Why EV makers are set to turn on Donald Trump

It has paired that regulation with tax incentives to encourage automakers to produce EVs, and motorists to buy them. And to help US carmakers compete with cheap imports and give the domestic market a chance to develop, the government has placed a 100 per cent tariff on EVs made in China.

All that is at stake in November, said Margo Oge, who headed the EPA’s transportation emissions program under three presidents. “If Trump is elected, we absolutely will not reach Biden’s target,” she said.

Mr Trump has famously dismissed the scientific evidence that the planet is heating as a result of the burning of oil, gas and coal as “a hoax”. He is heavily courting the oil and gas industry, telling executives recently they should donate $US1 billion ($1.5 billion) to his campaign so he can retake the White House and reverse Mr Biden’s climate policies.

A second Trump administration could hinder EVs in several ways; by rolling back the regulation that limits tailpipe pollution, and by changing the rules set by the Treasury that determine the number of EVs eligible for tax credits.

If Republicans gain control of Congress, a Trump administration could also work with those politicians to rescind parts of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which provided at least $US370 billion in tax credits for clean energy, battery manufacturing, and EV sales and manufacturing.

But Mr Trump may find the auto industry and its suppliers are cool to his plans to thwart electric vehicles, Ms Oge said.

EV makers to forge on

It is likely that some major automakers, if not all, will continue to invest in making and marketing EVs while motorists continue to buy them, Ms Oge and other analysts said.

Companies would continue to build EV charging stations, batteries and other parts of the supply chain, they said. And some parts of the EV industry would most likely lobby to protect favourable policies.

For years, automakers fought federal efforts to impose tight controls on tailpipe emissions that would compel them to sell electric vehicles. But now that the government is requiring tough new limits on tailpipe pollution, and companies have sunk billions into new processes to build EVs, some automakers say that a sharp U-turn in EV policies could harm their industry.

“The auto industry is in a very different place than it was in 2017,” said John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents 42 car companies that produce nearly all new vehicles sold in the US.

“In 2017, there were a handful of plants in the US making EV batteries, and today there are dozens,” he said. “The market is different, the automotive industrial base is different, and the world is different.”

Mr Trump may find that some automakers do not want a reversal. For example, Ford Motor has intervened on behalf of the EPA in a lawsuit by Republican attorneys-general and oil companies to block the Biden administration’s limits on tailpipe emissions.

If Mr Trump wins the November election and is unable to get Congress to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, he could amend Treasury regulations to sharply limit who can qualify for tax credits designed to encourage EV manufacturing and sales.

The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law also provided $US7.5 billion to states to build fast charging stations for EVs. That could be rescinded if Mr Trump worked with Congress to change the law.

All 50 states have applied for the money, which is supposed to be used to construct fast chargers along major highways so that drivers can recharge on road trips.

But private investment and state funds, over which a Trump administration would have no control, have often outpaced the federal program.

Sara Rafalson, a vice-president at EVgo, a Los Angeles charging company that has built chargers in more than 35 states, said the company was seeing its biggest demand growth in Republican-led states such as Texas and Florida.

Given the growth in EVs and the investments in Republican states, it’s possible that those dynamics could play out in surprising ways in a new Trump White House, said Mike Murphy, a veteran Republican strategist who founded an EV advocacy group.

“You have closet EV supporters in the Republican world,” he said. “There will be sober, quiet voices even in Trumpland that will push back. And the nice thing about Trump is that he can always change. He’s totally transactional.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.