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    Rate rise chances grow as employment jumps

    The market is pricing in a one-in-five possibility that the RBA will increase the cash rate when it meets next month, after strong jobs numbers in June.

    • Updated
    • Michael Read
    Homeowner pain. About one in 40 owner-occupiers with loan-to-value ratios above 80 per cent were more than 90 days behind on their mortgage in May.

    One in 40 highly indebted homeowners are behind on their mortgage

    Banks expect home loan arrears to increase further as more borrowers struggle to deal with high interest rates and cost-of-living pressures.

    • Updated
    • Michael Read

    How the RBA became a global outlier in its inflation fight

    This week on The Fin, economics correspondent Michael Read explains why inflation has proved stickier than expected and raised the stakes for the RBA’s big bet.

    The battle for Australia’s new submarines

    A new book reveals the problems Australian political and military leaders faced in making the most important naval acquisition in a generation.

    • Andrew Fowler

    Chief justice intervenes in tax plan for judges

    Federal Court Chief Justice Debbie Mortimer has also banned judges using their travel allowance for conferences.

    • Michael Pelly

    This could be the funniest business book you’ll read all year

    Former Australian trade negotiator Dmitry Grozoubinski has written a tome about international trade policy. And for that, he’s very, very sorry.

    • Hans van Leeuwen

    Opinion & Analysis

    Don’t put all energy transition eggs in one green basket

    The energy revolution is producing militant evangelists and sceptics of individual technologies. Andrew Forrest’s hydrogen retreat shows policymakers need to be more open-minded.

    The AFR View

    Editorial

    The AFR View

    On CFMEU, Albo must emulate Hawke

    Anthony Albanese has the opportunity to follow the example of Bob Hawke, who knew a thing or two about trade unions and industrial relations, and grasp the nettle of deregistering the corrupt union.

    Roger Gyles

    Former judge

    Roger Gyles

    Picking green over blue is stalling our hydrogen superpower hopes

    Labor’s tax incentive scheme maintains the habit of describing identical molecules with colours of the rainbow. It is out of step with Australia’s competitors and customers

    David Heard

    Energy expert

    David Heard

    Democrats try to stop the slide as Biden isolates

    Nothing has gone right for Joe Biden since his disastrous debate with Donald Trump last month. His COVID diagnosis may be the last straw for a distraught party.

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    More From Today

    Andrew Forrest has scaled back Fortescue’s green hydrogen ambitions.

    Don’t put all energy transition eggs in one green basket

    The energy revolution is producing militant evangelists and sceptics of individual technologies. Andrew Forrest’s hydrogen retreat shows policymakers need to be more open-minded.

    • 26 mins ago
    • The AFR View
    The Albanese government should deregister the CFMEU.

    On CFMEU, Albo must emulate Hawke

    Anthony Albanese has the opportunity to follow the example of Bob Hawke, who knew a thing or two about trade unions and industrial relations, and grasp the nettle of deregistering the corrupt union.

    • Roger Gyles
    Andrew Forrest’s says Fortescue will remain financially disciplined as it pursues its green vision.

    Picking green over blue is stalling our hydrogen superpower hopes

    Labor’s tax incentive scheme maintains the habit of describing identical molecules with colours of the rainbow. It is out of step with Australia’s competitors and customers

    • David Heard
    Joe Biden’s election campaign is in deep trouble as calls mount from within his party for him to step aside.

    Democrats try to stop the slide as Biden isolates

    Nothing has gone right for Joe Biden since his disastrous debate with Donald Trump last month. His COVID diagnosis may be the last straw for a distraught party.

    • Jennifer Hewett
    The CFMEU scandal raises obvious questions about how the governance standards of super fund boards could be improved.

    CFMEU scandal should force rethink on super fund boards

    Union-backed industry super funds have pushed hard to lift governance and accountability at public companies. Shouldn’t they want to improve their own governance, too?

    • James Thomson
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    US and China remain among each other’s top investors and customers.

    The world needs to prepare for a US-China trade war

    Democrat and Republican policymakers believe Washington must impose huge restrictions on Chinese technologies, including electric cars and solar panels.

