Sci-Fi Movies & Series

I write weekly reviews for this show that you can read , but when I write my review for tonight's episode, I'll want to preface it with a larger commentary about the show itself rather than dealing with the performance numbers, so I will make a separate post about that now. Why do I care to do this? Well, first of all, I'm a numbers nerd... I work in TV/streaming advertising for a career, so looking at channel/show performance and viewership numbers and strategizing plans based on that is what I do anyway. I think very interesting trends can be discovered, and the media industry has always fascinated me. Second, I'm a Star Wars nerd. I want good shows and I want them to do very well in capturing the public eye, so looking at how current storylines are doing helps me understand the direction Star Wars is going/could go in the future. Nielsen dropped their numbers earlier than usual this week, so let's take a look!

Analyzing Viewership Numbers for "The Acolyte" on Disney+

Following the underwhelming ratings for the two-episode premiere, Episode 3 numbers reveal that the ratings are still tracking lower than Ahsoka but higher than Andor. The two-episode premiere garnered 488 million minutes of total viewing time. However, in the week that Episode 3 was released, this number had dropped to 370 million minutes. It is important to note that Nielsen's data does not break down viewership numbers for individual episodes, and there may be some carryover from the first two episodes into the third week.

Comparative Analysis with Ahsoka

For a fair comparison, let's keep a close eye on Ahsoka, which also released its first two episodes simultaneously, followed by a single third episode. I know many people think that Ahsoka is more "watchable" for people since it featured a known character, but Disney investors don't care. They look at numbers. I'm not trying to make an argument about if Acolyte was "good" for it not featuring a known character, I'm simply trying to play the role of the Stuffy Suit looking at my pocketbook. Ahsoka achieved a Nielsen rating of 829 million minutes for its first two episodes. With the release of the third episode, *Ahsoka'*s viewership dropped to 487 million minutes, a figure that aligns with the average of the first two episodes. In week four, Ahsoka recorded 459 million minutes. In week five, Ahsoka saw a significant increase to 577 million minutes with the inclusion of Anakin setting social media abuzz. Keep these numbers in mind through the rest of this post and the coming weeks as we analyze trends. The structure of the two shows is very similar with Episode 5 being considered the "best" and one that generates lots of positive talk.

Nielsen Ratings for Star Wars Series on Disney+

Here are the Nielsen viewership numbers for the first three episodes of each Star Wars series on Disney+:

• **The Mandalorian S2:**

  • First episode: 1,032 million minutes

  • With 2 episodes released: 955 million minutes

  • With 3 episodes released: 873 million minutes

• **The Book of Boba Fett:**

  • First episode: 389 million minutes

  • With 2 episodes released: 563 million minutes

  • With 3 episodes released: 467 million minutes

• **The Mandalorian S3:**

  • First episode: 823 million minutes

  • With 2 episodes released: 889 million minutes

  • With 3 episodes released: 1,115 million minutes

• **Obi-Wan Kenobi:**

  • First two episodes: 1,026 million minutes

  • With 3 episodes released: 958 million minutes

• **Ahsoka:**

  • First two episodes: 829 million minutes

  • With 3 episodes released: 487 million minutes

• **Andor:**

  • First three episodes: 624 million minutes

• **The Acolyte:**

  • First two episodes: 488 million minutes

  • With 3 episodes released: 370 million minutes

Luminate Streaming Charts Comparison

I waited for Nielsen numbers to be released since they are the industry standard. However, Luminate's streaming charts came out much earlier, and now that I can analyze multiple weeks of comparable data for *The Acolyte*, both Nielsen and Luminate report very similar minutes viewed (only deviating ~3-5% from each other in Weeks 1 & 2), indicating consistency in their viewership metrics. I am still going to wait for Nielsen numbers since they are primarily used in the professional realm, so I will withhold comment from the future trend that Luminate shows is coming. But with Episode 3 being one of the longest at 42 minutes, *The Acolyte* only managed 370 million minutes. This does not bode well for the coming trend, as many people tuned into this episode to see the "controversy" for themselves, but as many did not enjoy this episode, we will soon definitively see that they do not stick around from week to week.

