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The 15, and beyond

The defeat for re-election of Idaho Senate President pro tem Chuck Winder in the recent Republican primary was widely described as an upset. And it was, in the sense that it was widely unexpected.

But it also was very much of a piece with the results overall in the Idaho primary. Those include the ouster of 15 legislators by voters of their own party.

If attention has focused a bit on Winder, who has been a prominent figure in Idaho public life for more than three decades, one reason may be that few people seem to know much about the man who prevailed in that race, Josh Keyser.

He didn’t, in the campaign, seem to establish a clear identity. A basic resume is out there, but you get little feel for who the guy is or what he would do in office: His campaign seemed more an effort to say as little as possible and keep it generic and inoffensive. His website describes his vision as: “Protect our Rights. Empower the Family. Strengthen Idaho.” The site doesn’t even have much of anything to say about the veteran legislator he was trying to defeat. Keyser almost comes across as a noncombatant.

Nor did his campaign seem overwhelming: Current finance reports show he raised $28,081 and spent $12,212, in total. Winder raised several times as much.

Cutting to the chase: In political terms, Keyser is a cipher. He didn’t win, really. Winder was beaten, beaten up, mostly by forces - contributing mass money, mailers, videos and more - far outside his district.

Why this happened is a complex story. One immediate trigger concerned some activity, likely obscure to most Idahoans, from inside the Senate Republican caucus. Some months back, some members of his caucus (from the extreme Freedom Caucus wing) started firing shots at other Republican legislators from outside their group. Winder, whose job as pro tem implicitly includes keeping the caucus membership at peace, warned them that was improper behavior for a legislator (as it was), and he exacted punishment through changes in committee assignments. That in turn led to the Idaho Freedom Foundation and related groups aiming fire at Winder, and assembling the artillery from all over the place. This was, of course, just one incident; much more background underlay it.

Around and around it goes. Idaho politics now is not about what you want to do (or even stop doing) or what kind of track record you may have (living in a district for mere weeks or months now seems qualification enough to represent it). What’s relevant: Who’s your enemy? The needs and interests of the state and the people in it barely enter in.

That’s story of the Winder race maps directly or indirectly onto many of the other 14 ousted legislator taxes, and the half-dozen or so close calls.

The 15 Republican legislators defeated this month join 20 defeated two years ago. This is beginning to look like a pattern. (A side note: The one major region in the state where this dynamic seemed not to hold was eastern Idaho, near Idaho Falls. It’d be worth sussing out why.)

And that’s especially true when the voter turnout was notably low, as it was in this election.

Voters in Idaho are better off turning out in larger numbers for primaries than for generals, because most of the real decisions now seem to be made in May rather than November. Barring unexpected developments in the next few months, the path to the next legislative term looks clear: A couple of additional steps toward the extremes, and passage of some measures (school vouchers comes to mind as one possibility) that were barely stopped last time. Idaho education policy in particular is likely to head toward the extreme in the next term.

Why did the Republican voters of Winder’s district choose to kick him to the curb? Was there an actual reason that relates to what the legislature should do? Or was it about power plays and the artificial generation of voter anger?

See you in November.

 

Read Write Own

Most of what I have heard about blockchains has been in the context of cryptocurrency - a topic notable in the last few years for associations with uncertainty and untrustworthiness. (That sound of dismissal isn't entirely warranted, though cases like that of Sam Bankman-Fried give it some rationale.) But what about the technology underlying it? Tech is just a tool, right? Tech can be used for all sorts of things, good and bad.

Chris Dixon, a tech investor and author of the new Red Write Own, makes a strong case that the underlying computing elements - the most key component of which is something called a blockchain - could become the lever for solving many of the worst current ailments of the internet as we know it. And more than that, a sizable slice of the problems of many societies around the world, not least ours.

The book is not large (the main text of the print book I read is just 230 pages) but it is tightly written and argued, and written in plain enough English than non-tech people can follow it regularly. For the most part, you'll understand his points, his concerns and his proposals, reasonably well if you're an active user of the net ... as most of us are these days.

