A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Championship Playoffs 2018

This might be my last post, because no one I know and care about really gives a shit about football.    This isn't complaint, it's a matter of return on investment.  I'm not going to continue to post at a website that doesn't get read.

Since I almost forgot to even post this, I will not belabor the points.

AFC:

Jacksonville (3) at New England (1)

Much has already been written about how the Jacksonville defense could, like the Broncos in years past, could cause all kinds of trouble for Brady.  It won't matter.  The 'Goat' doesn't matter.  Belichick and the officials do.  The Belichick method is to takle away the opponents strength and play to it's weakness.  The Jaguars are one good Bortles game from the Super Bowl.  All they have to do is stop Gronk.  Neither will happen in Foxborough.

Jacksonville - 6, The Hatriots - 27

NFC:

Minnesota (2) at Philadelphia (1)

The Philly defense is awesome, so very awesome.  Has the entire world forgotten that the Vikings are the number one defense in the NFL?  This isn't Keenum vs. Foles.  This is Foles crumbling against the league's best defense.  He isn't Drew Brees.  Keep that in mind.

Minnesota - 20, Philadelphia - 13

2017 Season Recap

Since I failed to do any kind of season preview, this will remain mostly speculative.  20/20 hindsight is always clearest.

Injuries:

What stands out most to me in the 2017 season are the injuries to the most key players in the game.  Injuries always effect the season as it's played out but this year just seemed, to me, to be particularly brutal.  Among quarterbacks, the best rookie QB in DeSean Watson went down in a non-game (or contact) injury.  The best second year QB leading his team to a tie for the best record in the NFL, Carson Wentz, went down to IR.  One of the very best QBs in the game broke his collar bone, Aaron Rodgers.  There was no sighting of Andrew Luck, and last year's best QB completion rated passer, Sam Bradford, played no part in the season.  The league's most dynamic receiver, OBJ, spent most of the season in rehab along with another certain pro-bowler in Brandon Marshall.  Among Tight Ends, Greg Olson spent much of the season hobbled along with Zach Ertz.  On the other side of the ball, Houston's season was completely shattered by the IR status of Mercilus and 3 time Defensive Player of the Year, J.J. Watt.  The Steeler's Ryan Shazier may be done with football entirely.  We all know that injuries affect a season's outcome.  This year just seemed more brutal than most.

Black Monday:

This was kind of anti-climatic, really.  I never celebrate Black Monday, because I hate seeing people lose their jobs.  I look for the surprises.  But this year was ... obvious?  Caldwell being fired was only a slight surprise if that.  Arians retiring was not much news at all.  The only surprise concerning Pegano was that he wasn't fired last year.  Okay, for a bit of positivity, there were two 'surprises'.  The first is that Marvin Lewis was signed to an additional 2 years in Cincy.  All the rumors pointed to his ouster.  Regardless of his inability to win playoff games, Marvin Lewis may be the best coach the Bengals have ever had, including Wyche and Gregg.  If he can clean up his team's felonious leanings, he might have a winner, but that's as much on the head office as it is the coach.  In Oakland, Del Rio was fired in favor of a HUGE contract for Jon Gruden.  This was well known before the Raiders played in week 17.  Here's the thing:  I think Gruden is overrated.  Yes, I said it.  He is a good coach, probably a very good coach.  He built the Raiders up from an above average team to a Super Bowl contender, and then left them only to defeat them with the team that Dungy Built.  Let's be clear, if Gruden had stayed with the Raiders and Dungy with the Buccaneers, Super Bowl 37 would have had the very same outcome.  10 mil/year for 10 years?  Gruden better put up Belichick like playoff numbers or he isn't worth a quarter of that.  My prediction?  He isn't worth a quarter of that.

As of when I began this post, certain things were unknown.  I was correct in a prediction I made last year, that hasn't born fruit until now. Last year  I wrote:

Recap: But was that enough for Pagano to keep his job?  Here's my first NFL conspiracy theory of the new year.  Colt's owner Irsay has made rumblings about coach Pagano and his staff, but hasn't made a move yet, as of this writing.  I don't think he will, because he's already chatting up Patriots owner Robert Kraft about a certain OC named McDaniels.  If Irsay can get a back-room stylee deal done to bring Josh McDaniels to Indianapolis then Pagano is out.  Hey, this is all just theory, because it's not like the Patriots have done the least thing dishonorable ever ...

That was in this post. 

