A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | ||
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1 | Summary (more detail to the right) | Likelihood and magnitude of potential catastrophe | Possible philanthropic interventions (not already funded) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Cause | Priority | Goal | Link | More public content planned at the moment? | Overall informal assessment of risk level (relative) | Overall informal assessment of philanthropic opportunities to further reduce risk | Need for a full-time specialist | Highest-damage scenario | Likelihood of highest-damage scenario over the next 100 years | Likelihood and magnitude of global catastrophe if highest-damage scenario takes place | High-damage scenario | Likelihood of high-damage scenario over the next 100 years | Likelihood and magnitude of global catastrophe if high-damage scenario takes place | ||||||||||||||||||
3 | Biosecurity | 1 | Make cause-specific hire | http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/biosecurity | More in-depth writeup forthcoming | High | Relatively strong opportunities | Very high | Synthetic pandemic (possibly optimized to maximize death toll) | Highly uncertain but quite plausible | Highly uncertain but very plausible | Natural pandemic | Very likely | Very likely (>50% for some major natural pandemic in next 100 years) | Many known (and expensive) preparations (e.g. disease surveillance, development and stockpile of countermeasures, improvement of preparatory plans and response capacity, and efforts (including regulation) to decrease the proliferation and increase the safety of risky emerging technology such as dual use research). Many gaps exist despite substantial government funding; philanthropy could fill gaps directly and/or aim to influence government funding. | |||||||||||||||||
4 | Geoengineering research & governance | 2 | Infrastructure-building grant(s), preferably major | http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/geoengineering | More in-depth writeup forthcoming | Medium-high | Possibly very strong opportunities (pending research on robustness of current system) | Medium | Major social or political instability (such as war) due to unilateral use of geoengineering or catastrophic effects of climate change | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible | Climatic impacts of either climate change or geoengineering | Very likely | Very likely (>50%) | Policy-oriented research on how best to govern decisions about research and deployment. Building capacity and developing governance infrastructure. Scientific research on the effects of potential deployment. Very little funding in this space currently. | |||||||||||||||||
5 | Geomagnetic storms | 2 | Determine need for, and potentially fund, research on electrical grid robustness | http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/geomagnetic-storms | Research report forthcoming | Medium-low | Relatively strong opportunities | Very low | Major social or political instability (such as war) following regional (~continent-level), sustained blackouts | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible | Major economic hit due to regional (continent-level), sustained blackouts | Highly uncertain but highly plausible | Highly uncertain but very plausible | Hardening electrical grid; operational mitigation (such as unplugging components in advance of a predicted storm); building spare transformers; research. | |||||||||||||||||
6 | Other cross-cutting work | 2 | Evaluate specific grant opportunities | - | Grant writeups forthcoming depending on grants | (Cross-cutting) | TBD | Low | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | N/A (different interventions will apply to different risks) | |||||||||||||||||
7 | Potential risks from artificial intelligence | 2 | Monitoring cause; unsure of crowdedness | - | Medium writeup forthcoming | High | Highly uncertain | Low | Extremely powerful artificial-intelligence agent with misaligned values | Highly uncertain but plausible | Highly uncertain but plausible | Use of extremely powerful artificial intelligence to disrupt geopolitics | Highly uncertain but quite plausible | Highly uncertain but very plausible | Room for more funding uncertain due to recent entry of major donor. See http://futureoflife.org/grants/large/initial for possible research agendas. | |||||||||||||||||
8 | Food security | 3 | More cause-level investigation | - | Shallow writeup forthcoming | Medium; highly uncertain and cross-cutting | Highly uncertain | Low | Global collapse of agriculture from extreme climate change, large volcanic eruption, nuclear winter, or other possibilities | Highly uncertain but somewhat plausible | Highly uncertain but plausible | Regional collapse of agriculture from extreme climate change, large volcanic eruption, nuclear winter, or other possibilities | Highly uncertain but quite plausible | Highly uncertain but very plausible | We have seen a proposed research agenda but so far have not found a consensus that it is promising. More attention to food stockpiling is also a possibility. | |||||||||||||||||