He begins with a quick review of the last 30 years or so if the online world and how it developed into the one we know, transitioning from a system dominated by protocols (meaning, generally, e-mail, websites and a few others services) to one dominated by a handful of tech giants like Facebook, Google and Amazon. Those mega-companies, he points out, started out by building networks of users, which became enormous with time, and transitioned from an effort to add people and groups to their networks, to trying to squeeze as much revenue as possible out of them (the "take"). So much money is being pulled in this current extractive phase, he says (and he's clearly right) that much of the commerce and creativity of our world is being diminished, and our society and democracy are being weakened.

Dixon's answer to this and other related problems relates in large part to blockchains, a subtly different software technology which relies on strict usage rules and open-access, along with openly-accessible information, to do many of these same kinds of things our other networks (like those of the tech giants) have been doing, along with some new things that might be added to the mix. Blockchains could be controlled by users rather than a small group of owners, Bixon points out, and while the operators of them can operate profitably, either as profit or non-profit entities, the built-in incentives would provide for a far smaller take, and few fewer cumbersome and restricting rules, than the current regime imposes.

The possibilities seem large,  and by the end of the book he even offers plausible ideas for how we might more effectively cope with such challenges as artificial intelligence and deepfakes. Dixon's approach is basically a solution through ongoing research and business development, but this is no libertarian tract: He sees a need for regulation and guardrails as well. It is in all a broad-minded view of how we might work out way out of what seems a muddy swamp.

If you get concerned and depressed at times about where the internet, and our tech future, may be headed, pick up this book. The solution it offers may not materialize (Dixon describes himself as optimistic but not a prognosticator), but it could. And it demonstrates the way answers to our problems may be developed, possibly in the not too distant future.

Opting for the familiar

After all the primary campaign season drama this year, most of the Oregon results tended toward the familiar in both parties.

And most races weren’t even close.

On Tuesday, Oregon had two relatively critical Democratic primary contests, in ways important both locally and nationally that  collected plenty of attention in the state and beyond. Both were resolved sharply, by strong margins that reflected the sensibilities of Oregon’s – and the nation’s – Democratic leadership.

In Oregon’s 3rd House District, seven candidates were competing to replace veteran U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer, but the race clearly was going to come down to two: state Rep. Maxine Dexter and former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal. Dexter has been a productive legislator working smoothly with Democratic leadership, while Jayapal was perhaps best known as the sister of a member of Congress from Seattle, U.S. Rep. Pramila Jayapal, who is one of the most visible and sometimes controversial progressives in the House.

Dexter got the mass of support from contributors and Democratic-leaning organizations, and her lopsided win – about twice the number of votes Jayapal received – looked like a clear demonstration of Democratic organization clout.

In Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, one of the half-dozen top battleground districts nationally this year, the Democratic nominee from two years ago, Jamie McLeod-Skinner, faced state legislator Janelle Bynum, each seeking to take on first-term Republican incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer. McLeod-Skinner only narrowly lost to Chavez-DeRemer last time, and the primary contest was widely described as competitive, with the sole public poll giving Bynum a slight lead.

On election day, Bynum’s lead wasn’t slight at all. In results on Tuesday night, she led McLeod-Skinner in five of the six counties, with only one vote reported in that race in Jefferson County, and that was for McLeod-Skinner. Overall, Bynum led by more than two to one. Some of that probably had to do with negative headlines for McLeod-Skinner in the last few months, and reports that Republican-backed money was supporting her in an effort to elect a weaker candidate in November. But the larger factor may have been a solid weighing-in of the Democratic establishment, from Gov. Tina Kotek on down, on Bynum’s behalf.

If one trend line ran through most of the notable Oregon primary results on Tuesday, it might have been the absence of revolt against the powers that be.

In the top statewide race, for Secretary of State, speculation had run in favor of the well-established Treasurer Tobias Read, who two years ago had experience running for governor. On Tuesday, he drew a stunningly wide lead, winning about 70% of the vote in the Democratic primary over his chief opponent, Democratic state Sen. James Manning. The margin of the Democratic legislator seeking to replace him, state Sen. Elizabeth Steiner, against a candidate who had run for the office twice before, Jeff Gudman, was even larger – 77%.

