Your Gambling Guide to the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby

The entire baseball world will descend on Arlington and Globe Life Field for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game festivities. The defending champion Texas Rangers will host one of the best exhibition events in the entire sporting calendar on Monday night—the Home Run Derby.

The event allows the game’s budding stars to enter the national scene. This year’s field of eight contestants features a former two-time champion and five first-time participants.

MLB changed up the rules from the recent bracket-style format. Instead of quarterfinal matchups, all eight hitters will compete against one another; the players with the top four home run totals will advance to the semifinals. From that point, the top home run hitter from the first round will face the lowest, and the middle two will battle to compose the two semifinal matchups.

The league has also placed a cap on the total number of pitches allowed in the three-minute opening rounds (40) and in the two-minute final round (27). To prevent hitters from tiring out and swinging at everything, they will now need to choose their swings more wisely. Hitters will still receive a bonus period, but it will be “three outs” instead of additional time added on.

Here is a breakdown of all eight players’ journeys to the Home Run Derby field and how the underlying bat speed, swing metrics, and batted ball events give us a hint of which player to bet on to win the crapshoot of the Home Run Derby.

(All odds listed are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Pete Alonso (+300)

In an era when most of the top sluggers in the sport aren’t regular participants in the Derby, Alonso has made this event an annual tradition for himself. He won his first two attempts in 2019 and 2021 and then lost in the semifinal in 2022 and the first round in 2023. A victory in 2024 would make Alonso the second hitter ever to win the tournament three times since its inception in 1985.

Former Mets bench coach Dave Jauss will be throwing to Alonso once again this year after he helped Alonso to a title in 2021 and pitched to him in 2022. The pitching was a major issue for the Mets first baseman last year, when he lost in the opening round, and it’s another sign of how seriously Alonso takes the event that he went back to Jauss, who now works for the Nationals.

Alonso enters as the tournament favorite because of his pedigree in the event, but the average batted ball metrics don’t show him to be the best of the sluggers in this field. Alonso ranks second in bat speed, third in maximum exit velocity, and sixth in barrel rate. Four hitters in the field have more expected home runs than Alonso this year.

Verdict: Would it surprise anyone if Alonso made history on Monday in Texas and won? No. But there are better bets on the board, especially as he’s seen a bit of a power outage in his numbers in New York this year relative to past years.

Marcell Ozuna (+380)

Following poor hitting seasons in 2021 and 2022 with an OPS below .700 (Ozuna was also arrested on charges of aggravated assault by strangulation and battery in 2021 and DUI charges in 2022), he was nearly out of the league entirely. The Braves DH has had a remarkable statistical turnaround; he’s been the best hitter on an offense loaded with talent in Atlanta this season.

Ozuna’s raw power has never been a debate; it’s about how much he can tap into it. Of the eight hitters in the field, Ozuna is tied for the second-longest home run length, at 446 feet. He has the highest barrel rate (18.1 percent), which measures the best quality of batted balls based on exit velocity and launch angle. It is very predictive of future power and successful hitting outcomes. He also ranks fourth in bat speed.

Ozuna hit 40 home runs for the first time in his career last year and already has 26 in the first half of 2024. He’s one of the five players making their first appearance in this Derby and the oldest hitter (33) in the field.

Verdict: Ozuna is listed as the second favorite, and while he’s certainly one of the top four in my view, there are better options to back further down the board in this competition.

Gunnar Henderson (+430)

If you looked at a video of Henderson’s swing five years ago, it’d be hard to imagine that he’d be third in baseball in home runs and second in the AL MVP odds at age 23. The Orioles’ do-it-all shortstop quickly ascended from 42nd pick in the MLB draft out of high school into the game’s top prospect and now an MVP-level player. Even the more optimistic scouts didn’t project the elite power Henderson’s displayed this year.

Henderson cruised to AL Rookie of the Year with 28 home runs in 622 plate appearances last season. This year, he already has 27 dingers. Monday night is an opportunity for Henderson to introduce himself more fully to a national (and more casual) baseball audience who maybe hasn’t seen much of him as he’s pioneered the Orioles’ rise into World Series contender in the last two seasons.

Much like Julio Rodríguez dazzled in 2023 with his euphoric first round at home and Adley Rutschman wowed last year by homering from both sides of the plate, Henderson and the next player on this list are the two budding superstars and franchise centerpieces with the chance to raise their national profiles in this event.

Verdict: Henderson ranks first in both bat speed and average exit velocity and is tied for third in “no-doubter” home runs. He has the second-shortest swing in the field and the highest “blast rate,” a metric that examines hard hit balls that are also squared up.

His underlying profile is that of a potential champion, and he’s worthy of a bet at +430 to win the whole thing, even if he’s not my pick to win the competition.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+470)

Witt has considerably more baseball pedigree in his background than Henderson, so his meteoric rise to the top of the sport at the age of 24 is less of a surprise. His father pitched 16 seasons for seven different teams across his career. Bobby Jr. was the second pick in the same draft as Henderson and is now the face of the Royals’ rebuild in Kansas City. Witt finished fourth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2022, consolidated with an improved all-around 2023 season.

Witt has transformed his defense from well below league average in 2022 (minus-8 outs below average) into one of the game’s premier shortstops (plus-10) in 2023 and 2024. Witt has also consistently improved his batted-ball stats and hitting production. He has 12 no-doubter home runs this year—more than anyone in the field—and has the highest maximum exit velocity and the third-fastest bat speed.

