Five Most Popular Posts in June

And that's general election month out of the way. Did the uptick in politics interest alter the pattern of appeal where this here blog is concerned? Not really!

1. Leaving Labour
2. The Far Left and the 2024 General Election
3. Dismantling Labour's Base
4. Bottling Clacton
5. What if the Tories Come Third?

If you'd told me at the start of the campaign that my party membership would be one of its casualties, I might just about have believed you. The departure was a long time coming, but unlike those who wax lyrical about their leavings as a "liberation" I've experienced this as nothing of the sort. 'Independent socialist' is a contradiction in terms, and being a solo flier is not a good place to be. The reasons for going are outlined in the month's most read post, but tbh they're far from unique. In second are the candidacies of an array of revolutionary/socialist groups and those who seek that mantle. This is followed by the precipitating factor of my resignation - the dropping of Faiza Shaheen and the attempt to deselect Diane Abbott at the last possible moment. Zooming up the charts from the back end of the month is Labour's stupid and politically cowardly decision to pull resources from the campaign against Nigel Farage in Clacton. And coming last was a bit of crystal ball gazing. What happens if the Liberal Democrats become the official opposition?

Fishing around in June's posting pond, I've reeled in two more pieces. There's this one on Keir Starmer's hatchet man, Morgan McSweeney. And leaving off the neat politics, I've added the mixer of science fiction with Emma Newman's Planetfall.

It doesn't take a genius to see what's going to dominate next month's postings. At the top will either be something about the character of the results, the complexion of the first Starmer government, or (knowing this blog's audience) the round-up of the far left's election results. As ever, if you haven't already don't forget to follow the occasional newsletter, and if you like what I do (and you're not skint), you can help support the blog. Following me on Twitter and Facebook are cost-free ways of showing your backing for this corner of the internet.

Quarter Two By-Election Results 2024

This quarter 229,003 votes were cast in 101 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 13 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter One's results here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q1	+/- Q2 2023	Average	+/- Seats
Conservative	95	62,188	27.2%	+0.0	-3.7	655	0
Labour	91	76,654	33.5%	+9.4	+1.4	842	+3
Lib Dem	84	42,088	18.4%	-8.3	-2.3	501	-1
Green	73	23,456	10.2%	+1.8	+1.2	321	+1
SNP*	5	4,457	1.9%	+0.8	+1.4	891	0
PC**	1	286	0.1%	-1.0	+0.1	286	0
Ind***	44	13,567	5.9%	-2.1	.   +0.9	308	-2
Other****	43	8,065	3.5%	+2.2	+1.1	188	0

* There were five by-elections in Scotland
** There were three by-elections in Wales
*** There were eight Independent clashes
**** Others consisted of Alba (107), Common Ground (573), Communist Party of Britain (47), Coventry Citizens Party (128), Fateham Residents (307), Heritage (36), Liberal (22), Party of Women (42), Peterborough First (1,307), Propel (292), Reform (417, 232, 212, 141, 128, 90, 88, 82, 18), Scottish Family Party (136), Scottish Libertarian (25), Socialist Alternative (86), South Devon Alliance (523), Sovereignty (41, 12), Tattenham and Preston Residents (1,318), TTIP (150), TUSC (151, 82, 72, 57, 48, 30, 33, 20, 19, 7), UKIP (259, 50), Workers' Party (198, 46, 20, 11)

And there is our final quarter before the general election. The commentary for June's by-election results applies here, though interesting to see the decline in Liberal Democrat support while the Greens, as forecast, continue to slowly increase the size of their footprint. The Conservatives are, of course, flattered by these results.

Next quarter there is a big bang of by-elections on 4th July with very little after then, including comparative few vacancies. Once July is out of the way, August and September are looking quite empty. It will be interesting to see how well Labour does as it takes office and how long a honeymoon, if there is one, will last.

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Local Council By-Elections June 2024

This month saw 25,847 votes cast in 17 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Two council seats changed hands. For comparison with May's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- May	+/- Jun 23	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	16	6,464	25.0%	-2.0	-6.7	404	0
Labour	15	8,796	34.0%	-0.8	+2.8	586	+2
Lib Dem	16	3,723	14.4%	-4.4	-7.4	233	0
Green	14	1,590	6.2%	-5.3	-1.1	114	0
SNP*	2	1,725	6.7%	+6.2	+5.4	863	0
PC**	1	286	1.1%	+1.1	+1.1	286	0
Ind***	9	2,446	9.5%	+5.2	+8.9	272	-1
Other****	12	817	3.2%	-0.1	-2.8	68	0

* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes this month
**** Others in June consisted of Communist Party of Britain (47), Coventry Citizens Party (128), Reform (232, 88, 18), Scottish Libertarian (25), Sovereignty (12), TUSC (72, 57, 7), Workers' Party (20, 11)

The last month of by-elections before the general election, and do the results tell us much? With the Tories coming in at 25% of votes cast, that is at the upper edge of the snap shots captured by the pollsters. Most have them at quite significantly below that. Meanwhile Labour is only at 34%, below everything reported thus far. How to explain this discrepency. Is it all about local factors? They obviously play their part, because thee's no way the sundry independents up for election next Thursday are going to coming within spitting distance of 10% of popular support they've accrued here. Again, what's important is age. Older people are more likely to vote in council by-elections than younger people, and because mass conservatism is concentrated among older cohorts, as a general rule the Tories enter these contests at an advantage. Hence they are expected to outperform national polling figures while Labour are more likely to underperform. Which is what we see here, and if the Tories are this low here then the election result is going to be brutal.