The familiar and the established mostly did well on the Republican side, too. In the 1st Senate District on the southern Oregon coast, a determined effort to take out incumbent Sen. David Brock Smith fell far short as he received twice the vote of the nearest of his three competitors. In the 2nd Senate District in Josephine and parts of Douglas and Jackson counties, Noah Robinson, the son of incumbent Art Robinson, decisively won the nomination for the seat there. And in the 28th Senate District in Klamath County, Diane Linthicum, the wife of Dennis Linthicum, the incumbent and the Republican secretary of state nominee, was winning easily.

The most striking but not surprising result in the whole state may have been in the 12th House District in rural Lane County, where incumbent Rep. Charlie Conrad, a Dexter Republican who split from his party on a vote concerning abortion and gender care, was getting only about a fifth of the vote against Darin Harbick, a challenger opposing him mainly on that issue.

There, as elsewhere, the message seemed to be: Stick with the party line or it may line up against you.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

 

Something’s happening

As a curmudgeon of the first order, I've found a lot to bitch about over the last few years.  "Complaint fodder" has been growing and there's been a seemingly endless supply of division and political chaos.

Legally and morally.

But, from out here in the oft-soggy Northwest, it looks, smells and sounds like we may be moving slowly - very slowly - to better social and political climes.  Maybe.

First, it was the federal election results of 2016 and 2020.  Little noticed were some significant shifts toward the middle in many state and local government outcomes.  Not so widely noticed, yet there seems to be apparent movement toward a return to SOME political moderation.  In SOME places.

Another example, Faux Nues.  Ratings for Murdoch's crew of vocal truth-deniers have been slipping downward.  Still ahead of CNN but, even MSNBC periodically beat 'em over a few weeks, especially in the 25-45 age group advertisers want to capture.  First time.  Not to say viewers are suddenly coming to their senses and are tired of being lied to.  Just interesting.  A small thing.

Example: Staying with the broadcasting arm of the GOP, several of its major blights on respectable journalism have stepped over some publically unacceptable lines.  Carlson, Pirro, Hume and Hannity have finally come under fire for bending facts into unrecognizable garbage.  Carlson and Hannity in particular, got so far out in right-right field that even Fox had to disavow their despicably racist words.  Public rejection by your own family.  My, my. Then, Carlson "moved on."  Further right.

Example: recent polling.  The most reliable numbers crunchers show fewer people identifying as Republicans or Democrats.  Those calling themselves "independents" or "unaffiliated" are becoming more of a factor.  A sign many Americans may be saying "A pox on both their houses" and they're not feeling "hidebound" either way.

Deeper down in the numbers, you'll find small movements toward more moderate views on issues.  A good thing.

Example: the Evangelical crowd is being taken less seriously than it was a few years back.  There's much more writing and speaking by some of the major respectable Conservative voices disavowing the Graham's, Robertson's, Perkins' and others of their ilk.  What once appeared to be a solid block of support for anything Republican - far-out Republican - is showing large, significant cracks.

Example: CPAC  - an annual function of the American Conservative Union.  Once a rather thoughtful gathering of conservative voices, it has become a hate-filled few days for extremists of every stripe.  In recent years, for example, conditions especially have been pretty gross with the Nazi Party, KKK and other dangerous cretins having large, formal, prominent displays of their "wares" at GOP meetings.  The speaker's roster, which used to feature Repubs like Bill Buckley and George Will has devolved into hate-mongers Michelle Malkin, Sebastian Gorka and a couple dozen lesser-known trash talkers.

But, the best news coming out of the CPAC political dung heap was that attendance for their "conventions" was down.  Way down.  TV news shots of the seated faithful showed lots and lots of empty chairs. Vendors complained their "take" on marketing was also down.  Even the "Lock Her/Him Up" pullovers weren't selling like they used to.  All good news.

There are other bits and pieces of change.  Of possibly more moderate news on our horizons.  Even in such a formerly solid bastion of the Republican caucus in the Senate, a few voices - and more importantly,  a few votes - have indicated some members are willing to say "No" at times.  Probably not enough to override a veto but enough to break a stranglehold and allow some more moderate legislation to pass.

