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Today

Officials met with more than 100 investors across five continents to sell its first green bond.

Investors are set to pile into Australia’s first green bond

European fund managers are backing the federal government’s plans to shed its reputation as a coal polluter, with its $7 billion bond looking well oversubscribed.

  • 51 mins ago
  • Cecile Lefort

Yesterday

RBA governor Michele Bullock. The central bank kept interest rates on hold.

Some fundies unconvinced the RBA is done with rate increases

Fortlake Asset Management’s Christian Baylis has joined a small number of economists who expect rates to rise, not fall. He says inflation isn’t under control.

  • Cecile Lefort

This Month

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock on Tuesday.

Traders trim rate rise bets on patient RBA

The markets are now pricing in just a 15 chance the cash rate will rise again this year after the Reserve Bank stood pat on Tuesday.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
The Reserve Bank is at odds with the rest of the world.

RBA’s radio silence fuels extreme rate rise bets

Traders’ bet that the RBA will lift the cash rate is fuelled by the central bank’s lack of communications since March as it undergoes sweeping reporting changes.

  • Cecile Lefort
RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Everyone calm down, inflation is not taking off again

The Reserve Bank should be alert to stubborn price pressures, but not alarmed.

  • Updated
  • Tim Hext
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Treasurer Jim Chalmers and RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Economists call for tighter immigration to help RBA’s inflation war

Economists from some of the largest banks are urging the government to restrict migrant visas to help ease the housing crisis that is pushing rents and prices of goods higher.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
Blackstone is wooing insurer’s for private credit.

Blackstone taps vast source of cash in $1.5trn credit push

Blackstone has been eagerly driving the expansion of the booming multi-trillion dollar private-debt markets. And it’s paying off.

  • Dawn Lim and Silas Brown
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell needs more eivdence before embarking on rate cuts.

Markets cheer after Fed chief rules out rate increases

Traders have ramped up US rate cut bets this year after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, but the prospect of higher rates in Australia this year is still on the cards.

  • Cecile Lefort
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is expected to signal rates to stay high or even higher for longer.

Fed, RBA to talk tough on inflation and rates

The central banks are expected to take harsher tone on tackling inflation at their upcoming policy meetings, further tempering rate cut hopes that have underpinned equities this year.

  • Cecile Lefort

April

Nominal retail sales unexpectedly fell in March.

CBA tips one rate cut this year as retail sales ease fears of a rise

Last week’s hot inflation data reignited the prospect of further rate increases, but Tuesday’s weak retail sales numbers have traders walking back those expectations.

  • Cecile Lefort and Joshua Peach
All eyes will be on the FOMC statement and any pivot from Jerome Powell.

Fed rate cut debate shifts from when toward if on sticky inflation

US policymakers are widely expected to hold rates steady at a more than two-decade high this week, so much of the focus will be on any pivot from the Fed chairman.

  • Steve Matthews
RBA governor Michele Bullock is expected to upgrade the central bank’s inflation forecasts.

RBA’s next move will still be a rate cut, say investors

Market pundits argue that interest rates are still going down, not up, because inflation is declining, albeit at a slower pace than many had expected.

  • Cecile Lefort
The Reserve Bank is determined to return inflation to its target.

Market bets the RBA will raise rates by August

Traders are ascribing a more than 50 per cent chance the Reserve Bank will lift the cash rate as early as in August to stamp out inflation.

  • Cecile Lefort
Traders see zero chance of RBA rate relief.

Traders see zero chance of RBA rate relief

The bond market has completely removed any chance of an easing in 2024, making Australia the only major economy where rates could rise.

  • Cecile Lefort
RBA governor Michele Bullock won’t be pleased by Wednesday’s inflation report.

Traders speculate RBA’s next move could be up

The Australian dollar jumped and bonds sold off after inflation beat forecasts, prompting traders to abandon almost every basis point of easing in this year’s cash rate profile.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
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Ben Picton at Rabobank warns that the RBA may not cut the cash rate.

‘Can’t rule out a further rate hike’: economists

Economists point to signs the economy is picking up, fuelling speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could lift the cash rate one more time.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
UniSuper chief investment officer John Pearce.

Sharemarket doesn’t need rate cuts for life support

Australia’s jobless rate rose less than expected as the labour force remains tight, reinforcing the case for the Reserve Bank to stay on hold.

  • Cecile Lefort and Ben Potter
Su-Lin Ong, Jo Masters and Paul Bloxham predict what will be in the budget.

What Bloxham, Masters and Ong say will be in the budget

Economists surveyed by Financial Review expect government spending in the federal budget to be aimed at struggling families, but it will be small and not inflationary.

  • Updated
  • Cecile Lefort
Angus Coote, co-founder of Jamieson Coote, says central banks will go their own way on monetary policy and not follow the Fed.

RBA might be forced to cut rates before US Fed

Experts say the Reserve Bank is still on track to cut rates this year but sticky US inflation might force the powerful Federal Reserve to delay until at least Christmas.

  • Cecile Lefort
Former US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke put it bluntly: “It’s important to have people in key areas [who] understand the details and can stand up to an MPC member and say: ‘no, you’re wrong’.”

How ‘flamethrowers’ and creaking IT burnt the Bank of England

For more than three decades, the BoE has used fan charts to visualise the uncertainty surrounding its forecasts. As Ben Bernanke pointed out, most people have no idea what they mean.

  • Tim Wallace and Szu Ping Chan