AJ Dillon

That 3rd and 1 was so painful. I’ll probably get downvoted into oblivion but man a 250 lb “bruiser” needs to be able to pick that up, i don’t care if he “heats” up later in the year. This was a bad, bad performance by him today

I’d like to go on the official record to say this fan base has gone waaaay overboard on AJ Dillon. He has not returned his draft value, he has been frustrating, but the way people are trashing him after two games is too much.

I have a feeling that in typical fashion, Dillon will rebound to have a very solid year and this sub will be left saying shit like “well I guess bullying works!”

Say what you will about PFF, but they know more about football than 99% of us here. They rated AJ as one of the better offensive players we had Sunday, as well as they rated him highly last year: “Among 41 RBs who recorded 100+ carries in 2022, Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade.”

Additionally, our run blocking has been shit. “Despite running behind an O-line that ranked just 22nd in PFF run-blocking grade, Dillon finished fifth in Football Outsiders’ RB success rate (57%) and 14th in Football Outsiders’ effective yards (949) – compared with 27th in actual rushing yards.” (2022)

I’m summary, I think this sub is being highly reactionary. Dillon is a solid player and he’s gonna have some big games this year, just as he did last year.

As a side note: he was being drafting in the same round as Chris Godwin and Sun God.

He had a 5th round ADP, and he’s performing like a handcuff.

Obviously, this was in the range of outcomes.

But the notion was that Aaron Jones would transition to more of a receiver role, and Dillon would get more work as a pure RB with goal line carries.

As of right now, it seems Dillon is a bust for his ADP, and should’ve gone in the 9th round.

He seems to only have value at this point if Jones gets injured.

What are we doing with him?

I know he had a rough season and a lot more downs this year than ups. But I really really liked his play yesterday. Obviously he is not a top tier rb but he balled out yesterday when we needed him to.

My man AJ Dillon stepped up in a big way yesterday.

Rushing: 14-43

Receiving: 3-38

Against that defense?

Not too shabby!

People can hem and haw about YPC and shit like that all the livelong day, but what I saw yesterday was a man who came into Detroit and did what was needed to help his team win.

He took care of the rock and also jumped over a mf…

1. In the first half of the year (weeks 1-8), the Packers leaned much more heavily on Aaron Jones than AJ Dillon:

   • Outside the red zone, Jones had 76 rushing attempts to Dillon's 58

   • Jones had 33 receptions to Dillon's 10

   • Between the 20 and the 10, Jones had 15 rushing attempts to Dillon's 6

   • Between the 10 and the 5, Jones had 6 rushing attempts to Dillon's 3

   • Inside the 5, Jones had 7 rushing attempts and 3 TDs to Dillon's 1 attempt and no TDs. Jones also had two receptions on two targets for 2 TDs inside the 5, while Dillon had 0 targets

2. The Packers also spread the ball around more near the goal line in the first half the year:

   • Of the Packers' 25 plays inside the 5, they had a pash-rush ratio of 15-10

   • Those 15 targets were spread among 8 players

   • Besides Randall Cobb's (likely outlier) 6 targets, no player received more than 2 targets inside the 5

   • Davante Adams had two targets, catching them both and scoring TDs on both catches.

3. In the second half of the year (weeks 9-17), the Packers changed their gameplan and started utilizing Dillon basically equally to Jones (all stats exclude week 11 when Jones was out):

   • Outside the red zone, Dillon had 65 carries to Jones's 62

   • Jones had 19 receptions to Dillon's 17

4. The one area where Jones and Dillon didn't have nearly equal utilization in the second half, however, was inside the red zone. The Packers completely reversed course and relied almost entirely on Dillon:

   • Between the 20 and the 10, Dillon had 13 rushing attempts to Jones's 3

   • Between the 10 and the 5, Dillon had 6 rushing attempts to Jones's 2

   • Most importantly, inside the 5, Dillon had 10 rushing attempts and 4 TDs to Jones's 1 attempt and 1 TD. Dillon also had one reception on one target for a TD, while Jones had 0 targets

5. Leaning on Dillon heavily was part of a change in their offensive strategy inside the 5:

   • Of the Packers' 22 plays inside the 5, they had a pash-rush ratio of 10-12

   • Those 10 targets were spread among 6 players, but only one player received more than 1 target

   • That one player was Davante Adams, whose 5 targets represented half of all pass attempts inside the 5

   • Adams scored 3 TDs on those 5 targets, all of them on plays that started from inside the 3 yard line

6. Without making any other adjustments for usage over the course of the entire last season, if you simply took Dillon's scoring work inside the five during the second half, and said that he received the same usage during the first half, his 5 additional TDs would've made him the RB13 in standard leagues and RB12 in half- and full-PPR leagues last year.

7. If you also make the reasonable assumption that Dillon would get just two of Adams's five vacated TDs from inside the five last season, he would've finished RB10 in PPR, RB9 in half-PPR and RB8 in standard leagues last year.

8. From weeks 9-17 last year, Dillon was the RB9 in PPR, and RB8 in half-PPR and standard leagues.

9. AJ Dillon is currently going as the RB23 in standard, RB23 in half-PPR, and RB25 in PPR leagues.

AJ Dillon is one of those guys I believe to be massively talented. He showcased his talent last night with a impressive performance of 2 touchdowns and over 120 scrimmage yards.

Now I’m not saying Dillon is better than Aaron Jones or anything but with Jones most likely missing some time Dillon will receive the volume he’s been slowly stealing from Aaron Jones all year.

I believe Dillon will be more valuable than what Aaron Jones was up to this point. IMO he’ll be a top 10 rb as long as Jones is out. Possibly even top 5. What do you think?

There is alot of hype suggesting charbs will take walkers role blah blah blah. Is this situation not exactly similar to the jones/dillon situation. Jones was a 5th round pick and dillon has yet to beat him out 3 years later...

Charbs doesn't even grade up to Dillon as far as combine results links above will prove this. Don't listen to the sell walker news. Walkers owners should be trying to buy charbs

Futher evidence, jones make up is similar to walkers and dillons makeup is similar to charbs