October 2015 | Open Philanthropy Project                    @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.base.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.menus.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.messages.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/system/system.theme.css?prn1ub");   @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/jquery_update/replace/ui/themes/base/minified/jquery.ui.core.min.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/jquery_update/replace/ui/themes/base/minified/jquery.ui.theme.min.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/jquery_update/replace/ui/themes/base/minified/jquery.ui.accordion.min.css?prn1ub");   @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/comment_notify/comment_notify.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/comment/comment.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/date/date_api/date.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/date/date_popup/themes/datepicker.1.7.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/field/theme/field.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/footnotes/footnotes.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/custom/grants_summary/grants_summary.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/node/node.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/search/search.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/modules/user/user.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/views/css/views.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/caption_filter/caption-filter.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/ckeditor/css/ckeditor.css?prn1ub");   @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/ctools/css/ctools.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/typogrify/typogrify.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/modules/contrib/content_type_extras/css/content_type_extras.css?prn1ub");   @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/normalize.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/op-fonts.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/html.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/meanmenu.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/global.css?prn1ub"); @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/pages/pages.css?prn1ub");   @import url("https://web.archive.org./web/20190709092937cs_/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/all/themes/op_basic/styles/css/global/admin.css?prn1ub");                                     Jump to Navigation            Research & IdeasCause Selection Notable Lessons Cause Reports Conversations History of Philanthropy  Focus AreasU.S. Policy Criminal Justice Reform Farm Animal Welfare Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy Immigration Policy Land Use Reform Global Catastrophic Risks Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence Scientific Research Global Health & Development Other areas  GivingGrants Database Current Priorities Guide for Grant Seekers Grantmaking Stages  About UsWho We Are Vision & Values Openness Progress to Date Team Press Kit  Blog Get InvolvedContact Us Jobs Stay Updated          Search form  Search                     Home / Blog / Archive  October 2015              Why a New Study of the Mariel Boatlift Has Not Changed Our Views on the Benefits of Immigration   by David Roodman Published October 21, 2015       Note: Before the launch of the Open Philanthropy Project Blog, this post appeared on the GiveWell Blog. Uses of “we” and “our” in the below post may refer to the Open Philanthropy Project or to GiveWell as an organization. Additional comments may be available at the original post.

 

 As a consultant for the Open Philanthropy Project last year, I reviewed the research on whether immigration reduces employment or earnings for workers in receiving countries. I concluded that for natives the harm, if any, is small.

 Last month the prominent immigration researcher George Borjas posted a challenge to a seminal study in my review. His new paper contends that the Mariel boatlift, which brought some 60,000 Cuban refugees to Miami in 1980, did profoundly affect the labor market there, depressing wages for low-education men (ones with less than a high school education) by 10–30%.

 Borjas’s work is especially significant because it seems to upend a study of the boatlift published by David Card 25 years ago, which found little impact of all that immigration on workers in Miami. Interestingly, Borjas, who emphasizes the harm of Cuban immigration, is himself a Cuban emigré.

 I probed this dispute, replicating and checking the results in the dueling papers. I ultimately found little cause to change my views. The main reasons:

 Of the two Census Bureau data sets that Borjas relies on, the one with larger samples shows smaller impacts. According to that data set, wages for women, which Borjas excludes, rose, if anything, after immigration spikes (especially after a second one in 1994–95). I see no sharp breaks from long-term trends of the sort that could be confidently attributed to the 1980 immigration surge. The Borjas analysis appears correct that wages for low-education Miami men (defined henceforth as those with less than a high school education) were lower on average in 1981–83 than in 1977–79—with the drop being larger than in most other US cities. But the data argue more for a steady long-term decline than sudden drops after immigration surges. The Borjas analysis tends to obscure this distinction by aggregating or smoothing data over several years. The original study by David Card is one of 17 covered in my review, including three others exploiting natural experiments in mass migration. None of the studies is as compelling as a randomized trial, but the overall picture—of at most modest harm from substantial immigration—does not change if the Card study is removed. Details follow.

      Immigration Policy       David Roodman's blog Add new comment                 Stay Updated   Email me new blog posts Blog RSS feed More information     Recent blog posts        Explaining Our Bet on Sherlock Biosciences' Innovations in Viral Diagnostics    Our Progress in 2018 and Plans for 2019    New Staff in Operations, Programs, and Research    History of Philanthropy Literature Review: Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs    Reflections on Our 2018 Generalist Research Analyst Recruiting        Archives    2019 June 2019    June 2019   April 2019    April 2019    April 2019    April 2019   March 2019    March 2019   February 2019    February 2019  2018 December 2018    December 2018    December 2018    December 2018   October 2018    October 2018   September 2018    September 2018   May 2018    May 2018   April 2018    April 2018   March 2018    March 2018     March 2018    March 2018   February 2018    February 2018    February 2018   January 2018    January 2018    January 2018    January 2018  2017 December 2017    December 2017    December 2017    December 2017   November 2017    November 2017   October 2017    October 2017   September 2017    September 2017    September 2017    September 2017    September 2017    September 2017   June 2017    June 2017    June 2017    June 2017    June 2017   April 2017    April 2017    April 2017   March 2017    March 2017    March 2017    March 2017   February 2017    February 2017    February 2017  2016 December 2016    December 2016    December 2016    December 2016   October 2016    October 2016   September 2016    September 2016    September 2016    September 2016    September 2016   July 2016    July 2016   June 2016    June 2016    June 2016   May 2016    May 2016    May 2016    May 2016   April 2016    April 2016    April 2016   March 2016    March 2016    March 2016   February 2016    February 2016    February 2016    February 2016    February 2016  2015 December 2015    December 2015   November 2015    November 2015   October 2015    October 2015   September 2015    September 2015    September 2015    September 2015    September 2015    September 2015   August 2015    August 2015    August 2015    August 2015   July 2015    July 2015    July 2015    July 2015    July 2015    July 2015   June 2015    June 2015    June 2015    June 2015   May 2015    May 2015    May 2015    May 2015   April 2015    April 2015     April 2015    April 2015    April 2015    April 2015   March 2015    March 2015    March 2015    March 2015    March 2015   February 2015    February 2015    February 2015    February 2015  2014 October 2014    October 2014    October 2014   September 2014    September 2014    September 2014   August 2014    August 2014   July 2014    July 2014    July 2014   June 2014    June 2014   May 2014    May 2014    May 2014    May 2014    May 2014   April 2014    April 2014    April 2014   March 2014    March 2014    March 2014   January 2014    January 2014    January 2014  2013 December 2013    December 2013   November 2013    November 2013    November 2013   October 2013    October 2013    October 2013    October 2013    October 2013   September 2013    September 2013   July 2013    July 2013    July 2013    July 2013   June 2013    June 2013    June 2013   May 2013    May 2013    May 2013   April 2013    April 2013    April 2013    April 2013   March 2013    March 2013   February 2013    February 2013  2012 September 2012    September 2012    September 2012   July 2012    July 2012   June 2012    June 2012    June 2012    June 2012   May 2012    May 2012    May 2012    May 2012   March 2012    March 2012   February 2012    February 2012    February 2012    February 2012   January 2012    January 2012  2011 October 2011    October 2011   September 2011    September 2011    September 2011    September 2011                contact us jobs press kit  facebook twitter rss © Open Philanthropy Project. Except as otherwise noted, this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 United States License. Some images may be copyrighted by others and not licensed for re-use: see image captions or footnotes. Privacy policy         try { clicky.init(100914494); }catch(e){}