.3% 1.4% 2.5%[c] 3.9%
Embold Research[B] Oct. 10 – 14, 2022 1,585 (LV) ± 2.6% 47.0% 42.4% 1.3% 3.3%[d] 6.0%
SurveyUSA Sep. 30 – Oct. 3, 2022 604 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 4% 7%
Cygnal (R)[C] Sep. 24 – 26, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47.6% 44.2% 0.4% 3.0%[e] 4.8%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep. 14, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 47.7% 45.0% 0.8% 1.7%[f] 4.9%
Mason-Dixon Sep. 12 – 14, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48.0% 41.0% 0.8% 10.3%
SurveyUSA Aug. 30 – Sep. 4, 2022 562 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 33% 4% 12%
Gravis Marketing (I-A)[D] Aug. 17 – 19, 2022 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 53% 36% 6% 5%
Cygnal (R)[C] Jul. 18 – 19, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 49.8% 45.6% 4.7%
Change Research[B] Jun. 3 – 8, 2022 1,551 (LV) ± 2.6% 41.8% 39.8% 2.7% 6.6%[g] 9.0%
SurveyUSA May 5 – 10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 39% 4% 13%
SurveyUSA Jan. 25 – 30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 43% 40% 4% 13%
SurveyUSA Dec. 2 – 6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 36% 5% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Tim Walz vs. Michelle Benson
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Michelle
Benson (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 37% 8% 10%
SurveyUSA December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 35% 4% 14%
Tim Walz vs. Paul Gazelka
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Paul
Gazelka (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 36% 7% 15%
SurveyUSA January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 42% 37% 6% 15%
SurveyUSA December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 34% 5% 14%
Tim Walz vs. Mike Marti
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Mike
Marti (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 34% 3% 15%
Tim Walz vs. Mike Murphy
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Mike
Murphy (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 35% 4% 15%
SurveyUSA January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 44% 35% 7% 14%
SurveyUSA December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 47% 36% 5% 12%
Tim Walz vs. Kendall Qualls
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Kendall
Qualls (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 34% 4% 15%
SurveyUSA January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 43% 35% 6% 16%
Tim Walz vs. Neil Shah
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Neil
Shah (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 34% 6% 16%
SurveyUSA January 25–30, 2022 501 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 34% 7% 14%
SurveyUSA December 2–6, 2021 506 (LV) ± 5.1% 48% 31% 5% 16%
Tim Walz vs. Rich Stanek
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Rich
Stanek (R)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA May 5–10, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 37% 5% 11%
Tim Walz vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Change Research August 28–31, 2021 1,945 (RV) ± 2.5% 46% 44% 10%

Results[edit]

2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL)
1,311,607 52.27% -1.57%
Republican 1,119,181 44.60% +2.17%
Legal Marijuana Now
  • James McCaskel
  • David Sandbeck
29,425 1.17% N/A
Grassroots—LC
  • Steve Patterson
  • Matt Huff
22,647 0.90% -1.75%
Independence
  • Hugh McTavish
  • Mike Winter
18,171 0.72% N/A
Socialist Workers
  • Gabrielle Prosser
  • Kevin Dwire
7,260 0.29% N/A
Write-in 1,052 0.04% 0.00%
Total votes 2,509,343

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ McCaskel with 1.2%, Patterson with 0.9%, and Prosser with 0.4%
  4. ^ McCaskel (LMN) with 1.4%, Prosser (SW) with 1.0%, and Patterson (GLC) with 0.9%
  5. ^ McCaskel (LMN) with 1.2%, Prosser (SW) with 1.2%, and Patterson (GLC) with 0.6%
  6. ^ McCaskel with 1.4%, Patterson with 0.2%, and Prosser with 0.1%
  7. ^ "The candidate from either one of the legalize marijuana parties (Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots Legalize Cannabis)"
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by KSTP-TV
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by MinnPost
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Jensen's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by McTavish's campaign

References[edit]

