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New Working Papers Studying
the COVID-19 Pandemic


Ten new NBER working papers distributed this week provide new data on, or analysis of, the health and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The studies discuss the labor market impact of the pandemic (27017), the effect of shelter-in-place policies on virus transmission rates (26992), how political beliefs are correlated with place-specific differences in social distancing practices (27008), tradeoffs and feedback relationships between virus spread and economic activity (27009 and 27020), the differential impact of stay-at-home orders on the happiness of single and married people (27018), heterogeneity in testing patterns across socio-economic groups, (27019), and the role of subway ridership in virus transmission in New York City (27021).

Other studies offer new insights on measurement and modeling of the pandemic, highlighting the challenges of estimating the total number of COVID-19 cases (27023) and the uncertainties associated with both the choice and calibration of epidemic models (27007).

NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes; they have not been peer-reviewed. The papers mentioned above, other recent NBER studies of the impact of coronavirus containment efforts, as well as several earlier studies of the economic and other consequences of pandemics, are available here.



The NBER Digest

Quality of Sleep Is More Important Than Quantity
When It Comes to Improving Productivity and Well-Being




In a field experiment in India, increasing the quantity of sleep workers get in uncomfortable home environments has little effect, but encouraging high-quality naps at work shows results, according to research featured in the latest edition of The NBER Digest. Also in this issue of the free monthly Digest are summaries of studies examining the effect of prize structure on an innovation competition, and consumer valuation of product licensing, and reasons the euro has not gone international, and the effectiveness of advance market commitments, and market design in H-1B visa allocation.
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Bulletin on Health

Medicare Eligibility Reduces Cancer Mortality for Women




The spring issue of the Bulletin on Health features a study examining the impact of Medicare eligibility at age 65 on cancer detection and outcomes. The researchers show that cancer detection shifts sharply upward at the age of Medicare eligibility, while cancer mortality shifts downward with Medicare eligibility. The effects are concentrated among women, especially among racial minorities. Also featured in this issue of the free Bulletin on Health are: a study of how a diabetes diagnosis affects subsequent health care and health outcomes, a study of how an informational letter about the tax penalty for lacking health insurance affected insurance coverage and mortality, and a profile of NBER research associate Adriana Lleras-Muney.
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New NBER Research

23 April 2020

Medicaid and Children with Special Health Care Needs

Raising the Medicaid primary care fee to within 90 percent of the Medicare level increases the likelihood that publicly insured children with special health care needs will have usual care in a doctor’s office by about 15 percent and is associated with improved access to specialty care, Pinka Chatterji, Sandra Decker, and Jason U. Huh calculate.

22 April 2020

Analyzing Police Use of Force by Race

Data from two cities suggest that white officers use force 60 percent more than black officers, use gun force twice as often, and are five times as likely as black officers to use gun force in predominantly black neighborhoods, Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan find.

21 April 2020

Private School Choice, Public School Students

Massive expansion of Florida’s private school choice program produced modestly higher standardized test scores and lower absenteeism and suspension rates for students attending public schools that had a larger initial degree of private school options, David N. Figlio, Cassandra M.D. Hart, and Krzysztof Karbownik find.
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Due to the coronavirus situation, all in-person NBER meetings scheduled for April and May 2020 have been canceled.

The NBER Reporter

Public Economics Program Report Focuses
on Take-Up and Impacts of Government Interventions




Public economics is the study of government intervention in the market economy, designed to move outcomes away from the market equilibrium. In the new issue of the NBER Reporter, the directors of the NBER’s Public Economics Program describe efforts by the program’s affiliated researchers to identify factors that determine take-up of government initiatives and the impacts of those initiatives on behavior and economic outcomes. Recent work has uncovered evidence of the importance of barriers to take-up in general and how those barriers may vary. Also in this edition of the free, quarterly Reporter, NBER researchers write about their investigations of the profound effects of rare events like pandemics, the impact of land systems and misallocation on agricultural productivity, the role of the firm in explaining the structure and evolution of wages and worker risk, and the benefits of rehabilitative incarceration of criminals.
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NBER in the News




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Bulletin on Retirement and Disability

What Drives Prescription Opioid Abuse?




While the magnitude of the US opioid crisis is fairly well understood, its causes are less well established. This issue is the topic of study of a paper summarized in the current issue of the free Bulletin on Retirement and Disability. The research finds that opioid abuse jumps shortly after a move and remains at the new higher level for up to five years after the move, suggesting that place-specific factors may explain about one-fourth of opioid abuse. Also featured in this issue: a summary of research on how perception of pain differs by education level, an exploration of trends in work and disability application among people with mental illness, and a joint Q&A; with NBER research associates Richard Frank and Ellen Meara, both of Harvard University.
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