Northern Nigeria mortality adjustment [June 2021] (public)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I
1
2	All-cause mortality
3		Katsina	Zamfara	Jigawa	3 NW States Average	Nigeria	Ratio	Why this test?	Bottom line
4	Under-5 mortality per 1,000 live births	141.1	162.0	166.3	156.47	103.2	1.52	This is a gut check. How much higher is all-cause mortality in 3 NW states vs. Nigeria as a whole? Some of this gap will be explained by higher vaccination rates in other parts of Nigeria, so this should be an upper bound.	Under 5 mortality is ~50% higher in 3 NW states where New Incentives operates vs. Nigeria as a whole.
5
6
7	Diarrhea mortality
8		Katsina	Zamfara	Jigawa	3 NW States Average	Nigeria	Ratio	Why this test?	Bottom line
9	Under-5 diarrhea mortality per 1,000 people	33.5001	38.3623	38.4648	36.78	27.0106	1.36	This provides a fairly clean test of differences in mortality, controlling for differences in vaccination. That's because rotavirus vaccine was not available at the time of these data.	Deaths due to diarrhea are ~40% higher in 3 NW states where New Incentives operates vs. Nigeria as a whole.
10
11	Lower respiratory infection mortality
12		Katsina	Zamfara	Jigawa	3 NW States Average	Nigeria	Ratio	Why this test?	Bottom line
13	Under-5 lower respiratory infection (LRTI) mortality per 1,000 people	4.33167	4.17655	4.85517	4.45	3.8615	1.15	Since IHME also provides subnational data on lower respiratory infection and vaccination coverage, we can still get a good test here. We account for deaths among unvaccinated and vaccinated in the same way as the main CEA to compare deaths among unvaccinated infants in the 3 NW states vs. Nigeria as a whole.	Deaths due to PCV are ~3% higher in 3 NW states where New Incentives operates vs. Nigeria as a whole, though this is based on some assumptions regarding vaccination rates and vaccine coverage.
14	% SP	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	0.50	1.00
15	SP LRTI	2.18	2.11	2.45	2.25	1.95	1.15
16	PCV1 coverage, 2016	22.7	12.8	18	17.83	48.8	0.37
17	PCV3 coverage, 2016	15.1	8.8	9.4	11.10	37.5	0.30
18	Weighted PCV coverage	0.2042	0.116	0.1542	0.16	0.4541	0.35
19	Adjustment for no coverage before 2015	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.55	1.00
20	Weighted PCV coverage, adjusted	0.11231	0.0638	0.08481	0.09	0.249755	0.35
21	PCV efficacy	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.58	1.00
22	Adjustments	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.10	1.1	1.00
23	PCV efficacy, with adjustments	0.64	0.64	0.64	0.64	0.64	1.00
24	PCV RR, with adjustments	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	0.36	1.00
25	SP LRTI unvaccinated	2.35	2.19	2.59	2.38	2.32	1.03
26	Check	2.18	2.11	2.45		1.95
27	Check	All good	All good	All good		All good
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100