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    Interest rates

    Today

    Watch out – the bulls are running hard.

    Why bad news has the ASX bulls running

    Bad news from the job market turned a good day on the ASX into a great one. Investors are ploughing into market darlings in the firm belief that rate cuts are coming.

    • 1 hr ago
    • James Thomson
     A pool of outer-ring suburbs such as Somers in Victoria are among the newly minted top-end housing market after posting strong price growth since the onset of the pandemic, according to CoreLogic.

    Suburbs 100km from CBDs join upper echelon as prices surge

    Strong demand for stand-alone homes during COVID-19 has catapulted a string of outer and previously affordable middle-ring suburbs to the top of the housing ladder.

    • Nila Sweeney
    Jonathan Kearns says “the inflation dragon still lurks in our future”.

    RBA will ignore budget’s ‘miracle’ inflation forecast

    Former Reserve Bank official Jonathan Kearns has cast doubt on whether the budget can produce a “magical” drop in inflation beyond the short term.

    • John Kehoe
    Warren Buffett’s new position was finally revealed to markets on Wednesday night.

    How inflation relief and Buffett’s new bet gave bull market fresh legs

    Wall Street popped to new record highs on better than feared US inflation data. But there’s a big contradiction at the heart of the bulls’ outlook.

    • James Thomson

    Yesterday

    Unions to ramp up pay claims despite inflation slowdown

    Unions want to make up for “lost ground” after years of cost-of-living pressure, despite Treasury forecasts that inflation could fall beneath 3 per cent by Christmas.

    • Updated
    • Michael Read and David Marin-Guzman
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    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Wednesday, May 15.

    ‘Expansionary’ budget at odds with RBA rate push

    Despite calls for Labor to adopt a contractionary fiscal policy to complement the RBA, economists say Tuesday’s budget was likely expansionary or neutral at best.

    • Ronald Mizen
    Innes Willox (left) and Bran Black (right), and Andrew McKellar (centre)

    ‘Higher costs, more taxes’: Business warns budget could fuel inflation

    Business has warned the third Chalmers budget could add to inflation, and urged the government to rein in spending to prevent a decade of deficits.

    • Michael Read

    This Month

    The budget in five key charts

    The five key graphs to understand the government’s latest federal budget.

    • Edmund Tadros
    Australia’s debt interest cost set to surge.

    Decade of deficits to spark debt interest surge

    While Treasurer Jim Chalmers was spruiking debt in 2023-24 being $904 billion, gross debt is forecast to rise sharply in the years ahead.

    • Ronald Mizen
    Treasury says a deterioration in the labour market may force cautious households to save rather than spend looming tax cuts.

    Treasury expects unemployment to climb to 4.5pc by this time next year

    Sluggish hiring could lead cautious households already grappling with higher interest rates to save rather than spend the windfall from tax cuts.

    • Michael Read
    Joshua Phipps, owner of a wholesale blinds and shutter company in Sydney’s west, says he cannot afford wage increases in the current economic environment.

    Real wages forecast to grow by 0.5pc a year

    Workers will enjoy substantial real wage growth for three years, according to Treasury, even as pay and inflation forecasts clash with the Reserve Bank.

    • David Marin-Guzman

    $24b in front-loaded spending risks fuelling inflation

    Spending and taxing decisions in this budget will tip an extra $24 billion into the economy, jarring with the government’s claims that it is putting downward pressure on inflation.

    • John Kehoe
    Costs put on imports turn into taxes on our exports.

    Industry policy will win votes but very little else

    Why not accept the gift of China’s subsidised exports, and use the money we save to deal with our many more serious challenges?

    • Alan Mitchell
    Wages are up and employment is strong, but households are under pressure.

    Where Australians are spending their larger pay packets

    Australian household income is up, but so is spending on some undesirables. The result is what our retail CEOs are talking a lot about - shopping for value.

    • Anthony Macdonald

    Why would anyone want to invest in Melbourne’s housing market?

    Some experts are predicting Melbourne’s housing market to bounce back strongly in the next two years, but others warn about getting in too early.

    • Nila Sweeney
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    GameStop’s market capitalisation surged $US4 billion to $US9.3 billion ($14 billion) in a single session after Keith Gill’s cryptic social media post.

    Meme stock stupidity is back at the dumbest possible time

    The $6 billion jump in the value of crappy US retailer GameStop is a sign of pure speculative excess. 

    • James Thomson
    Treasurer Jim Chalmers speaking to the media on Tuesday morning ahead of delivering his third budget.

    Chalmers rejects ‘political trick’ inflation reduction claim

    Former RBA board member Warwick McKibbin levelled the claim ahead of Tuesday’s budget, while economists warned bill relief would only stoke consumer demand.

    • Ronald Mizen and Michael Read
    Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers will hand down his third budget on Tuesday.

    Rate rise still priced in despite Chalmers’ ‘optimistic’ forecasts

    Bond markets are continuing to bet that the RBA will have to lift rates this year, despite new government forecasts predicting inflation will fall faster than the central bank expects.

    • Updated
    • Alex Gluyas
    The figure, known as the ‘table of truth’, cuts through the spin and shows how the treasurer’s saving and spending decisions affect the bottom-line.

    The little-known budget figure you should care about

    The figure, known as the ‘table of truth’, cuts through the spin and shows how the treasurer’s saving and spending decisions affect the bottom line.

    • Michael Read
    The home at 21 Coventry Lane in NSW Central Coast’s Hamlyn Terrace sold at auction for $780,000, $50,000 more than the identical neighbouring property sold for in November.

    First home buyers purchase from investors in $780,000 sale

    This Central Coast home’s proximity to the M1 highway made it popular with tradies commuting to Sydney – and with rates outlooks stabilising, they were confident about buying.

    • Michael Bleby