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Credit to Hamish Gibbs for all his great work on these visualisations.
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Colocation isn't quite the same as mobility, as it gives a rough measure of proximity, so could provide a useful additional/alternative metric for evaluating local changes in behaviour.
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Inspired by
@lewis_math's useful analysis for Australia (http://maths.adelaide.edu.au/lewis.mitchell/socialdistancing/ …) we've put together a dashboard visualising changes in (aggregated) Facebook colocation data over time in UK: https://cmmid.github.io/colocation_dashboard_cmmid/ …pic.twitter.com/x9uh1dXuPM
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Adam Kucharski Retweeted
We need a mix of linked up strategies. App based tracing can have an effect, as well as manual tracing, as well as continued social distancing. Another way to look at uptake: if you, your friends and colleagues use the app, then between you you have an early warning system.
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Adam Kucharski Retweeted
A very important evaluation of where we are in the pandemic from the indispensable
@edyong209 https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/ …pic.twitter.com/ZpV8LMPPRW
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Adam Kucharski Retweeted
I just gave a talk reviewing phylodynamics of
#SARSCoV2 for the@NewtonInstitute meeting on pandemic modeling. Slides here: https://sdwfrost.github.io/idp-phylodynamics/ …Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Thanks to
@BishopBlougram for the linkShow this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Update: new serological data suggests around 7% of Stockholm had been infected by early/mid April: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/ …https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1254084767496261632 …
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There's still a lot to understand about local effectiveness of specific control measures. But if we don't look at the complete picture, there's a risk of attributing all the reduction in transmission to a single measure - and possibly not the one that actually had most effect 2/2
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A reminder that most countries have introduced a broad combination of COVID measures. Rather than just saying "place X did/didn't lockdown", we should ask which closed schools/workplaces/shops/restaurants, or had active case finding/tracing/quarantine/masks/travel restrictions 1/
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As countries start to relax COVID control measures, I think it's useful to keep following picture in mind. We are not at the end of this pandemic, and there are still a wide range of possible global outcomes over the coming months (credit to
@jburnmurdoch@FT for original plot)pic.twitter.com/J7qVDfsP1V
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Adam Kucharski Retweeted
As we re-open, we need discussion about epi triggers to change course and even lock down again. Most important: it should not be based on surging deaths, which are lagged by ~3 weeks compared to infections. It must be based on cases, which requires surveillance. 1/2
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Worth noting that our pre-print (spearheaded by
@_akiraendo with@seabbs@sbfnk) built on some very useful early work by@khgrantz@CJEMetcalf@JustinLessler – https://hopkinsidd.github.io/nCoV-Sandbox/DispersionExploration.html …https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1263078161748840449 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo -
Perhaps most remarkably, epidemiology and aeronautical engineering were effectively side projects - her main academic research was focused on pure maths, notably geometry: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=3117444465504600016&hl=en&as_sdt=2005&sciodt=0,5 … 8/8
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Yet because of the First World War, Hudson didn't publish any more work on epidemiology after those two papers. In 1917, she joined the Air Ministry to work on aircaft design - work for which she later got an OBE. 7/
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In turn, the research that followed would eventually give rise to the field infectious disease modelling. And the mathematical thresholds in those early models would evolve into a simpler metric for contagion - the reproduction number. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2014.0307 … 6/
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The work would later inspire Kermack and McKendrick to outline their landmark susceptible-infectious-recovered model in 1927 (https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118 …) 5/pic.twitter.com/ecZwmClFlS
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In 1916, Hudson worked on a pair of papers with Ronald Ross. These outlined mathematical models for 'laws of happenings' - an early attempt at establishing a theory of epidemic dynamics (https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.1917.0015 …) 4/pic.twitter.com/OwzBScA8ds
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She then studied maths at Cambridge where she got first class marks in 1903. At the time, women weren't allowed to get degrees, so - despite matching the male student who came 7th in the year - her performance wasn’t included in the official listing. 3/
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While researching my book, I learnt more about Hilda Hudson, who published her first research when she was aged 10 - in Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/045189a0 … 2/
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