Yesterday
- Opinion
- Global economy
Why inflation will be back, sooner than you think
Central banks cannot be as independent as we like to believe. And they would always rather avoid a recession than avoid inflation.
April
- Opinion
- Australian economy
Magic debt thinking collides with inflation and higher rates
Since the GFC, economists have suggested that using debt to finance government spending is a free lunch. But the tide has turned in the past two years.
March
- Opinion
- AI
Why the dismal state of US politics is fuelling the AI boom
With political gridlock in Washington the norm, the sharemarket is betting that Nvidia is less likely to face anti-monopoly regulation.
February
- Opinion
- Global economy
Davos was upbeat, but don’t count on a soft landing
China’s slowdown, lacklustre Europe and no US fiscal tightening in an election year means the risks to global growth are still on the downside.
January
- Opinion
- Global economy
Every chance that 2024 is going to be rockier than 2023
The worst fears of a year ago did not happen. But the world economy is carrying too many stored-up problems for 2024 to be quiet.
November 2023
- Opinion
- Emerging markets
Emerging markets have ignored the ‘Buenos Aires consensus’
Serial debt-defaulting countries have stunned economists by thriving though prudent policies advocated by the IMF.
May 2023
- Opinion
- US Congress
US debt ceiling debate is really about power
The idea of both sides that debt is always free as long as it is used the ‘right’ way is stupefyingly naive.
April 2023
- Opinion
- TikTok
TikTok is the sound of the clock ticking on globalisation
Compromise does not seem to be possible between the Biden administration and a social media sensation that has America hooked.
February 2023
- Opinion
- Australian economy
Why it is far too soon to be optimistic on the economy
A rebound in China or a shallow recession in Europe do not offset the uncertainty over the war in Ukraine.
January 2023
- Opinion
- Global economy
The coming financial contagion
A sustained wave of monetary tightening could expose unexpected vulnerabilities in the global financial system.
November 2022
- Opinion
- Bitcoin
Cryptocurrency will survive. But will there be any point to it?
Digital currencies will get over Sam Bankman-Fried. But it may be at the cost of the anonymity that makes them so useful to many of their most devoted users.
- Opinion
- Inside China
China’s diminishing returns under Xi
With the Chinese government even less inclined to adopt market-oriented reforms, a smooth landing from the real estate meltdown looks less likely than ever for China’s faltering economy.
October 2022
- Opinion
- World markets
Britain is not an emerging market – yet
While talk of an outright UK default is overblown, it is not unreasonable to anticipate a painful reckoning just short of that outcome.
August 2022
- Opinion
- AI
The Ukraine war and China’s rise will determine the world chess champ
Ding Liren will receive enormous help from the Chinese tech community ahead of next year’s championship match. His Russian rival may not get similar support.
July 2022
- Opinion
- Carbon pricing
Why energy prices will stay high even if global economy tanks
Energy prices will remain elevated and volatile until a robust carbon price is able to fast-track alternative green investments away from fossil fuels.
May 2022
The Fed doesn’t deserve all the inflation blame
Central banks around the world have had to navigate extraordinary political pressure in recent years amid an uncertain inflation outlook.
- Opinion
- Global economy
Brace for the global recession trifecta
Gloomy forecasts for the US, Europe and China tend to underestimate how downturns in one region may compound the difficulties of others.
March 2022
- Opinion
- Russia-Ukraine war
Brutal invasion should be a wake-up call for Western politicians
I am amazed by how many of my otherwise well-informed friends are asking why Europe does not mount a stronger military response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Part of the answer, is its egregious lack of preparedness.
February 2022
- Opinion
- Coronavirus pandemic
Slow Fed right to be wary digital dollars
In a democracy, the US central bank will get one shot at an official cryptocurrency. It needs to be sure the gains outweigh the risks.
January 2022
- Opinion
- IMF
IMF must stop playing Santa to emerging markets on the brink
By morphing into an aid agency during the pandemic, the IMF’s no strings loans have created a financial mess that needs cleaning up.