Average Viewership Analysis

It's important to understand how to properly analyze Nielsen data. "Minutes watched" can seem like a dumb data set to begin with, and when surface-level "journalists" try to paint a story without taking the time to calculate the numbers they can often come to inaccurate conclusions and lose the ability to see trends. The best way to track performance is to look at whole-season averages going week to week. We assume that each person watches an episode from start to finish (yes, I know that is not realistically the case, but we are using this as a baseline to extrapolate the number of viewers. The number of people who watched at least part of an episode is higher than the number I am about to provide as a "view". I am working with a consistent baseline that a whole episode runtime acts as a single view. For this task, we need to focus less on the precise specifics of individual watchers and more on the overall trends of mass numbers). So to calculate a "view", you simply have to take the total viewing minutes provided by Nielsen and divide it by the total runtime of the show.

(Mando S1 did not get Nielsen ratings, and we all know S2 was a major phenomenon success, so I'm trying to mainly compare Acolyte to recent releases post-Grogu hype. I also just couldn't find accurate Mando S2 budget #'s for the next part of my analysis...)

• **The Book of Boba Fett:** 952 million minutes total, 89 minutes runtime, average views: 10.7 million

• **Obi-Wan Kenobi:** 1,984 million minutes total, 135 minutes runtime, average views: 14.7 million

• **Andor:** 1,109 million minutes total, 161 minutes runtime, average views: 6.89 million

• **Ahsoka:** 1,316 million minutes total, 132 minutes runtime, average views: 9.97 million

• **The Mandalorian S3:** 1,712 million minutes total, 77 minutes runtime, average views: 22.23 million

• **The Acolyte:** 865 million minutes total, 119 minutes runtime, average views: 7.27 million

From Disney's Perspective, Cost/View

Let's go one more step here and look at the investment aspect from a financial standpoint. Maybe we don't necessarily care as viewers, but the money movers absolutely consider this. We are going to take the show's budget, divide it properly into the number of episodes, and then see how much a view costs Disney.

• **The Book of Boba Fett:** $4.21/view

• **Obi-Wan Kenobi:** $3.06/view

• **Andor:** $8.71/view

• **Ahsoka:** $3.81/view

• **The Mandalorian S3:** $2.02/view

• **The Acolyte:** $9.28/view

Future Prospects

Given the significant budget and high expectations to introduce new viewers to the era of the High Republic which Disney has **heavily** invested in, *The Acolyte*'s current performance is disappointing on paper. Its viewership numbers are lagging behind other Star Wars series, and if this trend continues, it could spell trouble for the show's future. I know Leslye has ideas in her mind for season 2, and it looks like the writing team made some preliminary drafts, but it was very obvious that it was not going to receive the green light until the Season 1 performance was evaluated. This is quite interesting compared to something like Andor which was comparable in budget/episode, also received relatively lower viewing numbers, but was immediately green-lit for a Season 2. I have looked at the Luminate Acolyte data for future weeks, and if Nielsen continues to track similarly, this is definitely headed for an indisputably terrible reception from the general public. These numbers are going to look much, much worse in 2 weeks.

Conclusion

The Acolyte's viewership numbers indicate a concerning trend for Disney+ and Lucasfilm. Despite a significant budget, the show has failed to capture the audience's interest at the same level as its predecessors, which were also falling below expectations. D+ has been hemorrhaging money as a platform, and we are likely to see a huge reevaluation of Star Wars production in the very near future. Skeleton Crew is going to be released later this year, but it's been picture-locked for nearly a year already, they've just been sitting on it. Andor S2 and Ahsoka S2 are the only other projects currently in production. These are both still remnants of the "old way". The future of Star Wars shows beyond 2026 is wide open and I would expect to see a very different approach.

Please recognize that at the end of the day, Disney and ONLY Disney possess the real numbers to do a proper cost/benefit analysis. I am simply working with publicly available data that I can compare between all streaming/cable shows and I try to see trends between them. Thanks to any numbers/Star Wars nerds who made it this far with me!