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  4. ^ "Preparing For Re-Election Push, Walz Campaign Announces It's Hiring Staff, Breaking Fundraising Records". WCCO-TV. 2020-02-02. Retrieved 2020-06-28.
  5. ^ a b "Gov. Walz makes it official: He's running for a second term". MPR News.
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  7. ^ "olesavior.org". Retrieved 10 Jun 2022.
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  9. ^ Croman, John (2020-05-14). "Jensen wins GOP endorsement for Minnesota governor". Kare11. Retrieved 2020-05-14. All had pledged to honor the party’s endorsement and forego the right to run in the Aug. 9 GOP primary, assuming there was no deadlock.
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  11. ^ "Vote Bob Again". Retrieved 10 Jun 2022.
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  18. ^ "Mike Marti to Suspend Campaign for Governor". Facebook.com. Mike Marti. 13 December 2021. Retrieved 13 December 2021. Thank you to everyone who has supported our campaign. While I have enjoyed campaigning across our beautiful state and getting to know so many of the delegates, I feel it is best at this time to suspend my campaign for Governor.
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  22. ^ "Former Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek Running For Governor". 2022-02-01. Retrieved 2022-02-01.
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  25. ^ Jensen, Scott [@drscottjensen] (April 25, 2021). "We're so honored to have Vikings legend and Super Bowl Champion @BirkMatt and Adrianna Birk join our growing team! They will become our campaign chairs and help us shape education in Minnesota. We couldn't be more thrilled! JOIN our WINNING Team: t.co/lgi6f9NIVp #MNGov t.co/OdWUvp3ZkM" (Tweet). Archived from the original on April 25, 2021. Retrieved May 18, 2021 – via Twitter.
  26. ^ "Join Matt Birk and Dr. Scott Jensen!".
  27. ^ Stephen Montemayor (January 3, 2021). "GOP field for 2022 Minnesota governor's race already taking shape". StarTribune.
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  34. ^ @KarinHousley. "I'm excited to run for re-election!". Twitter. Retrieved 2022-03-08.
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  36. ^ "Home". Rob Barrett, Jr.
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  41. ^ a b "'Time to turn the page': Rep. John Thompson says he plans to stay in office as an Independent after DFL oust". kare11.com. Kare 11 News. 15 September 2021. Retrieved 16 February 2022.
  42. ^ a b Kyle Hooten (22 December 2021). "Jensen defends campaign appearance with John Thompson, hits back at Gazelka". alphanews.org. Alpha News. Retrieved 16 February 2022. Last week, Jensen invited Thompson to the front of the room during a campaign stop, where he remained for the duration of the event, eliciting criticism from some conservatives. Jensen stands by this decision and has fired shots back at Gazelka for criticizing him.
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  44. ^ a b "Dr. Scott Jensen for Minnesota Governor | Stand For Health Freedom". November 17, 2021.
  45. ^ Dryden, Dené (September 8, 2021). "Sen. Gazelka Stops in St. Cloud Hours After Announcing Gubernatorial Campaign". KNSI. Archived from the original on September 9, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
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  47. ^ Uren, Adam. "Andrew Yang-backed Cory Hepola abandons gubernatorial bid". Bring Me The News. Retrieved 2022-05-31.
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  52. ^ Painter, Richard [@RWPUSA] (March 15, 2021). "Minnesota's government has been corrupted by money. Sulfide mining companies want to destroy the Lake Superior watershed and Boundary Waters. @Tim_Walz won't stop them. That's why I'm exploring an independent reform ticket run for governor. We're fed up! t.co/GJ5bEtPiNJ" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 15, 2021. Retrieved May 18, 2021 – via Twitter.
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  72. ^ https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/minnesota/sen-smith-medical-professionals-say-governors-race-will-determine-future-of-health-care-for-women
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  74. ^ https://www.startribune.com/former-minnesota-gov-jesse-ventura-endorses-gov-walz-citing-strong-leadership-covid-protections/600219558/
  75. ^ a b "Governor Walz and Lt. Governor Flanagan Release 2022 Legislative Endorsements". www.redlakenationnews.com. September 26, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  76. ^ https://www.startribune.com/star-tribune-editorial-board-endorsement-re-elect-tim-walz-for-steady-leadership/600220285/
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  78. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m "Tim Walz's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  79. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Governor Tim Walz and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign.
  80. ^ "Minnesota Medical Association - MEDPAC Endorses Walz for Governor". www.mnmed.org.
  81. ^ "Nurses endorse candidates who will put Patients Before Profits in statewide executive races". mnnurses.org. July 21, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  82. ^ "IUOE Local 49 Endorses Walz for Reelection". local49.org. September 1, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  83. ^ "Political Endorsements — Inter Faculty Organization". www.ifo.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  84. ^ "Donald Trump endorses Scott Jensen for Minnesota governor". www.duluthnewstribune.com. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  85. ^ https://kroxam.com/2022/11/01/lt-governor-candidate-matt-birk-visits-crookston-municipal-airport-on-heal-minnesota-plane-tour/
  86. ^ Hanley, Ashley. "National political group bringing Iowa Governor Reynolds to MN to campaign for Jensen". KTOE AM 1420 - 102.7 FM. Retrieved 27 October 2022.
  87. ^ "Endorsement: Minnesota should hire Dr. Scott Jensen for next governor". Rochester Post Bulletin. October 22, 2022.
  88. ^ "NFIB MN PAC Endorses Dr. Scott Jensen for Minnesota Governor". National Federation of Independent Business. September 13, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  89. ^ "Scott Jensen's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  90. ^ "Dr. Scott Jensen wins GOP endorsement for Minnesota governor". Associated Press. May 14, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.
  91. ^ "Walz discusses higher education Thursday, Jensen endorsed by Minn. Police & Peace Officers Association". kstp.com. October 6, 2022. Retrieved October 26, 2022.

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites