Today
Why the market doesn’t believe the RBA on rates
Despite the surprisingly strong hawkish rhetoric from the Reserve Bank this week, bond traders (and some economists) aren’t buying it.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort and Sarah Jones
Yesterday
Traders don’t believe the RBA’s warning on rates
Bond markets are still wagering that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates this year even as the central bank said it considered a rise on Tuesday.
- Cecile Lefort
This Month
Traders bet on rapid rate cuts as recession fears deepen
Bond prices are soaring globally after weaker US jobs data rattled investors and prompted traders to dial up the need for urgent rate cuts in both the US and Australia to stem an economic downturn.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The RBA has more to worry about than just inflation
Monetary policy is now more than ever just a wealth redistribution policy in Australia, just ask Baby Boomers.
- Updated
- Tim Hext
Fed’s rate cut conviction sweeps RBA up in global easing hopes
Markets are fully priced for Jerome Powell’s September easing, but economists do not share the same enthusiasm that the Reserve Bank may not be far behind.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
July
Relief rally sweeps market after cool inflation tempers rate fears
Shares had the best day since 2022, the Aussie dollar fell, and bond yields tumbled after core inflation prompted traders to rapidly start pricing in a rate cut in Australia.
- Joshua Peach and Sarah Jones
Traders gird for ‘dangerous’ 48 hours in markets
There’s a lot riding on the next few days, with Australia’s quarterly inflation report and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Anything less than consensus could rile markets.
- Sarah Jones
Bond market dials up US rate cut bets; RBA left behind
Goldman Sachs says there is now “solid rationale” for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this month. It’s a different picture in Australia, where markets are still pricing in a rate rise.
- Sarah Jones
- Opinion
- Interest rates
Why the US Fed needs to start cutting rates now
Key inflation and employment data that central bankers use to guide monetary policy lag far behind economic turning points, which results in hugely suboptimal rate decisions, writes Vimal Gore.
- Vimal Gor
New Zealand eyes August rate cut after ‘dovish pivot’
Market pundits have ramped up bets that the RBNZ may cut interest rates as soon as next month after the central bank said it was confident that inflation will return to target.
- Sarah Jones
Migration cut no ‘silver bullet’ to Australia’s inflation problem
While economists said a tightening in immigration rules should relieve rent prices and take pressure off the labour market, it may not be enough to curb inflation.
- Joanne Tran
Wall Street maps out what a Trump victory would mean for bonds
Strategists are urging clients to position for sticky inflation and higher long-term bond yields.
- Carter Johnson and Michael Mackenzie
Volatility is only certainty for traders parsing French elections
Traders are preparing for another volatile week after Marine Le Pen’s far-right party won the first round of France’s legislative elections.
- Julien Ponthus, Allegra Catelli and Alice Gledhill
June
- Opinion
- Interest rates
The RBA is walking a tightrope between inflation and jobs
As Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser said on Thursday, it’s a mistake to change policy on one piece of data. But it is an egregious folly to ignore serial indications of sticky inflation.
- Stephen Miller
Hot inflation fans bond market meltdown
The Aussie dollar jumped to US66.74¢ and bond yields surged to their highest in a month after a strong inflation report dashed hopes of lower interest rates.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
Are state governments on the brink of a debt crisis?
Victoria and Queensland have caught the infrastructure fever from NSW and have super-sized it. But financial discipline is in short supply.
- Tim Hext
Why the chances of a rate rise are higher than you think
Traders are largely ignoring the prospect of higher borrowing costs, despite the Reserve Bank’s growing concerns about still-high inflation, rate specialists warn.
- Cecile Lefort
Rate increase ‘more likely this year’ after RBA’s tough talk
An increasing number of economists say the next policy meeting in August is “live” for a rate rise after the central bank’s language at this week’s meeting.
- Cecile Lefort
Rate cut hopes fade as RBA sounds the alarm on inflation
Traders have pared back wagers for an interest rate cut in 2024 after the Reserve Bank said it was alert to upside risks to inflation.
- Cecile Lefort and Jonathan Shapiro
- Opinion
- Private equity
Why things are looking up for private markets and dealmaking
Turmoil and uncertainty are a constant in asset management. But things are starting to turn for deal makers as money is finally being put to work.
- Katrina King