As younger voters become more of a factor in elections - as more Black and Hispanic voters get involved - we're seeing real political change.  The declining numbers in self-identified party affiliation will also play a part.  More change there will be.

It's not time to breakout out in strains of  "Happy Days Are Here Again" but, maybe, we could just hum a few bars.

 

Fill out your ballot

When my Oregon primary election ballot arrived in the mail and I unfolded it, my first thought was: This won’t take long.

My second thought was whether to bother. But that stray idea passed quickly.

My ballot, slight as it is, does matter, and even when it’s not packed with critical inflection points, the decisions on it can have real impact.

I’m in the largest plurality of Oregon voters, those registered as not affiliated with any party. Since a lot of the interest in primary elections concerns choosing party nominees, especially for major parties, I’m a non-participant in a lot of the action this season.

That’s worth noting because 1.1 million Oregonians are in my boat, considerably more than the next-largest group, the Democrats, fewer than a million. Many registrants of the smaller parties have little role this season, either. State law bars all of those people from joining in critical partisan primary contests: You have to be registered with a party to obtain a ballot with those choices.

For unaffiliated voters, a ballot looks like this: Some local government races and some judicial seats, mostly uncontested, and occasionally a ballot issue. In Oregon, the highest-profile of those may be the bond ask for the Portland zoo.

In the case of the uncontested offices featuring only a single name – the norm for most judicial and many local government offices outside the metro areas – a voter can withhold support from a candidate but realistically has little chance of affecting the outcome. For many unaffiliated voters, ballot issues are the main reason to cast a vote at all.

Oregon is one of only nine states to limit primary participation, and citizens here have brought forth a number of proposals to open its primary elections to those not registered with a party.

Still, the group All Oregon Votes, which has backed open primaries in Oregon and filed an initiative proposal for the 2024 general election, said in February, it has “paused work on 2024 Initiative Petition 26 to focus on more promising strategies to enfranchise voters in Oregon.” Those other strategies weren’t specified. The group, which has been trying since 2020 to put a measure on the ballot, has run up against conflicts with state officials over ballot titles, which the group said left the intent of the measure unclear for voters.

Meanwhile, many major party members are seeing slim ballots, too. The presidential nominating process, which often drives primary turnout in presidential years, is effectively done – long before Oregon voters got a chance to weigh in. Only one Republican, Donald Trump, is even on the ballot, and the Democratic contest is just about over as well.

Two congressional districts do have heated primary contests, those being in the 3rd and the 5th districts, both on the Democratic side. The race in the 5th District does have serious national implications, because in the fall it may be among the handful determining whether the Republicans or Democrat will control the U.S. House next term.

And legislative primary contests are sprinkled all over the state. But for many voters, there’s still little there.

So why bother, especially for unaffiliated voters??

In my case, the ballot has several unopposed judicial races and several unopposed local offices – little to debate about there. But the main reason I wasted no time filling out and turning in the ballot was the one race on it which is contested.

This is a battle, a real political knock-down, for one of the three Yamhill County Commission seats. The incumbent seeking re-election is locally controversial enough to have been the subject, a few years back, of a recall attempt. She prevailed then, but not by much, 52.5% to 47.5%, and she hasn’t won office by much more than that.

Many commission races in Yamhill County in recent years have been similarly close. And this season’s contest, in which she has two challengers, may be another. One of those contenders hasn’t been seriously active, but the other has been running a highly energetic campaign, and local conventional wisdom is split on the probable outcome. As in many Oregon counties, the seats are officially non-partisan, but they party they belong to is an open secret.

In theory, it’s a race that could go down to a single vote. I wouldn’t want it to go what I consider to be the wrong way because I failed to vote.