4 June
Powys, Rhiwcynon, Con gain from Ind

6 June
North Lincolnshire, Axholme North, Con hold
North Lincolnshire, Brumby, Lab hold
Telford & Wrekin, The Nedge, Lab hold
Torbay, Wellswood, Con hold

13 June
Greenwich, Mottingham, Coldharbour & New Eltham, Con hold
Highland, Tain & Easter Ross, Ind hold
West Dunbartonshire, Clydebank Central, Lab hold

20 June
Coventry, Radford, Lab gain (unfilled vacancy)
Mansfield, West Bank, Lab gain from Con
Mid Devon, Tiverton Westexe, LDem hold
Oxfordshire, Sutton Courtenay & Marcham, LDem hold
Sefton, St Oswald, Lab hold
Vale of White Horse, Sutton Courtenay, LDem hold

27 June
Cumberland, Harraby North, Lab hold
Hackney, Hoxton West, Lab hold
South Tyneside, Primrose, Ind hold

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Bottling Clacton

There have been many lows during Labour's election campaign. It started off with accusations of egregious seat-stitching and racism, levelled off with a saying-the-quiet-part-out-loud moment, and ended up offending Bangladeshi Britons by pledging to deport refugees from that country. These are examples of what we've come to expect from the "changed" Labour Party because that's what the party does when the right wing are in charge. What no one was prepared for was their abandonment of the campaign in Clacton, where Nigel Farage is standing. The Graun article has to be seen to be believed.

Labour's candidate, Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, was told to leave Clacton and instructed to campaign in a West Midlands target seat. There is also some suggestion his social media content, which includes him meeting Farage face-to-face and picking up complements for A1 sartorial choices, has upset party bosses. Only Keir Starmer is allowed to go viral, apparently. And how this looks is appalling. Not only is it bad enough that Labour have effectively disappeared another prominent black activist (albeit one of very recent providence), they're leaving the seat wide open for Farage. It means Labour cannot capitalise on the C4 News's racist reveal of the local Reform campaign, or do anything that might make his campaign wobble.

Let's be fair to Labour. Regardless of what one might think of their politics, as many of its candidates have run disciplined and active campaigns, they've basically carried a bungling leadership that has made life harder for them. It's fortunate that knowing oblivion awaits the Tories, the press and broadcast media are applying zero pressure and asking Starmer and co. next to no tricky questions. The two leaders' head-to-heads, the one on Wednesday evening and the other a few weeks ago did not jump the tracks of permissible debate. And so Labour have coasted, knowing that no matter what they do the election is in the bag. The Clacton decision is a product of this arrogant mindset.

Using the resources argument when the party is swimming in super rich cash is pure excuse. Running away from Farage is another episode in Starmer's political cowardice. Time and again, the leadership have never looked so comfortable when attacking and lecturing the left for purported infantile politics and being more concerned with protest than power. But when it comes to an argument with the right, it's capitulation after capitulation. On Rwanda specifically, Labour's opposition owes more to bean counting than politics. They have kept the framing of asylum as a problem, have refused to concede refugees any sort of personhood, and have framed it as a waste of taxpayers' cash and not the gut wrenching outrage it is. Quite happy to tell millions of the party's previous voters they're wrong, actually taking a lead and making the sorts of pro-asylum pro-immigration points Starmer himself used when he ran for leader is too much hard work, and risks alienating the reactionary bloc the Labour right want to appeal to. They want to appeal to them because the costs are lower, and the after politics rewards are better. No one has got wealthy from challenging and defeating divide-and-rule politics.

This is why they don't want to take on Farage. Fielding a young, energetic, and charismatic black candidate was, from the apparat's point of view, a mistake to begin with. Owusu-Nepaul's selection was a challenge to right wing racist voters to the seat. To have him campaign and, presumably, putting out anti-racist, anti-Farage literature, to persuade Reform-leaning punters that they're wrong and he offers a better politics was at odds with Labour's appeasement efforts. And so the effort had to be guillotined.

Except no right winger in Clacton is going to thank Labour for folding up their campaign. But what it does do is tell the party's loyal support that it is more serious fighting the left and other parties in closer political proximity than the far right. That racism and xenophobia is something to adapt to, not reject and challenge. And that it cannot be relied upon to act as a bulwark against the hard right Tory turn we might see following the election. The wider left and not a few Labour-friendly centrists are appalled as well. But it's too late now. Labour's traditional standing among minority ethnicity communities has been further jeopardised by ducking what, in this instance, might have been a doomed fight with Farage. But the politics of taking part were vital. Bottling Clacton will cost Labour a lot more in the medium to long run than any savings made from this stupid, venal, and short-sighted decision.

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