October 2019 | Open Philanthropy
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.base.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.menus.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.messages.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.theme.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/jquery_update/replace/ui/themes/base/minified/jquery.ui.core.min.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/jquery_update/replace/ui/themes/base/minified/jquery.ui.theme.min.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/jquery_update/replace/ui/themes/base/minified/jquery.ui.accordion.min.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/comment_notify/comment_notify.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/comment/comment.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/date/date_api/date.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/date/date_popup/themes/datepicker.1.7.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/field/theme/field.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/footnotes/footnotes.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/custom/grants_summary/grants_summary.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/node/node.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/search/search.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/user/user.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/views/css/views.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/caption_filter/caption-filter.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/ckeditor/css/ckeditor.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/ctools/css/ctools.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/typogrify/typogrify.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/content_type_extras/css/content_type_extras.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/normalize.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/op-fonts.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/html.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/meanmenu.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/global.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/pages/pages.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/pages/custom.css?qgstca");
@import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20200926182343cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/admin.css?qgstca");
Jump to Navigation
Research & IdeasCause Selection
Notable Lessons
Cause Reports
Conversations
History of Philanthropy
Focus AreasU.S. Policy
Criminal Justice Reform
Farm Animal Welfare
Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy
Immigration Policy
Land Use Reform
Global Catastrophic Risks
Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness
Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence
Scientific Research
Global Health & Development
Other areas
GivingGrants Database
Current Priorities
Guide for Grant Seekers
Grantmaking Stages
About UsWho We Are
Vision & Values
Openness
Progress to Date
Team
Press Kit
Blog
Get InvolvedContact Us
Stay Updated
Working at Open Phil
Search form
Search
Home /
Blog /
Archive
October 2019
How Feasible Is Long-range Forecasting?
by Luke Muehlhauser Published October 10, 2019
How accurate do long-range (≥10yr) forecasts tend to be, and how much should we rely on them?
As an initial exploration of this question, I sought to study the track record of long-range forecasting exercises from the past. Unfortunately, my key finding so far is that it is difficult to learn much of value from those exercises, for the following reasons: [node:read-more:link]
Luke Muehlhauser's blog
3 comments
Add new comment
Stay Updated
Email me new blog posts
Blog RSS feed
More information
Recent blog posts
New Report on How Much Computational Power It Takes to Match the Human Brain
Modeling the Human Trajectory
Our Progress in 2019 and Plans for 2020
New Staff in Communications, Grants, Operations, Programs, and Research (2020)
Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic
Archives