Local Oregon ballots have lots of individual races like that, and they all matter.  So, look closely at your ballot. It may offer more chances to make a difference than you initially think.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

The ultimate voter guide

Political contests in Idaho seem to be getting uglier with each passing year. The closing of the Republican primary in 2011 deserves a great deal of the blame. Extremist candidates found that they could win by brandishing fake culture war issues against traditional Republicans who were interested in solving problems. Stoking fear and outrage produces more votes than pledging to fix roads and schools in a low-turnout closed primary.

The flood of money into Idaho from out-of-state dark money interests that favor extreme candidates has added to the problem. One such group, Maryland-based Idaho Federation for Children PAC, has spent $228,000 in the GOP primary, most of it in negative campaigning against three highly-regarded House Republicans–Richard Cheatum, Kenny Wroten and Melissa Durrant– who opposed using taxpayer money for private and religious schooling.

Another extremist group, Texas-based Young Americans for Liberty (YAFL), has been one of the biggest spenders in Idaho elections over the past few years. An affiliated PAC, Make Liberty Win, has made false claims against traditional Republicans, including Senators Chuck Winder and Treg Burnt and Rep James Petzke. Winder expects the PAC to spend $500,000 this election cycle, supporting extremist candidates and trashing their opponents. Columnist Randy Stapilus wisely recommends that this type of garbage be disposed of with the other trash.

One tactic of YAFL is to finance waves of door knockers who pass out scurrilous handouts, trashing responsible legislators. They may appear to be dedicated volunteers, but are often college students earning up to $4,160 per month, plus gas and housing. It might be revealing for recipients of the handouts to ask the door knockers where they are from, whether they are being paid and who hired them.

In this day and age, when voters are often unable to get reliable information about candidates on the ballot, where can they turn? The closure of so many weekly newspapers and the decline of daily papers has dried up traditional sources of news for many. The explosion of social media has flooded voters with information, but a great deal of it is unreliable. What is a voter to do in getting the information necessary to make an informed choice?

All is not lost. Despite the fact that most daily papers in Idaho have fallen on tougher times, their reportage on political candidates is still generally reliable. What information is available on our TV stations is good. New publications like the Idaho Capital Sun and Idaho Education News (IEN) are doing a fine job of political reporting. I have been impressed with IEN’s voter guide. The Idaho League of Women Voters also has a trustworthy voter guide.

The latest addition to reliable information on political candidates is Take Back Idaho’s comprehensive voter guide. Take Back Idaho (TBI) is a non-partisan group of Idahoans dedicated to removing extremism from Idaho politics. TBI does not endorse candidates in its voter guide. The guide lets primary election candidates speak for themselves. It contains news reports, links to candidate websites and information furnished by and for candidates. The purpose of the guide is to provide information to allow voters to judge candidates based upon what they say and do, regardless of what dark money interests may say about them. To get a flavor of the guide, I would recommend checking out the Jim Woodward vs Scott Herndon contest, which appears first in the publication. And make sure to get out and vote in the May 21 primary.

 

Few common threads

Republican primary contests this year in many states – Washington and Idaho for two –  have evolved into battles between traditional conservatives and more uncompromising activist and often Trumpist groups.

Oregon is mostly an exception.

The state has no lack of Republican primary contests, five in the state Senate and 10 in the House, with about four times as many House seats are up for election. While some candidates identify themselves along the lines of former President Donald Trump, few do so very explicitly.

The reasons why aren’t clear. The state’s late presidential primary, which will feature only Trump on the Republican side, may have lowered the attention level a little in Oregon at the local level. Maybe, too, Oregon’s nature is more inclined to focus on local concerns and individual personalities.

Oregon’s Republican contests seem at least to have evolved that way.

That holds true for the statewide and ideologically-oriented Republican Unity Caucus PAC, which has become involved in Republican primary contests, one of the few state organizations to do so. Its finances are not massive, with it reporting so far less than $17,000 in either contributions or spending for the primary. It describes itself as “uniting activists and legislators to empower the Freedom Movement in Oregon,” and does not get much more specific from there, freeing it to act in the primaries however seems desirable.

