CIPA

If you're not interested in threads on CIPA and camera industry, read no further. This thread is not for you.

On another forum there has been a thread discussing this story http://www.43rumors.com/camera-slaes-history-from-2011-till-today-mirrorless-hype-is-over-dslr-rules/ The story and discussion offers various opinions regarding market prospects for 'mirrorless vs dslr'.

I've been watching the CIPA data for a while and am surprised this is how the discussion is being framed. So here is another look at the data, but showing 10 years rather than 15 months of data, and looking overall shipments of interchangeable lens cameras and cameras with built-in lenses ...

The last column is a projection for 2013 assuming the Jan-May data will hold for the remainder of the year. If, in fact, it does hold, then 2013 will be the first year that shipments of digital ILC's have fallen from the prior year.

There's a lot that can be said about these numbers. They don't include non-CIPA shipments (e.g., Samsung), there's an expected new round of camera announcements that should come in time for the holiday season, etc., etc. And there is a lot that could be said about why the numbers appear as they do -- people are hanging on to their cameras longer, no compelling product, etc.

But what I don't get is framing the discussion regarding the future of the digital cameras as 'mirrorless vs dslr'. It seems to me there is a more profound change underway in which CIPA is facing an existential threat due to commoditization of its primary products.

Time will tell, of course.

--
Jeff
http://www.flickr.com/photos/jck_photos/sets/