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This was published 3 months ago
We asked data nerds to pick the NSW Origin team. Here is who they selected
By Dan Walsh
To borrow from the philosophical types, if NSW and Queensland pick Origin teams without a selection bolter, are they even Origin teams?
Per Roy Masters, Zac Lomax as the Blues bench utility anyone? Liam Martin at prop, as Brad Fittler has tossed up? Or maybe Andrew Johns opting for Reece Robson over Api Koroisau at hooker?
Or what about the left-field picks tossed up when we asked the erstwhile data nerds (a term of affection and pride) by Champion Data to ignore reputation, experience and what a player had for breakfast, and just do what they do best.
Numbers. Purely by the numbers this season, Jacob Kiraz would be partnering NSW incumbent Brian To’o on the wing. To be clear, Kiraz won’t be trading Belmore blue for sky blue.
But with the statistics crunched before his two tries and 256 running metres against the Dragons on Thursday night, Kiraz was already shading leading contenders Joseph Suaalii and Josh Addo-Carr with 184 metres a game and 4.6 tackle busts a game.
Centre presents Michael Maguire’s biggest headache given Tom Trbojevic, Bradman Best, Kotoni Staggs and Campbell Graham all sidelined.
If Champion Data had their way, Izack Tago’s eye-watering performances on Penrith’s right-edge (remember poor old Kelma Tuilagi trying to keep him in check earlier this year?) alongside Cronulla’s Jesse Ramien.
Dylan Edwards’ 220 run metres and 110 kick return metres both rank first in the NRL, and along with six tries and another six try-assists, have him shading incumbent captain James Tedesco for the stats gurus.
The NRL experts at Nine and this masthead can’t split the Blues five-eighth options, with Jarome Luai just getting the nod ahead of Cody Walker, Matt Burton and Luke Keary. Champion Data though is backing Walker to retain his place thanks to a try-assist and line-break assist per game for the struggling Rabbitohs.
Champion Data’s forward pack presents a mix of Origin certainties - led by Payne Haas (142 running metres and 29 tackles per game), Isaah Yeo (43 tackles a game and a tackle efficiency of 99.5%) and Jake Trbojevic (43 tackles a game as well) - and contenders with everything to play for.
Cameron McInnes might be missing a couple of front teeth but he’s featuring on the data-based bench courtesy of his consistency in a high-flying Sharks side. Almost 40 tackles and 113 tackles a game, with a couple of tackle busts to boot mount a compelling case alongside his ability to play hooker and lock.
Mitch Barnett’s career-best form - 138 run metres and 31.5 tackles a game - earns him a start alongside his old Knights teammate Jacob Saifiti, who in all honesty is battling for a third Origin start.
Across the board, the nerds and their numbers have delivered a 1-17 of talking points to shout back and forth over, which really is what Origin is all about anyway.
And what does AI say?
And just for fun, we asked ChatGP: Who should the New South Wales rugby league selectors pick to play the Queensland rugby league team in game one of the 2024 series?
“As of my last update, I don’t have specific information on individual player performances or the current state of the New South Wales rugby league team for the 2024 series. However, traditionally selectors consider factors like recent form, fitness, and experience when picking a team for such a significant event. They would likely assess the players’ performances in their respective club competitions leading up to the series, as well as any previous State of Origin experience and their ability to handle the pressure of such a high-stakes match.
“Some key positions to consider would be the halves pairing, the hooker, the fullback, and the front-rowers. Additionally, versatility and the ability to cover multiple positions can be valuable assets in a State of Origin series.
“Ultimately, the selectors would aim to assemble a balanced team with a mix of skill, experience, and raw talent to take on the Queensland rugby league team.”
As they say in the classics: “No shit, Sherlock.”
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