    • Kenneth Rogoff
    The Albanese push to appoint an independent administrator is not a permanent fix.

    CFMEU’s industrial power has corrupted

    The scale of the systemic wrongdoing that has been uncovered demands a fuller judicial inquiry that must also probe the institutional enablers of the CFMEU’s crimes.

    • The AFR View
    Marine Le Pen with Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old who had hoped to be France’s next prime minister.

    Why does France’s far right get stronger with each election?

    The Western nation has not responded well to the challenges of globalisation, which is a problem that also applies to the whole of Europe.

    • Adrian Blundell-Wignall

    Yesterday

    Donald Trump at the Republican National Convention.

    ‘We have a country to save’: Republicans rally to a reborn Trump

    The Republican National Convention is showcasing a party dominated by Donald Trump and his views, while the disarray in the Democrats just keeps coming.

    • Jennifer Hewett

    This Month

    The IMF’s warning comes as economists await June quarter CPI numbers, which will be decisive in determining whether the RBA raises interest rates in August.

    Interest rates might need to stay high to tame inflation: IMF

    The IMF’s warning comes as economists await June quarter CPI numbers, which will be decisive in determining whether the RBA raises interest rates in August.

    • Michael Read
    Jim Chalmers rubbished Deloitte’s “guessing”. Ten weeks later, he all but confirmed it.

    Deloitte 1, Jim Chalmers 0

    Deloitte is sceptical of the government’s Future Made in Australia policy. Did that lead Jim Chalmers to slap down its economic forecasting too?

    • Myriam Robin

    Time running out to fix school funding sticking point

    Here we are, 12 years later, with at least one school generation having finished their education, and there’s still no needs-based Gonski funding for disadvantaged students.

    • Doug Taylor
    Novotel Brisbane Southbank Assistant Manager Michaela Barbeler. The hotel is experiencing high demand due to the origin decider taking place in Brisbane this week.

    $2400 a night: Hotel prices soar as Origin fans flock to Brisbane

    A perfect storm for the blockbuster rugby league series decider has sparked a surge in hotel rates across the city.

    • James Hall
    Donald Trump and J.D. Vance at the Republican Conference in Wisconsin.

    Donald Trump goes for broke with Vance

    Vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance is more evidence of how confident the Trump campaign feels about its election prospects.

    • Jennifer Hewett
    Ever since Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on imports from China, we have been witnessing a broad-based return of protectionism.

    Why Trump and other trends all point to higher inflation

    Societal forces from politics to geopolitics to de-globalisation to ageing and climate change are creating conditions that push towards higher inflation.

    • Raghuram Rajan
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    A US Marine V-22 Osprey, of the kind still landing at the Chinese-owned Port of Darwin.

    China’s front-row seat to Darwin’s air force manoeuvres

    It wouldn’t be “appropriate” for China to participate in Exercise Pitch Black. But it can easily watch.

    • Myriam Robin
    Cell vaccine production at CSL Seqirus plant at Holly Springs in North Carolina.

    CSL wins global avian flu vaccine contracts

    Australian pharmaceutical giant CSL is to supply up to 45 million shots of its avian flu vaccine to Europe and the US as health authorities prepare for possible human infection from the dangerous H5 strain.

    • Tom Burton
    On the day of Sir Robert Menzies’ funeral in Melbourne on May 19, 1978, the chief executive of CRA, Rod Carnegie, hosted Paul Keating for lunch.

    Rod Carnegie’s seminal lunch with Paul Keating

    Paul Keating reveals, for the first time, the pivotal conversation about the Australian economy with Rod Carnegie at lunch in Melbourne almost 50 years ago.

    • Tony Boyd
    The Republican National Convention opens this week with Donald Trump as its star.

    Trump’s survival will turbocharge the Republican convention

    The former president’s narrow escape from death is giving new life to his campaign, and Joe Biden’s address calling for unity won’t fix the extreme division in America.

    • Jennifer Hewett
    A  bloodied Mr Trump pumped a fist of defiance as he was whisked off stage to safety

    American democracy dodged a bullet too

    The failed attempt to take out Donald Trump might put him back in the Oval Office.

    • The AFR View