Why success for Wallabies this year is finishing top of ‘second division’
By Paul Cully
On the evidence of last weekend, the Rugby Championship will be a two-tier tournament, with South Africa and New Zealand at the top and Australia and Argentina at the bottom.
The pace and intensity of the Tests in Dunedin and Pretoria were a step above the Wallabies’ welcome win over Wales in Sydney, while Los Pumas were well beaten by an understrength France in Argentina and looked in desperate need of new blood.
The World Rugby rankings reinforce the idea that there are, effectively, two “divisions” in the top 10. South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand, France and England are the top five. Scotland, Argentina, Australia, Italy and Fiji round out the top 10.
About three ranking points separate England in fifth and Scotland in sixth, and the improving English are 7.51 ranking points ahead of the Wallabies.
That is an enormous difference for the Wallabies to make up over the course of the year, particularly as England are ahead of Australia in terms of development and have unearthed a couple of Test-match bruisers in George Martin and Chandler Cunningham-South.
Painfully modest as it sounds, realistic success for the Wallabies this year would be to finish sixth in the world rankings, ahead of Scotland, Argentina and the increasingly solid Fijians, who recorded an excellent away win against Georgia last weekend.
Hunter Paisami kept the Welsh defence guessing.Credit: Getty Images
Even getting to No.6 would be an achievement, given only one of the past four Wallabies coaches has ended with a winning percentage above 50 per cent. Joe Schmidt would likely need to reach a comparatively stratospheric 65-70 per cent to threaten the top five.
Selling the No.6 ranking as an achievement to success-starved Wallabies fans will be hard, with many regarding the 1991-2003 period as the natural order of things rather than anomalous. However, if the point of Australian rugby this year is to reattach itself to the real world, then it is the message that needs to be conveyed from the board and executive downwards.
The win against Wales was worthy, but highlighted the fact that this Wallabies squad is light on top-tier quality. You could argue that this is self-inflicted – for example, the exclusion of Mark Nawaqanitawase – but the main ingredient missing is time: the time to get Angus Bell and Len Ikitau (available imminently) back on the paddock, the time to nurture the undoubted talents of Tim Ryan and Max Jorgensen, the time to work with Joseph Suaalii, who could absolutely make a near-immediate impact at the Wallabies, and the time to reintegrate players such as Will Skelton.
What I read from the inclusion of Charlie Cale and Langi Gleeson, however, is that Schmidt doesn’t need to be convinced about the merits of players who have, for want of a better phrase, X-factor.
Don’t mistake the possession-based game plan he built at Ireland as a rigid template he will impose on Australia: it simply reflected the relative homogeneity of athlete available to him in that country, where the number of blokes standing 195 centimetres, and with the ability to run like the wind like Cale, are limited.
To my eye, Cale isn’t ready for Test rugby, but Schmidt has shown an inclination to accelerate the Wallabies’ development by including him and young prop Isaac Kailea, who is still wet behind the ears in terms of learning his trade.
What we have then, is a Wallabies team simply trying to lay some foundations over the July tests, and one that will have to work hard and methodically to break down a Welsh side that similarly resides in the “second division” of world rugby at the moment.
There are warning signs all over this second Test, not least because the Welsh will be utterly desperate and incoming fullback Cam Winnett looks like a nice footballer. Any Wallabies win, therefore, would be another step in the right direction, even though there is impatience for a great leap.
Watch All Blacks v England, Wallabies v Wales, Japan v Georgia, Springboks v Ireland, Argentina v France and Wallaroos v Black Ferns this weekend with every match streaming ad free, live and on demand on the Home of Rugby, Stan Sport.