Joel Hellewell

@HellewellJoel

Infectious Disease Modeller at All views my own.

London
Gått med maj 2020
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  1. för 6 timmar sedan

    As epidemiologists we should help people that want to protest to minimise the risks they face, rather than lecturing people who are feeling great anger and pain about social distancing, which has already been sabotaged in the name of profit. We should aid the fight for justice.

    6 retweets 38 gillanden
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  2. för 6 timmar sedan

    Put plainly, you are financially compelled to be exposed to infection to make profits for someone else, but you are not permitted to expose yourself to infection to protest the fact that the police can and frequently do murder people with no repercussions

    1 svara 34 retweets 71 gillanden
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  3. för 6 timmar sedan

    Will the protests affect R? The thing is, social distancing in the UK is already undermined to a large extent. People have been sent back to work, children have been sent back to school. These have a delayed impact that we are beginning to observe now: R is rising towards 1.

    1 svara 10 retweets 20 gillanden
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  4. för 6 timmar sedan

    The systemic racism that the BLM movement is seeking is to end causes profound (and frequently lethal) material harm to black people + communities in the UK, US, and around the world. Previous progress has been achieved through organised, sustained direct action including marches

    1 svara 4 retweets 17 gillanden
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  5. för 6 timmar sedan

    As an epidemiologist working on , do I support the protests? Short answer: yes (resources on how to minimise risk to yourself and others: ) Long answer:

    This google folder has advice on protesting from home and protesting safely in the streets during a pandemic. It's going to be constantly updated. Comment with anything u think should be added (eg. info, graphics, links 2 volunteer/donate)
    5 svar 152 retweets 217 gillanden
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  6. Retweetade
    5 juni

    1. Many people have asked me whether the ongoing Black Lives Matter protests around the country pose a risk of increasing coronavirus spread. As a scientist, I acknowledge that they may. As a citizen, I wholeheartedly support the protests nonetheless.

    388 svar 1 372 retweets 6 210 gillanden
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  7. 5 juni

    Amazing that Andy Burnham is sharing work that I'm involved in. Horrible that said work is saying that we are sliding back over the cliff edge. Guess I know how climate scientists feel all the time now...

    Here’s the new table alongside last week’s for comparison. ⬆️ East Mids, London, South West, Wales, Yorkshire ➡️ East, North East, North West, Scotland, South East, West Mids ⬇️ Northern Ireland My thanks to . 2/2
    1 svara 2 retweets 13 gillanden
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  8. 5 juni

    The crisis is just business as usual for capitalists with markets to open up

    A leaked email from the chief executive of Serco, tasked with contact tracing, revealed he doubted the scheme would evolve smoothly, but said he wanted it to “cement the position of the private sector” in the NHS supply chain
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  9. 5 juni

    Good thread on the difference between serial and generation intervals. Lessons to be carried forward! 👇😮

    Generation and serial intervals are key, but different, quantities in epidemic modeling. We explain their differences in our new manuscript. Joint work w/ David Earn Bryan Grenfell 1/n
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  10. Retweetade
    3 juni

    Where is justice for Belly Mujinga?

    A man who spat at a police officer and "joked" about coronavirus has been jailed for 12 months
    4 svar 307 retweets 779 gillanden
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  11. 3 juni

    You can easily judge the sincerity of calls to stop protesting for due to the need for social distancing on the basis of whether that person said anything when manual workers were forced back to work

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  12. 1 juni

    Work by:

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  13. 1 juni

    The methods behind our time-varying R estimates website are now up on and awaiting peer review! Paper: Site:

    3 svar 42 retweets 74 gillanden
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  14. Retweetade
    30 maj

    Racist violence and police murder are inherent to capitalism. It will be around until we get rid of capitalism. Knowing this is also key to finding short term ways that we can collectively get some semblance of more immediate reprisal 4 these injustices Follow me for a second

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  15. Retweetade
    31 maj

    I understand the concern about an escalating R rate, but not appreciating the tone of judgement against those who have gone out to protest. The fact black people have had to leave their homes during a global pandemic to protest is an injustice in itself

    4 svar 415 retweets 1 203 gillanden
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  16. 31 maj

    Seeing as lots of people are starting to read this, I should add that I don't think this is an irredeemable approach or bit of work. I'd be interested in spending more time looking at the direct causal modelling approach one day in the future when I have spare time.

    1 svara 3 retweets 12 gillanden
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  17. 31 maj

    It's not ideal that the resistant population parameter was added to make the model fit data properly and was justified post-hoc with a bunch of phenomena that we do not have any idea whether they exist to any meaningful extent.

    5 svar 5 retweets 13 gillanden
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  18. 31 maj

    Realistically what proportion of the UK is completely socially isolated and makes no contact with the outside world? Until immunological data emerges on the potential for cross immunity and it's prevalence in the UK population, how much do we rely on the inferred resistant pop?

    1 svara 3 retweets 9 gillanden
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  19. 31 maj

    That nearly 4 in 10 people in the UK wont play any part in the outbreak is a huge claim. That we don't have to worry about an immediate second wave, based on the inferred existence of such a population is pretty risky.

    1 svara 6 retweets 18 gillanden
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  20. 31 maj

    Theoretically this is fair enough, these factors may well exist to some extent. But the resistant populations estimated by the model are: 38% in the UK, 58% in Germany, ~30% in US states. These huge resistant populations play a large role in the claim of no second wave.

    1 svara 5 retweets 11 gillanden
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