Crossover moment: Farage’s party outperforms Sunak’s Tories in polls for first time
By Rob Harris
London: Nigel Farage’s populist Reform party has overtaken the ruling UK Conservatives in the opinion polls for the first time, in a further blow to Rishi Sunak which risks mass panic among many of his MPs.
The poll, by YouGov and published by The Times, suggests that public support for Reform is now at 19 per cent, up two points and a point above the Tories on 18 per cent with the election less than three weeks away.
Britain’s Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage.Credit: AP
Labour was in the lead on 37, while the Liberal Democrats were down one point at 14 per cent, according to the survey of more than 2200 adults taken on Wednesday and Thursday.
Farage, a leading pro-Brexit figure, media figure and a seven-time previous candidate at UK general elections without winning, announced his surprise return to politics last week, promising to lead a political revolt and saying he only decided to run because it was so far “the dullest, most boring electoral campaign we have ever seen”.
The polling result is a record high for Farage’s party and the first time it has been placed ahead of the Tories, a so-called crossover moment. Facing mass wipe out, the Tories have this week adopted a strategy of warning that people who vote Reform could hand Labour a super-majority that would put Labour in power for a decade or more.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer set out plans to raise £8.6 billion ($16.5 billion) in tax at his election platform on Thursday, promising to “relight the fires” of economic growth and bring “Conservative chaos” to an end.
The Conservatives’ latest advertising campaign appears to target potential Reform voters, warning them that the Tories could be reduced to just 57 seats in the next parliament, even if Reform picked up no seats. To have an overall majority, a political party must win at least 326 of the 650 seats in parliament.
As attention turns to the future of the Conservatives after July 4, Farage on Thursday said he would be willing to lead a merged Reform-Conservative party after the election.
“I think something new is going to emerge on the centre-right, I don’t know what it is called,” Farage, a prominent supporter of Donald Trump’s presidential bid, told London radio LBC.
Fear in the ranks of the Tories. Prime Minister Rishi SunakCredit: Getty Images
“But do I think I am capable of leading a national opposition to a Labour Party with a big majority where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes.”
Asked if he would be happy to lead a merged party, he replied: “Yes.”
He added: “They [the Tories] may be dead. They may well be dead. This may well be the end of their journey. I would be prepared to lead the centre-right in this country.”
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system – in which the candidate with the highest number of votes in each area wins – makes it unlikely that Reform could win many seats.
But overtaking the Tories in a poll will be seen as a symbolic moment for Sunak’s party.
Many Tory MPs are terrified Reform will put the final nail in their coffin, not by winning their seat but by taking enough votes to hand it to Labour or the Lib Dems.
The electoral wipeout scenario has been likened to the 1993 Canadian election, where the Conservative government which had been in office for 10 years was cannibalised by a right-wing populist party, also called Reform, and it was reduced to just two seats, losing 154.
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