Its most visible activity concerns incumbent Republican Sen. David Brock Smith of Port Orford, who is facing three primary opponents for his southern coastal seat, with logger Todd Vaughn winning RUC backing. The PAC’s blasts at Brock Smith led to cease-and-desist letters from Brock Smith’s attorney with indications that he might sue over what he described as false campaign statements. The complaints against Brock Smith are hard to parse, but seem to argue that he was too supportive of Democratic initiatives and might have been helping a Chinese businessman.

Brock Smith describes himself as a staunch conservative, and RUC leader Ben Edtl said his group is “bound by America First values.” The group’s core complaint against Brock Smith remains unclear.

RUC also weighed in on the Republican primary in House District 51 in Clackamas County. With no Democrats filing, the seat will go to Christine Drazan, who represented the area before resigning when she ran for governor in 2022, or James Hieb, who was appointed to replace her and now is the incumbent. The PAC described Drazan, the Republican governor nominee two years ago, as “supported by special interest groups who want to continue their agenda of socializing housing and health care and continue to undermine election integrity and local democratic control of our school districts.” Hieb, it said, had begun his legislative term similarly but then “he began an assent to fearlessly representing his voters.” The reasons for involvement never get much more specific.

The Unity Caucus seems to be about as large a group as has become involved in the many Republican primaries.

In only one case among the 15 Republican primary contests was a significant policy difference between two candidates clearly central. That is in House District 12 in rural Lane County where incumbent Rep. Charlie Conrad of Dexter faces a challenge by Darin Harbick over Conrad’s  vote in 2023 for a Democratic-backed reproductive health care bill. Conrad went against his party on the bill, which sparked a Republican Senate walkout that lasted for six weeks. Harbick told the Capital Chronicle: “When I found out that my state representative (was) the only Republican in Oregon who voted with the rest of the Democrats on that bill, I was outraged because I do not believe that is what House District 12 represents,” Harbick said. “That was kind of a catalyst that put me into running a primary against Representative Conrad.”

Most of the candidate differences, however, relate more to approach to the job than to policy or even personality differences.

In Senate District 2, which includes Josephine and parts of Douglas and Jackson counties, incumbent Art Robinson was legally barred from running again, so his son Noah Robinson has filed to replace him. He is opposed by current Rep. Christine Goodwin of Canyon City. She told the Capital Chronicle:  “I filed because the threat of another Robinson was frightening to me.” She said the elder Robinson only opposed bills while she said she would compromise, when necessary, to find solutions. The thread of practical legislating against an uncompromising edge runs through several races. In the coastal House District 32, where incumbent Cyrus Javadi of Tillamook is rematched against Glenn Gaither of Seaside, Javadi talks about working across the aisle, while Gaither’s message does have clear echoes of a Trump-like view but in the context of being uncompromising.

At least one other House race is specifically shaped around the background of the incumbent, in this case the longest-serving House Republican, Greg Smith of Heppner in eastern Oregon. Challenger Raymond Akers drew on headlines about Smith’s extensive private-sector but government-related contracts, chronicled by Malheur Enterprise, and said on his Facebook page that “while Greg is out and about telling about all of his corporate endorsements (voters should) hold his feet to the fire (since) you may not see him again for many years.”

On the day after primary election day, Oregon Republicans – and political analysts – may have a hard time drawing any sweeping conclusions about what the party’s voters want. Whatever it is, apart from liking or disliking their incumbents, they won’t have a lot of room to express it on the ballot.

This column originally appeared in the Oregon Capital Chronicle.

Idaho Mother’s Day

Idaho laws are clear about being a mother in this state. So, on this Mother’s Day, let us be clear how we celebrate you.

It is simple.

We love you and cherish you. That is not in the laws, but maybe I am going out on a limb to state it is understood. Maybe we can all agree on that.

But any pregnancy you carry is clearly written in our laws. And such is the process of motherhood, isn’t it? There are women, and then there are mothers. Since we celebrate Mother’s Day in Idaho, any woman considering motherhood should know just what Idaho laws say to you.

The laws are multiple, confusing, contradictory, but ultimately clear if you believe our Idaho Supreme Court and Attorney General.

Let me summarize.

If you have a growing fetus in your womb, we Idahoans, by the laws we write, express our care for that fetus at your expense. The life you grow in your body is more valuable to this state than your health.

