This Month
- Opinion
- Bonds
Are state governments on the brink of a debt crisis?
Victoria and Queensland have caught the infrastructure fever from NSW and have super-sized it. But financial discipline is in short supply.
- Tim Hext
Why the chances of a rate rise are higher than you think
Traders are largely ignoring the prospect of higher borrowing costs, despite the Reserve Bank’s growing concerns about still-high inflation, rate specialists warn.
- Cecile Lefort
Rate increase ‘more likely this year’ after RBA’s tough talk
An increasing number of economists say the next policy meeting in August is “live” for a rate rise after the central bank’s language at this week’s meeting.
- Cecile Lefort
Rate cut hopes fade as RBA sounds the alarm on inflation
Traders have pared back wagers for an interest rate cut in 2024 after the Reserve Bank said it was alert to upside risks to inflation.
- Cecile Lefort and Jonathan Shapiro
- Opinion
- Private equity
Why things are looking up for private markets and dealmaking
Turmoil and uncertainty are a constant in asset management. But things are starting to turn for deal makers as money is finally being put to work.
- Katrina King
Investors dial up bets on September Fed rate cut after weak jobs data
Traders ascribe a 78 per cent chance the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, opening the door for the RBA to follow.
- Cecile Lefort
$A jumps most in a month as markets ramp up rate cut bets
Traders have dialled up expectations that both the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank will cut rates this year after US inflation slowed more than expected.
- Cecile Lefort
Slowing economy puts RBA rate cut on the cards: Minack
Macro strategist Gerard Minack says the cash rate is “restrictive enough”, while global borrowing costs are going to remain stubbornly high for years to come.
- Jonathan Shapiro
Canada first major central bank to cut rates ahead of ECB
The move comes ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, which is also expected to reduce rates. The Fed is scheduled to meet next week.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort and Sarah Jones
GDP revisions dent hopes of RBA rate cuts
Traders push back the timing of rate cuts to July next year after “material” revisions in GDP data indicated household finances were more robust than many feared.
- Cecile Lefort
RBA rate rise still expected even after ‘balanced’ wage review
Bond traders are still anticipating the Reserve Bank may lift the cash rate to tame inflation, even as the Fair Work Commission kept the minimum wage increase below 4 per cent.
- Cecile Lefort
May
Economists read riot act to Fair Work on minimum wage
The Fair Work Commission is expected to lift the minimum wage by 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent next week, but economists warn that anything more will add to inflation.
- Cecile Lefort
Markets increasingly expect next interest rate move will be up
Traders are increasingly confident the Reserve Bank will be forced to raise interest rates, particularly if a decision to lift minimum wages next week is above expectations.
- Updated
- Cecile Lefort
RBA ‘one bad inflation report’ away from hiking, say economists
Yields rose and equities sank on Wednesday, after another hot inflation print fanned rate rise worries among Australia’s traders and economists.
- Joshua Peach and Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
The long wait for rate cuts may be just beginning
Rate cuts that had been pencilled in for mid-year have been regularly pushed back. It’s fair to wonder whether they will instead be a feature of 2025.
- Daniel Moss
Bond returns are back and Pimco is ‘excited’
The $2.9 trillion fund manager is buying up Australian government bonds, among other things, betting that the Reserve Bank will need to cut rates less than the Fed. They are also wagering on the US housing market and consumer.
- Cecile Lefort
- Opinion
- Bonds
I have fallen in love with bonds again – and with good reason
The asset class look to be on the cusp of a significant fall in yields and rise in prices.
- Vimal Gor
Traders wrong-footed after RBNZ shocks with rate rise talk
New Zealand’s central bank kept the cash rate steady at a 15-year high of 5.5 per cent as expected on Wednesday, but surprised the market by pushing out the likely timing of some rate relief.
- Cecile Lefort
Ex-Soros star Scott Bessent jockeys with John Paulson to run Trump’s Treasury
While Ken Griffin and other mega donors are focusing on Trump’s vice presidential pick, those on Wall Street are angling for a different spot in a second Trump administration.
- Updated
- Katherine Burton, Nancy Cook and Amanda Gordon
BlackRock’s Rieder says rate cut would tame US inflation
High interest rates are generating more income from fixed-income investments for well-heeled Americans, the firm’s chief investment officer says.
- Carter Johnson