And now it has become real.  McDaniels will take over the edjumacation of a luckless Colts team.  I expect more of the same he brought to Denver.  Early success, and then teams will begin to notice the failings on defense, and that T.Y. Hilton lines up in the slot only to run borderline legal pick plays for dirty tightends.  Frank Gore, a certain Hall of Famer, will displease 'His Nibs' and likely won't be on the Indy roster come 8 months from now.  McDaniels will have some success, just like in Denver.  After all, if you ain't cheatin' you ain't tryin'.

 

Biggest disappointments:

The No-Fly Zone.  Denver's defensive back field is one of, if not the most, talented in all of football.  This year, they gave up too many big plays at the very worst of times.  Roby, Talib, and Harris are still premier, but they got little help from coaching or from the offense keeping them resting.  Next year is another year.

The New York Football Giants.  Injuries hamstrung them.  Coaching hamstrung them more.  McAdoo's firing was about 6 weeks too late.  Eli Manning is still one of the elite in the NFL, and benching him made no sense whatsoever.  Now the Giants face a 'quarterback issue' that is completely manufactured.  Of course they need to find Eli's replacement.  But the urgency of such has left them scrambling to fix what shouldn't be broken.

League Officiating, yet again: 

The catch rule is a nightmare of complete suck, and the league seems incapable of doing thing one about it.  There is not one single person outside of the Atlantic northwest that doesn't believe that the Hatriots stole home field advantage from the Steelers..

The Cleveland Browns:

That team is loaded with young talent, from top to bottom.  They went 0-16.  This pains everyone who loves the NFL.  Yes, they are young.  Yes, they are rebuilding.  But seriously?  Winless?  I never thought or expected that it would or could happen.  I am not the only one who expected better.  Still, it is a testament to the team's resolve that Hue Jackson will return for another year.

Biggest Surprises:

The L.A. Teams.  The Rams were freed from the mediocrity that was Jeff Fisher, and they responded.  Goff was sensational and Gurley has a HOF career ahead of him if he wants it.  With no fans to speak of, the Chargers still made a powerful run at the playoffs.  Rivers doesn't look nearly as worn out as his contemporary Eli Manning.  I will not be at all surprised if next year (2018) the AFC West goes to the Chargers.

Jacksonville.  The Jags took history into their own hands and delivered.  As of the time I write this, they will play for the AFC Championship.  With Bortles, I thought they would finish no better than second in the AFC South.  Kudos to Tom Coughlin, and the entire Jacksonville organization.

My picks for this season were not stellar, but still better than most professionals.  Somehow or another, given the wacky playout of the NFL n 2017, I don't feel so good about this.

The Last Week's Picks:  8 - 8, 50%.  Overall:  169 - 87, 66%

 

Divisional Playoffs 2018

Let's face it, usually the Wildcard round is kind of a snore.  Even when the visiting (wildcard) teams win, the competitiveness just isn't there.  This year was so much different.  The Falcons completely flipped the script on the LA Rams.  Gurley couldn't get going and Goff was constantly frustrated.  Kudos to Dan Quinn, that was one helluva game plan.  Marcus Mariota, in the rarest of football events, threw a touchdown pass to himself.  But the bigger event gets lost in that moment.  Mariota took charge of the game and Lebeau's defense stymied the Chiefs.  Tennessee, more than might be recognized, owned KC.  As much credit is due the 'Sacksonville' defense, the Jaguars weakest link won that game for them.  Buffalo was defeated by Blake Bortles running for more yards than he threw.  Finally, the Saints - Panthers game was one of the very best of the year.  The two-headed rushing monster from New Orleans was stopped, and Drew Brees didn't care.  Once again, he proved himself one the most epic quarterbacks of all time.  Carolina put it on him to won that game, and he did.  That is football is we love to see.

I went 2 and 2 on my picks last week, once again proving that I shouldn't be picking Saturday games.  Still, I am compelled to do so ... so:

NFC:

Atlanta (6) at Philadelphia (1)

The Eagles should be lauded and feared in the coming years with Carson Wentz under center.  With Nick Foles, they are about as scary as a guy in a fuzzy bear suit.  Their defensive front is one of, if not the, best in all of pro football.  But the telling stat is this, Nick Foles as a starter this year has a 20 quarterback rating on any throw more than 20 yards down the field.  It is no wonder at all that they are underdogs going into the weekend.   Matt Ryan is confident, and the Atlanta defense is surprisingly good since the beginning of December.  Fletcher Cox can hold DeVonta Freeman and Devin Coleman in check, for a while.  But when the ineffective Philly offense leaves  the D on the field for more than 20 minutes of game time?  The Falcons advance.