9 | Risks from nuclear weapons | 3 | Monitoring cause for outstanding opportunities | http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/nuclear-security | More detailed writeup forthcoming | Medium-high | Not many suitable remaining opportunities | High | Nuclear winter following war between major nuclear powers (U.S. and Russia are the plausible candidates today but proliferation or increased stockpiles could create additional candidates) | Highly uncertain but somewhat plausible | Highly uncertain but plausible | "Nuclear autumn" following war between moderate nuclear powers (such as contemporary Pakistan and India) | Highly uncertain but plausible | Highly uncertain but plausible | Policy development in countries other than the U.S. has little funding but would be very difficult. Some experts say policy advocacy and public engagement in the U.S. are underfunded. | |||||||||||||||||
10 | Anthropogenic climate change (other than geoengineering) | 4 | Not prioritized | http://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change | No | Medium-high | Not many suitable remaining opportunities | High | Major social or political instability (such as war) following disastrous climate change | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible | Major damage to global agriculture and/or refugees due to rising water levels | Relatively likely | Relatively likely (>20%) | R&D on clean tech, adaptation preparations, and working toward carbon pricing are all possibilities but all generally highly funded already. | |||||||||||||||||
11 | Large volcanic eruptions | 4 | Monitoring cause for outstanding opportunities | http://www.givewell.org/shallow/volcanoes | No | Low | Not many suitable remaining opportunities | Low but uncertain | Global collapse of agriculture following major eruption | Very unlikely but uncertain | Very unlikely, with moderate uncertainty | Major eruption cools atmosphere, interferes with travel and agriculture, may increase risk of conflict | Relatively likely | Relatively likely (>20%) | Have heard few ideas for interventions other than research or improved prediction. Very little funding currently. | |||||||||||||||||
12 | Atomically precise manufacturing | 4 | Not prioritized | - | Shallow writeup forthcoming | Medium | We are not aware of many suitable remaining opportunities, but it's possible some would exist if the area received more attention | N/A (not prioritized) | Nano-scale machines self-replicate to an extreme degree, leading to "grey goo" scenario | Very unlikely but somewhat uncertain | Very unlikely, with moderate uncertainty | Weaponized atomically precise manufacturing used in global war | Highly uncertain but plausible | Highly uncertain but plausible | We have not heard strong ideas for interventions focused specifically on mitigating risks. Highly uncertain how much better proposals could be if the area received more attention. | |||||||||||||||||
13 | Near-earth asteroids | 5 | Not prioritized | http://www.givewell.org/shallow/asteroid-detection | No | Low | Moderate opportunities | N/A (not prioritized) | Impact from object >10 km in diameter | Extremely unlikely | Extremely unlikely, with relatively high certainty | Impact from object >1km in diameter | Very unlikely | Very unlikely, with relatively high certainty | Tracking smaller asteroids, along the lines of http://sentinelmission.org/ . Largest asteroids already tracked. | |||||||||||||||||
14 | Antibiotic resistance | 5 | Not prioritized | http://www.givewell.org/shallow/antibiotic-resistance | No | Low | Relatively strong opportunities | N/A (not prioritized) | Complete failure of antibiotics | Highly uncertain but plausible | Highly uncertain but plausible | Failure of some antibiotics | Very likely | Very likely (>50%) | More R&D on future antibiotics, as well as attempts to prevent antibiotic overuse. There is already a reasonable amount of funding in this area, but could be room for more. | |||||||||||||||||
15 | Disaster shelters | 5 | Not prioritized | http://www.givewell.org/labs/causes/disaster-shelters | No | Medium-low; highly uncertain and cross-cutting | Not many suitable remaining opportunities | N/A (not prioritized) | Major (synthetic?) pandemic or other situation in which shelters are key | Highly uncertain but seems fairly conjunctive; seems that few risks would wipe out all people outside shelters but not people inside shelters | Highly uncertain, somewhat conjunctive, but plausible (seems that few risks would wipe out all people outside shelters but not people inside shelters) | Scenario (such as particular global-war or pandemic scenarios) where shelters could help key decisionmakers survive or put individuals in a much stronger position to recover. | Relatively likely | Highly uncertain but plausible | Could build more or improved disaster shelters, but believe we are already at the point of diminishing returns. | |||||||||||||||||
16 | Environmental catastrophe from synthetic biology (previously classified as part of biosecurity, but we are now planning a separate shallow-level investigation) | TBD | TBD | - | Shallow writeup in progress | TBD | TBD | TBD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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