Maybe, if it comes down to the ultimate question, that your life will be lost for you to maintain your pregnancy, the state will allow you to save your life at the expense of the life growing inside you.

But if the condition of your pregnancy is a risk, or harm to your health, you are forbidden to terminate the condition of pregnancy, no matter the stage, no matter the circumstances.

I believe this strong prohibition has been written into Idaho law because so many conservative Republican legislators believe women kill their babies growing inside them for convenience, at their whim.

No legislator has considered or proposed a law to allow a woman carrying a malformed, doomed fetus to be terminated. If you, an Idaho woman find yourself in such a situation, Happy Idaho Mother’s Day.

You will be required to carry this fetus, this child to term and deliver it to die, maybe in your arms.

If your growing fetus was the result of a rape or incest, you may be allowed to terminate this process toward motherhood. But only if you have a police report on record that confirms these suspect allegations. Our legislators are sure women are always crying “rape” or “incest” for their convenience.

Such generous wiggle room in this motherhood process has been contested by my own State Senator. He’ll get reelected.

Happy Mother’s Day, Idaho women.

 

On the radar

Driving a few weeks ago across back roads in the Magic Valley, I was interested to see a few political signs up already, and several in a top of ticket race many people don’t have on their radar.

To the extent Idaho gets some national attention on the night of the 21st - the night the votes are counted after this month’s primary election - it could relate to one contest, not likely to generate a surprise but significant if it does.

That’s not, as it would have been in years past, the presidential primary: Republicans held caucuses back in March, and former President Donald Trump then received 84.9% of the vote, over contenders who had withdrawn (Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis). That settled the question of who would get how much of the state’s support for the Republican nomination.

Be it noted that the caucus was held at a point when Trump already had the nomination more or less sewn up, meaning there wasn’t a real contest. While he easily won the primary four years ago, when he was running essentially unopposed as an incumbent president, Trump did not win Idaho four years before that, in 2016. The blue ribbon that year went to Texas Senator Ted Cruz; Trump was in second place, about 20 points behind him.

This year, Idaho won’t provide in its primary the Haley percentage some other states have.

So whatever else we learn about attitudes of the state’s Republican voters this year is more likely to come from just down the ballot. Legislative races may tell us a lot, but keep watch too on the numbers in the primaries for the two U.S. House districts.

Not, that is, in the first district, where Republican Russ Fulcher is unopposed in the primary. (In the fall he faces Democrat Kaylee Paterson and two minor-party contenders.)

But do watch the numbers in District 2, where veteran Representative Mike Simpson, first elected to the House in 1998, does have primary competition from Scott Cleveland and Sean Higgins.

Higgins is likely to wind up in third place. He has not been especially visible, and for a congressional candidate has raised little money, often a good tipoff to political strength.

Cleveland is a little different. He ran for the U.S. Senate as an independent in 2022 (losing to Republican incumbent Mike Crapo), pulling 8.4% of the vote - not bad, actually, as independents go - and raising about $104,000, also not bad for an independent.

That independent run is likely to weigh against him this time, as he contends to be a Republican standard-bearer for Congress. The money he has raised so far, roughly in line with the amounts he raised last time for the Senate race, is pretty good for an outsider but way behind what established incumbent Simpson can do and has done.

In all, Simpson, who has swatted back lots of primary challenges over the years including a serious one just two years ago, is unlikely to lose, and it’s not likely to be close.

But the unexpected does happen from time to time in elections, and even if Simpson wins, his percentage could be - depending on the attitudes of the district’s Republican votes - small. If it’s either unusually small or unusually large, some kind of message can be drawn from it.

Why might Simpson be harder pressed this time? It could relate to his uncomfortable relationship with the Freedom Caucus side of the House Republicans, and his overall centrist - in the context of House Republicans - role in the House. Or, if he’s not centrist enough for you, there are two challengers who can serve as a repository for that opposition. This kind of calculus is what can make election analysis so tricky.

Or, of course, Idaho might be more or less ignored by the national news coverage on May 21, and probably you can count that as the most likely outcome.