Witt was born and raised in Colleyville, Texas, a 25,000-person suburb of Dallas/Ft. Worth. Globe Life Field is just 16 miles from Colleyville, cementing him as the hometown kid and one of the likely two fan favorites along with García. The right-handed batters have a modest advantage over the lefties in this park for home run power. According to Statcast Park Factors, Globe Life Field is 9 percent better for righty homers than lefty homers.

Verdict: When you combine the fact that Witt’s average home run length is the best in the field and the storybook element of winning the Derby in his hometown team’s stadium, Witt is the perfect combination of narrative and data to back as your best bet to win the crapshoot that is the Home Run Derby.

Bet Bobby Witt +470.

Adolis García (+410)

García is one of the streakiest hitters in the entire sport—just pull up a clip from his ALCS at-bats against Houston last year to see what the dialed-in version of García looks like. He feels very boom or bust in this competition. García is representing the Rangers in his home ballpark on Monday, and he’ll be looking to improve upon his subpar showing in last year’s Derby as one of two returners from last year’s field.

García hit just 17 home runs in the first round last year and was soundly beaten by eventual runner-up Randy Arozarena. The underlying metrics don’t really suggest that García should be the third favorite for the Derby. García has the second-slowest bat speed of anyone in the competition, and his average swing length is one of the longest in the entire sport.

His lengthy swing could lead to him expending more energy in the first round or two and wearing down as the competition progresses. García also doesn’t have the same level of effortless power as others in the Derby. Only Alec Bohm has fewer expected home runs (if you park-adjust home runs to Globe Life Field) than the Rangers slugger.

Verdict: García will be a popular narrative pick playing at home, but there are better options than the reigning ALCS MVP. His underwhelming batted ball profile and swing data suggest he’s closer to the bottom of the contenders than the top.

Teoscar Hernández (+1100)

The Hernández addition flew under the radar in the offseason when the Dodgers spent more than a billion dollars on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but Hernández has been a critical addition to the Dodgers lineup. When you look at the three outfield spots, the Dodgers have gotten minimal production from the non-Hernández spots. The right-handed free swinger had a power outage year in Seattle (who doesn’t), but he’s found the power stroke again in Chavez Ravine this season.

If Hernández stays healthy, he’s on pace to break his career-best home run mark of 32 (with Toronto in 2021), as he’s already hit 19 in the first half. Hernández ranks fifth in average bat speed and has the second-longest swing behind García of the players in this field. Only Alec Bohm has a lower maximum exit velocity, and while Hernández has hit some moonshots this year, he is actually tied with García for having the second-fewest no-doubter home runs.

Verdict: He’s the lowest person on this odds board that I could envision winning the entire competition, but he doesn’t have the upside of the younger superstars above him.

José Ramírez (+1200)

Ramírez is in the midst of the best power output of his entire career, with 23 homers in the first half of this season. Cleveland’s ballpark is playing considerably more hitter friendly this year, and the Guardians spent parts of the offseason focusing on pulling more fly balls and tapping into power as an organization. Ramirez’s career high was 39 HRs in 2018, and while he’s having a career year, it’s interesting to see him as a second-time participant in this field. Like García, Ramirez didn’t have a successful first attempt in the HR Derby. He entered the 2022 Derby as a long shot and hit the fewest homers of anyone in the field, losing to Juan Soto in the first round.

He’s one of the best all-around hitters in the sport, but raw home run power has never been his top skill set. Ramírez has the lowest average bat speed in the field.

Verdict: One potentially exciting thing to watch is that Ramírez is a switch-hitter, the only one in the field. His career splits from each side of the plate are nearly identical, and Ramírez hit from the right side in his first-round elimination in 2022. Will Ramírez lean into the righty park advantage and stick with what he did in 2022? Or will his lack of success lead him to flip to the left side this year? Or maybe he’ll pull a Rutschman and try a bit of both? Either way, he’s at an actual power disadvantage compared to the top guys in the field.

Alec Bohm (+1600)

The most notable national story of Bohm’s career so far was when he mouthed his displeasure for Philadelphia in April 2022 following a handful of errors against the Mets in two innings and a sarcastic cheer when he finally did make a routine play later in the game. At that point, Bohm was a top-three draft pick trying to prove he could stick at third base and not hitting nearly enough to justify his poor defense at the position. He hadn’t lived up to his 2020 rookie hitting success, either.

Bohm is on a team with a lot of stars in Philadelphia—Bryce Harper said he’ll be there handing him Gatorade and hyping him up—so his rapid improvement in the past two seasons has gone overlooked. Bohm is now a passable third baseman, and this year he was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. It’s not the most conventional Home Run Derby pick, given that Bohm is more traditionally a doubles hitter. The kids roaming around in the outfield better be fully focused when Bohm is hitting on Monday.

The Phillies third baseman leads the league in doubles, is top five in RBI, and has just 11 home runs. He hasn’t hit a ball over 111 mph this year, which everyone else in the field has done. He and Ramírez are the only hitters with barrel rates below 10 percent. Bohm is indeed hitting the ball in the air more and pulling it more, which has helped him tap into more power.

Verdict: There’s no pressure on Bohm to perform here, but a surprise first round could help put his name on the national radar. He’s arguably not a top-four power hitter in his own lineup, and this is a chance to separate himself from his star-studded teammates with bigger pedigrees. He’s correctly the longest shot to win this competition given his lacking home run power profile, but at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, he has the frame to mash some dingers.