Atlanta - 28, Philadelphia - 17

New Orleans (4) at Minnesota (2)

I love these Saints.  I really do.  This might be the upset of the week, considering that they are playing essentially indoors.  But let's be clear.  The Vikings are the best team in football right now.  They are strong on defense and unstoppable on ball control offense.  Case Keenam is looking franchise.  Still, Drew Brees is a certain HOFer.  If an upset will truly happen in these playoffs, this might be the one.  It will most certainly be the game to watch.

New Orleans - 27, Minnesota - 30

AFC:

Tennessee (5) at New England (1)

Who fricking cares.  Only two teams in the Belichick/Brady era have won at Foxborough in January.  The Ravens (twice) and the inexplicable 2010 Jets.  I hate the Patriots.  Everyone hates the Patriots, outside of of Massachusetts and the extreme North east.  This is the "if" game.  If the Titans can stop Gronk.  If the Titans can move the ball on the ground.  If Dick Labeau's defense can sack and harass Brady.  If If If.  I, and most everyone else, hope for an upset, but ...

Tennessee - 13, Hatriots - 37

Jacksonville (3) at Pittsburgh (2)

The AFC is almost boring in its predictability these playoffs.  Bortles won't run for almost 100 yards.  Bortle's won't throw with accuracy.  Pittsburgh wins.

Jacksonville - 9, Pittsburgh - 28

Wildcard Weekend - 2018

I'm still processing the season as a whole, with no time to do , so I will write more later.

8 teams are in playoffs this year that were not the last season.  Three of those are entirely different from what we saw in the '16 season.  The Saints were a team built on Drew Brees, yet this year we saw a power running game and most surprisingly a defense.  The Rams and Jaguars were '16s poster children for mediocrity.   This year's versions are frightening with the Jags sporting the best defense in the NFL and the Rams the league's highest scoring offense.  The field in the NFC is unreal in  excellence and very hard to predict.  The AFC is, in contrast, boring in that the Patriots and Steelers still have the top seeds and only the Jaguars resemble an X-factor.  The AFC playoffs I expect to be as dull as the NFC will be exciting.

NFC:

Atlanta (6) at Los Angeles Rams (3)

This is a terrible matchup for the Falcons.  The Rams methodically move the ball and rack up points.  That's what they do and all they do.  Last years Falcons might have been able to match LA score for score, but without Shanahan calling the plays and a decided lack of production on deep throws to Julio Jones, Matty Ice looks more pedestrian than he has in years.  Game management and Ryan's legs have been able to get the Falcons enough wins to make the wildcard round, but LA's defensive front seven are among the best in the league at pressure and adjusting to the run.  Ryan will have to throw his way into the next round, under pressure and outgunned by Jared Goff.   Meanwhile, Goff and Gurley will be scoring points.  That's what they do, and all they do.  Look at what they did the Seahawks 3 weeks ago.

Atlanta - 17, LA Rams - 31

Carolina (5) at New Orleans (4)

It is no joke that this game could go either way.  Any time teams play for the third time in a season, all bets are off.  The Panthers have been so inconsistent in the passing game, other than the dink and dunk and yet New Orleans in susceptible to giving up yards in chunks.  Make no mistake that Carolina is only here because of Super Cam.  New Orleans, on the other hand, is here because of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.  Oh, and that Hall of Fame lock Brees guy.  If only for home field, I have to give edge to the Saints.

Carolina - 20, New Orleans 27

AFC:

Tennessee (5) at Kansas City (4)

I am not going to dwell on what will certainly be the most boring game of the weekend.  The Titans defense is solid, but uninspiring.  The Tennessee offense is a snooze fest, except when Mariota improvises.  KC is just a well coached machine, managing their business on both sides of the ball.  They have 2 stand out featured rookies in Hunt and Hill, which will likely be the whole difference in this game.  The only drama at all is the news that Alex Smith is open to trade in the off-season, so KC will feature his skills to up value.  The other thing one can glean from the release of this info is that KC doesn't really expect top make it far in this playoff field.  The will,however, not be one and done.

Tennessee - 13, Kansas City - 24

Buffalo (6) at Jacksonville (3)

Both of these squads have had a very long wait to get back in playoff air.  The Bills ended the longest playoff drought in major sports with an ample assist from the hot-wing rewarded Bengals.  The Jags earned their spot with defense and adequate play from Blake Bortles.  And that's their problem, adequate play from Blake Bortles.  As interception happy as the Jaguars are, Bortles often seems just as happy to give the ball back to the other side.  The Bills are nothing if not opportunistic, winning several games this year with scoring defense.  However, LeSean McCoy is dinged, and that hampers the Bills game plan quite a lot.  To be honest, I think that is the hinge on which this game turns.  If Bortles plays 'adequate', Jacksonville walks away with the home win.

Buffalo - 10, Jacksonville -19